Topic: Prediction, Gox' dont go to US, Don't into Coinlabs, Accounts frozen. Good news (Read 2875 times)

The CNY govt has been very good an controling RMB value

all they have to do is set up some where, or multiple places, where USD can in volume, easily and reliably be traded for BTC.

This wont let RMB in easily, they can crack down on that, and USD not really able to be used in CNY

But I see your point.

The only thing this guarantees is that they lose control over their own money getting in and out.

I think the strategy you're suggesting is that the Chinese will allow Bitcoin to be adopted, possibly even go as far as to promote it. Then they'll hope that Bitcoin does well. Then they'll hope that US citizens will be encouraged by that success alone and adopt Bitcoin as their main form of currency. Then they hope they'll transfer that wealth elsewhere. All the while hoping that Bitcoin does collapse for a myriad reasons.

Seems an unlikely and unreliable strategy to me and a very high risk one at that.

There's a much better chance that they'll just lose control of their own currency than they will reduce Dollar hegemony by any significant amount.

There are lots of more effective and reliable ways of reducing Dollar hegemony that don't require giving their citizens fuller and less transparent control to their own wealth.

Basically they just have to lend it tacit support so money can get in an out, especially or mainly USD

I'm not sure I follow you and I'm not sure you've addressed the issue of how the Chinese expect to use Bitcoin to undermine the US. Perhaps you were just talking in general?

without the reserve currency status, the US would be unable to function as it could no longer underwrite its debts ad infinitum. Essentially their  money would be no good to buy things with. The only thing holding China back is it is trying to unwind its huge US$ and export position but before this happens it has to solve the labor/employment export to US issues. As China moves to a middle class/services economy, it will be less dependent on straight exports for large employment. This will take a lot of the sting out of this export/USD issue. As it stands now China is a bundle of areas just ready for  serious civil strife if their was serious economic problems.

Ultimately China is on the rise because it is putting huge amounts of infrastructure in the ground, and up skill-ing the average Chinese Citizen. For example the US has done nothing like the high speed rail project,  in recent history, about 1/2 Trillion to 1 Trillion in one civilian project, by 2020. The US is sitting there suing anything that moves, pretending it in some form free, (and this is genius) you see they sell and citizens buy that the are free so it's their fault. Chinese citizens know it's the Govt's fault.

Don't get me wrong, I think the US is far preferable in many respects to any alternatives, I also think however there is [by the US] a grasping at straws, projecting with hostility with a ever increasing bureaucracy of alphabet agencies seeking self justification by action, a Justice system that is frankly not only a mess but not available to the poor, or even middle class, massive military spending. In some ways becoming almost what brought the USSR down.

There has to be some serious revision access to opportunity of work and wealth.

Inmho The critical area is the state licensing system to educational bodies as the means of access to production and mass exclusion that causes and the interest groups that fosters. This single issue cuts across almost every country. Most will not understand what I am getting at. But maybe one day.

This doesn't sound like a convincing argument to me. They don't have to fire a shot but they're also not in a position to influence American citizens to ditch the Dollar for Bitcoin also, this would negatively impact the HUGE horde of USD they currently hold.

It just doesn't seem plausible.

I get that the Chinese government haven't said NO to Bitcoin yet but the implied support for Bitcoin is just that - implied. Just because they haven't condemned it doesn't mean they condone it.

yes they will but they have more pressing concerns with the USD as the reserve currency, and the military encirclement that is going on. Here is a quick way to defeat the US without firing a shot, make their currency worthless as a means to pay armed forces

Given her cheap mid-level skilled labor force, an nearly unparalleled supply chain, and manufacturing infrastructure, I think if China is into government-sponsored bitcoin mining, no one can challenge her status as the world's biggest supplier of newly mined bitcoins, the government would be much too happy if its production scale can be converted into its financial strength. It's true that no one can control Bitcoin, but China can make sure no nation can put a bigger influence then herself.

However, I do agree we could not subject Bitcoin's future to any government's whim, especially if it's China.

Surely they'll have considered this before using this strategy?

Personally, I think they've not yet evaluated the dangers. Once they see what a threat it is to themselves, they'll clamp down on it just like the US is currently doing.

my exact implication! They will believe they can control it.

If your implication is that China will seek to use Bitcoin as a tool against US control and influence, I think you (and many others are wrong).

Even if it were successful, the end-game would be that the US is left in 2nd place due to Bitcoin but now China has a greater problem of having institutionally accepted a currency they ALSO don't control.

Not sure how that would benefit the Chinese authorities in the long run so whilst they're tolerant of it now, I don't see that being the case once it's more widely adopted.

My fear is that Dwolla has been a largely headache free service that really did facilitate a huge boost to the BTC price.  Removing that forces users to either use slower (sometimes costlier) bank transfers or services like bitinstant. 

The sad fact is that the price of BTC is tied to exchanges, and the easier it is to transfer into (and yes out of) the exchanges the higher the price will be. 

TL;DR - For the time being, Money is leaving the markets and it's not coming back.

The problem is that most tax havens and other countries with strong banking privacy laws aren't interested in a high profile client such as mtgox.

Their whole point is desecration, they don't want the USA doing everything possible to pry into one customer at all costs.

Yes.


I agree.

So really, the possibilities of getting bitcoin into an international bank that won't cave to US pressure are best in China (i.e., Hong Kong).  That's what I'd be after if I were an exchange looking to get banked.

Edit having scanned
http://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Mt-Gox-Dwolla-Warrant-5-14-13.pdf
these guys are out for Blood, I would not be returning to the US, with even the slightest possibility of 5 years jail.

Ok some time ago before funds seizure, before all of the $75 M law suit,  I wrote in this forum Gox should stay away from US , due to Jurisdictional and Gov concerns.

MagicalTux, read, responded and ignored this,
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1583179 (read around and the whole thread.)

I specifically advised, look to China, which MagicalTux confirmed they had blundered into by asking some Chinese Agency was it "illegal". Further CNY based trading is openly conducted.

Tux was all happy that Japan signed up for FACTA, but this is precisely the point China refused to, Publicly. FACTA's not much help when your feeder funds accounts are Frozen

if anything I was too conservative.

We now have
[1] the law $75M suit
[2] Funds seizure (either relating to Mt. Gox or it seems specifically their account at Dwolla)
[3] State News in China producing neutral or positive reports on China,
[4] Asics knowingly being allowed to be produced in China

I understand you can still wire money to Gox JP, so okay, and it will take Japanese Co-operation to shut that down, which they maybe hesitant to do, but they are US friendly.

Again, stay out of the US until you are really really strong.

Look to countries like China.
China is actively seeking instruments of 'soft' warfare, and Bitcoin is exactly this. China is also looking for a way to unwind its USD reliance and the USD as the global reserve currency. Finally China has many people in the right places want the ability to get fund out of China.

China's not a panacea, and be prepared to be forced in partnerships, (take a good look at that English chap, "that's Shanghai" for knowing where to draw the line)

Again Gox. and others if they get big need to beef up their think tank Geo Political types. You are threatening he status quo of sovereignty. In the interim a counter power is the best insurance.

(there is an implication but let them figure it out)

I think this is really good news for BTC and CC's as
[1] Publicity
[2] The US Govt fears BTC (unless this is somehow at the request of Coin Labs)
[3] Gox will be forced to evolve or face extinction, faster
[4] New exchanges
[5] Cheap BTC now!
[6] Huge BTC price in the future
[7] No govt has been able to go after BTC/CC's directly

the Govt are like little mites take nips at the last remnants they control, while the force-field of maths protects the growing BTC/CC