go to bitcoinwisdom
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
put in 1gh you get 0.000002357 divide 25 by that number you get 10,606,703 to 1 or
1,532,313,302GH/s for whole network so 1,532,313,302 to 1 WTF why are the numbers different. we make 144 blocks a day
so 144 x 10,606,703 = 1,527,365,294 to one due to rounding errors it is not a perfect match
so
odds for a block with 1gh = 1,530,000,000 to one
odds for a day with 1gh = 10,600,000 to one rounded it a bit
10gh = 153,000,000 block
10gh = 1,060,000 day
100gh = 15,300,000 block
100gh = 106,000 day
1000gh = 1,530,000 block
1000gh = 10,600 day
10,000gh = 153,000 block this is the lowest rental from nicehash
10,000gh = 1,060 day
Topic: probability of generating a block solo mining Bitcoin vs lottery (Read 31819 times)
Right now, If I were to solo mine Bitcoin with a low hash rate (300mh/s) what are my chances of generating a block?
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
wow a funny idea lol...
i wouldnt try it even with a really good hardware because u can never get it... too risky.
You better buy good hardware and go to pool,the profit will be small but constant,which is most important i think
I calculated the odds of raking in the block reward with 60Gh/s at the current hash rate.
My odds are about 1:21.877.050
So for your 400 Gh/s it would be around 1:3.281.885 if I calculated correctly.
My odds are about 1:21.877.050
So for your 400 Gh/s it would be around 1:3.281.885 if I calculated correctly.
Yeah, count me in too, I'm running a 400 GHs machine on ck solo pool. Wish there was online calculator.
Funny, I just had the same thought and now started solo mining with 60Gh/s.
What are my chances nowadays of raking in the block reward with that gear?
Still better than winning in lotto (which is 1:139.838.160)?
What are my chances nowadays of raking in the block reward with that gear?
Still better than winning in lotto (which is 1:139.838.160)?
January 28, 2015, 06:33:50 AM
Best share 288K!
Come on my little beauties. Watch out megafarms, we're coming for your blocks!
Come on my little beauties. Watch out megafarms, we're coming for your blocks!
January 27, 2015, 09:59:01 AM
had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets. someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Isn't mining only for companies that can construct ASIC's now, and even then most of them fail.
And for desperately hopeful romantics feeling lucky...
January 27, 2015, 09:23:33 AM
had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets. someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Isn't mining only for companies that can construct ASIC's now, and even then most of them fail.
January 27, 2015, 03:52:29 AM
Maybe I should switch my two antminers off then. Hope dies hard 
EDIT: Maybe I'll keep them running for a couple more weeks. We're off on honeymoon 9 months late due to work commitments and a solo mined block would be a hugely fortuitous way to pimp our break
You've got to be in it to win it!
EDIT: Maybe I'll keep them running for a couple more weeks. We're off on honeymoon 9 months late due to work commitments and a solo mined block would be a hugely fortuitous way to pimp our break
You've got to be in it to win it! 
January 27, 2015, 01:07:35 AM
had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
Lottery sells hope, solo mining sells loss. There is no way around using a pool now, then the luck turns the other way: tiny revenue in comparison to ruffled looking raffle tickets. someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
January 25, 2015, 03:57:53 PM
had to un-shit my pants - realized posts originally from 2013. because someone asked how long would it take, someone pointed 1ths or so, and had a block in no time. i was... excited and confused.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
someone recently lucked one with nominal hashing considering the task. just luck.
there's a difference between hashing and catching.
January 24, 2015, 01:24:50 PM
Good answer, thanks!
Definitely better "value" than playing the lottery though even if both are throwing your money away (depending on luck).
Definitely better "value" than playing the lottery though even if both are throwing your money away (depending on luck).
January 24, 2015, 12:03:10 PM
with 4 gh you should get around 500 K shares at the pool and the current network difficulty is 43 Billlion , your probability of solving a block is around 9.8 yrs. so you would spent more money on electricity in those 9.8 yrs to get 12.5 BTC (BTC reward will be halve to 12.5 btc in about 2 yrs from now)
than buying lottery tickets. either ways, not good investment.
than buying lottery tickets. either ways, not good investment.
January 24, 2015, 08:12:01 AM
Massive dredge!
I am having a debate with a friend about the probability of solo mining a block at 4Gh/s at current difficulty and specifically we are comparing it to the UK National Lottery which costs £2 to play with a probability of winning £1,000 of 1:55000 and a probability of winning £50k of 1:2,300,000...(jackpot is roughly 1:14,000,000)
We estimate that the probability of solo mining a block at 4GH/s to be roughly 1:600,000.
Do you think we are approximately correct?
I am having a debate with a friend about the probability of solo mining a block at 4Gh/s at current difficulty and specifically we are comparing it to the UK National Lottery which costs £2 to play with a probability of winning £1,000 of 1:55000 and a probability of winning £50k of 1:2,300,000...(jackpot is roughly 1:14,000,000)
We estimate that the probability of solo mining a block at 4GH/s to be roughly 1:600,000.
Do you think we are approximately correct?
October 26, 2013, 10:45:19 PM
September 19, 2013, 05:53:02 PM
Clearly there is some luck involved. I've been hashing less than two months with these and found a block. But I was pool mining, so...
Did you get a better return for finding it. EclipseMC seems to be finding a lot of blocks since when I run that straight my miners keep stopping and going but none were mine. I haven't found a management strategy that works both to get me the most shares and increase my chance of finding a block in a pool.
September 13, 2013, 11:22:56 PM
Clearly there is some luck involved. I've been hashing less than two months with these and found a block. But I was pool mining, so...
September 13, 2013, 03:11:06 PM
Here you go, got block #255822 with 164.19M difficulty
and the coinbase
http://blockchain.info/tx/08bcaf3c83fa1b900a5828fd24f4000ed398435ef1906c85a01114f9ee0a6a58?show_adv=true
and the coinbase
http://blockchain.info/tx/08bcaf3c83fa1b900a5828fd24f4000ed398435ef1906c85a01114f9ee0a6a58?show_adv=true
So with current diff, at 86M. your making 5.4 coins (in a pool) per day.. you made 25 coins in 5 days august 30th to september 3rd (solo mining).
Do you still solo mine? have you gotten lucky?
Im thinking of trying.. but dont have 950GH.
Got three blocks since Aug 30/31, I sold one rig so last week was doing solo with one rig, did not get anything.
Now, I got another rig, so will try solo with two rigs again. Hit 67M just hours ago, but 86 is the target now...
Is it worth it? I don't think so. The variance is killing me. Last week I could have made 18-20 with one rig, but instead I got nothing.
If you have less than 500GH, don't do it. Even with 1TH, it is a big gamble.
I'd feel more comfortable with 2-3TH or more, but 1TH?
thanks for sharing! bit far from 1 th.. hm ok.
September 13, 2013, 08:01:00 AM
Here you go, got block #255822 with 164.19M difficulty
and the coinbase
http://blockchain.info/tx/08bcaf3c83fa1b900a5828fd24f4000ed398435ef1906c85a01114f9ee0a6a58?show_adv=true
and the coinbase
http://blockchain.info/tx/08bcaf3c83fa1b900a5828fd24f4000ed398435ef1906c85a01114f9ee0a6a58?show_adv=true
So with current diff, at 86M. your making 5.4 coins (in a pool) per day.. you made 25 coins in 5 days august 30th to september 3rd (solo mining).
Do you still solo mine? have you gotten lucky?
Im thinking of trying.. but dont have 950GH.
September 03, 2013, 02:56:28 PM
What hardware for 950GH?
August 30, 2013, 12:03:34 PM
I was on eclipsemc pool with my ~950GH, got blocks solved every few days.
Whoa dude thats a lot of hash-power. A ASIC farm?
August 30, 2013, 10:08:01 AM
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
August 29, 2013, 09:52:06 PM
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
and difficulty going up at least 20% in 6 days
Though a guy on my pool did find a block on an overclocked 333mh block eruptor after mining on it a week or 2 - there is luck involved
August 29, 2013, 01:25:54 PM
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
4-5 times a second means 84500 (seconds in a day) times 3 which is 338000 and 4,850,000 divided by 338000 is 14, so that's a 1/14 chance a day. So basically 1 block every couple weeks. But somethin' tells me it's a lil harder than that. What do you guys think about this?
Was funny how you call it a lottery, though I got 2 when I first started learning about bitcoins. The bad of it like you say you need alot of processing power and I didn't 
and I missed out. ALSO, even if I did I'm not quite sure I had it setup right to deposit to my account and would have been mining for free 
.
Might have been the fact that I had a fresh index but I wish I had that luck on a more known lottery in my area. I'm going to try again if I ever get my bitcoin miner
and I missed out. ALSO, even if I did I'm not quite sure I had it setup right to deposit to my account and would have been mining for free .Might have been the fact that I had a fresh index but I wish I had that luck on a more known lottery in my area. I'm going to try again if I ever get my bitcoin miner
but what about if i get lucky?
easy 25 btc
at 300megahash in a pool you need more than 25 months anyway to get a reward of a block(25bitcoin)
i'm talking at when the diff was 5m
easy 25 btc
at 300megahash in a pool you need more than 25 months anyway to get a reward of a block(25bitcoin)
i'm talking at when the diff was 5m
Thanks.
So it is possible to solo mine and be extremely lucky and hit a block right away, except the chance of this happening is currently 1 in 4,850,000
Yep. Pretty much.So it is possible to solo mine and be extremely lucky and hit a block right away, except the chance of this happening is currently 1 in 4,850,000
Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.
Yeah thought so. cheers pal. Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.
Yeah thought so. :) cheers pal.
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
Thanks.
So it is possible to solo mine and be extremely lucky and hit a block right away, except the chance of this happening is currently 1 in 4,850,000
Short answer: Not worth it. Get a pool. I recommend Ozcoin.
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Sort of. For pooled mining, 300MH/s means you're checking 300,000,000 hashes every second to find a valid share, and should get about 4 - 4.5 shares a minute. A share is anything with a difficulty >= 1. If the share's difficulty is over 4.85 million (the current difficulty), then it's a successful block.
For solo mining, we don't care about diff=1 shares. All we care about are the diff>4.85million, or the block solvers. And yes, a diff=4.85million share will pop up about once for every 4.85million diff=1 shares.
So as far as the lottery analogy is concerned, it's more like 1 in 4,850,000, but that lottery happens 4-5 times a second, not once per day like the PowerBall.
I think your chances at finding a block are MUCH better than winning a lottery. That being said I would think at 300 MH\s it would take you 2 years 73 days to generate a block on average.
zif
zif
Haha, wow 3 years. Is it possible to work out the odds of solving the next block? (As in the next 10 minutes)
At 300MH/s and current difficulty of ~4.8mio you'll need an average of ~800days to generate 1 block,
difficulty will change soon to ~6.8mio, puts your 300MH/s to an average of ~1000days per block.
You might get lucky and solve a block in 1year, or never, which is more likely.
difficulty will change soon to ~6.8mio, puts your 300MH/s to an average of ~1000days per block.
You might get lucky and solve a block in 1year, or never, which is more likely.
Right now, If I were to solo mine Bitcoin with a low hash rate (300mh/s) what are my chances of generating a block?
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
I heard that the chance to generate a block is like playing a lottery, like the odds are 1 in 8,000,000. Is this true?
Jump to: