Topic: Price correction btc 6-12 months (Read 668 times)

Do not bother, most of the persons that make comparisons like that see bitcoin and many other things as just a spreadsheet in which they make comparisons despite the fundamental differences of the market, as you state even if we are technically comparing the market of cryptocurrencies against each other everything has change during the last 4 years, it is like comparing the stock market of today to the stock market one century ago, it simply does not make sense but comparisons will still be made.

The contrarian in me is thinking it will break out soon and this is solidification powered by Elon musk and WSB getting people into Doge and Bitcoin, however looking at the pattern of this month and thinking it may just push the higher bound of the trading range and get pushed back downwards like what happened with Gamestop and other pumped stocks and crash down to a reasonable level as it has the last few times before the real breakout.

Conflicted personally I'm not sure if there is enough built up momentum to break a new ATH relative to the rise from December.
It was only a month ago since the last ATH on January 9th and three months since we broke out from the 2017 ATH range into this one.

The odds can be wrong, Im usually leaning towards being bearish price prediction for anything medium term or 1 year (weak hands sell I always expect it) ; even I'd say 20k is less likely then 50k at this moment.     50 day average would be the downside target about now, I said that prior to it being hit recently but I still think its reasonable now as a rough boundary to negative sentiment till expectations especially change.    Bigger changes and this year long long correction idea rest on Dollar and looking at Dollar index we lack strength therefore we are not weak in BTC in expectation.   If Dollar liquidity drys up then we enter a harsher landscape and all these negatives may easily come true, its winter but its not snowing we are pretty lucky in the ongoing outlook so far.   Just normal profit taking and price cycling from what Ive seen and I still dont know or expect us to break up or down especially.

Really! I am amused by these analyzes like "buy at the bottom, sell at the top", as if someone knows in advance where these levels are. Almost everyone knows how to act, but in conditions of real trading/investing and real risks, people act quite differently.

This is wrong; i say it is wrong because in the crypto currency market there is no time range or duration for price correction; just as the price surge happened without following time frames; the price corrections will do the same. this is why you must always do your own research because even the trade charts analysis fails; trade safe

That is the difference between what we have right now and what we had in 2018 and that is a big difference that people should realize already. In 2018 we didn't had people buying thousands of bitcoins constantly without a stop, right now we have those huge corporations buying thousands of bitcoins every week amongt themselves, maybe one week company A buys, the other week company B buys but every week there are corporations buying thousands of it.

It means that price rarely ever drops, people could end up selling and getting out and sometimes numbers are higher than usual, but still whenever it goes back to "regular days" it goes up because now our normal days are bull days and that is very important, in order for bitcoin to keep still without going up or down we need a lot more people selling than we used to and that is very important.

the last days have been good for BTC. feels like 40K is more likely than bigger correction. but that's just feels

There is no guarantee of anything indeed,,, and the funny thing about people who talk a lot about cycles is they are the ones in general who get afraid when unexpected dips or crashes happen. They talk about being smart and selling near the top, but they always fall for it and get weak hands when people start dumping.

Easier analyzing than actually acting!

I am happy with the recent ATH that bitcoin achieve so far, but we want to see the next ATH from bitcoin. I am sure that the next ATH will achieve sooner or later, and with what is happening with bitcoin today, the price gives good moves (again) as the price now can back to $38k, which I am waiting for a while. So I think we will see the price touch $40k again, and after that, I think the price can rise more. I agree that bitcoin will pump and grow more, especially if many investors come to the bitcoin world.

^ Are people still did not happy with the recent ATH that achieve the market price?  Like what happened to BTC, it almost doubled compared to the last previous ATH in 2017. Probably everyone now happy if someone invested back then year 2018. However, that is not arguable where BTC was heading up, because we know that it is unpredictable. But look around, there are big investors who adopted BTC, and even big private institutions are now investing in BTC and using this, do you think we are on the hype? BTC will pump up and grow more these days because of these investors.

There's no guarantee that bitcoin or the whole crypto market gonna do the same as the cycle you pictured. Things different right now, institutional investors, adoption by large corporation, some government opens up to bitcoin and a lot more.
The crypto market is utterly unpredictable and no one know for sure, relying on past chart is just a no go for me because it could all go differently. Like how many of us never predicted for bitcoin to go up this far just within months.
You should just realize that the market could move at any direction regardless of your analyzation and prepare for that instead.

I simply mean in the loosest term possible that "bitcoin can do anything it wants" because let's face it, in the technical sense it could be 1 dollars or 1 million dollars as well, that is even wider range than 20k to 50k range, however that is "technically possible" that we do not believe in, everybody knows bitcoin is not going to 1 dollar, and it will not be 1 million dollars anytime soon neither.

Long story short I mean that 20k is (or was at the time) only 50% or so drop away, and that is totally fine, it could definitely happen, however looking at 50k at today's price you may think that is easier, but at the time it was nearly identical. When the price was 35k, it required 15k drop to be 20k and 15k increase to be 50k, and looking at everything we have I felt like it was equal chances to hit those two numbers. Now looking at it, I could say 50k is a bit more possible.

I hope that was the real bottom that we can get for this year although we're just on the 2nd month of the year. It is true that many changes have happened in the past and it's no longer the same as the old market of bitcoin that we have been with. FUD remains the same but they're mostly ignored anyway but the biggest players are the ones playing the market and manipulating it. And in PayPal, they've used bitcoin and said to be adopted it but each bitcoin bought on them, they're not real bitcoin because users can't withdraw it based on the opinion of what the other people have experienced.

Technical analysis makes a slight difference than solely relying on fundamentals and presumption based on current price movements. Though TA's focuses on past records and current movements of asset, but the chances for that specific analysis to happen is still 50/50 just like those who are just guessing the next price movements.
So, I have to agree the above comment, because no one would ever be certain on what would be the next Btc price.
We were once on the verge of lossing the $30,000 level, but It bounces back to almost $40,000 at this very moment. A lot of speculations say Btc is on its way on having the early correction.

Several factors should really be on check list first before considering on making out some presumption or whats the realistic approach neither we would go up or down.

If you do see those signs then you can have at least some idea on where the price might be going not just on presumpting that it would have the same chance of reaching neither 20k or 50k

without checking out the technicals but of course there would always be the possibility but we cant really just deny the things which are really needed for us to analyze
and not just blindly make out presumptions.

i like your comment but this part is not true. the possibility of these two prices happening in the next 2 hours are the same simply because the orderbooks are small and we can see a gigantic unexpected  volatility that could take the price to those numbers.
otherwise if we go any longer than that and in any normal situation $20k is impossible because it would be extremely below the real value of bitcoin while $50 is closer to the current value and it has a better chance of happening.

People are not really realizing what that correction was and they are still looking for a new one and that gives me a bit of a hope. That 41k to 28k was the real correction like you said and I agree with that 100% however people still think that it will be like 2018 where we fall to 3k price when in fact we are not going to be like that at all, that is the same thing as what happened nobody should be worried about another 3k. The fall from 41k to 28k is already over 30% fall anyway, and 30% fall is a HUUGE fall so you should be basically upset that we went down that low, considering a 80% fall is just being pessimistic and nothing else. I personally think we will not go under 20k for a very long time.

Bitcoin could have a correction to under 20k in the future but that doesn't mean that we are going to see that easily, sure it "could" happen but this idea that price will definitely go down and there is nothing we can do about it is wrong and it should be fought off against.

Just like how bitcoin could be under 20k tomorrow, it could also be 50k+ tomorrow, these are all possible, it could be not tomorrow but some other time but the possibility of bitcoin being under 20k and over 50k are equally the same and that is why we should not think in pessimistic tone, we should be careful about a drop and set our stop loss points just in case but that is just a way of guaranteeing that we are not going to lose too much whereas we should also have a plan to sell it when it is over 50k as well. I say put a stop loss at around 27k level and also have a sell order at 50k so that you will be ready in either case.

I doubt we could use history from now on.
A lot of changes had happened.
Before there was no Paypal to buy bitcoin that easily.
Also, there are popular names that are joining the crypto industry. So demands could get higher anytime and the volatility will stay.
IMO, the correction already happened and we have a new bottom. I hope.

We are currently in the trading range though. Hopefully, the bulls will still win on this one. If not, let's just be prepared for it by buying more.

I still am bullish biased that's why I didn't cash-out anything but from my trading account which is in USD only. I'm thinking of continuously investing more with BTC though. It's definitely ideal.

Correction had happen already, from $41k-$28k, and that is huge already so I don't think that we can fall even deep. Right now the price seems to be on a good bounce back again, $36k, so it has broken the resistance around $35k which is a big wall.

No need to cash out though, as we might go to $40k again if not then we are going to hover around $36k-$38k. So let the market flow on it's normal course and just be a HODLer.

Bitcoin has its own way to move, we can't predict well either up and fall. After bitcoin price up double from its previous all time high there are so many investor (including instutional investor) who interested to try investing in bitcoin and this thing is the factor why bitcoin price up until touch $42.000 as the current all time high.

As for the correction issue, I don't think it will fall to $10.000 and below although it can happen if many bad things happen, but to me it will never happen. The strong support now is $20.000 and there will be many investor who will put an entry in this area. Like has happened in a few days ago when bitcoin price fallen to $30.000 and we have seen a strong increase at that area, it means there will be many people who will buy bitcoin at the low price.

To my opinion we are currently in some more or less stable phase with smaller fluctuations. Intensive correction period is behind us but that doesn't mean it will not happen again
However, I don't expect some bigger dump in period that follows and I don't think that Bitcoin price will return to level that was before pump.
Some think that this whole situation with Covid and especially with vaccine also influenced Bitcoin price in positive way but I don't think there is some direct significant impact.

There could be a significant correction for sure, knowing that the span of increase with the price of BTC is significantly too fast. I always have read in some trading books that the quicker you rise, the quicker you fall. Maybe in a few months, it would recall back. What I'm thinking of is, should I cash-out some of my BTC before it happens? I might regret it again because I cashed out around $22k back then but still. It makes someone wonder what to do within this timeframe.

In all fairness, Bitcoin's price was never pumped and dumped. I'd like to believe that everything has been organic with Bitcoin. But the previous years were all but Bitcoin thriving with individual believers and a handful of institutions which are like swimming against the current. Most institutions were probably not interested with Bitcoin. They're even against Bitcoin. And we all know where the money in the world is. The biggest slice belongs to these institutions.

But since last year, institutions are now jumping into the bandwagon, new and big ones. And there are a lot to come very soon. I even think that Elon is already getting into Bitcoin. So this is nothing like 2017. That was old history of Bitcoin. It is impossible Bitcoin is going to be stuck in that pattern.

Those are what corrections called, dropping down and recovering. Normally we have seen so many crashes and bad things after a big increase that people are still shocked about recovering after a fall, but this is what correction actually is and that's what  going on right now. People think that when you end up dropping, you drop even further, and then drop some more, they are expecting under 10k prices once again after each big drop.

However corrections are things where you go down 10-20% range and then recover most of it back and steady and then either go even higher or have another correction. We had this during 15k price levels, we had this MANY times between 17k-20k remember that? Only few months ago we went to 19.2k-19.6k levels and dropped under 18k about 5 times, but recovered each time, look at us right now, over 33k already. So, correction is literally what we are having right now.

I agree with everything you wrote and I also think that this is not the end of price increases on the cryptocurrency market. Not only that, I think this is just the beginning of the altseason.
I think, however, that it is not about the explosion in prices itself, but more about how long the bull market will last. I think that because of what you mentioned in your post, the bull market will be simply longer than the previous ones, which in my opinion were like pump & dump.

Considering all of these days this year have been in the Top 100 for Bitcoin there is a downside however as with every rally of Bitcoin the bottom is persistent at a higher level.

About even money that the market decides to test up again before going down will we see 2017 ATH be the bottom doubt it probably 25K.

Really depends how bored are people of Covid lockdowns and what else will they do hehe Gamestop or Doge lol.

So do a huge short on margin of 10 x and get back to us when and if you do it.

I am planning on 75-100 k by dec 2021.

Same like you, I believe that bitcoin will be in price correction, but I'm don't know how deep the price drop will. For 8K maybe this is impossible because too deep, but if going down to 10K maybe this is possible although only less chance. But what you think if 2021 will be different, that the real holder will keep hold their bitcoin, will be a different story. So prepare anything

Overall, I agree with you that no one should look at history and expect it to repeat itself. Despite the difference of several years, the difference in situations is enormous. The crypto market has matured and is supported by large players who are interested in a smooth growth rather than a sharp collapse (although the latter would probably bring them more profit). But at the same time, do not think that any price is guaranteed. Bitcoin can fall as large as it can grow, I think experienced crypto enthusiasts know this.

It's totally different if you will compare the year 2017 the last bull run and now 2021, it was doubled the price that we never expected.
We are lucky enough that the bitcoin price increased as we expected and broke the previous price that was on the market, so if the market price repeats itself we should expect that there is a correction, but for now, there is no clear information where the bitcoin price headed at.

Let see and wait further if there is truly a correction. For now, enjoy the market as we have now the price and always prepared for what circumstances will happen.

Well, at this current rate most of us will always say Bitcoin might have the slightest chance of going back below the $20,000 level. I know institutional investors are still pouring out more money to invest with Bitcoin, and more than half of the news are still very bullish so we have still a lot of reasons for Bitcoin to stay at this current level or will increase more than the new ATH. But we should never forget how volatile Bitcoin is, everything may happen, though there's a huge difference between the 2017 and the 2020 bull season.

I feel we are already in the correction phase from couple of weeks and we need to understand one thing that there is a huge difference between last bull run of 2017 and this current one. I don't think Bitcoin will go below $20k as there is very thin possibilities of bitcoin going below $20k in next 6 to 12 months, covid has had no impact on crypto market and we shouldn't be worried about it but I have witnessed increased adoption rate of bitcoin like start ups accepting payment in bitcoin which will only help bitcoin grow not do drop any further.

I understand that some people are afraid and there is a line of thinking that "whatever happened in the past will happen again" for some people, but do not be worried that there are a lot more people investing money nowadays and that is why we will not let that happen. I get the logic, we are in a situation where we are doing quite well right now and that should probably continue for a while as well but you have seen the 2017 and seen that it went up a lot and then crashed to very low levels so you are assuming that the same could happen and you are scared that you will not be capable of profiting and you will lose money instead of win money like so many people did.

However at the end of the day we are living in a world where we are making much better decisions now in 2021, and those huge corporations buying bitcoin is a proof that we won't be going down that much anymore.

Bitcoin has never gone back to an old ATH once it has hit a new ATH. So when it hit 20k, it never went back to the previous one of around 1400, which I would say means we won't even see 20k anymore. Maybe very close to it, but not at it. But this is also because I don't think we're actually seeing a near ATH yet (not yet peak in 2021).

Once we confirm no more peak, then we can talk about how low we can correct.

I stopped reading after "The main reason is again (like 2017)." Seriously, don't compare as if 2017 is 2021. This is years apart and there are a lot of changes that happened in between.

I'm going to ask you instead, was there PayPal in 2017? Was there Square in 2018? Was there Microstrategy, was there SkyBridge, etc all those years? These are just some factors which make me believe that 2021 is going to be a lot more explosive than all the previous years combined. Who knows, we might even hit 6 digits within the year?

People just get fearful after a deep correction. The downtrend has been such a stark contrast to the exuberance of December and early January, so people are questioning the strength of the larger bull trend and are wondering if the top is in.

The same thing happened all through 2017. Many people thought the top was in after the market dumped off $3K and again off $5K. As it turned out, those were just mid-term corrections and price went parabolic again afterwards. The same will happen again this time, I believe.

I really don't understand why we have several threads comparing the 2017/2018 bullish/bearish market to today's 2020/2021. Are there really similarities or some coincidence? And then we have other side of the spectrum, telling us that this is just the start of the bull run so normally so might see some dips along the way before we can go to $50k or even more at the end of the year.

I guess everyone can make their wild, free and educated guess here.

We also failed to see that bitcoin's narrative has change a bit since the bull run in 2017 and the eventual bearish trend after that. So I don't think we can compare the two.

Throw away accounts like the starter of this topic have been saying the same thing every time there is an accumulation going on and the price is about to jump up again. Basically every year.
They said it back in 2016 when price reached $600 and they wanted to see $150 again.
They said it again back in 2017 when price reached $3000 and they wanted to see $900 again.
They said it again in 2019 when price went above $6000 and they wanted $1000 again
They said it again in 2019 when price went past $10,000 and they wanted to see $6000 again.
...
They are saying it today that price is past $30,000 and they wish for $10,000 again.

Soon they will repeat it when price reaches $90,000 and they wish to see $30,000 again.

The old topics in this board are priceless after a couple of years. Some FUD examples:
China bans bitcoin again in Sep 2017: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.6000
Dump predictions like OP back in Aug 2017 with a golden post from the biggest FUD idiot called kwukduck: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.6080
Dump talk in Jul 2017 and doomsday scenarios because of bcash existence: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.6320

I'm going to quote my answer from ~4 years ago to answer OP but change the numbers in the comment to match the case for today:

In fairness it did the same bounce effect for 4-5 months after the ATH of 2017/18 @ $19k but eventually dropped back to $3.4k - 80% drop over 4-5 months. But there was a similar sideways bounce against supports.

I'm guessing this is due to the fact market will not drop 80% overnight, and even within those time periods of a general drop, there will still be buying volume and a shift in buyers/sellers to move the price both Up and Down.

I don't know. I just think after this hype dies down a little bit and the world goes back to normality things will cool off a bit. Even institutions will make their moves and then sit and wait and view performance, than simply plough more money right back in... They surely have a board and shareholders to answer to, with whom they will need to make investment decisions with... no?

I think the point about retail investors who have put money into BTC may look at it in a few months (here especially a lot of people have lost their jobs due to pandemic), so may look to call on these funds.

This time is already different compare on the previous years of Bitcoin, especially last year 2017.
I don't think so this COVID drama will affect the price of crypto market. It is already proven last year, people already learnt the lesson.
Look at the hype of Bitcoin these days, retail investors and institutions are starting to buy Bitcoin. Look what happened when Bitcoin dropped below 30k past few days, it is bouncing once it is dropping.
6-12 months may be sideways for Bitcoin, but dropping below $20,000 is kinda impossible.

Well I found this about general market dynamics and the cycle... What's interesting is if we overlay against BTC price 2018, and then again on current situation...
https://imgur.com/a/6gQMQ6K

2018 situation - whilst we didn't "capitulate" completely to failure, we did return to the mean line (black line) over the proceeding 4-6 months.
In a generally bullish market like BTC perhaps this makes sense... We didn't completely fail, but the cycle still determined the price over medium term.

In 2021, we can see a similar second uptick - of course only time will tell where it goes from here, but you wouldn't be crazy to perhaps expect to see a similar pattern transpiring.
With the argument about whales and institutional investors - well we're at the mercy of when they take profits and dump on market, but also they're not stupid to not see that a fall in price on a cyclical market dynamic would mean the opportunity to buy again at lower prices and accumulate more profit.

Based on the return to mean line, seeing $10k isn't crazy...

2018 Movements
https://imgur.com/1LgKF5l

2021 Movements
https://imgur.com/b6cwzz1

If the 2017-2018 bulls and bears are your basis then, you're probably haven't looked at its correlation about the halving before those years and the halving that we've got just last year.

But taking into account that we're comparing it with those years, January 2021 is like January 2017. And if you have understood by that means, your expectation could change but it's all on you and we'll see until this year ends but I'm bullish.

Just want to point out that I like this guy and been following him when he had forecasted a good prediction last year around June about bitcoin.

The correction has already started and we are already experiencing it after it's ATH again it went down to 29k isn't this a correction? Obviously the price will go down in someday because the price was in it's extreme peak and surely the drop will happen and that's how the market is built as a proverb I've already said "Everyrise has a fall" so think and invest according to the market. Also follow the trend because this will surely help to have knowledge in crypto market.

I don't think a similar crash such as the one in 2017 would happen for this cycle. Yes, a set back may be inevitable, but I doubt it would go below $20k. Tbh, the market back then was due to FOMO, way too many people got sucked in and the like, I hardly doubt the same exact scenarios would happen this year. Yes, some people may have been sucked in by FOMO again, but most should know better than be affected, and so far, even though the price doubled from what it initially was, it has seen a pretty stable movement for the past few weeks.

Rather than a price correction, a consolidation would probably be the better term, and at the minimum, it would stand at about above $20k on any range at the worst case scenario, and in the best case, well, the market will keep going on with the bull run and reach greater heights.

No, we are not going under $20k in any case. I guess we will go atmost $25k then we will bounce back stronger.

But at least not 6-12 months long? that is exaggeration to have that long range of correcting because it will take place for a month or 2 because of some other currencies that goes with the value of Pumping to the number 1 currency .

though OP is comparing still in the pattern of 2017-2018 in which too different in this year/Halving.

we are in more confident market and more competent investor that wanted to stay investing and not manipulating this market so more or less we will remain in this status while Whales from the manipulator side are trying to push their intentions .

I just do not see it, if you take a careful look at the previous history of how the price of bitcoin moves I really think we have left behind that price for bitcoin for good, the minimum I think we will see bitcoin during the next months is 20k and that is assuming the bull run is over which I do not see, this is a period of accumulation and then after a few months the price will begin to go up once again, and at that point a price of 100k for each bitcoin will be very possible.

Good luck.

The correction will be a rise to 80,000-100,000 in 6-12 months

not a drop to 8,000-10,000 in 6-12 months.

You should short BTC on 10x margin if you believe what you say.

I am stacking my sats as fast as I can. I will sell at 77,777 sometime in dec.

The comparison to 2017 implies the bull run is over already. Why do you think so? There is some fractal resemblance to the 2018 bubble pop, but my experience tells me not to read into it too much.

Peter Brandt pointed out the same fractal similarity, but like me, he doesn't think it's predictive of a crash like 2017. He still expects parabolic upside from here: https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1356037338057601025

Price consolidation is how I'd rather put it, we can see positive moves once again within this but a better perspective overall would be trading within range.   Where as most people I see or many at least have been swept up in bullish action and expectation towards breaking even six figures and I dont blame them because its not profitable to be negative or doubting but at some point on the horizon is storm clouds or at least some rain to slow us down in progress.
  We're going to be a bit slower, its not really negative its just revision and some repeat.   However disappointment will lead some to sell which is where we cycle through the negative price action also, all quite normal and doesnt knock my long term view.   Of course I thought 2020 would be in consolidation then events happened and I was all wrong but it was playing out that way to begin with.

It is possible to see a price correction because the Bitcoin price jumped too quickly in the past 60 days. The global crypto market has a much better foundation than 2018, so even if there is a price correction, the long-term perspectives are excellent.

the major correction had occured in January and may not pull it any further below $27k, in a worst-case possibly to drop to $20k if something unexpected occurs but unlikely to hit $8k even in the next 6-12 months. Bitcoin predicted to grow over $100k this year and surely will get corrected after it reaches the ath, assume the peak is $100k and the biggest crash is 80%-90%, then it will be $20k or $10k as the lowest price in 2023 as the price decline gradually in a long bear market. However, we expect a tremendous increase this year to reach a milestone of 6 digits, not the other way around.

When it comes to correction then this had been a common question on when it would happen but to point out a certain day or month then it is something that we should expect on.
Thinking off that this pandemic did really make out some big effect into the market not only limited to crypto but also in other traditional markets as well or shall we say the entire
economy.Cash flows in different mediums not solely or purely focusing on crypto alone.We shouldnt really correlate from time to time about those fundamentals to be that
main reason on why we do reach out this high.Correction is inevitable no matter what reason is behind it.

I am of the belief that bitcoin should be in a price correction next 6-12 months. The main reason is again (like 2017) that the market has had extremely high demand over a short period of time. This may be partly due to the fact that many people have to place their cash elsewhere, than in the bank, due to the very low interest rates on deposits. My thought is the world economies have in recent years been able to keep borrowing money from each other due to there is growth in the world. When something is created, money can also be borrowed from it. The Big problem is waiting when the economies go into recession and there is no growth but the economies still have the same "consumption". We are facing this issue right now with COVID-19. The resultat is that it’s no longer possible to borrowed in the growth. The economies will at some point have to adapt with greater saving programs and here many ordinary people will lose their jobs and therefore need e.g. their deposits in bitcoin. It is great that larger companies have started investing in bitcoin, but when these also meet the challenges of the future from the economies, a major correction is impossible to avoid. My best guess is that we hit the bottom in 8,000 - 10,000 in 6-12 months. What do you think about this?