The block reward won't halve until around the end of 2012 or the beginning of 2013 (depending on how network speed fluctuates between now and then).
I hope block reward changes in september
that would imply price during this year going to the moooon
Not to be a pessimist, but people will think it should be more, ie 2x as much..
But thats not reality.. diffic. does dictate price..
Yes it is more like price dictates difficulty. Case in point: Bitcoin drops in price to $2 - Difficulty drops tremendously because hashrate drops. Bitcoin goes back up to $7 - Hashrate once again rises and so does difficulty.
The difficulty however will not change in 2012 but the reward per block will. This will have the same price on hashrate as doubling the difficulty but in essence they are two different things.
Exactly
