Topic: Price vs. Google Trends Search Volume for "bitcoin" (2011-09-04 - Present) (Read 1393 times)
June 23, 2014, 01:08:57 PM
Looks like a lagging indicator to me.
June 23, 2014, 11:42:25 AM
My analysis is that there is a cycle in price in crease like this. Traders buy and price rises -> "Get rich quick" idiots search Google for "Bitcoin" -> 3 buisiness days later when their SEPA deposit clears there is a spike in price.
That's not an analysis. That's a guess.
What is the correlation here, and at what confidence level?
My guess is much more simple: Interest follows price. Google Trends is a pretty good measure of general interest.
June 23, 2014, 11:38:30 AM
Looks to me like price leads the google trends?
My analysis is that there is a cycle in price in crease like this.
Traders buy and price rises -> "Get rich quick" idiots search Google for "Bitcoin" -> 3 buisiness days later when their SEPA deposit clears there is a spike in price.
Don't look at it as the searc volume raising the price, look at the search volume raising the price on a 3-buisiness-day delay. So that spike on 2013-04-02 was actually the smaller one 3 days later. I'll do a more in depth analysis later.
It could also be that every bubble has had a "return to "normal"" sub-peak, and is unrelated to any such behavior of the "get rich quick".
June 23, 2014, 10:54:39 AM
Looks to me like price leads the google trends?
My analysis is that there is a cycle in price in crease like this.
Traders buy and price rises -> "Get rich quick" idiots search Google for "Bitcoin" -> 3 buisiness days later when their SEPA deposit clears there is a spike in price.
Don't look at it as the searc volume raising the price, look at the search volume raising the price on a 3-buisiness-day delay. So that spike on 2013-04-02 was actually the smaller one 3 days later. I'll do a more in depth analysis later.
lol i just though exactly that by watching on the log chart
June 23, 2014, 10:50:06 AM
Looks to me like price leads the google trends?
My analysis is that there is a cycle in price in crease like this.
Traders buy and price rises -> "Get rich quick" idiots search Google for "Bitcoin" -> 3 buisiness days later when their SEPA deposit clears there is a spike in price.
Don't look at it as the searc volume raising the price, look at the search volume raising the price on a 3-buisiness-day delay. So that spike on 2013-04-02 was actually the smaller one 3 days later. I'll do a more in depth analysis later.
June 23, 2014, 10:44:49 AM
Looks to me like price leads the google trends?
June 23, 2014, 02:34:31 AM
+1 this request for log scaled version.
June 23, 2014, 01:41:31 AM
BitStamp Price History obtained from http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/
Google Trends data obtained from trends.google.com
Donations appreciated: 1CJJXipY18D9F8aFQ8cDiXMRLgvbipBeTW
Google Trends data obtained from trends.google.com
Donations appreciated: 1CJJXipY18D9F8aFQ8cDiXMRLgvbipBeTW
Care to present this on a log chart?
June 22, 2014, 11:19:16 PM
June 22, 2014, 10:48:04 PM
looks to me like another spike is coming
June 22, 2014, 10:33:51 PM
It looks to me like those who know how to google search, already know about Bitcoin and don't care 
June 22, 2014, 07:15:52 PM
BitStamp Price History obtained from http://api.bitcoincharts.com/v1/csv/
Google Trends data obtained from trends.google.com
Donations appreciated:
Google Trends data obtained from trends.google.com
Donations appreciated:
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