Topic: Price and difficulty, will there be a respite? (Read 861 times)

 

Wonder where people get this soapbox. If it were always better, why would anyone mine?

I can't speak for others, but I started mining because it seemed "fun", not because it seemed like some sort of painful scheme that would make me rich. So I learned on the go, reading the forums, playing with hardware first hand, reading tons of stuff with lots of time. You can shortcut but it will ultimately hurt you.

Its ALWAYS better to buy and hold than to mine, because mining takes a long time to recoup your ROI as the difficulty is about to go through the roof. DONT base any decision on the current difficulty or price.

Now while its true, the price could go up, its very likely not going to DOUBLE soon, whereas the difficulty........

Now imagine if the price were to go down to $80 because everyone with ASICs has a bunch of freshly minted coins they want to sell, and the difficulty goes up beyond your wildest dreams? It might take 2 years to break even on a hardware investment.

Basically, with the price trending down, and with the assumption that it will slowly decline for a few months at least,
do you guys think that difficulty may let up at all?

I am not a new miner, but my tech guy recently moved on and now I am in a position of having to learn a lot about actually physically running my gear
and also about the new regulations

I feel like I basically just have a ton of homework, and I wonder how I should go about it/prioritize when it is unsure whether I will be getting screwed on both price and difficulty for a while, or whether there would be a kindof respite from the rapidly increasing difficulty as the price goes down and other miners maybe let up a bit or move on.

I have 2 BFL ASICs coming (supposedly) and I can't decide if my greater strategy should be more gear or to wait, and maybe buy and hold some more.  On a greater scale, it seems like if things let up, it will be good for a lot of newer bitcoiners to sort out exactly what they are doing and build infrastructure that will sustain bitcoin and add value in case of another surge in interest.  Do you think this is true, or do you think that the loss of momentum in the price is going to discourage that kind of activity?


On another topic, do you think it would be reasonable for me to look for a mentor when it comes to all the 'homework'?  I am pretty intimidated, especially since I don't really have a tech background.  Did most of you start from scratch, learning as you go?  Is there any established route for understanding the occult secrets of mining?  Any advice?