Topic: Predictions for the next bubble (Read 4955 times)

I'm thinking September to December but it all depends.

In my opinion it is hard to say but I feel it will be sometime this year.

+1

Saying people would just move from gold to another element because it's "the same thing" is just the same as saying people would move from Bitcoin to another crypto-currency because it's "the same thing".

Even scalability is no issue as Satoshi designed Bitcoin to be scalable for world domination. For the current uses of money, there is nothing that really needs to improve about Bitcoin (maybe the infrastructure, but that again points to the first mover advantage) apart from what has already been suggested and probably will be implemented, like removing the 7 transactions a second cap, "pruning" or "simplified payment verification".

When the bitcoin hit about the $200 was when Cypress had their problems with the banks. This was the first time the banks in europe done something like this but it is not the last. This was just a template for future bailouts. Taken this into consideration with the fact that the euro and dollar are inflationary debt currency and will inevitably lead to more debt for the banks, I believe that bitcoin will go up 10 fold again easily in the next year or 2.

Take that into consideration with the fact that mobile payments with nfc, bitcoin debit cards and bitcoin merchant software becoming mainstream and more popular, the next bubble maybe USD and euro and not bitcoin.

The diluted altcoin market is likely where (if) Bitcoin's eventual successor will appear.

Bitcoin's first mover advantage could well be the most important factor, however.

I've noticed this as well. Altcoins don't really have the same marketable ring to them that bitcoin does. But that doesn't mean someone can't still create an alternative, it only further discredits the power of the current substitutes.

I think you guys are seriously underestimating what the power of familiarity can produce.

In my opinion, the advantage of bitcoin is it being the "first" mover in becoming a mainstream crypto-currency.

I also think the name in itself is extremely powerful. It sound simple, yet invokes a sort of cyber future image.

Litecoin and Feathercoin just sound weak in comparison. (Phonetically weak)


I think we will soon start to see threads about how much is 'insert crypto currency' in BTC instead of how much fiat is BTC worth.

Lol

What the hell is a KP injection?

It's a work in progress from what I understand, one day it will all be resolved.

Buy your PPC before then.

I suspect you have a secret stash of PPC anyway.

The same way Litecoin can be inflated by other cryptocurrencies. Feathercoin does this already IMHO.

Bitcoin have supreme advantage over all other cryptocurrencies - higher security (due to higher network hash rate) and ASICs. Just think, which currency large investors will prefer? I very doubt that Litecoin !

Agreed.

So many naysayers of LTC are now silent because of the recent adoption of LTC by many. Yes it is speculative, as is Bitcoin.

Anyone claiming LTC was a scam is also saying BTC was a scam.

You are assuming they mean Litecoin is ASIC-proof. Right now it is "resistent" because there are no ASICs lol.

No one said it was ASIC PROOF.

The POS algorithm is exactly that a Sound.

The PPC POS algorithm is still broken from last December. The "fixes" implemented since have not been publicly discussed nor has it been proven to actually be a viable POS algorithm.

But you are right, the SOUND of POS system is nice...it just isn't a reality yet.

I would suggest that the hashrate gap between an optimised Scrypt ASIC and a GPU is far less than the gap between an optimised SHA-256 ASIC and a GPU.   AMD etc. have already been working on chips that work a lot like a good Scrypt ASIC for many years now.

Don't get me wrong - I'm not saying Bitcoin is anywhere near past its prime just yet.  But long term, and as things stand right now, I'd back a well configured Scrypt-based altcoin over a well configured SHA-256 based altcoin.  At the moment Litecoin looks good both in terms of adoption potential (i.e. processing speed) and long term stability (resistance to hashrate dominance). 

Just my thoughts;  not trying to evangelise or upset the applecart.  But I do sometimes fear that the Bitcoin evangelists, whom I fully support, blinker themselves to future possibilities.

Litecoin will not disrupt Bitcoin because it's not sufficiently different. It will eat away at bitcoin's market share and prove the point that there's nothing special, magic or "gold-like" about the current chain. The crypto periodic table has an infinite number of elements, and the scarcity can be customized at will: fixed number, exponential increase, just one etc. And if it's scarce, easy to transport and well distributed, then it's money. Litecoin will inflate Bitcoin, it's already a practical crypto that you can use instead of Bitcoin for many things: buy drugs on Atlantis, store in a cold wallet, send fiat around the world with high privacy etc.

Bitcoin's merchant deployment is a shallow moat: it's only a matter of time until folks like BitPay etc. add more payment options shielding away the merchant from the details of the actual crypto the user is paying with. Even homebrew Bitcoin payment systems can be easily retrofitted to support Bitcoin forks.

No it's not. It might be harder to do, but if the monetary incentives are there, ASICs will appear.

It was also GPU resistant... until it wasn't anymore.

It's more than that actually.  And some of us believe that the choice of hashing algorithm will become increasingly relevant.  Scrypt is ASIC-resistant.  SHA-256 positively cries out for ASIC mining.  That's important when it comes to securing against hashing dominance problems such as 51% etc.

There still is no alternative for Bitcoin, so pronouncing it dead at $100 is a it premature. The fun hasn't started yet.

LOL, Liteoin is no advancement. It's just a proof of work coin, very similar to Bitcoin with some tweaks in block generation times, etc.

I like the sound of the Proof Of Stake system, now that's a real advancement.

Perhaps it already has.  e.g. Litecoin

It's not in any way a foregone conclusion that Bitcoin will fail. Bitcoin could evolve into it's own replacement.

That's up to the dev team though.

This.  BTC got millions of people thinking about cryptocurrencies.  In that respect, it was a resounding success.  However, I agree that it will be replaced within a few years.  I'm not sure what will take its place, but it will feature more de-centralization, less susceptibility to KP injections and 51% attacks, and (most importantly) will be readily convertible to some useful form to give it a minimum level of value.  Currently, it requires more faith than fiat.  Time will tell.

THIS

Since the bubble burst, we are in a long term bear market, ending with bitcoin eventually going to $0. Any short term rallies from here on are bear traps, beware!

My view is with BubbleBoy, the bubble has burst and is not coming back. Sorry guys. Anyone who bought high and is waiting, reduce your holdings dramatically now whilst we are in a short term bull market.

Bitcoin has had it's glory days. It will be replaced by something.

Once again we are in a bear market now. I predict further price declines over the coming weeks and monrths with the price eventually falling below $50 and eventually to $0. However, keep watching the cryptocurrency space for something better to emerge. Bitcoin has led the path to the future, but the future will not be bitcoin.

The "bubble" I.E uptrend will resume within 96 hrs. That's my speculative prediction

Sorry, but IMO you're wrong... the alt crypto currencies won't get too far....
I'm yet to hear about ripple or LTC on TV! much less the other ones...

That's what everyone was saying when it was going parabolic on the way to $266.

Never say never, this is Bitcoin.

This is not a bubble...  266 was a bubble, that went down to 55, then 160 and back down to 79... next bubble might hit $200 and then back down to $100 sometime in July.... the patterns are there for whoever wants to be objective. I laugh at the people that want to see $40 again...

Its said the markets move by fear and greed. Given that the last bubble popped when mtgox had issues (greed turning into fear of losing money), my guess is whenever the price rises significantly again and get greedy.... I say itll take around 9 months.

My hobby: extrapolation

http://xkcd.com/605/

If it's anytime before the next reward halving, I couldn't see $10,000.  We would need some very strong news even to get near $1,000 right now, which is still a possibility.

To correctly ride the bubble on the upside I should have invested 100K last year and extract a few million dollars last month. Of course I did not do that, I only invested petty change in what I saw and still see as a high risk greater fool game. That being said, I'm happy with my analysis since 99 times out of 100 it will me keep from losing my shirt in shady investments. The bitcoin billionaires are exactly the type of suckers who usually fall for these schemes and they have little merit of being among the first suckers to head about bitcoin. Their long term success is completely dependent on the supply of future suckers.

To ride the bubble on the down slope there's no precise timing required: wait for the burst and a suckers rally, like that peaked on 160, short and hold for a few months. I can't daytrade and profit from the high volatility, but I'm pretty sure a few months from now the price will be much lower than 150$ where I shorted. Easy money.

@ineededausername: I see you found an older prediction of mine anticipating another bubble. So I'm the only poster in this thread that actually predicted something. So believe me when I tell you that this time really is different: due to significant competition and innovation spurred by Bitcoin's success, we will not see another bubble into 2015. XRP, Litecoin and many other improved currencies that are to be released in the immediate future will take care of that.

And by the way, I still don't think we're in a bubble. Just huge correction. If another 6 weeks will pass and stil downtrend, I'll accept the bubble theory. Until then, no way.

Interesting opinion. But if Spain enters crisis, so will the rest of PIGS. I think Greece will be first...

I think when the next big bankruptcy in the Eurozone happens, will see another bubble. It won't be a speculation-based bubble but more just a rapid increase in value, correcting to the next new plateau for BTC.

Hmm gonna say Spain will be the next big domino to fall in the completely unsustainable continued transfer of wealth from government social spending & taxes to the banking cartels. Gonna say Spain will be taking out further loans they can't pay, in August or September, around the that time the ASIC wave will hit, also really adding to the strength BTC.

short version:

Late August. BTC will go to 330 - 375 peak, will then go down to steady around 245 - 260, and will stabilize here on in to a steady incline up until start of 2014.

My guess would be anywhere from 6 to 18 months, peaking at anywhere from $500 to $1,500 USD.  With a crash to a bottom value of anywhere from $200-600.

And singe digit difficulty also , because all miners will turn off their rigs at this price.

We will revisit double digits within this month and single digit next month.

About 6 months, but I don't think it will be a bubble.  Near the end of the year we will see another massive uptick in the exchange rate, but it will hold.   

EARTHQUAKE.... ... ... aftershock!

Bubbles not over, still experiencing aftershocks.

every single "bear" rode the bubble up and shorted at the correct time. it's amazing at how they all get the timing perfectly right

Not going anywhere, gonna die any day now

this.

i'm sitting here with 10x the money i started with (.. ready to buy in again.. i'm in for the long run.. ..   meanwhile bringing more sepa over to bitcion and slowly bying up more ) ..

This.  A lot of people with vested interest made a lot of money during the most recent one, and it drew a significant amount of interest in the process.  Improvements in the infrastructure and lowering barriers for entry from fiat and back would go a long way.

You are confusing the genius and highly successful bitcoin cryptocurrency design with the obnoxious anarcho-libertard crowd that pushes the current chain as an investment and get rich quick scheme. I will continue to inhabit these forums because I'm a crypto and economics geek, and simply ignore the fools.

As for "investing", I rode the bubble on it's upside, then shorted like a boss from 150 down. And I'm gonna keep shorting until  the price hits 2-3x it's winter value. Now that's what I call a profitable bubble !

yes, you are correct. you should move unto a different board since you are obviously done with bitcoins

Never. The bitcoin experiment has ran it's course and will be replaced by better, more scalable, more stable, faster cryptocurrencies. Those left holding bitcoins into 2015 waiting for the next bubble will be the last suckers standing.

There is no way of telling. It may happen, or it may not happen for 10 years. Actually, after fiercly hitting $80 once more (a re-test, and not breaking it) we MIGHT just go back to a second parabolic event right away. I'm not looking at that as my no.1 scenario though, but it could still happen. These are the levels I am watching  within the big picture: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/my-take-long-term-levels-197820   .

In all: there is just no way of telling which side this market will break out to, and certainly no way of telling when the next bubble will come around.
I will just look at what the charts are telling me.

3 months.. 

there is a lot of money on the sidelines that is just itching to get back in when the market gives a clear trend up.  however, this doesn't consider the psychology of emerging markets which have seen the previous highs and see the current prices as a steal.

id say the end of this week is the bottom and we will see a $20-30 jump next week.  

new high in july

next peak in the winter shopping craze as more people use it as a payment system and gifts

ha that is an interesting question and worthy of a thread xD

Everything is faster...

22 months between June '11 and April '13.

I'll go with somewhere around six to nine months for the next.

lol

bubbles happen because of human emotion and psychology, not logical programs

I think it'll take awhile for investors to forget the last crash as they will likely sell into rallies more readily than before.  It seems possible that once investors start feeling comfortable and new investors enter the market again the VC money being poured into BTC businesses will start to bear fruit and trigger another strong build up in price.  That's my bullish hope at least, so I'll say 3-6 month range?

I wonder where the next peak will be.  $1000, $10000, $100000?

Bubble 1 peaked June 8, 2011. Bubble 2 peaked April 10, 2013. 1 year, 10 months, 2 days separate these first two bitcoin bubbles.

Therefore I extrapolate from that evidence to predict that bitcoin bubble 3 will arrive in 672 days ...

Wednesday, February 11, 2015.

We are still in the first bubble! Wake up sheeple!

2 years. 2011, 2013, 2015. Bubbles like odd years. Trust me, I'm a financiologist.

1-3 years.

Or more.




....maybe less.


 

We'll see after this bubble is finished.

September 21st

Whenever the bots decide to create another one.

Between October and December.

Its not going to happen into the downtrend is over. After that it's anybodies game. But right now I don't think putting a time on it is even possible.

2-3 months.

5 years, 2 years, 6 months, 1 month, Never

Place your bets ladies and gents.