Topic: Price seems stable now... (Read 7666 times)

OK that makes sense. that previous statement was misleading because he said they are "mined at the same rate". That poster should have said "the hashing rate stays the same".

You can pump out more than the entire hashing power of bitcoin in your flat without any ventilation or power supply?

Ok.

Yay, cheap coins again!

Seriously, just think about where it has been a while ago.

I think one of the reasons for this "correction" (a correction for now, I don't think it will be that low in a few days/weeks/months) is that it became important to people using it as a currency (or commodity or whatever you call it) to have a stable value. No offense, but I guess it's harder to grasp for some Americans because the USD still is some kind of reference currency (currently! even though it MIGHT be just a matter of time until this changes), but there are markets for currencies. No, I don't mean places to trade them, but reasons for trading them (foreign currency loans to name an example). On a market new goods (currencies/commodities in this case) have be valued. That's why some people call it a crash or a price explosion, while other call it a correction.

All markets are a lot about fear, but we have seen that. When someone talks about a crash or a crisis in real life it's exactly the same. It might be reasonable to sell shares of a small company, which maybe won't survive as long as the share still have some value, but it's completely stupid for people to sell for example Google shares when the price is lower then it should be given the fact that they will survive and start growing again. It actually is the best time to buy. Hmm, but you just have to look at some kind of stock market chart and scale it to something like five years.

It affects how long it will take given a certain hashpower (of -say- a single miner). It keeps how long it will take for the combined hashpower of all miners at a constant level (50 BTC in 10 minutes)

I think the important thing is that the individual difficulty will increase as long as the number of new coins is a constant. The more people who mine, the more people the coins will have to be divided between. It's like winning the lottery, except more and more people will pick the winning numbers. In the end, no one is going to bother entering since the ticket price will be that much higher compared to the prize you get *if* you happen to win that day.

exactly, but to keep the rate constant with increasing hashing power.

This seems wrong. If that were true then what would be the point of having "difficulty" at all? I thought difficulty affected how long it took to solve a block?

Bitcoins are mined at the same rate regardless of difficulty.

That's self correcting.  If a lot of miners get out difficulty drops, which makes mining more profitable.

The reason why it will cause loss of interest is that mining is not profitable anymore. I think this is a big part of the whole bitcoin craze. It will still have some interest, but it will lose alot.

It ran up from $1 to $30 really quickly.  a price drop back down to $15 or even $8 is not going to cause a loss of interest.

Yes It is very interesting times, I can't help  but keep checking the price of the bitcoin. I must admit, part of me wants it to go lower because I missed the boat on this one.

With the current drop into the $15 range, and nobody seems to want to pick it back up to $20. I think most people will not even take the risk at buying it at these lower prices with the hope it will bounce back up to its $20 dollar support.

Someone must have kept it inflated at the $20 dollar level. I have no idea why someone has done that and spent all the money keeping it at that level. I knew that would not hold as nobody has that deep pockets.

A fair and stable price level would be around $8.00.

I am surprised the forum is pretty silent about this latest price drop. This signals many things coming to and end especially the mining. This whole thing may lose much interest soon.

Like any economy, it will have its ups and downs; we seem to be experiencing a nice little downtrend. I wouldn't worry too much about it.

$16 and falling on MtGox as I write this.  The 'island of stability' around $19 to $20 didn't last too long.  Those 25k stolen BTCs being unloaded today after being laundered over the last couple of days?  Dead Cat Bounce has had its run? ($30 -> $10 -> $20 -> sub $10 if that's the case).  Interesting times.

Impossible to say at this point were it will go. Long-term depends on its real value as currency, that is, what you can actually buy with it. And that value is probably a lot lower than the current market value at the moment. If it ever gets anything close to mainstream, most guys on this forum would probably get rich. If it continues as a "geek-currency" you can use to pay for web-hosting and mining-rigs and such, the market-price will probably go down quite a bit. Only thing I feel pretty sure about is that it will never die completely.

Silk Road gives it value.

I'd say I'm more of this type, although I'm an engineer. I don't think it's necessarily a bad thing for the Feds, and governments of most countries, to regulate money. However, I do see the explosive growth potential for Bitcoins.

As I discussed in another post there are four potential groups of bitcoin users.  The geometric growth that we saw was the result of adoption by the second demographic: libertarian engineers.  We have achieved significant penetration in that market.  Next we have to get young hip people with fancy smart phones who eat at ethnic restaurants and buy things online.  Once we breach the demographic we'll see geometric growth again, and the price will soar into the hundreds, maybe thousands.  After that market is penetrated we'll see linear growth, as old people (who don't use bitcoin) die and are replaced by children who do.

However until we can hook that demographic we are going to see the price drop gradually.  People who need their money now will sell to people already in the market.  We aren't getting any new bitcoin users until bitcoin is a lot more polished and user friendly.  This requires new clients, smart phone support, and a decimal point shift.  This might take a long, long time.  However I believe that it will be done.  Right now many people are significantly invested in bitcoin.  There are people who stand to be millionaires if bitcoin succeeds.  I can see these people putting time and money towards making bitcoin succeed.  Those of us who are smaller players can play smaller parts.  We just need to penetrate into the next market and we'll all have money, until then we have a bunch of poker chips.

I agree with you, but I made a rough calculation that with 1 BN dollars coming to Bitcoin (this is really nothing in a global scale) we could very well see $500 price. Be cautious not to confuse market capitalization with total amount of money put into Bitcoins, as not all bitcoins are sold into the market at any given market price, but only a small fraction. Many bitcoins remain out of the market so far, or have been out of the market for weeks, stored in miners and early adopters saving wallets.

Just to give you an example, I am not going to sell my bitcoins before $1000-1500 unless I discover some fatal flaw in Bitcoin. I am here for the lon run, partly to support Bitcoin, and partly beacuse I believe we are at the very start of a big growth ahead. If it goes down I will accept that, even if I loose all my money.

Firstly, you're crazy, secondly, it's hopped back up to 17.36. I made a nice buy at the low point and sold just now, nice instant cash.

Oh god! Now you've made this thread the price of btc is crashing faster than the world trade center did after the government blew it up in their false flag operation to invade iraq!! fuck!!

My thoughts on institutional investment in btc is that it will be significantly slower than the geometric price progression we've seen. Problems with liquidity, relative stability of prices, and security of investment from hacks and market DDOS may be keeping larger players away. Anyone investing in BTC from an institutional perspective would be more likely to be risk adverse. Any individuals with larger investments would also be less likely, logically, to put large amounts of money into btc. If the price rise slows over the next few months, stability of price occurs and security of investment are fixed we should see a greater influx of investors.

It's the risk in BTC that's keeping big money away.

I still stick with these numbers in a couple of months timeframe. I assume a geometric growth doubling its price each month until reaching roughly 1K at the end of the year. I base my guessing in a viral adoption, and in the enormous amounts of fiat currency floating arround the world and ready for investments, and the low yield of alternatives for landing that extra cash.

it's not up to them...

Miners don't control Supply / Demand they are just affected by the consequences.

Less than $10 with the current difficulty lvl ?
 
Remember that miners are the biggest source of bitcoins in this moment. I'm sure they aren't willing to lose cash.

Funny. Two weeks ago everyone was talking about $100, $400, $1k...

Yes it is finally coming down. It does not make sense at $20. There is no value currenctly in owning this currency other than the long term potential if it does ever make a valid currency.

If you are willing to wait some years and hold it as an investment, it should be priced less than $10 dollars because of the high risk of it failing.

Who ever pays $20 or higher now as a long term investment is way overpaying because of all the risk.

It should keep falling down to less than $10.

If 18 will broken, we can expect  way down to 15. Interesting.

just broke the 19 barrier

So? I'm looking forward to all the cheap second hand video cards that will be for sale. I am building a flight simulator :-)

Seriously, The average profitability of mining should be zero. Inefficient miners should be losing money, because they are wasting electricity. The "evil" speculators have stabilized the market for now, and that's a good thing. Sustainable long-term growth requires less volatility. Entrepreneurs need to be able to make reasonable and reasonably accurate assumptions about future demand.

artificial prices, by definition, do not exist in a free market.

Care to show something useful with a 3-month linear one?

Oh, These logarithmic scale`s... They are so comfortable to show anything you want ...

Volume is not precisely "doubling"...



I don't think it's way too small for that, it's just at the limit, ie no money is being made right now.

I don't see this low activity period as something necessarily strange or bad. It's not the first time it happens (both beginning and end of May show similar patterns). Plus, the midterm trend is still intact:

looks like there is no interest in BTC for now. What we see, is a fight between some trade bots.

here was something I mentioned at another thread, however it seems to have played out much earlier than anticipated:

The thread is: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=14657.msg209183#msg209183
Comment made on: June 12, 2011, 07:26:02 pm

Sure, Im not looking to get into some kind of debate here of who is right or wrong, just adding my input. I think though you will find your comment still supports my original. Equal number of buys and sells, whoever it may be.

I dont completely agree nor disagree with you.

What I do know, looking at the live data from mtgox, majority of the traffic is bot-related counter bidding and keeping the price between 19-20 margins.

I dont why why its being done cause the margins is way to small to avoid the 1.3% fee from mtgox, so maybe someone else could figure this pickle out.

Nothing artificial about it, this is how markets behave. Also this comment: 'It's stable because no big sells nor big buys were made recently. Granted, the longer it stays stable, the bigger a buy/sell would need to be for prices to actually budge.' is not the right way to look at it. Price is not moving so much because there is equal number of buys to sells. When one side gives in it will break to make a new range. Often when price breaks out of consolidation they are big moves however quickly bounce back into the range as it meets fresh supply/demand. The fact is the market is in agreement at the value of a bitcoin, untill the market tries to agree on the new value..

 Btw when you mention trap, which side do you mean for? Is it a bull trap or bear trap? Tbh if you say either one or the other you will have 50% chance of being correct.... Nobody can tell whether its going to move up or down, unless they are big investor looking to buy/sell thousands.

Of course it is, we had artificial rally, artificial correction and now the stability is also artificial.

It's so artificial, like a dream, when you wake up tomorrow the price will be between NILL and OMG!

it is, a bit.

it's so obviously artificial.

the joys of an unregulated market: keeps you on your toes, doesn't it?

It's stable because no big sells nor big buys were made recently. Granted, the longer it stays stable, the bigger a buy/sell would need to be for prices to actually budge.

Mining should be more or less independent from the actual market long-term.  The amount of ghashes should go up or down in response to the current exchange rate and difficulty levels.  The only direct impact mining should have on price is when a ton of new equipment goes online in the middle of one difficulty cycle such that the 2016 blocks are used up way faster than 6 per hour, which temporarily increases supply and should suppress the price a little.  Once the difficulty adjusts to that though it goes back to normal.

I don't know if the market is attracting more miners but it does seem that those that have already started mining keep bring new capacity on line as they can afford it.  I don't know much about economics, but it would seem that if prices stay steady and market depth, trade volume, and liquidity double (and/or stably increase), then this will make it easyer for online merchants to accept bitcoin.  Mining will adjust accordingly.    Hopefully someone more knowledgeable than I can give a good analysis.  Let me know where I'm mistaken.

This is really really scary.

The price can be stable olny if the difficulty is not changing, we are most likely going to see another +60% increse at the next step.

I hope you are right. That would be great!

Famous last words.

Yup. Its supply and demand. Some miners will go bankrupt while others will stay in business.

But in the bigger picture we NEED the price to be stable. I'd say no more than 3-5% change over the course of a YEAR. If the price is too volatile then it is difficult to run a business.

A stable price is welcome, but we must remember that difficulty went up 50% yesterday.  The price didn't budge.  There's no reason to believe the price will go higher when difficulty again goes up by 50% in a week's time.  Within the space of around 2 weeks a miner will be making less than half what they used to.

Awesome, thats exactly what we need! Price is stable from $19-20

Price seems stable around $19.
 
Now someone lower it down to about 10 so I can buy a couple more pls.