Topic: [Prediction Market] CryptoForecast [CFT] (Read 521 times)
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CryptoFORECAST a prediction markets tool, which is able to anticipate a future movement of the price of BTC. It's a useful tool for the professional trader and not, the investor and any person has something to do with the sale of BTC. The application is able to predict what the price will most likely be, due to the historical data connected together with the volatility, we can position ourselves correctly on the right side of the market.
We would like to clarify that it is not an oracle, the Forecast is based on statistics, it is not 100% certain that the future projection is correct, and that the graphic structure is identical.
The application is based as well as the volatility also on seasonality and as we know the seasons are divided into 4 parts: winter, spring, summer, autumn.
Statistically we know that in the winter we are facing the cold, the cold dampens the arrival of spring bringing the summer, but it is not certain that the spring should make beautiful days, it may be happe some years where winter is prolonged for weeks, thus postponing the spring and the first initial warm.
The Forecast precisely gives us a future trend of what the price in the past has done during those specified periods of time and will give us a future projection, but it may be happen that the movement advances or postponement of a few days. As happens in nature also happens in the financial markets, we are governed by the same laws, therefore we have to adapt every day to what is really happening in the real market; News, environmental disasters, government announcements, and any other drivers are able to have enough power to move the market so "unnatural".
The engine behind the application is the PILLAR algorithm. It was created from scratch by the development team after months of testing, we had a first draft in August 2016, and we have understood the potential that can have long-term application in which we are working with data that do not reach beyond the 5 years (we could get to 7 years, but the tests were not satisfactory as the first 2 years are no reliable data as to create a projection), we think that tool could get your hands on in the years ahead, with broader historical that arrivals example to 10 years and consequently more data to be able to process by reducing the margins of error.
But now let's see how it actually works the application and set it in that way.
DASHBOARD: We have our dashboard where there will be information about subscriptions, starting date and the end, the balance of our CFT's (CryptoForecast Token), there will be a history of season tickets purchased, the BTC price in real time and more Tweet recent. There will be a form for additional requests, we will try to please all if there will be a majority.
GENERATE: The module is extremely simple, it is so intuitive that it is almost trivial, but behind this so simple mask hides the complexity of the algorithm which is the heart of the Forecast.
BTC Market: Right now the only choice is Bitstamp.
Why we chose Bitstamp? For the fact that it is the market with the best historical in USD currency. We will be implement other markets, such as EUR - CNY. If you've read our roadmap to Altcoin we will also add DASH, XMR, LTC, ETH ...
Time Frame: The choice of the time frame is important in the temporal arc base chosen, there is the possibility to choose between H1, H4,1D (1W will be implemented soon) Here we would like to add a point. There will be the possibility to add the time frame most low (5-15 min.) This feature will be implemented in the following months. There are more details in the White Paper.
Start Date: Start date, the point at which you want to start predicting Ex. 2017/3/1.
End Date: End Date, time you've set the time span of prediction Ex. 2017/3/20
History: The History is the choice of the past years that the algorithm will interrogate and process. There are currently available only two years, will be implement soon History of 3-5 years.
Taking for example the two years the application will develop according to the market, the timeframe, and the range of septate dates previously the last two years (2016-2015)
Taking for example the two years the application will develop according to the market, the timeframe, and the range of septate dates previously the last two years (2016-2015)
Use STD: This parameter is the standard deviation with the ability to activate and deactivate the prediction. The Standard deviation does not change radically the structure of prediction but it gives you a clear signal that there has been more volatility over time chosen..
CHART: From the Chart section we find the prediction that we just created.
NoSTD: (Bitstamp --> H4 --> 2017/3/1 ñ 2017/3/20 --> 2 --> No STD)
NoSTD: (Bitstamp --> H4 --> 2017/3/1 ñ 2017/3/20 --> 2 --> No STD)
It STD: This is the forecast with the standard deviation on, you can see how the graph changes but not in a radical way and tells you the days when you can expect more volatility than usual.
Comparison Forecast and real price of Bitstamp.
As we said earlier, we can not expect an identical movement whenever we create a forecast, but we can see visually that the price structure is very similar, and that we have it in advance.
It will be available a demo of three days in the period crowfunding.
I'm not part of the CryptoForecast team.
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