Topic: Probability of Bitcoin split (Read 2926 times)

Quote from: Amph on July 15, 2017, 03:59:43 AM

remember that one of the two chain will be an altcoin, just that the other will be the one used by everyone else, also this happened with some alt, like ETH, did eth lose its value? no...

A very convenient position

That is, that the blockchain which should prevail will be a genuine Bitcoin while the other which succumbs will be an impostor, an altcoin. The main issue with this reasoning is that you don't know in advance which one will win and which one will lose. Further, you don't take into account the possibility that any of the competing blockchains may not have an overwhelming advantage over the rest of the pack, so things might get very complicated in respect to which blockchain is going to come out the winner. Apart from that, if Jihancoin succeeds, will you use it yourself?

which win will not matter much as long as you don't move your coin before the split you are safe regardless of what it happen, and your coins will likely be the one of the new main chain

Those who prefer to sit on the fence are usually the ones who got stripped most

It is the same as in war, when a country which doesn't want to side with any belligerent party may eventually end up invaded and split by every belligerent (Switzerland had been quite close to that in WWII). More specifically, you assume that you won't lose anything if you just stick to a "wait and see" approach without taking any action, while, in fact, you may be the one losing most since people may start actively dumping their coins if the hard fork happens for real and a dumping war quickly ensues. They would likely end up with at least some fiat on hands, while you may end up with just a pile of shitcoins worth nothing

not really a good comparison, here it's better to not do anything with your money until all this drama about the split is done, or you are at higher risk to lose everythign if you begin to move your coins

besides we can not do anything, unless you are a miners you can't really express your opinion on what you want it's better, you can onyl vote as a mienrs here

I strongly disagree with this approach

But I certainly understand people like you who are passive in their attitude and prefer just to hope for the best instead of actually doing something to get there. In this case, specifically, you can sell your bitcoins (some part thereof), and if you sold them a week ago, you would have already saved like 400 dollars per bitcoin. You could have bought altcoins (as I bought some lites). Simply put, I disagree that there is nothing what you or me, or we can do. Remember that the absence of proof is not the proof of absence. In other words, if we don't know what to do, it doesn't in the least mean that there is nothing what we can do. It is no more than just our lack of knowledge. And even this lack of knowledge itself is not set in stone, and there are certainly ways to fill this void even though we might not be aware of these ways at this point

ah well i can agree that selling now or before, maybe was a good move for two reasons, one because it would give you some profit, the other because you would secure your bitcoin on the exchange, in case they decide to act strange and choose another fork

but i don't like trading, i prefer to hold until i have my target reached, not to dump of course but to use more my coins, also i don't want to expose much my cold storage by selling now and buying again, not worth the risk for now

inthelongrun

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I don't see a split coming. Although that is possible, a worst case scenario of sort. But I know the team behind bitcoin, the developers, and the miners are doing their best to come up with the most viable option and split is not among them. They are all avoiding a split as it would complicate matters worse.

deisik

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Quote from: deisik on July 14, 2017, 06:18:07 AM

Quote from: deisik on July 14, 2017, 06:18:07 AM

remember that one of the two chain will be an altcoin, just that the other will be the one used by everyone else, also this happened with some alt, like ETH, did eth lose its value? no...

A very convenient position

That is, that the blockchain which should prevail will be a genuine Bitcoin while the other which succumbs will be an impostor, an altcoin. The main issue with this reasoning is that you don't know in advance which one will win and which one will lose. Further, you don't take into account the possibility that any of the competing blockchains may not have an overwhelming advantage over the rest of the pack, so things might get very complicated in respect to which blockchain is going to come out the winner. Apart from that, if Jihancoin succeeds, will you use it yourself?

which win will not matter much as long as you don't move your coin before the split you are safe regardless of what it happen, and your coins will likely be the one of the new main chain

Those who prefer to sit on the fence are usually the ones who got stripped most

It is the same as in war, when a country which doesn't want to side with any belligerent party may eventually end up invaded and split by every belligerent (Switzerland had been quite close to that in WWII). More specifically, you assume that you won't lose anything if you just stick to a "wait and see" approach without taking any action, while, in fact, you may be the one losing most since people may start actively dumping their coins if the hard fork happens for real and a dumping war quickly ensues. They would likely end up with at least some fiat on hands, while you may end up with just a pile of shitcoins worth nothing

not really a good comparison, here it's better to not do anything with your money until all this drama about the split is done, or you are at higher risk to lose everythign if you begin to move your coins

besides we can not do anything, unless you are a miners you can't really express your opinion on what you want it's better, you can onyl vote as a mienrs here

I strongly disagree with this approach

But I certainly understand people like you who are passive in their attitude and prefer just to hope for the best instead of actually doing something to get there. In this case, specifically, you can sell your bitcoins (some part thereof), and if you sold them a week ago, you would have already saved like 400 dollars per bitcoin. You could have bought altcoins (as I bought some lites). Simply put, I disagree that there is nothing what you or me, or we can do. Remember that the absence of proof is not the proof of absence. In other words, if we don't know what to do, it doesn't in the least mean that there is nothing what we can do. It is no more than just our lack of knowledge. And even this lack of knowledge itself is not set in stone, and there are certainly ways to fill this void even though we might not be aware of these ways at this point

Amph

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Quote from: maku on July 14, 2017, 05:18:13 AM

remember that one of the two chain will be an altcoin, just that the other will be the one used by everyone else, also this happened with some alt, like ETH, did eth lose its value? no...

A very convenient position

That is, that the blockchain which should prevail will be a genuine Bitcoin while the other which succumbs will be an impostor, an altcoin. The main issue with this reasoning is that you don't know in advance which one will win and which one will lose. Further, you don't take into account the possibility that any of the competing blockchains may not have an overwhelming advantage over the rest of the pack, so things might get very complicated in respect to which blockchain is going to come out the winner. Apart from that, if Jihancoin succeeds, will you use it yourself?

which win will not matter much as long as you don't move your coin before the split you are safe regardless of what it happen, and your coins will likely be the one of the new main chain

Those who prefer to sit on the fence are usually the ones who got stripped most

It is the same as in war, when a country which doesn't want to side with any belligerent party may eventually end up invaded and split by every belligerent (Switzerland had been quite close to that in WWII). More specifically, you assume that you won't lose anything if you just stick to a "wait and see" approach without taking any action, while, in fact, you may be the one losing most since people may start actively dumping their coins if the hard fork happens for real and a dumping war quickly ensues. They would likely end up with at least some fiat on hands, while you may end up with just a pile of shitcoins worth nothing

not really a good comparison, here it's better to not do anything with your money until all this drama about the split is done, or you are at higher risk to lose everything if you begin to move your coins

besides we can not do anything, unless you are a miners you can't really express your opinion on what you want it's better, you can only vote as a mienrs here

deisik

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2. Even if the split will happen, it will be nothing but a minor setback - Ethereum example is really interesting proof of that

We can't really hope for that

Ethereum split was sort of a Black Swan event, as far as I know, due to the DAO hack and the ensuing rollback of the blockchain, which part of an Ethereum community didn't agree to. With Bitcoin, it is an entirely different affair. If there should be a hard fork (personally, I don't think there will be any but still), it will be well prepared and organized by the mining cartel in advance (they might be getting ready to it right now). Obviously, they won't go for it if the odds are heavily off for them. And this is the scariest thing in the whole shebang if things are set to go that way

DrGuns4Hands

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I don't like this split. it's so freaking bringing nightmare in bitcoin world. when segwit comes much better if you read the news here that you should withdraw all your bitcoin before august 1 in order to avoid error something like that it's better to ready than sorry right ? chain split is the most hard thing to accept that happening in bitcoin. but with the help of segwit we can minimize the transferring of funds .

TastyChillySauce00

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Quote from: Willitivity on July 14, 2017, 07:18:57 AM

Basically, the idea of Bitcoin splitting is one thing that will affect so many upcoming and already active ICOs negatively.
This will bring a drastic drop to the price of bitcoins.
Having too much bitcoins in your wallet but the value is nothing.
Again, how about Altcoins. Huh

How can you be very sure that the price will be falling hard? have you seen ETH splitting which makes the price of ETH is now thousands percent above the other one?.
There's still a chance for bitcoin to be either dumped or pumped hard but pretty curious what is your reason?

Willitivity

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Basically, the idea of Bitcoin splitting is one thing that will affect so many upcoming and already active ICOs negatively.
This will bring a drastic drop to the price of bitcoins.
Having too much bitcoins in your wallet but the value is nothing.
Again, how about Altcoins. Huh

ilovefeetsmell

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Quote from: Nodari_Cindicator on July 06, 2017, 03:22:31 PM

Hi, in your opinion what's the probability of Bitcoin's split (e.g. 1:100 bitcoins, so if you have one bitcoin you'll have 100, but the price will be 100 times smaller - about $2.6)?

I think this will greatly improve Bitcoin growth because it's more complicated to surge from $2600 to $10000 than from $2.6 to $10

This is just a speculation, it is impossible to happen but it's alarming when you holding more than one bitcoin. Your bitcoin will become useless when split it into smaller about $2.6. I read it a few hours later about August 1 prediction, I can't believe that bitcoin will split because it is very popular and most of the people owning a bitcoin. Maybe before August 1 panic selling of bitcoin. It is a bad news for those hard working people to own bitcoin.

deisik

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Quote from: Nodari_Cindicator on July 06, 2017, 03:22:31 PM

remember that one of the two chain will be an altcoin, just that the other will be the one used by everyone else, also this happened with some alt, like ETH, did eth lose its value? no...

A very convenient position

That is, that the blockchain which should prevail will be a genuine Bitcoin while the other which succumbs will be an impostor, an altcoin. The main issue with this reasoning is that you don't know in advance which one will win and which one will lose. Further, you don't take into account the possibility that any of the competing blockchains may not have an overwhelming advantage over the rest of the pack, so things might get very complicated in respect to which blockchain is going to come out the winner. Apart from that, if Jihancoin succeeds, will you use it yourself?

which win will not matter much as long as you don't move your coin before the split you are safe regardless of what it happen, and your coins will likely be the one of the new main chain

Those who prefer to sit on the fence are usually the ones who got stripped most

It is the same as in war, when a country which doesn't want to side with any belligerent party may eventually end up invaded and split by every belligerent (Switzerland had been quite close to that in WWII). More specifically, you assume that you won't lose anything if you just stick to a "wait and see" approach without taking any action, while, in fact, you may be the one losing most since people may start actively dumping their coins if the hard fork happens for real and a dumping war quickly ensues. They would likely end up with at least some fiat on hands, while you may end up with just a pile of shitcoins worth nothing

mdripon

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Hi, in your opinion what's the probability of Bitcoin's split (e.g. 1:100 bitcoins, so if you have one bitcoin you'll have 100, but the price will be 100 times smaller - about $2.6)?

I think this will greatly improve Bitcoin growth because it's more complicated to surge from $2600 to $10000 than from $2.6 to $10

I think not. Bitcoin demand growth fast and it is digital money market in the world.

Amph

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Quote from: Rahar02 on July 14, 2017, 04:23:20 AM

remember that one of the two chain will be an altcoin, just that the other will be the one used by everyone else, also this happened with some alt, like ETH, did eth lose its value? no...

A very convenient position

That is, that the blockchain which should prevail will be a genuine Bitcoin while the other which succumbs will be an impostor, an altcoin. The main issue with this reasoning is that you don't know in advance which one will win and which one will lose. Further, you don't take into account the possibility that any of the competing blockchains may not have an overwhelming advantage over the rest of the pack, so things might get very complicated in respect to which blockchain is going to come out the winner. Apart from that, if Jihancoin succeeds, will you use it yourself?

which win will not matter much as long as you don't move your coin before the split you are safe regardless of what it happen, and your coins will likely be the one of the new main chain

by succeding you mean that jihancoin will be the main chain and be used by all the exchange, which for me translate into being the new "core chain" well at that point if everyone else use that fork i would be forced to use it too

but in any case i'm always with the core dev team...

deisik

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Bip148 is UASF (User Activated Soft Fork) that will be implemented between midnight August 1st and midnight November 15th, then after few months miners will increase the block size limit and it require hard fork which mean split is likely to happen and miners will mining blocks that signaling for segwit. But, no miner would continue mining a coin with no value and we will follow the most mined.
If we look at the Bitcoin proposal support, segwit2x has reach over 87% and hopefully it will works to resolve bitcoin problems regarding scale solution and high fees

These figures are misleading

If Antpool withdraws their vote in favor of SegWit2x, there won't be enough support to activate it. Presently, Antpool and other pools linked to Jihan Wu own a lot more than 20% of hashing power, so their withdrawal means that SegWit2x falls flat right on its face. Apart from that, if through some miracle or direct intervention of Satoshi, UASF (Bip148) gets accepted, there is no way for miners to push Bad Blocks any more. That event, if it should happen, would mark the beginning of the end of mining as we know it today and likely rebirth of Bitcoin itself as well

maku

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1. No one wants bitcoin to split, I don't think we have enough of bitcoin terrorist with sufficient hash power which could lead to split.
2. Even if the split will happen, it will be nothing but a minor setback - Ethereum example is really interesting proof of that.
3. All threads about crash, split, end of bitcoin are pure FUD. The only thing we have to fear is... fear itself. Bitcoin will succeed.

Tamilson

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Quote from: Duzter on July 14, 2017, 04:46:03 AM

Looking upon the entire history Segwit signalling has gained maximum support, but none has indicated that the split is assured as the time period is mentioned to happen between 1st of august to November 15th. Hope if some sort of splitting happens too, it should not affect the value of bitcoin.

The least we can do now is to trust bitcoin and hope something good will happen during the activation of segwit2x. It's the make or break situation for all of us.

Idrisu

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I will not want bitcoin to split into some units because together we stand and divided we fall. We should come to the agreement to see bitcoin survived. If bitcoin splits then crytocurrency founders arm will be defeated. I will not pray for splitting and I think ,I spoke the mind of most bitcoiner on this forum.

ethereumhunter

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Quote from: Nodari_Cindicator on July 06, 2017, 03:22:31 PM

Hi, in your opinion what's the probability of Bitcoin's split (e.g. 1:100 bitcoins, so if you have one bitcoin you'll have 100, but the price will be 100 times smaller - about $2.6)?

I think this will greatly improve Bitcoin growth because it's more complicated to surge from $2600 to $10000 than from $2.6 to $10

everything is possible to happened since we don't know what will we see in future. but if this is real, then after august 1, bitcoin price itself will reach more high and the new coin will followed too. but i will stick with bitcoin only and for the new coin, maybe i will keep it longer to see how good the coin to survive in cryptocurrency. if the new coin is good enough to keep as investment then i will save and i will trade it if i can make profit.

Duzter

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Looking upon the entire history Segwit signalling has gained maximum support, but none has indicated that the split is assured as the time period is mentioned to happen between 1st of august to November 15th. Hope if some sort of splitting happens too, it should not affect the value of bitcoin.

Rahar02

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Bip148 is UASF (User Activated Soft Fork) that will be implemented between midnight August 1st and midnight November 15th, then after few months miners will increase the block size limit and it require hard fork which mean split is likely to happen and miners will mining blocks that signaling for segwit. But, no miner would continue mining a coin with no value and we will follow the most mined.
If we look at the Bitcoin proposal support, segwit2x has reach over 87% and hopefully it will works to resolve bitcoin problems regarding scale solution and high fees.

Kate_CND

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Quote from: Fatunad on July 07, 2017, 11:23:58 AM

Quote from: webtricks on July 07, 2017, 11:19:54 AM

Quote from: Nodari_Cindicator on July 06, 2017, 03:22:31 PM

Hi, in your opinion what's the probability of Bitcoin's split (e.g. 1:100 bitcoins, so if you have one bitcoin you'll have 100, but the price will be 100 times smaller - about $2.6)?

I think this will greatly improve Bitcoin growth because it's more complicated to surge from $2600 to $10000 than from $2.6 to $10

Depends how you treat.
You can use mBTC as your unit to send/receive Bitcoin and your problem is solved.
I ain't able to understand your concern. BTC is just unit of Bitcoin. Suppose Lisk is $2.25 per LSK at present. I may use word GLSK for 1000 Lisk so if I got 2000 Lisk, I may recognize it as 2k LSK or 2 GLSK. it won't affect price at all.

Why would people do think that bitcoin do need a split? since we can able to read it with the terms of mbtc and as many others said here the probability and in need of split is really on slim chance but well we cant tell what would happen on next month event if there would be a split or not and those calculations that are made on the op isnt too unrealistic to consider.

Not sure that the split is technically possible, but everyone who trades not just cryptocurrencies but stocks, futures etc knows why the split is needed.

deisik

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