Topic: Probability is not the reason for your loss (Read 185 times)
In every game, there's always a probability, and that's what we should know, not only knowing that there is, but we should also know what is the probability of winning. We gamblers risk money to win, so just like when putting our money in an investment, we make sure we will get a good chance of getting profitable, unless your main intention why you are gambling is just to have fun, you may not pay attention too much on this kind of details.
Yeah spot on.
I think that most people don't factor in the variance of their positions.
Even if they are sure that their bets carry a positive expectancy, in the short run they may see huge losses that obfuscate the story. And this applies the other way around as well. This is why Blackjack Advantage Players tend to ignore the short term noise, or at least try to train themselves to do so.
I think that most people don't factor in the variance of their positions.
Even if they are sure that their bets carry a positive expectancy, in the short run they may see huge losses that obfuscate the story. And this applies the other way around as well. This is why Blackjack Advantage Players tend to ignore the short term noise, or at least try to train themselves to do so.
If somebody lose, there's no need for any justification of it. He just normally lose because he did a gamble and we all knew that the house has always the edge in winning against its gamblers.
And if a gambler is blaming about the probability of a game, he just can't accept that he lose.
Serious gamblers always blame themselves if they are losing and forgetting about this one, the house will always win in gambling even you use many strategies and in gambling, the probability to double your money is very low that’s why its not good in long term. And if a gambler is blaming about the probability of a game, he just can't accept that he lose.
Does anyone here really compute probability? Because I can’t think for anything every time I gamble, I focus on the game and I do enjoy it because this has been my purpose every time I gamble.
If somebody lose, there's no need for any justification of it. He just normally lose because he did a gamble and we all knew that the house has always the edge in winning against its gamblers.
And if a gambler is blaming about the probability of a game, he just can't accept that he lose.
And if a gambler is blaming about the probability of a game, he just can't accept that he lose.
I mean when it comes to gambling there is always a certain amount of probability which goes hand in hand w/luck really, but you're right probability really isn't how you win. Studying, practicing/playing a lot and learning the game, whatever game that may be is what it's all about.
In luck based gambling, I don't think there will be many people who measure the probability of winning before they bet. I'm probably one of those who don't measure it often enough because I don't gamble to make money. I'll probably do it if need be like when I want to bet on sports betting, but not slots or dice. Probability is considered important by those who are always intent on making money gambling, I won't argue with that. I don't think probability by any means doesn't give gamblers a good chance of winning, but sometimes it means nothing when luck isn't on our side.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST A GUIDE THAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. Its not a cheat-code that will guarantee your win every now and then.
I've seen people blaming probabilities, wether they put their trust and still lost, or lose all of their trust to probability just because that one game didn't play like what they want it to be.
Use probability wisely, and you will surely appreciate and honor its abilities.
Actually, in the long run, probability IS the reason for your loss.
Sure, in the short term variance is going to trump any sort of expected value but in the long run it's the EV that matters.
If you don't believe in these basic probabilities and you think that you are able to somehow circumvent the negative EV of games that you're playing, you're delusional and will likely lose out big time in the long run.
Use probability wisely, and you will surely appreciate and honor its abilities.
Are you talking about probability or provability?
Probability is the rate at which an event is likely to occur[1], while provability is the idea that something is true simply because you can prove it to be true.[2]
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability
[2] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correctness_(computer_science)
probability with everything that makes it easy to win but you can't really take advantage of every opportunity to take a win just as you let the probability fall to someone else. Just as one of the factors that you can consider when gambling and pay attention to several possibilities, that too cannot be said to be entirely accurate. It's just that we can focus on how the interest is between a 50% chance of winning in legitimate conditions or winning in conditions that only get from luck.
It is a game of chance even if you do play it to have fun. Ignoring that is irresponsible imo. You might gamble for fun but that can quickly turn into a addiction where you are losing hundreds if not thousands of dollars every time you decide to have fun. You should be aware that gambling is a game of chance and the odds are stacked against you because you might be having fun now but when you start to quickly lose all your money that quickly turns into no fun at all and then you try to gamble to break even.
It is just like saying water can wet, even small children which are not allowed by the government to gamble know that gambling is a game of chance, even uneducated people know that it is a game of chance, but like I said before, I do not focus on that, what I focus on is to have fun, my monthly budget is 2 to 5% of my monthly income, it is usually 2% unless I gamble much, I gamble only on weekends, and most on Sundays to keep myself busy with something and have fun. Maybe for other people, but for me, nothing like addiction. Tomorrow again is another fun regardless of wining or losing, but I bet strictly and most only on football, quite easy for me to have another win possibly tomorrow as usual.
If we are smart, we would know how to choose a game where we have a higher probability of winning. House edge does lower our probability of winning, hence we will not win in the long run, so if we will focus on a game with a house edge, there's no way we will be consistent on winning. Most of us just fully rely on our luck and honestly, I don't even think that we know our real probablity of winning in the games we are playing.
If you’re going to compute probability, it will take more time and there’s a different probability on every games like on slots, the probability to win is very low while losing is high, and in boxing betting, the probability to win is big same thing when you lose.
I do agree that this is our guide to our next decision, either to continue gambling or not do it’s really important to understand this and use it as your advantage.
I do agree that this is our guide to our next decision, either to continue gambling or not do it’s really important to understand this and use it as your advantage.
I mean when it comes to gambling there is always a certain amount of probability which goes hand in hand w/luck really, but you're right probability really isn't how you win. Studying, practicing/playing a lot and learning the game, whatever game that may be is what it's all about.
As far as I know, everything we do or should I say however we gamble... one way or another , probability will always be there especially if it concerns sportsbetting, not so sure about casino gaming 
... There is a saying that says "practice makes perfect " if a player practices more expect that practice to pay off by winning, meaning the player has a higher probability of winning a game than the guy that hardly practices...so really probability is still golden but of course I take things to be 50-50 because other factors are at play when gambling, for example match fixing. So I agree with you on the use probability wisely!
Probability is used by smart gamblers to test whether they have a chance of winning, those who make gamble as one of their source of income will need to have a basis on how they will win other than pure luck. Computing probability is not wasting time if we know how to calculate it we will be amazed how we can use it on our advantage. It's still need some experience to won or control the game but know that losses is part of gamblin and can be acquire even if we compute the probability but atleast their something we can try to do with in a world of gambling in which everything will be based on how lucky we are. ... There is a saying that says "practice makes perfect " if a player practices more expect that practice to pay off by winning, meaning the player has a higher probability of winning a game than the guy that hardly practices...so really probability is still golden but of course I take things to be 50-50 because other factors are at play when gambling, for example match fixing. So I agree with you on the use probability wisely!...
I did not believe in probability, I only believe in having fun in any I am doing, if I am thinking of gaming from anything, then gambling will be the last I can think about which I will not even still follow because I will not want to have bad mindset in anything I am doing, thinking of wining can make me to lose focus of the fun I want to have. Some people called gambling a game of chance but I see it as a way of entertaining myself, I do not consider any wining or loss.Gambling is more than thinking about probability, the bettig companies make things in a way to favour them than to favour punters, that is why we should not see betting as a way of making money irrespective of the probabilities of wining of the odds chosen.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST A GUIDE THAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. Its not a cheat-code that will guarantee your win every now and then.
I've seen people blaming probabilities, wether they put their trust and still lost, or lose all of their trust to probability just because that one game didn't play like what they want it to be.
Use probability wisely, and you will surely appreciate and honor its abilities.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST A GUIDE THAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. Its not a cheat-code that will guarantee your win every now and then.
I've seen people blaming probabilities, wether they put their trust and still lost, or lose all of their trust to probability just because that one game didn't play like what they want it to be.
Use probability wisely, and you will surely appreciate and honor its abilities.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST A GUIDE THAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. Its not a cheat-code that will guarantee your win every now and then.
The problem with probability is that most gamblers use it as a scapegoat or as a way of rationalizing their betting sprees or addiction. For example, a person will gamble more frequently relying on the probability data that he/she may either win at a specific % based on probability. It gives them this false sense of security and hope as probability will only make them bet more.
That is why, gambling is really against the odds. No matter how high the probability of you losing/winning, if the odds are not in your favour, then you are bound to lose.
As far as I know, everything we do or should I say however we gamble... one way or another , probability will always be there especially if it concerns sportsbetting, not so sure about casino gaming ... There is a saying that says "practice makes perfect " if a player practices more expect that practice to pay off by winning, meaning the player has a higher probability of winning a game than the guy that hardly practices...so really probability is still golden but of course I take things to be 50-50 because other factors are at play when gambling, for example match fixing. So I agree with you on the use probability wisely!
... There is a saying that says "practice makes perfect " if a player practices more expect that practice to pay off by winning, meaning the player has a higher probability of winning a game than the guy that hardly practices...so really probability is still golden but of course I take things to be 50-50 because other factors are at play when gambling, for example match fixing. So I agree with you on the use probability wisely! ...
I did not believe in probability, I only believe in having fun in any I am doing, if I am thinking of gaming from anything, then gambling will be the last I can think about which I will not even still follow because I will not want to have bad mindset in anything I am doing, thinking of wining can make me to lose focus of the fun I want to have. Some people called gambling a game of chance but I see it as a way of entertaining myself, I do not consider any wining or loss.Gambling is more than thinking about probability, the bettig companies make things in a way to favour them than to favour punters, that is why we should not see betting as a way of making money irrespective of the probabilities of wining of the odds chosen.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST A GUIDE THAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. Its not a cheat-code that will guarantee your win every now and then.
I've seen people blaming probabilities, wether they put their trust and still lost, or lose all of their trust to probability just because that one game didn't play like what they want it to be.
Use probability wisely, and you will surely appreciate and honor its abilities.
Nothing in this world got 100% assurance. If you have skills then you may increase your chances to be hitting toward more than 50% but definitely not up to 100%.
Moreover, probability is only the justification for our losses and definitely not the root-cause for our losses in gambling.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST A GUIDE THAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. Its not a cheat-code that will guarantee your win every now and then.
I've seen people blaming probabilities, wether they put their trust and still lost, or lose all of their trust to probability just because that one game didn't play like what they want it to be.
Use probability wisely, and you will surely appreciate and honor its abilities.
Probability ofcourse might not be the only reason of your loss but timely calculations do save you a lot of trouble for once, since you have to understand that it's only right to invest in things which are more or so more profitable for you and at the same time have better odds in your favor as well.
- There is a huge factor as well which is choosing the right site which usually ends up being the main factor for the long term customers and there are sites which will give you better odds as well, more than anything the most important thing is Being Lucky! Hands down everything else just follows.
I do not understand what you are trying to prove here? The chances of winning are the primary reason for you winning/losing that is statistics. If you have a 50/50 chance of winning then you know that roughly half the time you bet you will lose. That is not something that is up for debate this is proven over the long run. Yes you can make a bet and win 10 times in a row but if you give it enough time statistics are always proven right and you will get as many losses as wins even if you started of very well. If you are betting you should look at the odds of you winning and you should try to understand what they mean before placing a bet. You cannot cheat the odds the odds are there for a reason they cannot be beat. If they could be beat the casinos would not display them.
ALWAYS REMEMBER THAT PROBABILITY IS JUST A GUIDE THAT WILL INCREASE YOUR CHANCES OF WINNING. Its not a cheat-code that will guarantee your win every now and then.
I've seen people blaming probabilities, wether they put their trust and still lost, or lose all of their trust to probability just because that one game didn't play like what they want it to be.
Use probability wisely, and you will surely appreciate and honor its abilities.
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