https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1441129
And of course on my blog:
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/01/weekly-network-forecast-7th-january-2013.html
Here's a taste:
Enjoy!
Topic: Price drives difficulty (Read 6445 times)
I'm now including Difficulty estimates up to 3 retargets in advance at the "Long range forecast" thread:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1441129
And of course on my blog:
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/01/weekly-network-forecast-7th-january-2013.html
Here's a taste:
Enjoy!
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1441129
And of course on my blog:
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2013/01/weekly-network-forecast-7th-january-2013.html
Here's a taste:
Enjoy!
Sorry, I'll just remove them then.
Now you make me feel like a censor, which was not my aim. Plus I do love XKCD and I liked the cartoon to which you linked.
But your link did imply I was somehow wrong - I don't mind that at all since I am often wrong, but an off-hand link implying I meant something I didn't was just confusing.
You didn't read that blog post or any of the following posts, did you?
Nope.Please read the following quote from the subsequent blog post:
No, because I just wanted to post a funny comic.It would be nice if you posted your of topic comments in the off-topic thread. I can help you if you're not sure how to start a topic there
"Price" does indeed "drive difficulty"
and an analysis of correlation coefficients tells us that the "price" is the log of the volume weighted average USDBTC price from two difficulty periods previously, and difficulty is actually the log of D.
http://m.xkcd.com/552/
and an analysis of correlation coefficients tells us that the "price" is the log of the volume weighted average USDBTC price from two difficulty periods previously, and difficulty is actually the log of D.
http://m.xkcd.com/552/
You didn't read that blog post or any of the following posts, did you? Please read the following quote from the subsequent blog post:
from http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/11/102-forecasting-network-hashrate.html :
Quote
0. Introduction
In the last post I showed in a simple way that changes in the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate correlated well with later changes in the mining Difficulty. Since there have been some misunderstandings on the subject I want to explain the correlation in a bit more detail before starting on forecasting the network hashrate.
Clearly, the exchange rate is not influencing mining difficulty directly, but through an intermediate process:
US$-BTC -> cost per hash and earnings per hash -> network hashrate -> mining Difficulty
Of course, this assumes that there are no possible changes to the cost per hash or earnings per hash, or the network hashrate other than the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate. Some of the factors could be:
Technology changes that make the cost per hash lower or the earnings per hash higher, or both - for example the change from CPU mining to GPU mining, to a lesser extent FPGAs, and to a much greater extent, the upcoming ASIC mining devices. This would likely increase the network hashrate without a corresponding increase in the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate.
An influx of new miners due to publicity. If new bitcoin enthusiasts start to mine rather than buy, the network hashrate will increase without a corresponding increase in the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate.
Non-profit driven miners. A given miner that mines at difficulties beyond which a return can be made could be mining irrationally - either due to the assumption that the local currency - BTC exchange rate will rise significantly, not wanting to turn off expensive equipment that has yet to pay for itself, or perhaps a less irrational reason such as wanting to contribute to network security.
Changes to local electricity costs - price per kWh is unlikely to decrease, which means cost per hash is likely to increase, probably in the near term for many miners. This would, if a large enough increase, prevent the network hashrate from expanding beyond some maximum beyond which it would only be profitable for those not paying for electricity to mine, without a corresponding decrease in the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate.
The first has already occurred, but does not seem to have had an obvious effect on network hashrate that could not be predicted by the exchange rate. This may be because the cost of purchasing a GPU was sufficiently prohibitive that an increase in MTGOX US$-BTC was required to make it possible. ASICs however are much cheaper to purchase (in terms of $/hash) and much cheaper to run (hash/joule) and should cause a significant discontinuity in the correlation.
The second possibility has certainly occurred at times. This however does not seem to have caused an increase in difficulty that could not be predicted by the exchange rate.
I am uncertain as to the likelihood of the third possibility having occurred. It would be a good explanation for the distinct lack of the mining Difficulty's response to the MTGOX US$-BTC crash after June 2011. If correct, mining difficulty should reduce much more slowly than MTGOX US$-BTC.
The last is yet to occur, but will at some point in the not too distant future. After this point, the only increases in network hashrate not due to publicity or non-profit driven miners will be either incremental as technology gradually improves efficiency and cost, or the exchange rate.
My original intention for this post was to find out if any of the first three were had affected mining difficulty in any significant way, or at least find specific points at which there was a significant departure from the MTGOX US$-BTC correlation and determine a possible reason.
........
In the last post I showed in a simple way that changes in the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate correlated well with later changes in the mining Difficulty. Since there have been some misunderstandings on the subject I want to explain the correlation in a bit more detail before starting on forecasting the network hashrate.
Clearly, the exchange rate is not influencing mining difficulty directly, but through an intermediate process:
US$-BTC -> cost per hash and earnings per hash -> network hashrate -> mining Difficulty
Of course, this assumes that there are no possible changes to the cost per hash or earnings per hash, or the network hashrate other than the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate. Some of the factors could be:
Technology changes that make the cost per hash lower or the earnings per hash higher, or both - for example the change from CPU mining to GPU mining, to a lesser extent FPGAs, and to a much greater extent, the upcoming ASIC mining devices. This would likely increase the network hashrate without a corresponding increase in the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate.
An influx of new miners due to publicity. If new bitcoin enthusiasts start to mine rather than buy, the network hashrate will increase without a corresponding increase in the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate.
Non-profit driven miners. A given miner that mines at difficulties beyond which a return can be made could be mining irrationally - either due to the assumption that the local currency - BTC exchange rate will rise significantly, not wanting to turn off expensive equipment that has yet to pay for itself, or perhaps a less irrational reason such as wanting to contribute to network security.
Changes to local electricity costs - price per kWh is unlikely to decrease, which means cost per hash is likely to increase, probably in the near term for many miners. This would, if a large enough increase, prevent the network hashrate from expanding beyond some maximum beyond which it would only be profitable for those not paying for electricity to mine, without a corresponding decrease in the MTGOX US$-BTC exchange rate.
The first has already occurred, but does not seem to have had an obvious effect on network hashrate that could not be predicted by the exchange rate. This may be because the cost of purchasing a GPU was sufficiently prohibitive that an increase in MTGOX US$-BTC was required to make it possible. ASICs however are much cheaper to purchase (in terms of $/hash) and much cheaper to run (hash/joule) and should cause a significant discontinuity in the correlation.
The second possibility has certainly occurred at times. This however does not seem to have caused an increase in difficulty that could not be predicted by the exchange rate.
I am uncertain as to the likelihood of the third possibility having occurred. It would be a good explanation for the distinct lack of the mining Difficulty's response to the MTGOX US$-BTC crash after June 2011. If correct, mining difficulty should reduce much more slowly than MTGOX US$-BTC.
The last is yet to occur, but will at some point in the not too distant future. After this point, the only increases in network hashrate not due to publicity or non-profit driven miners will be either incremental as technology gradually improves efficiency and cost, or the exchange rate.
My original intention for this post was to find out if any of the first three were had affected mining difficulty in any significant way, or at least find specific points at which there was a significant departure from the MTGOX US$-BTC correlation and determine a possible reason.
........
If I understand correctly the data seems good and the higher resolution (or linear time) even has a slightly positive effect on your model?
I was having interpolating from sets of 144 blocks to weekly data. It's good enough, but your dataset is easily converted to weekly averages, and yes, the models seem more accurate when I use it. there's a (weak) autocorrelation for network hashrate at lag11 which was not significant for my dataset, but does seem to add accuracy to the models. I've writen a post using your dataset it here, and the post on the forum about it is here.I'm playing around myself, still stuck at the early stages, though. What correlation coefficient do you use? Pearsons Correlation?
For the network Difficulty / price correlation, yes. However for the network hashrate / price correlation (which involves lagged variables) I used the autocorrelation function (acf), partial autocorrelation function (pacf) and the cross correlation function (ccf). You can learn more about them here.
Thanks for your help. I'm sorry the donation was paltry, but I did put your address at the end of the "Long range forecasts" blog post at organofcorti.blogspot.com, so perhaps some kind soul will add to that.
Just read through your blog post. Thanks a lot for your donation, for mentioning me in the post and for the pointer about the correlation functions
.If I understand correctly the data seems good and the higher resolution (or linear time) even has a slightly positive effect on your model?
I was having interpolating from sets of 144 blocks to weekly data. It's good enough, but your dataset is easily converted to weekly averages, and yes, the models seem more accurate when I use it. there's a (weak) autocorrelation for network hashrate at lag11 which was not significant for my dataset, but does seem to add accuracy to the models. I've writen a post using your dataset it here, and the post on the forum about it is here.I'm playing around myself, still stuck at the early stages, though. What correlation coefficient do you use? Pearsons Correlation?
For the network Difficulty / price correlation, yes. However for the network hashrate / price correlation (which involves lagged variables) I used the autocorrelation function (acf), partial autocorrelation function (pacf) and the cross correlation function (ccf). You can learn more about them here.
Thanks for your help. I'm sorry the donation was paltry, but I did put your address at the end of the "Long range forecasts" blog post at organofcorti.blogspot.com, so perhaps some kind soul will add to that.
I gave it a test run last night, after converting it to weekly averages. It looks good, and I didn't see any obvious difference between it and my data. However when I checked the ccf, acf and pacf again, I found a weak autocorrelation at lag 11. The pacf spike was also there in my dataset but it wasn't significant. In your dataset it became significant, and when adding a lag11 term for the network hashrate to the lag1 linear model, I got a decrease in the 95% CI for %error of about 2%.
I had also changed the way I bound weekly average network hashrate to weekly median price to something that was more accurate, so this may have had an effect on the linear model's accuracy too.
I can't be certain, but I think the model based on your data is likely more accurate as a predictor since you based it on actual rounds per day rather than (as I did) an interpolation between groups of 144 blocks.
I also completed forecast models for up to four weeks. I'll post the results tonight if I get some time. The forecast models have surprisingly good accuracy if there are no significant changes to conditions, less so when there are large changes in hashrate or price.
I had also changed the way I bound weekly average network hashrate to weekly median price to something that was more accurate, so this may have had an effect on the linear model's accuracy too.
I can't be certain, but I think the model based on your data is likely more accurate as a predictor since you based it on actual rounds per day rather than (as I did) an interpolation between groups of 144 blocks.
I also completed forecast models for up to four weeks. I'll post the results tonight if I get some time. The forecast models have surprisingly good accuracy if there are no significant changes to conditions, less so when there are large changes in hashrate or price.
If I understand correctly the data seems good and the higher resolution (or linear time) even has a slightly positive effect on your model?
I'm playing around myself, still stuck at the early stages, though. What correlation coefficient do you use? Pearsons Correlation?
Here we go my friend (example chart of the data, which is "difficulty and hashrate by day"):
......
donations: 1MoLECHau3nb9zV78uKraNdcZsJ2REwxuL
Sweet! I'll give it a test run when I get home, see how close my interpolated values were, and redo some network hashrate predictions.
Thanks for sharing your data.
Nice, glad you're happy! Looking forward to your updates.
I gave it a test run last night, after converting it to weekly averages. It looks good, and I didn't see any obvious difference between it and my data. However when I checked the ccf, acf and pacf again, I found a weak autocorrelation at lag 11. The pacf spike was also there in my dataset but it wasn't significant. In your dataset it became significant, and when adding a lag11 term for the network hashrate to the lag1 linear model, I got a decrease in the 95% CI for %error of about 2%.
I had also changed the way I bound weekly average network hashrate to weekly median price to something that was more accurate, so this may have had an effect on the linear model's accuracy too.
I can't be certain, but I think the model based on your data is likely more accurate as a predictor since you based it on actual rounds per day rather than (as I did) an interpolation between groups of 144 blocks.
I also completed forecast models for up to four weeks. I'll post the results tonight if I get some time. The forecast models have surprisingly good accuracy if there are no significant changes to conditions, less so when there are large changes in hashrate or price.
now that the rewards halved. waiting for the price hike. any speculations on the chain of effects?
Don't expect it to hike to $20 overnight. 
Difficulty may not affect price but supply does. Block reward halving reduces supply. Demand is another story.
now that the rewards halved. waiting for the price hike. any speculations on the chain of effects?
Difficulty = amount of hardware connected to the network.
Price drives the amount of hardware on the network.
Price drives the amount of hardware on the network.
If you can get a proper weekly / daily dataset, please post. I'd like to use a time period that doesn't stretch.
Here we go my friend (example chart of the data, which is "difficulty and hashrate by day"):
......
notes:
- the aggregation to day-level is not 100% correct: the work done for a block is counted completely for the day it was found on (instead of counting part of it for the previous day, weighted by time since previous block). This is a negligible error in my mind and it should cancel out pretty well with the same error being made on the subsequent day boundary, so I didn't take the considerable effort to fix that.
- regarding example chart: difficulty and hashrate axis are not aligned correctly
please point out any mistakes/problems
donations: 1MoLECHau3nb9zV78uKraNdcZsJ2REwxuL
Sweet! I'll give it a test run when I get home, see how close my interpolated values were, and redo some network hashrate predictions.
Thanks for sharing your data.
Nice, glad you're happy! Looking forward to your updates.
If you can get a proper weekly / daily dataset, please post. I'd like to use a time period that doesn't stretch.
Here we go my friend (example chart of the data, which is "difficulty and hashrate by day"):
......
notes:
- the aggregation to day-level is not 100% correct: the work done for a block is counted completely for the day it was found on (instead of counting part of it for the previous day, weighted by time since previous block). This is a negligible error in my mind and it should cancel out pretty well with the same error being made on the subsequent day boundary, so I didn't take the considerable effort to fix that.
- regarding example chart: difficulty and hashrate axis are not aligned correctly
please point out any mistakes/problems
donations: 1MoLECHau3nb9zV78uKraNdcZsJ2REwxuL
Sweet! I'll give it a test run when I get home, see how close my interpolated values were, and redo some network hashrate predictions.
Thanks for sharing your data.
If you can get a proper weekly / daily dataset, please post. I'd like to use a time period that doesn't stretch.
Here we go my friend (example chart of the data, which is "difficulty and hashrate by day"):
csv data to copy/paste (since 2010/05/01 because of posting limit here, full data in pastebin: http://pastebin.com/1U3ZazNh):
Code:
"y","m","d","blockNumber","time","difficulty","avgIntervalSinceLast","netHashPerSecond"
2010,5,1,54058,1272757422,11.464,86758,103861882
2010,5,2,54213,1272844510,11.464,87088,87637103
2010,5,3,54372,1272929921,11.464,85411,91663819
2010,5,4,54508,1273017559,11.464,87638,81637957
2010,5,5,54645,1273103852,12.849,86293,87547795
2010,5,6,54794,1273190345,12.849,86493,95070836
2010,5,7,54926,1273276636,12.849,86291,84420989
2010,5,8,55080,1273361978,12.849,85342,99586372
2010,5,9,55223,1273449234,12.849,87256,90444621
2010,5,10,55351,1273534245,12.849,85011,83095375
2010,5,11,55462,1273617651,12.849,83406,73445923
2010,5,12,55589,1273708703,12.849,91052,76976159
2010,5,13,55717,1273794255,12.849,85552,82569910
2010,5,14,55840,1273881079,12.849,86824,78182100
2010,5,15,55931,1273967092,12.849,86013,58387423
2010,5,16,56044,1274049348,12.849,82256,75814603
2010,5,17,56187,1274140555,12.849,91207,86526647
2010,5,18,56355,1274226013,12.849,85458,108492212
2010,5,19,56519,1274312773,11.846,86760,100794472
2010,5,20,56722,1274399648,11.846,86875,118890677
2010,5,21,56898,1274485791,11.846,86143,103953534
2010,5,22,57093,1274572490,11.846,86699,114437169
2010,5,23,57304,1274658938,11.846,86448,124186414
2010,5,24,57492,1274744982,11.846,86044,111169036
2010,5,25,57702,1274831264,11.846,86282,123835645
2010,5,26,57925,1274918339,11.846,87075,130304064
2010,5,27,58117,1275004585,11.846,86246,113268421
2010,5,28,58340,1275091198,11.846,86613,130999115
2010,5,29,58524,1275177397,11.846,86199,123114900
2010,5,30,58673,1275263594,16.619,86197,123148651
2010,5,31,58815,1275350111,16.619,86517,117154865
2010,6,1,58950,1275434537,16.619,84426,114138192
2010,6,2,59097,1275522984,16.619,88447,118633587
2010,6,3,59249,1275609466,16.619,86482,125455960
2010,6,4,59374,1275695880,16.619,86414,103252206
2010,6,5,59519,1275781227,16.619,85347,121269944
2010,6,6,59667,1275868130,16.619,86903,121562712
2010,6,7,59824,1275955057,16.619,86927,128919435
2010,6,8,59984,1276041176,16.619,86119,132615546
2010,6,9,60152,1276127818,16.619,86642,138405786
2010,6,10,60312,1276213956,16.619,86138,132586294
2010,6,11,60480,1276298786,16.619,84830,141400786
2010,6,12,60615,1276386932,17.381,88146,114299274
2010,6,13,60788,1276473545,17.381,86613,149113329
2010,6,14,60948,1276559803,17.381,86258,138475851
2010,6,15,61132,1276646276,17.381,86473,158851288
2010,6,16,61274,1276731672,17.381,85396,124137862
2010,6,17,61420,1276818439,17.381,86767,125617955
2010,6,18,61570,1276905227,17.381,86788,129028314
2010,6,19,61720,1276991572,17.381,86345,129690305
2010,6,20,61905,1277078166,17.381,86594,159491437
2010,6,21,62059,1277163605,17.381,85439,134560629
2010,6,22,62215,1277251011,17.381,87406,133240667
2010,6,23,62402,1277337176,17.381,86165,162018333
2010,6,24,62571,1277423917,17.381,86741,153064754
2010,6,25,62721,1277509878,19.405,85961,145332714
2010,6,26,62880,1277595462,19.405,85584,154838915
2010,6,27,63058,1277682985,19.405,87523,169501437
2010,6,28,63210,1277769562,19.405,86577,146324360
2010,6,29,63379,1277855761,19.405,86199,163403011
2010,6,30,63561,1277941399,19.405,85638,177125239
2010,7,1,63773,1278027717,19.405,86318,204696336
2010,7,2,63939,1278114492,19.405,86775,159436974
2010,7,3,64151,1278201595,19.405,87103,202851547
2010,7,4,64317,1278287800,19.405,86205,160491194
2010,7,5,64499,1278374229,19.405,86429,175504185
2010,7,6,64665,1278459517,19.405,85288,193986097
2010,7,7,64821,1278546872,23.501,87355,180056531
2010,7,8,64972,1278633242,23.501,86370,176470295
2010,7,9,65171,1278719793,23.501,86551,232080457
2010,7,10,65369,1278806151,23.501,86358,231430289
2010,7,11,65548,1278892631,23.501,86480,208927176
2010,7,12,66207,1278979053,23.501,86422,769695037
2010,7,13,66899,1279065587,23.501,86534,1211265780
2010,7,14,67477,1279151810,45.386,86223,1305656544
2010,7,15,68103,1279238341,45.386,86531,1410227916
2010,7,16,68606,1279324558,45.386,86217,1564587601
2010,7,17,68779,1279409970,181.546,85412,1572486868
2010,7,18,68951,1279495112,181.546,85142,1575183985
2010,7,19,69125,1279583106,181.546,87994,1541852667
2010,7,20,69306,1279670310,181.546,87204,1618411131
2010,7,21,69513,1279756558,181.546,86248,1871405927
2010,7,22,69689,1279842280,181.546,85722,1600910529
2010,7,23,69883,1279929418,181.546,87138,1735964463
2010,7,24,70072,1280015780,181.546,86362,1706419483
2010,7,25,70303,1280101900,181.546,86120,2091484484
2010,7,26,70546,1280187843,181.546,85943,2204664212
2010,7,27,70712,1280275076,181.546,87233,1955897770
2010,7,28,70871,1280359801,244.216,84725,1965258620
2010,7,29,71051,1280447984,244.216,88183,2141032694
2010,7,30,71233,1280534228,244.216,86244,2213493039
2010,7,31,71436,1280620614,244.216,86386,2464837748
2010,8,1,71675,1280706261,244.216,85647,2926991149
2010,8,2,71917,1280793216,244.216,86955,2919150392
2010,8,3,72144,1280879634,244.216,86418,2755226518
2010,8,4,72387,1280966081,244.216,86447,2948438074
2010,8,5,72605,1281052228,244.216,86147,2815771126
2010,8,6,72752,1281138653,352.166,86425,2567316417
2010,8,7,72907,1281225577,352.166,86924,2697118323
2010,8,8,73106,1281311811,352.166,86234,3490459066
2010,8,9,73296,1281398321,352.166,86510,3321966842
2010,8,10,73487,1281484270,352.166,85949,3361247897
2010,8,11,73720,1281571151,352.166,86881,4056384499
2010,8,12,73937,1281657390,352.166,86239,3805958306
2010,8,13,74152,1281743901,352.166,86511,3759024291
2010,8,14,74433,1281830145,352.166,86244,4928167194
2010,8,15,74640,1281916602,352.166,86457,4009947922
2010,8,16,74787,1282003114,511.781,86512,3727030092
2010,8,17,74916,1282088148,511.781,85034,3334582086
2010,8,18,75049,1282175965,511.781,87817,3329027291
2010,8,19,75184,1282261716,511.781,85751,3460500261
2010,8,20,75377,1282348055,511.781,86339,4913541246
2010,8,21,75550,1282434891,511.781,86836,4379157895
2010,8,22,75762,1282521530,511.781,86639,5378568960
2010,8,23,75975,1282607583,511.781,86053,5440739082
2010,8,24,76190,1282694212,511.781,86629,5455310445
2010,8,25,76406,1282780329,511.781,86117,5513268840
2010,8,26,76616,1282867068,511.781,86739,5371425977
2010,8,27,76787,1282953489,623.396,86421,5292319603
2010,8,28,76957,1283039760,623.396,86271,5276042566
2010,8,29,77119,1283125822,623.396,86062,5039968030
2010,8,30,77268,1283212322,623.396,86500,4612053776
2010,8,31,77452,1283299013,623.396,86691,5682873801
2010,9,1,77609,1283384208,623.396,85195,4934120444
2010,9,2,77765,1283471648,623.396,87440,4776817518
2010,9,3,77929,1283557461,623.396,85813,5116994669
2010,9,4,78110,1283644567,623.396,87106,5563584716
2010,9,5,78275,1283730384,623.396,85817,5147955894
2010,9,6,78433,1283815956,623.396,85572,4943671513
2010,9,7,78593,1283902135,623.396,86179,4970988218
2010,9,8,78758,1283989860,623.396,87725,5627536623
2010,9,9,78893,1284076559,712.895,86699,4763229449
2010,9,10,79070,1284163097,712.895,86538,6262565696
2010,9,11,79230,1284249544,712.895,86447,5667035570
2010,9,12,79407,1284335876,712.895,86332,6277509037
2010,9,13,79578,1284422354,712.895,86478,6054473124
2010,9,14,79781,1284508776,712.895,86422,7192131304
2010,9,15,79950,1284594821,712.895,86045,6013771852
2010,9,16,80169,1284681489,712.895,86668,7736975515
2010,9,17,80377,1284767769,712.895,86280,7381405784
2010,9,18,80614,1284853857,712.895,86088,8429301925
2010,9,19,80823,1284940601,712.895,86744,9244390627
2010,9,20,81026,1285026973,917.844,86372,9254952115
2010,9,21,81198,1285113494,917.844,86521,7836750212
2010,9,22,81372,1285199653,917.844,86159,7961184454
2010,9,23,81606,1285286257,917.844,86604,10651407343
2010,9,24,81834,1285372187,917.844,85930,10459697458
2010,9,25,82041,1285459160,917.844,86973,9382422430
2010,9,26,82246,1285545525,917.844,86365,9357184040
2010,9,27,82475,1285631098,917.844,85573,10549401280
2010,9,28,82687,1285718342,917.844,87244,10210670849
2010,9,29,82851,1285804682,1318.69,86340,10738131717
2010,9,30,82997,1285891043,1318.69,86361,9574978863
2010,10,1,83151,1285976967,1318.69,85924,10151000871
2010,10,2,83251,1286062849,1318.69,85882,6594782564
2010,10,3,83373,1286150321,1318.69,87472,7899387252
2010,10,4,83526,1286236727,1318.69,86406,10028827485
2010,10,5,83652,1286322059,1318.69,85332,8362983714
2010,10,6,83823,1286409517,1318.69,87458,11073864353
2010,10,7,83983,1286495515,1318.69,85998,10537419310
2010,10,8,84137,1286580144,1318.69,84629,10306332331
2010,10,9,84295,1286668246,1318.69,88102,10157198741
2010,10,10,84473,1286755178,1318.69,86932,11596928021
2010,10,11,84632,1286841373,1318.69,86195,10447627527
2010,10,12,84787,1286927098,1318.69,85725,10585616285
2010,10,13,84963,1287014223,1378.049,87125,11953309252
2010,10,14,85168,1287100491,1378.049,86268,14064643017
2010,10,15,85345,1287186896,1378.049,86405,12124364213
2010,10,16,85603,1287272969,1378.049,86073,17740969446
2010,10,17,85873,1287359718,1378.049,86749,18421452440
2010,10,18,86122,1287446226,1378.049,86508,17036001031
2010,10,19,86378,1287532081,1378.049,85855,17648140594
2010,10,20,86642,1287619058,1378.049,86977,17964870258
2010,10,21,86828,1287703996,1378.049,84938,18458019313
2010,10,22,86982,1287791863,2149.054,87867,16139471270
2010,10,23,87157,1287878005,2149.054,86142,18751258033
2010,10,24,87362,1287964768,2149.054,86763,21808541049
2010,10,25,87565,1288051165,2149.054,86397,21687260073
2010,10,26,87806,1288137252,2149.054,86087,25839659185
2010,10,27,88019,1288222528,2149.054,85276,23054732880
2010,10,28,88238,1288309819,2149.054,87291,23156982010
2010,10,29,88461,1288396697,2149.054,86878,23692034734
2010,10,30,88713,1288482919,2149.054,86222,27446359097
2010,10,31,88892,1288568792,3091.784,85873,27632806101
2010,11,1,89069,1288654918,3091.784,86126,27290280840
2010,11,2,89245,1288742248,3091.784,87330,26761978886
2010,11,3,89435,1288827848,3091.784,85600,29474663277
2010,11,4,89636,1288913758,3091.784,85910,31068576446
2010,11,5,89855,1289001359,3091.784,87601,33197399673
2010,11,6,90073,1289087997,3091.784,86638,33413124694
2010,11,7,90314,1289173685,3091.784,85688,37347888394
2010,11,8,90589,1289260751,3091.784,87066,41942384515
2010,11,9,90806,1289346460,3091.784,85709,39918492354
2010,11,10,91009,1289433587,4536.422,87127,45324690676
2010,11,11,91228,1289519952,4536.422,86365,49406004889
2010,11,12,91397,1289605083,4536.422,85131,38678744559
2010,11,13,91620,1289692433,4536.422,87350,49741096336
2010,11,14,91876,1289778953,4536.422,86520,57649673775
2010,11,15,92076,1289865091,4536.422,86138,45238543230
2010,11,16,92273,1289951743,4536.422,86652,44295645480
2010,11,17,92520,1290038304,4536.422,86561,55596581386
2010,11,18,92777,1290124407,4536.422,86103,63037800961
2010,11,19,92927,1290209751,6867.003,85344,51720372923
2010,11,20,93043,1290297122,6867.003,87371,39157757132
2010,11,21,93183,1290383667,6867.003,86545,47710413336
2010,11,22,93346,1290469886,6867.003,86219,55758585588
2010,11,23,93486,1290556003,6867.003,86117,47947533265
2010,11,24,93663,1290643074,6867.003,87071,59955200503
2010,11,25,93844,1290728837,6867.003,85763,62245181298
2010,11,26,94038,1290815935,6867.003,87098,65693238659
2010,11,27,94218,1290902379,6867.003,86444,61413631119
2010,11,28,94390,1290988423,6867.003,86044,58956946297
2010,11,29,94599,1291075173,6867.003,86750,71056519056
2010,11,30,94801,1291160438,6867.003,85265,72923545151
2010,12,1,94989,1291247659,8078.318,87221,74725889955
2010,12,2,95177,1291334388,8078.318,86729,75209784576
2010,12,3,95366,1291420391,8078.318,86003,76248102047
2010,12,4,95595,1291507126,8078.318,86735,91605581079
2010,12,5,95834,1291593530,8078.318,86404,95972075524
2010,12,6,96075,1291679218,8078.318,85688,97583832523
2010,12,7,96314,1291766379,8078.318,87161,95138550654
2010,12,8,96552,1291852220,8078.318,85841,96197331108
2010,12,9,96775,1291937850,8078.318,85630,92031372308
2010,12,10,96922,1292024967,12252.186,87117,88589096675
2010,12,11,97097,1292111698,12252.186,86731,106178641053
2010,12,12,97268,1292198178,12252.186,86480,104052830159
2010,12,13,97409,1292284358,12252.186,86180,86096617718
2010,12,14,97581,1292370958,12252.186,86600,104516299000
2010,12,15,97776,1292456705,12252.186,85747,119671061867
2010,12,16,97949,1292543979,12252.186,87274,104312100220
2010,12,17,98115,1292630289,12252.186,86310,101209304205
2010,12,18,98276,1292716283,12252.186,85994,98521540337
2010,12,19,98460,1292802814,12252.186,86531,111897289853
2010,12,20,98619,1292889437,12252.186,86623,96591157744
2010,12,21,98815,1292975232,12252.186,85795,123793321945
2010,12,22,98972,1293061783,14484.383,86551,112735559308
2010,12,23,99117,1293148362,14484.383,86579,104187426171
2010,12,24,99265,1293234070,14484.383,85708,107423729747
2010,12,25,99433,1293320805,14484.383,86735,120496594076
2010,12,26,99578,1293407846,14484.383,87041,103634415626
2010,12,27,99744,1293494224,14484.383,86378,119554194140
2010,12,28,99913,1293580392,14484.383,86168,122011443228
2010,12,29,100078,1293666859,14484.383,86467,118711672991
2010,12,30,100247,1293753259,14484.383,86400,121683819908
2010,12,31,100409,1293839690,14484.383,86431,116601825384
2011,1,1,100590,1293926371,14484.383,86681,129901610213
2011,1,2,100765,1294012690,14484.383,86319,126122195084
2011,1,3,100921,1294098398,14484.383,85708,124377295207
2011,1,4,101062,1294185453,16307.669,87055,113352904741
2011,1,5,101216,1294271257,16307.669,85804,125708590349
2011,1,6,101357,1294358240,16307.669,86983,113536760950
2011,1,7,101521,1294444723,16307.669,86483,132820426787
2011,1,8,101691,1294531111,16307.669,86388,137831115663
2011,1,9,101854,1294617537,16307.669,86426,132097610227
2011,1,10,102016,1294700747,16307.669,83210,136361340621
2011,1,11,102188,1294790101,16307.669,89354,134823692690
2011,1,12,102355,1294876137,16307.669,86036,135952760413
2011,1,13,102543,1294962634,16307.669,86497,152232918717
2011,1,14,102724,1295049289,16307.669,86655,146297437099
2011,1,15,102881,1295134483,16307.669,85194,136163129679
2011,1,16,103055,1295222170,18437.925,87687,157035372827
2011,1,17,103236,1295308736,18437.925,86566,165578196208
2011,1,18,103377,1295393219,18437.925,84483,132166596971
2011,1,19,103546,1295480823,18437.925,87604,152768808235
2011,1,20,103732,1295567757,18437.925,86934,169431908955
2011,1,21,103906,1295653994,18437.925,86237,159781881522
2011,1,22,104071,1295740490,18437.925,86496,151063604381
2011,1,23,104241,1295827032,18437.925,86542,155558560753
2011,1,24,104429,1295913404,18437.925,86372,172368060820
2011,1,25,104585,1295999915,18437.925,86511,142799007436
2011,1,26,104765,1296086046,18437.925,86131,165495023220
2011,1,27,104925,1296172690,18437.925,86644,162892821941
2011,1,28,105083,1296256102,22012.717,83412,178902108557
2011,1,29,105244,1296345304,22012.717,89202,170641555046
2011,1,30,105400,1296431977,22012.717,86673,170166585792
2011,1,31,105570,1296517490,22012.717,85513,187953446826
2011,2,1,105734,1296604701,22012.717,87211,177789495534
2011,2,2,105892,1296690580,22012.717,85879,173941665500
2011,2,3,106052,1296777494,22012.717,86914,174045885504
2011,2,4,106246,1296863987,22012.717,86493,212057816382
2011,2,5,106425,1296950301,22012.717,86314,196067361073
2011,2,6,106602,1297036030,22012.717,85729,195199645424
2011,2,7,106805,1297122761,22012.717,86731,221286642810
2011,2,8,106973,1297208372,22012.717,85611,210723202130
2011,2,9,107165,1297295864,25998.276,87492,244844531456
2011,2,10,107351,1297381910,25998.276,86046,241371883715
2011,2,11,107537,1297468586,25998.276,86676,239617484727
2011,2,12,107733,1297554677,25998.276,86091,254215917866
2011,2,13,107931,1297641256,25998.276,86579,255362456032
2011,2,14,108127,1297727418,25998.276,86162,254006436538
2011,2,15,108352,1297814396,25998.276,86978,288853425850
2011,2,16,108584,1297900774,25998.276,86378,299908836842
2011,2,17,108815,1297987110,25998.276,86336,298761394562
2011,2,18,109027,1298073431,25998.276,86321,359606299429
2011,2,19,109188,1298159618,36460.443,86187,292005610786
2011,2,20,109386,1298245837,36460.443,86219,359620147105
2011,2,21,109580,1298332582,36460.443,86745,350218500404
2011,2,22,109791,1298417906,36460.443,85324,387251451079
2011,2,23,110034,1298505211,36460.443,87305,435861954958
2011,2,24,110241,1298591832,36460.443,86621,374221691809
2011,2,25,110466,1298678331,36460.443,86499,407336415125
2011,2,26,110742,1298764638,36460.443,86307,500777567925
2011,2,27,110986,1298850384,36460.443,85746,548141027654
2011,2,28,111136,1298936167,55590.366,85783,416535425839
2011,3,1,111266,1299023602,55590.366,87435,354991075866
2011,3,2,111434,1299110384,55590.366,86782,462209667077
2011,3,3,111620,1299196779,55590.366,86395,514024397566
2011,3,4,111841,1299282697,55590.366,85918,614140180418
2011,3,5,112118,1299368527,55590.366,85830,770548632536
2011,3,6,112392,1299455385,55590.366,86858,753182351816
2011,3,7,112603,1299542145,55590.366,86760,580660534416
2011,3,8,112790,1299628687,55590.366,86542,515910154992
2011,3,9,112950,1299714801,55590.366,86114,500132541460
2011,3,10,113060,1299801576,76193.781,86775,413817196129
2011,3,11,113190,1299887600,76193.781,86024,494541921149
2011,3,12,113330,1299974373,76193.781,86773,527986496285
2011,3,13,113447,1300059263,76193.781,84890,451033417392
2011,3,14,113559,1300146245,76193.781,86982,421374281963
2011,3,15,113671,1300233076,76193.781,86831,422107056164
2011,3,16,113807,1300319775,76193.781,86699,513338943186
2011,3,17,113948,1300406266,76193.781,86491,533491600790
2011,3,18,114068,1300492265,76193.781,85999,456632940006
2011,3,19,114183,1300578398,76193.781,86133,436925768276
2011,3,20,114320,1300665328,76193.781,86930,515739363131
2011,3,21,114468,1300749352,76193.781,84024,576418293059
2011,3,22,114587,1300837872,76193.781,88520,439931387323
2011,3,23,114744,1300924766,76193.781,86894,591274643492
2011,3,24,114896,1301010632,76193.781,85866,579297624938
2011,3,25,115069,1301096962,68978.837,86330,599433652681
2011,3,26,115207,1301183851,68978.837,86889,470532924344
2011,3,27,115350,1301269132,68978.837,85281,496774715494
2011,3,28,115518,1301356688,68978.837,87556,568458937770
2011,3,29,115681,1301443192,68978.837,86504,558247959709
2011,3,30,115837,1301529549,68978.837,86357,535183581627
2011,3,31,116038,1301614590,68978.837,85041,700234378672
2011,4,1,116214,1301701689,68978.837,87099,598653090773
2011,4,2,116394,1301788711,68978.837,87022,612800590106
2011,4,3,116569,1301875021,68978.837,86310,600693125982
2011,4,4,116747,1301961098,68978.837,86077,612644600215
2011,4,5,116941,1302047186,68978.837,86088,676965597805
2011,4,6,117089,1302134104,82346.9,86918,601564887392
2011,4,7,117236,1302220483,82346.9,86379,601888827523
2011,4,8,117402,1302306247,82346.9,85764,684557887807
2011,4,9,117558,1302393393,82346.9,87146,633117414898
2011,4,10,117731,1302479842,82346.9,86449,707771789213
2011,4,11,117894,1302566371,82346.9,86529,666243582551
2011,4,12,118057,1302652410,82346.9,86039,670037900888
2011,4,13,118251,1302738297,82346.9,85887,798879755414
2011,4,14,118411,1302825591,82346.9,87294,648250271716
2011,4,15,118547,1302911733,82346.9,86142,558381571548
2011,4,16,118720,1302998000,82346.9,86267,709264995951
2011,4,17,118900,1303084421,82346.9,86421,736648547477
2011,4,18,119048,1303170379,82346.9,85958,661426449369
2011,4,19,119202,1303257478,92349,87099,700799955554
2011,4,20,119346,1303343184,92349,85706,666412791018
2011,4,21,119493,1303429835,92349,86651,672877202486
2011,4,22,119669,1303516703,92349,86868,803609206993
2011,4,23,119841,1303602913,92349,86210,791339529663
2011,4,24,120003,1303688583,92349,85670,750029432712
2011,4,25,120195,1303774050,92349,85467,891035131174
2011,4,26,120390,1303862023,92349,87973,879178922642
2011,4,27,120573,1303948335,92349,86312,840953472742
2011,4,28,120737,1304034909,92349,86574,751360609083
2011,4,29,120937,1304120728,92349,85819,924354595574
2011,4,30,121126,1304207878,92349,87150,1002744005320
2011,5,1,121305,1304294222,109671.806,86344,975646141955
2011,5,2,121502,1304380771,109671.806,86549,1072158594418
2011,5,3,121698,1304467189,109671.806,86418,1068333187125
2011,5,4,121895,1304553551,109671.806,86362,1074480143909
2011,5,5,122114,1304639980,109671.806,86429,1193546891676
2011,5,6,122332,1304726062,109671.806,86082,1192886172224
2011,5,7,122546,1304812727,109671.806,86665,1163120985221
2011,5,8,122765,1304898977,109671.806,86250,1196023933921
2011,5,9,123004,1304984794,109671.806,85817,1381135237864
2011,5,10,123187,1305071789,157418.803,86995,1419883954697
2011,5,11,123378,1305158050,157418.803,86261,1497046699492
2011,5,12,123547,1305244617,157418.803,86567,1319929717199
2011,5,13,123754,1305331152,157418.803,86535,1617316498236
2011,5,14,123996,1305417547,157418.803,86395,1893839743942
2011,5,15,124216,1305503482,157418.803,85935,1730888405908
2011,5,16,124463,1305589348,157418.803,85866,1944877224392
2011,5,17,124720,1305676796,157418.803,87448,1987008438082
2011,5,18,125008,1305762430,157418.803,85634,2347775930629
2011,5,19,125179,1305849539,244116.212,87109,2053934772567
2011,5,20,125399,1305935722,244116.212,86183,2676440283884
2011,5,21,125619,1306022223,244116.212,86501,2666600998670
2011,5,22,125871,1306108606,244116.212,86383,3058642670246
2011,5,23,126157,1306194970,244116.212,86364,3472080367766
2011,5,24,126456,1306281358,244116.212,86388,3628893756435
2011,5,25,126763,1306367662,244116.212,86304,3729614421468
2011,5,26,127059,1306454263,244116.212,86601,4075624327722
2011,5,27,127226,1306540739,434883.681,86476,3597589255985
2011,5,28,127381,1306626884,434883.681,86145,3360737527113
2011,5,29,127561,1306712413,434883.681,85529,3930900793820
2011,5,30,127715,1306798950,434883.681,86537,3323929915346
2011,5,31,127865,1306886268,434883.681,87318,3208636000926
2011,6,1,128053,1306972558,434883.681,86290,4069399739315
2011,6,2,128243,1307058807,434883.681,86249,4114646267009
2011,6,3,128445,1307145556,434883.681,86749,4349305008122
2011,6,4,128669,1307231828,434883.681,86272,4849658131311
2011,6,5,128877,1307318379,434883.681,86551,4488737591509
2011,6,6,129110,1307404450,434883.681,86071,5631058346604
2011,6,7,129280,1307491152,567278.186,86702,4770667154818
2011,6,8,129465,1307576811,567278.186,85659,5262046400069
2011,6,9,129687,1307663813,567278.186,87002,6216983047518
2011,6,10,129910,1307750373,567278.186,86560,6276876159397
2011,6,11,130162,1307836090,567278.186,85717,7162910470694
2011,6,12,130395,1307922760,567278.186,86670,6550026686622
2011,6,13,130622,1308009430,567278.186,86670,6381356471515
2011,6,14,130869,1308095966,567278.186,86536,6954342591874
2011,6,15,131148,1308182369,567278.186,86403,9545372071321
2011,6,16,131328,1308268395,876967.874,86026,7865628933093
2011,6,17,131514,1308355120,876967.874,86725,8078154992677
2011,6,18,131711,1308440827,876967.874,85707,8657519496767
2011,6,19,131934,1308527930,876967.874,87103,9643069474293
2011,6,20,132168,1308614316,876967.874,86386,10202721646897
2011,6,21,132421,1308700409,876967.874,86093,11068690029386
2011,6,22,132681,1308787177,876967.874,86768,11286448565125
2011,6,23,132921,1308873405,876967.874,86228,10483504224208
2011,6,24,133137,1308959669,876967.874,86264,11481718018163
2011,6,25,133280,1309045773,1379213.333,86104,9812883991441
2011,6,26,133429,1309130584,1379213.333,84811,10406996120586
2011,6,27,133598,1309218462,1379213.333,87878,11391944186284
2011,6,28,133758,1309305136,1379213.333,86674,10935092250890
2011,6,29,133930,1309391800,1379213.333,86664,11756580583462
2011,6,30,134121,1309477591,1379213.333,85791,13188121676439
2011,7,1,134294,1309564558,1379213.333,86967,11783733782309
2011,7,2,134463,1309651127,1379213.333,86569,11564200478257
2011,7,3,134628,1309737257,1379213.333,86130,11348038622529
2011,7,4,134798,1309823209,1379213.333,85952,11716131647468
2011,7,5,134937,1309910006,1379213.333,86797,9486399142522
2011,7,6,135094,1309996737,1379213.333,86731,10932394489855
2011,7,7,135225,1310082201,1563051.846,85464,10280902242456
2011,7,8,135390,1310167998,1563051.846,85797,12910560191684
2011,7,9,135539,1310255894,1563051.846,87896,11380213294921
2011,7,10,135676,1310340519,1563051.846,84625,10868137654639
2011,7,11,135833,1310428718,1563051.846,88199,11950036624770
2011,7,12,135974,1310515190,1563051.846,86472,10946539634479
2011,7,13,136165,1310601318,1563051.846,86128,14887516294161
2011,7,14,136309,1310686747,1563051.846,85429,11315934225606
2011,7,15,136471,1310770321,1563051.846,83574,13012989244014
2011,7,16,136628,1310860754,1563051.846,90433,11654830429911
2011,7,17,136798,1310947154,1563051.846,86400,13208953883993
2011,7,18,136968,1311032522,1563051.846,85368,13368634799655
2011,7,19,137110,1311119982,1563051.846,87460,11044065283599
2011,7,20,137259,1311206371,1690921.604,86389,12519606654475
2011,7,21,137411,1311292367,1690921.604,85996,12836560475794
2011,7,22,137562,1311378533,1690921.604,86166,12726950324781
2011,7,23,137708,1311464809,1690921.604,86276,12289838851229
2011,7,24,137874,1311551240,1690921.604,86431,13948319428845
2011,7,25,138039,1311637636,1690921.604,86396,13869909990777
2011,7,26,138215,1311724697,1690921.604,87061,14681564954083
2011,7,27,138389,1311811037,1690921.604,86340,14635937230540
2011,7,28,138544,1311897385,1690921.604,86348,13036552249621
2011,7,29,138708,1311983279,1690921.604,85894,13866420129135
2011,7,30,138860,1312069997,1690921.604,86718,12729685355709
2011,7,31,139035,1312156711,1690921.604,86714,14656563801417
2011,8,1,139200,1312242029,1690921.604,85318,15011482829746
2011,8,2,139354,1312328177,1888815.526,86148,14492034554919
2011,8,3,139511,1312415635,1888815.526,87458,14562955287132
2011,8,4,139640,1312501806,1888815.526,86171,12144453678259
2011,8,5,139780,1312586786,1888815.526,84980,13364746151607
2011,8,6,139902,1312674810,1888815.526,88024,11243671175033
2011,8,7,140028,1312761086,1888815.526,86276,11847588149279
2011,8,8,140164,1312847770,1888815.526,86684,12727683589906
2011,8,9,140310,1312933779,1888815.526,86009,13770774377655
2011,8,10,140462,1313020365,1888815.526,86586,14241158373546
2011,8,11,140599,1313106825,1888815.526,86460,12854486759443
2011,8,12,140730,1313193571,1888815.526,86746,12250991627710
2011,8,13,140860,1313279295,1888815.526,85724,12302413779377
2011,8,14,140992,1313365730,1888815.526,86435,12388927178242
2011,8,15,141121,1313452064,1805728.389,86334,12117391310182
2011,8,16,141268,1313539023,1805728.389,86959,13110374125393
2011,8,17,141404,1313625209,1805728.389,86186,12238113329447
2011,8,18,141548,1313710697,1805728.389,85488,13063802994993
2011,8,19,141679,1313797334,1805728.389,86637,11726817797495
2011,8,20,141831,1313884351,1805728.389,87017,13547269446892
2011,8,21,141991,1313971100,1805728.389,86749,14304338960500
2011,8,22,142160,1314057135,1805728.389,86035,15234346485577
2011,8,23,142315,1314143534,1805728.389,86399,13913464028452
2011,8,24,142449,1314230209,1805728.389,86675,11990111873731
2011,8,25,142584,1314315577,1805728.389,85368,12264531101041
2011,8,26,142731,1314401547,1805728.389,85970,13261196040131
2011,8,27,142853,1314488142,1805728.389,86595,10926455501118
2011,8,28,142969,1314575137,1805728.389,86995,10341320166115
2011,8,29,143107,1314661912,1805728.389,86775,12333795726509
2011,8,30,143253,1314748370,1777801.609,86458,12934326031566
2011,8,31,143408,1314834283,1777801.609,85913,13775772750680
2011,9,1,143537,1314921479,1777801.609,87196,11296302242221
2011,9,2,143693,1315007426,1777801.609,85947,13859163951029
2011,9,3,143838,1315093887,1777801.609,86461,12805333810973
2011,9,4,143972,1315180742,1777801.609,86855,11780212643625
2011,9,5,144128,1315266479,1777801.609,85737,13893109907031
2011,9,6,144279,1315352895,1777801.609,86416,13342153828571
2011,9,7,144415,1315439698,1777801.609,86803,11963199068025
2011,9,8,144544,1315526280,1777801.609,86582,11376410458441
2011,9,9,144698,1315612420,1777801.609,86140,13650828471783
2011,9,10,144831,1315698079,1777801.609,85659,11855552474254
2011,9,11,144956,1315784310,1777801.609,86231,11068524906742
2011,9,12,145089,1315871884,1777801.609,87574,11596304489828
2011,9,13,145231,1315957880,1755452.106,85996,12520023338878
2011,9,14,145377,1316042306,1755452.106,84426,13038435676888
2011,9,15,145533,1316131049,1755452.106,88743,13253767219092
2011,9,16,145652,1316217267,1755452.106,86218,10406336461253
2011,9,17,145786,1316303944,1755452.106,86677,11656006297134
2011,9,18,145944,1316390269,1755452.106,86325,13799690507932
2011,9,19,146071,1316476212,1755452.106,85943,11141458782097
2011,9,20,146211,1316563096,1755452.106,86884,12148903297924
2011,9,21,146357,1316649560,1755452.106,86464,12731113185337
2011,9,22,146505,1316734655,1755452.106,85095,13113134605210
2011,9,23,146638,1316822228,1755452.106,87573,11450653151427
2011,9,24,146767,1316908416,1755452.106,86188,11284745102371
2011,9,25,146904,1316994439,1755452.106,86023,12007561768094
2011,9,26,147038,1317081308,1755452.106,86869,11630243905382
2011,9,27,147171,1317167858,1689360.182,86550,11576157833285
2011,9,28,147318,1317254245,1689360.182,86387,12346704594999
2011,9,29,147443,1317340440,1689360.182,86195,10522284839116
2011,9,30,147565,1317425929,1689360.182,85489,10354561423185
2011,10,1,147708,1317512981,1689360.182,87052,11918988454183
2011,10,2,147829,1317599256,1689360.182,86275,10176126975056
2011,10,3,147974,1317684253,1689360.182,84997,12377887176969
2011,10,4,148086,1317772659,1689360.182,88406,9192177388074
2011,10,5,148231,1317859048,1689360.182,86389,12178440268794
2011,10,6,148359,1317943794,1689360.182,84746,10959049181184
2011,10,7,148497,1318031869,1689360.182,88075,11368640922455
2011,10,8,148616,1318118368,1689360.182,86499,9982009749311
2011,10,9,148743,1318204092,1689360.182,85724,10749379813996
2011,10,10,148866,1318289668,1689360.182,85576,10428821728526
2011,10,11,148959,1318377268,1689360.182,87600,7703018792585
2011,10,12,149079,1318463356,1689360.182,86088,10113948611181
2011,10,13,149176,1318550103,1689360.182,86747,8113334561024
2011,10,14,149315,1318636512,1468217.83,86409,10231863635814
2011,10,15,149449,1318722593,1468217.83,86081,9816300620733
2011,10,16,149568,1318809117,1468217.83,86524,8672827888860
2011,10,17,149686,1318894423,1468217.83,85306,8722737119201
2011,10,18,149806,1318980105,1468217.83,85682,8831653180608
2011,10,19,149939,1319068363,1468217.83,88258,9502719596729
2011,10,20,150054,1319154112,1468217.83,85749,8457054542852
2011,10,21,150175,1319241050,1468217.83,86938,8776595451771
2011,10,22,150273,1319325299,1468217.83,84249,7335195211659
2011,10,23,150381,1319414165,1468217.83,88866,7663699694358
2011,10,24,150508,1319500678,1468217.83,86513,9257052012727
2011,10,25,150637,1319587007,1468217.83,86329,9422873378673
2011,10,26,150754,1319672669,1468217.83,85662,8612872278552
2011,10,27,150854,1319757286,1468217.83,84617,7452341214146
2011,10,28,150959,1319846081,1468217.83,88795,7456776781838
2011,10,29,151072,1319929192,1468217.83,83111,8573739635724
2011,10,30,151183,1320019150,1468217.83,89958,7780966448057
2011,10,31,151314,1320105352,1203480.29,86202,8079356350591
2011,11,1,151464,1320190577,1203480.29,85225,9097521537813
2011,11,2,151618,1320278300,1203480.29,87723,9074152810647
2011,11,3,151743,1320364264,1203480.29,85964,7516094654546
2011,11,4,151890,1320450302,1203480.29,86038,8831325084252
2011,11,5,152036,1320537581,1203480.29,87279,8646531687025
2011,11,6,152180,1320623152,1203480.29,85571,8698306928021
2011,11,7,152312,1320710120,1203480.29,86968,7845367494859
2011,11,8,152461,1320796228,1203480.29,86108,8944202217832
2011,11,9,152622,1320882976,1203480.29,86748,9593238650088
2011,11,10,152763,1320969188,1203480.29,86212,8453766258485
2011,11,11,152883,1321055839,1203480.29,86651,7158244203161
2011,11,12,153025,1321142264,1203480.29,86425,8492739429142
2011,11,13,153169,1321226133,1203480.29,83869,8874826481032
2011,11,14,153312,1321315170,1192515.946,89037,8250874691688
2011,11,15,153477,1321400551,1192515.946,85381,9897984368134
2011,11,16,153612,1321486824,1192515.946,86273,8014619795744
2011,11,17,153751,1321573525,1192515.946,86701,8211353520696
2011,11,18,153884,1321659584,1192515.946,86059,7915519116634
2011,11,19,154007,1321746003,1192515.946,86419,7289872478961
2011,11,20,154150,1321833567,1192515.946,87564,8364394380768
2011,11,21,154268,1321919869,1192515.946,86302,7003017367034
2011,11,22,154408,1322005670,1192515.946,85801,8357179736691
2011,11,23,154542,1322092065,1192515.946,86395,7944018480796
2011,11,24,154655,1322178210,1192515.946,86145,6718501594523
2011,11,25,154790,1322264995,1192515.946,86785,7967336447984
2011,11,26,154910,1322351719,1192515.946,86724,7087058239813
2011,11,27,155024,1322437694,1192515.946,85975,6791359544636
2011,11,28,155151,1322522962,1192515.946,85268,7628544796629
2011,11,29,155289,1322607115,1090732.323,84153,8103012092835
2011,11,30,155451,1322697519,1090732.323,90404,8394704487420
2011,12,1,155633,1322783387,1090732.323,85868,9929287483422
2011,12,2,155779,1322869761,1090732.323,86374,7918590200339
2011,12,3,155931,1322956426,1090732.323,86665,8216330328366
2011,12,4,156067,1323043109,1090732.323,86683,7349926899060
2011,12,5,156225,1323129515,1090732.323,86406,8566259586736
2011,12,6,156396,1323215382,1090732.323,85867,9329274359140
2011,12,7,156534,1323301875,1090732.323,86493,7474397150125
2011,12,8,156698,1323388707,1090732.323,86832,8847938361379
2011,12,9,156845,1323474890,1090732.323,86183,7990496613269
2011,12,10,156989,1323560870,1090732.323,85980,7845905915905
2011,12,11,157141,1323647544,1090732.323,86674,8215477166253
2011,12,12,157268,1323733853,1090732.323,86309,6960495459283
2011,12,13,157400,1323819679,1155055.958,85826,7626665241677
2011,12,14,157553,1323906575,1155055.958,86896,8734831498174
2011,12,15,157665,1323990878,1155055.958,84303,6590796147085
2011,12,16,157783,1324076356,1155055.958,85478,6848422436115
2011,12,17,157933,1324166223,1155055.958,89867,8280449276844
2011,12,18,158077,1324250605,1155055.958,84382,8465947355545
2011,12,19,158236,1324338926,1155055.958,88321,8930916580109
2011,12,20,158370,1324425511,1155055.958,86585,7677591893263
2011,12,21,158519,1324511855,1155055.958,86344,8560852029028
2011,12,22,158667,1324596300,1155055.958,84445,8694621114650
2011,12,23,158809,1324684412,1155055.958,88112,7994957719949
2011,12,24,158954,1324770361,1155055.958,85949,8369317820142
2011,12,25,159128,1324857474,1155055.958,87113,9908984844834
2011,12,26,159305,1324943278,1155055.958,85804,10243887268388
2011,12,27,159450,1325030157,1159947.196,86879,8314547901128
2011,12,28,159605,1325116698,1159947.196,86541,8922937885561
2011,12,29,159743,1325202736,1159947.196,86038,7990737440283
2011,12,30,159885,1325289488,1159947.196,86752,8154680110951
2011,12,31,160036,1325375846,1159947.196,86358,8711089030039
2012,1,1,160189,1325462368,1159947.196,86522,8809737373214
2012,1,2,160340,1325548193,1159947.196,85825,8765187607995
2012,1,3,160499,1325634478,1159947.196,86285,9180364010575
2012,1,4,160648,1325721478,1159947.196,87000,8532279952955
2012,1,5,160795,1325807703,1159947.196,86225,8493412413545
2012,1,6,160966,1325894274,1159947.196,86571,9840604035382
2012,1,7,161150,1325979623,1159947.196,85349,10740326078994
2012,1,8,161313,1326066849,1159947.196,87226,9461848523729
2012,1,9,161477,1326152434,1250776.824,85585,10289482513918
2012,1,10,161618,1326239888,1250776.824,87454,8661221024084
2012,1,11,161771,1326326089,1250776.824,86201,9534958644517
2012,1,12,161926,1326412163,1250776.824,86074,9673851119137
2012,1,13,162066,1326498378,1250776.824,86215,8723381985547
2012,1,14,162216,1326585156,1250776.824,86778,9285842419127
2012,1,15,162355,1326671757,1250776.824,86601,8622467781291
2012,1,16,162531,1326758387,1250776.824,86630,10914002284557
2012,1,17,162687,1326844012,1250776.824,85625,9787318035444
2012,1,18,162815,1326930870,1250776.824,86858,7916620590022
2012,1,19,162965,1327017213,1250776.824,86343,9332624919762
2012,1,20,163110,1327103829,1250776.824,86616,8993102956330
2012,1,21,163274,1327190011,1250776.824,86182,10222731791272
2012,1,22,163410,1327276223,1250776.824,86212,8800835439477
2012,1,23,163580,1327361083,1307748.315,84860,11249121742112
2012,1,24,163719,1327448004,1307748.315,86921,8982022044341
2012,1,25,163867,1327533903,1307748.315,85899,9677376504093
2012,1,26,164005,1327621665,1307748.315,87762,8831950068033
2012,1,27,164146,1327708284,1307748.315,86619,9143026479260
2012,1,28,164291,1327793320,1307748.315,85036,9577434916844
2012,1,29,164458,1327881187,1307748.315,87867,10675167616835
2012,1,30,164630,1327967553,1307748.315,86366,11185867519807
2012,1,31,164780,1328053905,1307748.315,86352,9756698591995
2012,2,1,164921,1328140491,1307748.315,86586,9146511105802
2012,2,2,165080,1328226595,1307748.315,86104,10371888216865
2012,2,3,165238,1328312993,1307748.315,86398,10271584142914
2012,2,4,165395,1328399550,1307748.315,86557,10487594926648
2012,2,5,165537,1328485569,1379668.491,86019,9778429349439
2012,2,6,165683,1328571373,1379668.491,85804,10082771586533
2012,2,7,165820,1328658770,1379668.491,87397,9288779406231
2012,2,8,165965,1328744845,1379668.491,86075,9982184166849
2012,2,9,166110,1328831830,1379668.491,86985,9877754810157
2012,2,10,166248,1328917934,1379668.491,86104,9497085905600
2012,2,11,166398,1329004388,1379668.491,86454,10281128200066
2012,2,12,166556,1329090957,1379668.491,86569,10815068971613
2012,2,13,166693,1329175963,1379668.491,85006,9550048864391
2012,2,14,166831,1329263716,1379668.491,87753,9318622552115
2012,2,15,166965,1329347881,1379668.491,84165,9434260804589
2012,2,16,167103,1329435334,1379668.491,87453,9350589285854
2012,2,17,167255,1329522695,1379668.491,87361,10310045895849
2012,2,18,167426,1329608838,1376323.268,86143,11746455110903
2012,2,19,167584,1329695313,1376323.268,86475,10800573827526
2012,2,20,167724,1329782087,1376323.268,86774,9537152603529
2012,2,21,167853,1329868768,1376323.268,86681,8797233330290
2012,2,22,168012,1329955033,1376323.268,86265,10895390774520
2012,2,23,168178,1330041460,1376323.268,86427,11353740488099
2012,2,24,168327,1330127972,1376323.268,86512,10180995132201
2012,2,25,168492,1330213066,1376323.268,85094,11462129712274
2012,2,26,168642,1330300781,1376323.268,87715,10108755792118
2012,2,27,168796,1330386570,1376323.268,85789,10611320425934
2012,2,28,168956,1330473455,1376323.268,86885,10885678179118
2012,2,29,169135,1330559906,1376323.268,86451,12239490043355
2012,3,1,169286,1330646193,1376323.268,86287,10344556859485
2012,3,2,169420,1330732581,1376323.268,86388,9631188082407
2012,3,3,169533,1330818161,1497001.437,85580,8483563351405
2012,3,4,169670,1330905484,1497001.437,87323,10087278192261
2012,3,5,169815,1330991174,1497001.437,85690,10879775601707
2012,3,6,169952,1331078255,1497001.437,87081,10115310958565
2012,3,7,170106,1331164520,1497001.437,86265,11478051599765
2012,3,8,170262,1331250977,1497001.437,86457,11601296201413
2012,3,9,170430,1331337464,1497001.437,86487,12489369873816
2012,3,10,170595,1331423440,1497001.437,85976,12339250670291
2012,3,11,170729,1331510064,1497001.437,86624,9946004305216
2012,3,12,170895,1331596075,1497001.437,86011,12408982430676
2012,3,13,171055,1331683134,1497001.437,87059,11816487147214
2012,3,14,171192,1331769004,1497001.437,85870,10257964290006
2012,3,15,171313,1331855404,1497001.437,86400,9004377756110
2012,3,16,171466,1331941309,1497001.437,85905,11458346248589
2012,3,17,171636,1332028671,1498317.225,87362,12522404943104
2012,3,18,171796,1332113637,1498317.225,84966,12118209131739
2012,3,19,171939,1332199465,1498317.225,85828,10721873489966
2012,3,20,172099,1332287165,1498317.225,87700,11740430525511
2012,3,21,172257,1332374200,1498317.225,87035,11682257828732
2012,3,22,172415,1332460489,1498317.225,86289,11783255225159
2012,3,23,172541,1332546341,1498317.225,85852,9444604187512
2012,3,24,172726,1332633481,1498317.225,87140,13662110903514
2012,3,25,172882,1332719711,1498317.225,86230,11642060340486
2012,3,26,173033,1332804555,1498317.225,84844,11453004876611
2012,3,27,173189,1332892758,1498317.225,88203,11381640796346
2012,3,28,173339,1332979030,1498317.225,86272,11188839047076
2012,3,29,173480,1333065214,1498317.225,86184,11199394424408
2012,3,30,173634,1333151791,1626578.3,86577,12420257300939
2012,3,31,173804,1333238316,1626578.3,86525,13725941672112
2012,4,1,173946,1333324649,1626578.3,86333,11490696329158
2012,4,2,174062,1333410921,1626578.3,86272,9393403078691
2012,4,3,174195,1333496038,1626578.3,85117,10916166931668
2012,4,4,174332,1333583555,1626578.3,87517,10936112791235
2012,4,5,174449,1333668822,1626578.3,85267,9586050535515
2012,4,6,174585,1333756629,1626578.3,87807,10820432112971
2012,4,7,174714,1333841251,1626578.3,84622,10649795304945
2012,4,8,174864,1333928972,1626578.3,87721,11946000285459
2012,4,9,175010,1334015065,1626578.3,86093,11847312657394
2012,4,10,175157,1334102202,1626578.3,87137,11785542183228
2012,4,11,175298,1334187783,1626578.3,85581,11510033600663
2012,4,12,175425,1334274917,1577937.563,87134,10103297617423
2012,4,13,175548,1334357883,1577937.563,82966,10047421812787
2012,4,14,175687,1334446700,1577937.563,88817,10606409153400
2012,4,15,175794,1334534035,1577937.563,87335,8303192929087
2012,4,16,175944,1334620523,1577937.563,86488,11753983608041
2012,4,17,176079,1334706898,1577937.563,86375,10592424669905
2012,4,18,176209,1334792111,1577937.563,85213,10339205634351
2012,4,19,176366,1334879763,1577937.563,87652,12139128210338
2012,4,20,176520,1334966171,1577937.563,86408,12078595676404
2012,4,21,176674,1335052556,1577937.563,86385,12081811601629
2012,4,22,176814,1335138702,1577937.563,86146,11013937176492
2012,4,23,176949,1335224509,1577937.563,85807,10662541294568
2012,4,24,177087,1335311192,1577937.563,86683,10789338757875
2012,4,25,177214,1335398046,1577937.563,86854,9909769947661
2012,4,26,177369,1335484564,1577937.563,86518,12141571527721
2012,4,27,177504,1335571060,1508612.691,86496,10247142845059
2012,4,28,177656,1335656153,1508612.691,85093,11574103748835
2012,4,29,177835,1335743745,1508612.691,87592,13241165277323
2012,4,30,178014,1335830113,1508612.691,86368,13428817953076
2012,5,1,178184,1335916538,1508612.691,86425,12745214572335
2012,5,2,178334,1336003015,1508612.691,86477,11239015298328
2012,5,3,178491,1336088569,1508612.691,85554,11890413319830
2012,5,4,178652,1336175379,1508612.691,86810,12016935720042
2012,5,5,178819,1336261676,1508612.691,86297,12538869750918
2012,5,6,178983,1336348527,1508612.691,86851,12235075202080
2012,5,7,179153,1336433746,1508612.691,85219,12925581964281
2012,5,8,179329,1336521307,1508612.691,87561,13023855625817
2012,5,9,179495,1336607769,1508612.691,86462,13243375738563
2012,5,10,179624,1336691554,1733233.96,83785,11449959885490
2012,5,11,179767,1336780550,1733233.96,88996,11961416181722
2012,5,12,179895,1336866119,1733233.96,85569,11135521588809
2012,5,13,180035,1336953568,1733233.96,87449,11917639366641
2012,5,14,180174,1337039995,1733233.96,86427,11972432941037
2012,5,15,180304,1337125361,1733233.96,85366,11336408092092
2012,5,16,180425,1337212764,1733233.96,87403,10305666448338
2012,5,17,180541,1337299183,1733233.96,86419,9992307810692
2012,5,18,180686,1337385287,1733233.96,86104,12536079170135
2012,5,19,180835,1337471314,1733233.96,86027,12893432219870
2012,5,20,180973,1337557599,1733233.96,86285,11905861721233
2012,5,21,181099,1337644526,1733233.96,86927,10790284727139
2012,5,22,181214,1337730180,1733233.96,85654,9994641995865
2012,5,23,181344,1337817402,1733233.96,87222,11095180266327
2012,5,24,181469,1337903427,1591099.24,86025,10611094936944
2012,5,25,181590,1337989293,1591099.24,85866,9629888702265
2012,5,26,181732,1338076296,1591099.24,87003,11153501908297
2012,5,27,181891,1338162962,1591099.24,86666,12537342821208
2012,5,28,182033,1338248656,1591099.24,85694,11323874793189
2012,5,29,182159,1338335099,1591099.24,86443,9960883117351
2012,5,30,182290,1338422309,1591099.24,87210,10265075281707
2012,5,31,182428,1338507972,1591099.24,85663,11008874890256
2012,6,1,182580,1338595168,1591099.24,87196,11912534044412
2012,6,2,182740,1338680540,1591099.24,85372,12807420139434
2012,6,3,182893,1338766424,1591099.24,85884,12174084087111
2012,6,4,183048,1338853691,1591099.24,87267,12137766580027
2012,6,5,183195,1338940715,1591099.24,87024,11543444596112
2012,6,6,183348,1339026774,1591099.24,86059,12149328225258
2012,6,7,183487,1339113422,1583202.005,86648,10950460479062
2012,6,8,183628,1339199872,1583202.005,86450,11090479095087
2012,6,9,183799,1339286049,1583202.005,86177,13492764227437
2012,6,10,183965,1339372621,1583202.005,86572,13038475935078
2012,6,11,184105,1339458840,1583202.005,86219,11041326354226
2012,6,12,184261,1339544856,1583202.005,86016,12332228077323
2012,6,13,184411,1339631069,1583202.005,86213,11830815831575
2012,6,14,184567,1339716316,1583202.005,85247,12443475199116
2012,6,15,184726,1339804411,1583202.005,88095,12272754785230
2012,6,16,184882,1339890801,1583202.005,86390,12278839336718
2012,6,17,185046,1339976877,1583202.005,86076,12955612911625
2012,6,18,185221,1340063958,1583202.005,87081,13665037679503
2012,6,19,185368,1340148698,1583202.005,84740,11795736638917
2012,6,20,185513,1340234215,1583202.005,85517,11832000754877
2012,6,21,185649,1340322837,1726592.904,88622,11373179446957
2012,6,22,185787,1340409480,1726592.904,86643,11811237933742
2012,6,23,185951,1340495993,1726592.904,86513,14057635844968
2012,6,24,186082,1340582349,1726592.904,86356,11249380099502
2012,6,25,186236,1340667386,1726592.904,85037,13429585348199
2012,6,26,186385,1340753572,1726592.904,86186,12820334496952
2012,6,27,186548,1340841093,1726592.904,87521,13811000671789
2012,6,28,186685,1340927111,1726592.904,86018,11810846895221
2012,6,29,186831,1341013784,1726592.904,86673,12491622175003
2012,6,30,186963,1341100400,1726592.904,86616,11301227578423
2012,7,1,187105,1341185838,1726592.904,85438,12325004430506
2012,7,2,187257,1341273368,1726592.904,87530,12877645711580
2012,7,3,187417,1341359886,1726592.904,86518,13713974081871
2012,7,4,187567,1341446237,1726592.904,86351,12980748144090
2012,7,5,187711,1341532633,1751481.26,86396,12536934431406
2012,7,6,187866,1341617989,1751481.26,85356,13660386895979
2012,7,7,188032,1341703727,1751481.26,85738,14564651449485
2012,7,8,188185,1341791997,1751481.26,88270,13038981244178
2012,7,9,188348,1341878269,1751481.26,86272,14212912900728
2012,7,10,188498,1341964769,1751481.26,86500,13044892603691
2012,7,11,188632,1342050653,1751481.26,85884,11737021266622
2012,7,12,188782,1342137419,1751481.26,86766,13004900654856
2012,7,13,188945,1342223403,1751481.26,85984,14260518489156
2012,7,14,189106,1342309160,1751481.26,85757,14122827434518
2012,7,15,189246,1342395078,1751481.26,85918,12257706916726
2012,7,16,189396,1342482517,1751481.26,87439,12904804609148
2012,7,17,189568,1342569507,1751481.26,86990,15242753561869
2012,7,18,189723,1342655479,1866419.784,85972,14446787240076
2012,7,19,189858,1342741252,1866419.784,85773,12616891225898
2012,7,20,190006,1342828214,1866419.784,86962,13642733219840
2012,7,21,190147,1342915082,1866419.784,86868,13011533392322
2012,7,22,190302,1342999902,1866419.784,84820,14648819262005
2012,7,23,190443,1343087761,1866419.784,87859,12864770629352
2012,7,24,190604,1343173875,1866419.784,86114,14987227644849
2012,7,25,190764,1343260296,1866419.784,86421,14841229671889
2012,7,26,190933,1343345442,1866419.784,85146,15910786377308
2012,7,27,191111,1343432573,1866419.784,87131,16376326729754
2012,7,28,191264,1343519910,1866419.784,87337,14043079404317
2012,7,29,191430,1343605907,1866419.784,85997,15473693048358
2012,7,30,191606,1343692739,1866419.784,86832,16980852475972
2012,7,31,191736,1343778830,2036702.166,86091,13200597486532
2012,8,1,191870,1343865007,2036702.166,86177,13601938710545
2012,8,2,192035,1343951295,2036702.166,86288,16727110575437
2012,8,3,192197,1344038336,2036702.166,87041,16280904513338
2012,8,4,192353,1344124196,2036702.166,85860,15893556889934
2012,8,5,192492,1344210686,2036702.166,86490,14058412744114
2012,8,6,192632,1344296891,2036702.166,86205,14206364914267
2012,8,7,192796,1344383430,2036702.166,86539,16577512429510
2012,8,8,192962,1344470081,2036702.166,86651,16757988788696
2012,8,9,193132,1344556053,2036702.166,85972,17297338241673
2012,8,10,193288,1344642461,2036702.166,86408,15792759866791
2012,8,11,193456,1344729510,2036702.166,87049,16882349308105
2012,8,12,193615,1344815739,2036702.166,86229,16744311872158
2012,8,13,193775,1344901258,2190899.4,85519,17597403288260
2012,8,14,193932,1344987704,2190899.4,86446,17089802652109
2012,8,15,194099,1345074692,2190899.4,86988,18065060615339
2012,8,16,194253,1345160405,2190899.4,85713,16906601755175
2012,8,17,194391,1345247625,2190899.4,87220,14888306533508
2012,8,18,194542,1345332907,2190899.4,85282,16661030843770
2012,8,19,194724,1345420468,2190899.4,87561,19558834548732
2012,8,20,194898,1345505961,2190899.4,85493,19151420370407
2012,8,21,195071,1345593589,2190899.4,87628,18577424344421
2012,8,22,195227,1345679751,2190899.4,86162,17036921598731
2012,8,23,195392,1345766348,2190899.4,86597,17929302519239
2012,8,24,195540,1345852759,2190899.4,86411,16116657700936
2012,8,25,195678,1345938997,2190899.4,86238,16637718297830
2012,8,26,195857,1346024918,2440679.848,85921,21826093556543
2012,8,27,196002,1346110366,2440679.848,85448,17788395502490
2012,8,28,196153,1346197594,2440679.848,87228,18146451365144
2012,8,29,196321,1346284367,2440679.848,86773,20295293949664
2012,8,30,196475,1346370393,2440679.848,86026,18765565992487
2012,8,31,196615,1346457364,2440679.848,86971,16874241048685
2012,9,1,196776,1346543369,2440679.848,86005,19623336561618
2012,9,2,196940,1346630032,2440679.848,86663,19837219821296
2012,9,3,197097,1346716086,2440679.848,86054,19124904135318
2012,9,4,197250,1346802834,2440679.848,86748,18488540830214
2012,9,5,197430,1346888816,2440679.848,85982,21945002715197
2012,9,6,197601,1346975251,2440679.848,86435,21166616854853
2012,9,7,197769,1347062047,2694089.061,86796,22384023651673
2012,9,8,197914,1347147874,2694089.061,85827,19548609874336
2012,9,9,198073,1347234615,2694089.061,86741,21210187586577
2012,9,10,198223,1347321585,2694089.061,86970,19956923786855
2012,9,11,198368,1347407923,2694089.061,86338,19432909491587
2012,9,12,198523,1347494030,2694089.061,86107,20828838349970
2012,9,13,198653,1347580104,2694089.061,86074,17476045885057
2012,9,14,198815,1347667166,2694089.061,87062,21530701737637
2012,9,15,198959,1347753540,2694089.061,86374,19290845801665
2012,9,16,199120,1347839243,2694089.061,85703,21737102905039
2012,9,17,199288,1347925635,2694089.061,86392,22501297587182
2012,9,18,199455,1348012752,2694089.061,87117,22181216946638
2012,9,19,199596,1348099156,2694089.061,86404,18992310916613
2012,9,20,199748,1348185313,2864184.211,86157,21694223682777
2012,9,21,199917,1348271752,2864184.211,86439,24051256964728
2012,9,22,200074,1348357719,2864184.211,85967,22466151785472
2012,9,23,200232,1348443806,2864184.211,86087,22577732387713
2012,9,24,200385,1348530807,2864184.211,87001,21633560079357
2012,9,25,200524,1348614618,2864184.211,83811,20402086542255
2012,9,26,200664,1348703864,2864184.211,89246,19297457059278
2012,9,27,200825,1348790332,2864184.211,86468,22905051355636
2012,9,28,200983,1348876161,2864184.211,85829,22645600532000
2012,9,29,201151,1348962696,2864184.211,86535,23882417787655
2012,9,30,201310,1349048744,2864184.211,86048,22730927221788
2012,10,1,201441,1349134972,2864184.211,86228,18688902155192
2012,10,2,201587,1349221550,2864184.211,86578,20744650116987
2012,10,3,201720,1349307529,2864184.211,85979,20180575701659
2012,10,4,201852,1349394912,3054674.137,87383,19809180512778
2012,10,5,201987,1349481429,3054674.137,86517,20471848831005
2012,10,6,202142,1349567437,3054674.137,86008,23643817502193
2012,10,7,202267,1349654218,3054674.137,86781,18897750545670
2012,10,8,202445,1349739853,3054674.137,85635,27270521897679
2012,10,9,202587,1349827018,3054674.137,87165,21373269362220
2012,10,10,202736,1349912977,3054674.137,85959,22741529131373
2012,10,11,202874,1349998785,3054674.137,85808,21099689095126
2012,10,12,203023,1350086303,3054674.137,87518,22336423394087
2012,10,13,203171,1350172744,3054674.137,86441,22462944402342
2012,10,14,203298,1350257260,3054674.137,84516,19714671081753
2012,10,15,203467,1350345523,3054674.137,88263,25120759695685
2012,10,16,203622,1350431364,3054674.137,85841,23696012815214
2012,10,17,203764,1350516848,3072368.612,85484,21918916147969
2012,10,18,203921,1350604218,3072368.612,87370,23712126197474
2012,10,19,204057,1350690514,3072368.612,86296,20796077325824
2012,10,20,204214,1350776891,3072368.612,86377,23984723547626
2012,10,21,204375,1350863889,3072368.612,86998,24420232151584
2012,10,22,204532,1350950148,3072368.612,86259,24017534006576
2012,10,23,204662,1351036795,3072368.612,86647,19798076709337
2012,10,24,204824,1351122239,3072368.612,85444,25018808569778
2012,10,25,204967,1351209237,3072368.612,86998,21690019861345
2012,10,26,205132,1351294628,3072368.612,85391,25497935936736
2012,10,27,205307,1351381889,3072368.612,87261,26463729211211
2012,10,28,205473,1351467670,3072368.612,85781,25535840923822
2012,10,29,205631,1351554744,3072368.612,87074,23944279447204
2012,10,30,205775,1351640067,3304406.814,85323,23940758860891
2012,10,31,205918,1351727767,3304406.814,87700,23141409869729
2012,11,1,206055,1351814365,3304406.814,86598,22452570848938
2012,11,2,206198,1351900071,3304406.814,85706,23679808246509
2012,11,3,206344,1351986848,3304406.814,86777,23878200481403
2012,11,4,206501,1352072780,3304406.814,85932,25929736470382
2012,11,5,206661,1352159965,3304406.814,87185,26045432952599
2012,11,6,206796,1352246307,3304406.814,86342,22190395079760
2012,11,7,206953,1352332621,3304406.814,86314,25814979196571
2012,11,8,207107,1352418718,3304406.814,86097,25385520480079
2012,11,9,207259,1352505527,3304406.814,86809,24850332550470
2012,11,10,207403,1352591858,3304406.814,86331,23672770670733
2012,11,11,207550,1352678216,3304406.814,86358,24158397859776
2012,11,12,207682,1352764250,3304406.814,86034,21887495106812
2012,11,13,207822,1352851033,3368818.544,86783,23338424809806
2012,11,14,207965,1352937360,3368818.544,86327,23967728091684
2012,11,15,208101,1353023542,3368818.544,86182,22832834056341
2012,11,16,208246,1353110234,3368818.544,86692,24200618210694
2012,11,17,208386,1353196166,3368818.544,85932,23572768776997
2012,11,18,208532,1353282710,3368818.544,86544,24409190231522
2012,11,19,208679,1353368965,3368818.544,86255,24658720362554
2012,11,20,208825,1353454699,3368818.544,85734,24639804038034
2012,11,21,208977,1353541786,3368818.544,87087,25253858236576
2012,11,22,209121,1353628546,3368818.544,86760,24014880456964
2012,11,23,209284,1353714288,3368818.544,85742,27506255656239
2012,11,24,209435,1353801517,3368818.544,87229,25046874167690
2012,11,25,209581,1353887215,3368818.544,85698,24650154722360
2012,11,26,209738,1353973977,3368818.544,86762,26442707475564
2012,11,27,209886,1354060161,3438961.434,86184,25360766718089
2012,11,28,210049,1354140531,3438961.434,80370,29955791758788
notes:
- the aggregation to day-level is not 100% correct: the work done for a block is counted completely for the day it was found on (instead of counting part of it for the previous day, weighted by time since previous block). This is a negligible error in my mind and it should cancel out pretty well with the same error being made on the subsequent day boundary, so I didn't take the considerable effort to fix that.
- regarding example chart: difficulty and hashrate axis are not aligned correctly
please point out any mistakes/problems
donations: 1MoLECHau3nb9zV78uKraNdcZsJ2REwxuL
This is mildly silly. Price of course drives difficulty. What we mean when we say this is not to exclude other factors, but simply that it is what you can see and work with. It is the "variable" so to speak that you can plug in to a function and get a reasonable output.
"Profitability" is of course what people work with on an individual level (and it depends on the price of bitcoin!), but it varies drastically by locale, depending on cost of hardware, cost of electricity, cost of infrastructure, etc. Those factors will be mostly constant within their region, but vary as you look at different regions. How can I graph profitability when it varies by person?
What is the same for everyone? How much the value of a bitcoin is worth in fiat. You cannot determine or control profitability, so it is pointless to try to work that out (the bitcoinx charts only show you the value of the coinage received, not the fixed cost to produce them). So if costs are mostly constant/fixed then profitability will vary in proportion to the price of bitcoin. Hence all you need to look at is the price of bitcoin. A useful reduction.
So, based on their own personal calculations of profitability, people will act semi-rationally and in a predictable manner, therefore using past trends of their reactions to price changes, you can model their future reactions to hypothetical price scenarios. That is the point of graphing Price and difficulty. Make sense?
(This of course falls apart when the constants I mentioned change drastically, as in the case of ASICs, but then you will be able to graph anew when enough data comes out).
"Profitability" is of course what people work with on an individual level (and it depends on the price of bitcoin!), but it varies drastically by locale, depending on cost of hardware, cost of electricity, cost of infrastructure, etc. Those factors will be mostly constant within their region, but vary as you look at different regions. How can I graph profitability when it varies by person?
What is the same for everyone? How much the value of a bitcoin is worth in fiat. You cannot determine or control profitability, so it is pointless to try to work that out (the bitcoinx charts only show you the value of the coinage received, not the fixed cost to produce them). So if costs are mostly constant/fixed then profitability will vary in proportion to the price of bitcoin. Hence all you need to look at is the price of bitcoin. A useful reduction.
So, based on their own personal calculations of profitability, people will act semi-rationally and in a predictable manner, therefore using past trends of their reactions to price changes, you can model their future reactions to hypothetical price scenarios. That is the point of graphing Price and difficulty. Make sense?
(This of course falls apart when the constants I mentioned change drastically, as in the case of ASICs, but then you will be able to graph anew when enough data comes out).
bitcoinx.com has usd/mhash charts.. I posted because price doesn't drive difficulty, which is the subject of the post.
Wait now - you're saying the exchange rate has no influence on difficulty? It doesn't lead or "drive" difficulty to any extent?
The price of btc does not control difficulty. Profits drive difficulty, and it looks similar to the price because they are similar.
Can you post a link to your work on the subject? How exactly are you estimating profits?
It's just common sense. The faster a miner can pay for itself the more people will buy them, it's not hard to get a ruff estimate on how long it will take. Simply looking at the price of bitcoin when purchasing mining equipment makes little sense.
I was tempted to write a sarcastic reply, but you do seem to be serious so I'll attempt to do the same.
Of course it is mining profits that drive difficulty. Everyone realises that, and I think everyone realises that I'm not implying a magical relationship between price and difficulty here. However in order to show a relationship you need average miner earnings per hash over time. I don't have this information, but I do have USDBTC price over time, and of course USDBTC will, over time, correlated well with changes in difficulty. Increases in costs or exponential changes in miner $/hash can't be easily determined rigorously and will of course lead to differences between the model and reality.
I assumed you'd posted because you knew of a way to obtain the information I couldn't. But now it's clear you don't have that information and I'm not sure why you posted.
bitcoinx.com has usd/mhash charts.. I posted because price doesn't drive difficulty, which is the subject of the post.
The price of btc does not control difficulty. Profits drive difficulty, and it looks similar to the price because they are similar.
Can you post a link to your work on the subject? How exactly are you estimating profits?
It's just common sense. The faster a miner can pay for itself the more people will buy them, it's not hard to get a ruff estimate on how long it will take. Simply looking at the price of bitcoin when purchasing mining equipment makes little sense.
I was tempted to write a sarcastic reply, but you do seem to be serious so I'll attempt to do the same.
Of course it is mining profits that drive difficulty. Everyone realises that, and I think everyone realises that I'm not implying a magical relationship between price and difficulty here. However in order to show a relationship you need average miner earnings per hash over time. I don't have this information, but I do have USDBTC price over time, and of course USDBTC will, over time, correlated well with changes in difficulty. Increases in costs or exponential changes in miner $/hash can't be easily determined rigorously and will of course lead to differences between the model and reality.
I assumed you'd posted because you knew of a way to obtain the information I couldn't. But now it's clear you don't have that information and I'm not sure why you posted.
The price of btc does not control difficulty. Profits drive difficulty, and it looks similar to the price because they are similar.
Can you post a link to your work on the subject? How exactly are you estimating profits?
It's just common sense. The faster a miner can pay for itself the more people will buy them, it's not hard to get a ruff estimate on how long it will take. Simply looking at the price of bitcoin when purchasing mining equipment makes little sense.
I'm also currently preparing (actually waiting for bitcoin-abe) a "hashrate by day" dataset. Maybe it'd be good to use something higher resolution like that. I don't know what the implications ar of using hashrate estimation vs. difficulty.
This what you're after?
Edit: It's actually every 144 blocks, near enough to daily. It won't be exactly the same time period each "day" though.
ah, nice. Thanks for the pointer.
well, I'll do it myself anyhow (daily). Wanted an up-to-date bitcoin-abe dataset anyhow for other purposes.
If you can get a proper weekly / daily dataset, please post. I'd like to use a time period that doesn't stretch.
I'm also currently preparing (actually waiting for bitcoin-abe) a "hashrate by day" dataset. Maybe it'd be good to use something higher resolution like that. I don't know what the implications ar of using hashrate estimation vs. difficulty.
This what you're after?
Edit: It's actually every 144 blocks, near enough to daily. It won't be exactly the same time period each "day" though.
ah, nice. Thanks for the pointer.
well, I'll do it myself anyhow (daily). Wanted an up-to-date bitcoin-abe dataset anyhow for other purposes.
I'm also currently preparing (actually waiting for bitcoin-abe) a "hashrate by day" dataset. Maybe it'd be good to use something higher resolution like that. I don't know what the implications ar of using hashrate estimation vs. difficulty.
This what you're after?
Edit: It's actually every 144 blocks, near enough to daily. It won't be exactly the same time period each "day" though.
this is probably available from many other sources, but I just compiled the daily volume weighted average mtgox price from some 3 million trades and thought I'd share:
http://pastebin.com/uYcX08yL
EDIT: just discovered organofcortis dataset. Ah, well. Great work, btw.
http://pastebin.com/uYcX08yL
EDIT: just discovered organofcortis dataset. Ah, well. Great work, btw.
Actually, your post reminded me that I'd been using a truncated dataset, so it prompted me to go back and use the full dataset of MTGOX prices. I'll post a link to that soon. Also, I spent my day off yesterday learning about ARIMA models, and last night analysing the data and making models.
I found an incredibly good model, much better than in my first post. The correlation coefficient of log(Difficulty) and log(model) is 0.99 . I'm amazed by how good a match this is since I expected the change from CPU to GPU mining to have a much greater effect.
I'll post the results in the next few days, but if you want to try to figure the model out for yourselves, I'll give you a hint: D has an autocorrelation as well as a cross correlation with log(vwap usdbtc), and I used multiple linear regression.
I'm also currently preparing (actually waiting for bitcoin-abe) a "hashrate by day" dataset. Maybe it'd be good to use something higher resolution like that. I don't know what the implications ar of using hashrate estimation vs. difficulty.
this is probably available from many other sources, but I just compiled the daily volume weighted average mtgox price from some 3 million trades and thought I'd share:
http://pastebin.com/uYcX08yL
EDIT: just discovered organofcortis dataset. Ah, well. Great work, btw.
http://pastebin.com/uYcX08yL
EDIT: just discovered organofcortis dataset. Ah, well. Great work, btw.
Actually, your post reminded me that I'd been using a truncated dataset, so it prompted me to go back and use the full dataset of MTGOX prices. I'll post a link to that soon. Also, I spent my day off yesterday learning about ARIMA models, and last night analysing the data and making models.
I found an incredibly good model, much better than in my first post. The correlation coefficient of log(Difficulty) and log(model) is 0.99 . I'm amazed by how good a match this is since I expected the change from CPU to GPU mining to have a much greater effect.
I'll post the results in the next few days, but if you want to try to figure the model out for yourselves, I'll give you a hint: D has an autocorrelation as well as a cross correlation with log(vwap usdbtc), and I used multiple linear regression.
this is probably available from many other sources, but I just compiled the daily volume weighted average mtgox price from some 3 million trades and thought I'd share:
http://pastebin.com/uYcX08yL
EDIT: just discovered organofcortis dataset. Ah, well. Great work, btw.
http://pastebin.com/uYcX08yL
EDIT: just discovered organofcortis dataset. Ah, well. Great work, btw.
Difficulty changes not only due to more people investing into mining, but also due to changes in the efficiency and price of the available technology. I am trying to eliminate these technological sources of "noise" from the calculation, enabling (semi)quantitative predictions. Ultimately, and ideally, there would be no need for miners to have to guess future difficulty in their plans: difficulty will follow the BTC price anyway.
Has anyone ever collected and shown historical cost and efficiency of mining technologies ($s/Hash and J/Hash)? I'd hate to duplicate the effort.
Has anyone ever collected and shown historical cost and efficiency of mining technologies ($s/Hash and J/Hash)? I'd hate to duplicate the effort.
So you want a better predictor of difficulty than just usdbtc? That could be interesting. After ASICs make up the majority of the hashrate you'll be able to calculate the info you want. It would be very hard to figure out before then though. To many different mining rigs with different cards, fpgas and efficiencies.
bitboyben has collected much of the preorder ASIC data here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/asic-difficulty-curves-121453
Ideally, we should be looking not at the difficulty, but at the total USD value of mining hardware, based on network hashrate and historical price for H/s. It's tricky to unmix the contributions from different technologies (FPGA vs GPU), but could be estimated. Ideally the value of electricity should be added too, but then we'll have to assume some ROI period that miners are comfortable with.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I think you missed two important part of this thread: the fact it's about predicting difficulty and the fact that difficulty can be modelled as occurring due to changes in price.
I think your post is implying that exchange rate might be a function of the total US$cost of mining. In that case difficulty would be a function of the total cost of mining. This may be true (and I'd be interested to see a thread on it) but it's not what i'm considering in the blog post. Also, I could be wrong but you seem to imply that difficulty could affect exchange rate? I've tried to dispel the myth that difficulty affects exchange rate in any significant way so I hope I'm wrong.
Sounds like you misunderstood my post, and I can't blame you as it was not very clear. After looking at all the data in several different ways, I arrived at the conclusion that, so far, the USD/BTC exchange rate has been driving the network hashrate. We all seem to agree on that. Mining appears more lucrative, more people start investing into mining.
The point I was trying to make is that, instead of looking at the network hashrate (or difficulty), we could look into total USD value of mining equipment. The USD price of a GHash/s has been evolving over time, going from CPUs to GPUs to FPGAs. Also, for each of these technologies, there were constant improvements of the efficiency of the mining software. All in all, we should try and correlate the USD/BTC exchange rate with the (network hashrate / price of a GHash/s worth of mining equipment).
OK, I misunderstood one part - you're not implying difficulty drives price. But I'm having trouble still figuring what you're doing. I was trying to show that there's a time lagged correlation between changes in usdbtc and difficulty, implying that either usdbtc rate is affecting difficulty, or something else is affecting them both - first price, then difficulty.
What is purpose of the correlation you suggest? To predict price? Or to predict sales of mining equipment? Or just to show a correlation between them?
As btcpokey wrote, "to what end"?
Has anyone ever collected and shown historical cost and efficiency of mining technologies ($s/Hash and J/Hash)? I'd hate to duplicate the effort.
Ideally, we should be looking not at the difficulty, but at the total USD value of mining hardware, based on network hashrate and historical price for H/s. It's tricky to unmix the contributions from different technologies (FPGA vs GPU), but could be estimated. Ideally the value of electricity should be added too, but then we'll have to assume some ROI period that miners are comfortable with.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I think you missed two important part of this thread: the fact it's about predicting difficulty and the fact that difficulty can be modelled as occurring due to changes in price.
I think your post is implying that exchange rate might be a function of the total US$cost of mining. In that case difficulty would be a function of the total cost of mining. This may be true (and I'd be interested to see a thread on it) but it's not what i'm considering in the blog post. Also, I could be wrong but you seem to imply that difficulty could affect exchange rate? I've tried to dispel the myth that difficulty affects exchange rate in any significant way so I hope I'm wrong.
Sounds like you misunderstood my post, and I can't blame you as it was not very clear. After looking at all the data in several different ways, I arrived at the conclusion that, so far, the USD/BTC exchange rate has been driving the network hashrate. We all seem to agree on that. Mining appears more lucrative, more people start investing into mining.
The point I was trying to make is that, instead of looking at the network hashrate (or difficulty), we could look into total USD value of mining equipment. The USD price of a GHash/s has been evolving over time, going from CPUs to GPUs to FPGAs. Also, for each of these technologies, there were constant improvements of the efficiency of the mining software. All in all, we should try and correlate the USD/BTC exchange rate with the (network hashrate / price of a GHash/s worth of mining equipment).
OK, I misunderstood one part - you're not implying difficulty drives price. But I'm having trouble still figuring what you're doing. I was trying to show that there's a time lagged correlation between changes in usdbtc and difficulty, implying that either usdbtc rate is affecting difficulty, or something else is affecting them both - first price, then difficulty.
What is purpose of the correlation you suggest? To predict price? Or to predict sales of mining equipment? Or just to show a correlation between them?
As btcpokey wrote, "to what end"?
The price of btc does not control difficulty. Profits drive difficulty, and it looks similar to the price because they are similar.
Can you post a link to your work on the subject? How exactly are you estimating profits?
Fantastic post again Organofcorti. If I had bitcoins to donate, I would
Keep up the great work..I've got your website bookmarked!
Ideally, we should be looking not at the difficulty, but at the total USD value of mining hardware, based on network hashrate and historical price for H/s. It's tricky to unmix the contributions from different technologies (FPGA vs GPU), but could be estimated. Ideally the value of electricity should be added too, but then we'll have to assume some ROI period that miners are comfortable with.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I think you missed two important part of this thread: the fact it's about predicting difficulty and the fact that difficulty can be modelled as occurring due to changes in price.
I think your post is implying that exchange rate might be a function of the total US$cost of mining. In that case difficulty would be a function of the total cost of mining. This may be true (and I'd be interested to see a thread on it) but it's not what i'm considering in the blog post. Also, I could be wrong but you seem to imply that difficulty could affect exchange rate? I've tried to dispel the myth that difficulty affects exchange rate in any significant way so I hope I'm wrong.
Sounds like you misunderstood my post, and I can't blame you as it was not very clear. After looking at all the data in several different ways, I arrived at the conclusion that, so far, the USD/BTC exchange rate has been driving the network hashrate. We all seem to agree on that. Mining appears more lucrative, more people start investing into mining.
The point I was trying to make is that, instead of looking at the network hashrate (or difficulty), we could look into total USD value of mining equipment. The USD price of a GHash/s has been evolving over time, going from CPUs to GPUs to FPGAs. Also, for each of these technologies, there were constant improvements of the efficiency of the mining software. All in all, we should try and correlate the USD/BTC exchange rate with the (network hashrate / price of a GHash/s worth of mining equipment).
Well let me ask you this, to what end exactly? Say I work out a strong correlative effect between the value of mining hardware on the market, and the price USBTC. Now I know how much mining hardware value is, what does that do for me?
The reason for most of these models (at least from my perspective, perhaps they do not agree) is that people are figuring the profitability under different scenarios for mining (and whether to buy in, or drop out). Knowing what the total hashrate will be does not help, except that from that I can calculate difficulty, via an additional step. So why not cut out the middle man and just model difficulty directly?
The price of btc does not control difficulty. Profits drive difficulty, and it looks similar to the price because they are similar.
meh. In the same manner you could say: Profits don't drive difficulty, the submission of valid block to the network does.
The price of btc does not control difficulty. Profits drive difficulty, and it looks similar to the price because they are similar.
Ideally, we should be looking not at the difficulty, but at the total USD value of mining hardware, based on network hashrate and historical price for H/s. It's tricky to unmix the contributions from different technologies (FPGA vs GPU), but could be estimated. Ideally the value of electricity should be added too, but then we'll have to assume some ROI period that miners are comfortable with.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I think you missed two important part of this thread: the fact it's about predicting difficulty and the fact that difficulty can be modelled as occurring due to changes in price.
I think your post is implying that exchange rate might be a function of the total US$cost of mining. In that case difficulty would be a function of the total cost of mining. This may be true (and I'd be interested to see a thread on it) but it's not what i'm considering in the blog post. Also, I could be wrong but you seem to imply that difficulty could affect exchange rate? I've tried to dispel the myth that difficulty affects exchange rate in any significant way so I hope I'm wrong.
Sounds like you misunderstood my post, and I can't blame you as it was not very clear. After looking at all the data in several different ways, I arrived at the conclusion that, so far, the USD/BTC exchange rate has been driving the network hashrate. We all seem to agree on that. Mining appears more lucrative, more people start investing into mining.
The point I was trying to make is that, instead of looking at the network hashrate (or difficulty), we could look into total USD value of mining equipment. The USD price of a GHash/s has been evolving over time, going from CPUs to GPUs to FPGAs. Also, for each of these technologies, there were constant improvements of the efficiency of the mining software. All in all, we should try and correlate the USD/BTC exchange rate with the (network hashrate / price of a GHash/s worth of mining equipment).
I thought his idea would be great to measure potential difficulty. I guess I was already of topic too.
great work sir, you are a scholar and a gentlemen.
And another thread here: http://forum.bitcoin.org/?topic=4339.0
Looks like I was late to the party - I missed that thread. Thanks for posting the link though molecular - lots of interesting points there.
Here's another relevant thread, an old one (maybe someone wants to necropost).
Not exactly about the topic, but goes into some detail about the correlation. It's about deciding wether it's more profitable to buy or mine:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/price-vs-difficulty-charts-indicators-for-buying-or-mining-7427
before everything is repeated here. Here's a recent example of the issue being discussed. The OP was confused about the issue and asked wether there was a correlation. After some explaining he said
EDIT: As far as I remember that thread also goes into possible factors that might constitute an influence from difficulty on the price, but I think it was argued that these effects were much weaker than the effect of price on difficulty.
So at this point I can see that price and difficulty are in fact highly correlated, and changes in difficulty are primarily caused by changes in price.
EDIT: As far as I remember that thread also goes into possible factors that might constitute an influence from difficulty on the price, but I think it was argued that these effects were much weaker than the effect of price on difficulty.
Looks like I was late to the party - I missed that thread. Thanks for posting the link though molecular - lots of interesting points there.
Ideally, we should be looking not at the difficulty, but at the total USD value of mining hardware, based on network hashrate and historical price for H/s. It's tricky to unmix the contributions from different technologies (FPGA vs GPU), but could be estimated. Ideally the value of electricity should be added too, but then we'll have to assume some ROI period that miners are comfortable with.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I think you missed two important part of this thread: the fact it's about predicting difficulty and the fact that difficulty can be modelled as occurring due to changes in price.
I think your post is implying that exchange rate might be a function of the total US$cost of mining. In that case difficulty would be a function of the total cost of mining. This may be true (and I'd be interested to see a thread on it) but it's not what i'm considering in the blog post. Also, I could be wrong but you seem to imply that difficulty could affect exchange rate? I've tried to dispel the myth that difficulty affects exchange rate in any significant way so I hope I'm wrong.
before everything is repeated here. Here's a recent example of the issue being discussed. The OP was confused about the issue and asked wether there was a correlation. After some explaining he said
So at this point I can see that price and difficulty are in fact highly correlated, and changes in difficulty are primarily caused by changes in price.
EDIT: As far as I remember that thread also goes into possible factors that might constitute an influence from difficulty on the price, but I think it was argued that these effects were much weaker than the effect of price on difficulty.
Ideally, we should be looking not at the difficulty, but at the total USD value of mining hardware, based on network hashrate and historical price for H/s. It's tricky to unmix the contributions from different technologies (FPGA vs GPU), but could be estimated. Ideally the value of electricity should be added too, but then we'll have to assume some ROI period that miners are comfortable with.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I think you missed two important part of this thread: the fact it's about predicting difficulty and the fact that difficulty can be modelled as occurring due to changes in price.
I think your post is implying that exchange rate might be a function of the total US$cost of mining. In that case difficulty would be a function of the total cost of mining. This may be true (and I'd be interested to see a thread on it) but it's not what i'm considering in the blog post. Also, I could be wrong but you seem to imply that difficulty could affect exchange rate? I've tried to dispel the myth that difficulty affects exchange rate in any significant way so I hope I'm wrong.
Ideally, we should be looking not at the difficulty, but at the total USD value of mining hardware, based on network hashrate and historical price for H/s. It's tricky to unmix the contributions from different technologies (FPGA vs GPU), but could be estimated. Ideally the value of electricity should be added too, but then we'll have to assume some ROI period that miners are comfortable with.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I thoroughly agree that this could be very useful. And what is going to happen with ASICs coming online is that there will be easy to follow stats to compare dollar value invested in hardware to total hash rate. We already have a good idea of where both will be once they get shipped out and we just need the shipments to happen to get an even more accurate idea.
As for miner profit sentiment there is a poll for that as well and may be useful to some degree.
nice!
in fact: really nice!
Now I have a place to point all the "we should mine more so price rises" idiocy. (Not that there was a lack before).
Can you make that image about 30-50% of it's original size?
in fact: really nice!
Now I have a place to point all the "we should mine more so price rises" idiocy. (Not that there was a lack before).
Can you make that image about 30-50% of it's original size?
Ideally, we should be looking not at the difficulty, but at the total USD value of mining hardware, based on network hashrate and historical price for H/s. It's tricky to unmix the contributions from different technologies (FPGA vs GPU), but could be estimated. Ideally the value of electricity should be added too, but then we'll have to assume some ROI period that miners are comfortable with.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
I expect the correlation between this "value" of mining hardware+electricity and the BTC exchange rate to be much stronger than difficulty/exchange rate.
nice graph i'm watching this thread
i'm watching this thread sr. member
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Trust me, these default swaps will limit the risks
Awesome graph. Can't wait to see what you can make in the future after the upcoming changes have set in real good.
Interesting model, I will look it over more when I'm not running out the door. I think it's most interesting that your model vs. real world has a tendency for the modelling to over-estimate large swings as events occur. Perhaps a dampening term would make it even more impressively accurate. Makes sense too as miners are reluctant to switch off even in the face of sour events, as well as being hesitant to make huge risks en masse simply because things are going well for a while.
Kudos however for the work.
Kudos however for the work.
I wrote something similar in the blog. I think miners respond less well to market volatility and mining inertia tends to dampen big swings in hashrate - when things are going well there's still a time cost involved in purchasing new equipment, during which a miner might cancel the order, and when USDBTC is dropping miners, as you say, are reluctant to turn off.
I introduced a dampening term of -log(BTCUSD^3*const) to the third model which reduced the swings a little. I can certainly reduce them further, but since I'm not sure how to model miner sentiment I don't really have anywhere to start. Without a model for how and why miner sentiment might dampen the D response, any improvement in matching the curves could be overfitting. I did find a few models that match actual D quite well, but they probably are overfit and have little predictive value.
Some body send this guy some BTC!
I am organofcorti and I approve this message.
Some body send this guy some BTC!
Interesting model, I will look it over more when I'm not running out the door. I think it's most interesting that your model vs. real world has a tendency for the modelling to over-estimate large swings as events occur. Perhaps a dampening term would make it even more impressively accurate. Makes sense too as miners are reluctant to switch off even in the face of sour events, as well as being hesitant to make huge risks en masse simply because things are going well for a while.
Kudos however for the work.
Kudos however for the work.
After several discussions on this board and others, I decided to actually analyse "Price drives difficulty" and determine if there really is a significant correlation between the two, and not just a post-bubble correlation either, but one that is valid for the whole MTGOX trading history.
Details are here:
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/11/101-price-drives-difficulty.html
Quote
2. Conclusions
- "Price" does indeed "drive difficulty", and an analysis of correlation coefficients tells us that the "price" is the log of the volume weighted average USDBTC price from two difficulty periods previously, and difficulty is actually the log of D.
- More simply, log(D, lag=2) = log(BTCUSD vwap)*a + b
- A simple linear model shows a clear relationship between the two, but has no significant predictive value.
- A more complex model is slightly better at predicting D, but is still not useful as a lone accurate predictor of D, and also suffers from the possibility of "overfitting".
- It is likely that other contributors to D make a simple D predictor based on price impossible. However a simple predictor as developed above maybe useful in predicting a general direction in the change of difficulty and the strength of the change (barring a very volatile market).
- None of this will be valid in approximately three weeks, when after block number 210000 the block reward halves to 25 btc, and be even less valid with the onset of ASIC hashpower. However the idea behind the analysis stands and may be used once the dust settles.
Details are here:
http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/11/101-price-drives-difficulty.html
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