Topic: Probability of Hard Fork Update (Read 2175 times)

Seems at least from the bitcoin core point of view they expect this kinda hostile takeover etc by bitcoinXT and bitcoin unlimited to just be an 'on going' thing
and sounds to me like in the article below they are just gonna ignore it ...(seems price or PRICE...lowering..... hit is not a priority with BTC core devs)

The logic (if I have this right) they say is overall consensus is for seg witness or at least the bitcoin core devs ....from again how I read between the lines on this article
...these other flavors of bitcoin devs are simply trying to muddy the waters...so if they can get enough
to fork bitcoin ..you have enough to then be bitcoin major dev core...so till then go away...20-30% of miners are always gonna push for 'hostile takeover' but it is NOT
a hostile take over if you get concensus in 'open source projects' thus..they NEVER will get enough to matter so bitcoin core will ignore.....

catch with that logic is even if true .....the other flavors of bitcoin devs who want in...if say they get 30% of folk to agree...can act as a boat anchor for years to come
on stopping seg witness/higher transaction fees etc..but hey ...seems the way of it ..from the article ...

anyway the article...you can make your own 'delusional' conclusions like myself

http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-on-developers-arent-worried-about-fork/

So if bitcoin core really, really is in he camp of 'we don't care about price' and won't respond to these pressure tactics...then we may be in for a long haul of
600 or so BTC and no movement ...with alts eating more of our lunch...

well myself....I will win even if btc goes to $1 on my btc hoard..only thing I have into BTC now is time/money/hobby ....mined my way out since 2013...

Still damn annoying to watch $$$ dispear in this 'nerd fight' on bitcoin code....poof ....there goes the $$$

Oh well .never thought I'd get the BTC I have anyway.....so gonna  go with my alternate mantra of delusional ego protection and denial on all this FUD

cheap coin/cheap coin/cheap coin

vs my prefered mantra

pump/pump/pump

(good to have a delusional hobby/viewpoint I guess...always covered in the future no matter which way the wind shifts)

https://poloniex.com/press-releases/2017.03.17-Hard-Fork/

https://poloniex.com/press-releases/2016.07.26-responses-to-common-etc-questions/

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/4ue785/i_am_filing_a_complaint_with_the_sec_regarding/

some people weren't too happy with how poloniex handled the etc thing. they also listed it without telling anyone.

again, don't trust an exchange. they all have their policies and vested interests that may not match yours. by taking control of your coins no one makes any decision for you.

You really need 3 forks to do it right,a soft fork to implement the code a hard fork to separate the network and another hard fork to drop the defunct chain.Just one hard fork will create an altcoin along with a bitcoin.Some exchanges are only going to recognise the hard fork chain thats why Bitcoin price could collapse so buyers beware in the near term.

Thanks for that info. After reading that press release, it sounds like Poloniex only lets the customer control the winning coin and lets the losing coin depreciate to nothing. I guess the positive is that we get to keep whichever survives so no net loss.

If Bitcoin Unlimited miners will initiate forking right when they reach 51% it will be the stupidest idea ever. They never should do that.
That hasty move can easily backfire. They need to wait to reach more than 70%-75%, this will be the only fair way to ensure that bitcoin split won't happen.

Bitcoin Unlimited is not ready, code must be perfected, take your time devs.

I think a lot has lost its trust already. Because the price is going down. They are all going to alt coins in anticipation of a hard fork. But I still do believe that the price will rise even though its not the case right now. I'm still not loosing hope on this because bitcoin had been in this kind of situation before and was able to rise.

That is still 30% too little.  It seems to me like Bitcoin is so fragmented at the moment that reaching 70% or 75% will be difficult.
I really hope there isn't a hard fork and that some agreement can be reached beforehand. It Bitcoin forks, it becomes another crappy alt and all trust will be lost.

Lets face it, the only thing really holding the price up is trust, we aren't using bitcoin enough to warrant a high price, it is stored in wallets in the hope that it rises.

Where did you get that information? The linked site (coin.dance) says 34% hash rate for BU.

But the rate of change looks disconcerting. If BU really made good of their promise to 51% attack the network to own all mining power, that could potentially happen in one or two months, IF the trend continues. Which it won't, because there are only so many pools to sway, but a disconceting thought nonetheless.

Yeah keeping coin on an exchange would be risky right now, but I don't think BU will get the support and hard fork will happen at least in the next month. Even with 50% support chances of hard fork are still low.

Wow BU at 46% support! Crazy! This thing may go down this very weekend. And people know it. The price is plummeting again.

That is right. Hard fork can happen if it is implemented properly. Ethereum had many hard forks in the past and the price is rising.

They have an announcement on this: https://poloniex.com/press-releases/2017.03.17-Hard-Fork/

Yeah hardfork is the base which has made bitcoin reach such a high position. So even now when bitcoin unlimited has got majority support it was unable to take control, but at the same just because of hardfork price is trying to gain stabilty. So I believe hardfork will be successful.

Don't keep any coins on an exchange just now no one needs to wait on a consensus.If BU think it has the miners and exchanges behind it a hard fork could happen anytime

I keep some Bitcoins on Poloniex for trading. Does anyone know how they handle customer's coins in a hard fork. What did Poloniex do with Etherium?

Antpool comprises of about 40% of that 38.6% signaling for BU. As far as I know Antpool is the only one that has publicly hinted at possibly wanting a hostile fork.  True consensus is 95% hashrate. I just don't see it playing out at this point. Community support is leaning Segwit by a large degree. (Yes, I know it is not hashrate, but community sentiment is informative).




https://coin.dance/poli

don't let an exchange decide what happens to your coins. some of them have some pretty weird policies and they're talking about freezing operations.

control your own private keys and your coins will have a carbon copy on the new chain so the amount will double. they certainly won't be worth double though.

So what happens to my Bitcoins if there is a hard fork? Do I have the same amount of both coins? Does an exchange get to decide in a situation where I have coins on an exchange?

More and more I am thinking that BU is just bluffing Core.  Once the hashrate supporting BU is a majority that will help their side in negotiations.  I think deep down no one wants a contentious hard fork that could risk not only Bitcoin but cryptocurrencies all together.

Miners are making money on high fees right now, but the majority of the money they make is based on the coin having a high value.  I'm not sure how crazy Jihan Wu is, but thats a big risk to your livelyhood.

Well maybe, but not necessarily.  In theory BU would prefer to have upwards of 75% of support to go through, and this would be ideal if they want people to actually use the new coin.

in the next month In about 2-3 months (a more reasonable timeframe), it's pretty likely if less dedicated Core supporters start to conform out of a desire to get it over with.  If it happens though, most users might stick with classic Bitcoin, causing the new coin to be meaningless like ETC.

Time to switch pools no more Antpool, lets switch to any pools mining with Core(main version). if any one performs a hard fork without 95% of nodes consensus and +75% of hash power consensus deserves becoming alt coin and devalued. it doesn't make any sense, why are there different versions? if those developers think that they know better then why change anything in the code? go ahead and make your own alt coin or maybe they think by changing something they can have advantage over others?

nah. pure assumption but i am convinced he controls far more than he admits to.

maybe the 40-50% barrier is where it stalls if it manages to get there. that's when you might have to actually think this stuff through properly. it's getting close. i just can't see any rational person voting to push it through.

Jihan Wu definitely accounts for a major part of the total hash power, but I don't think it's anywhere near the 70-80% you seem to be pointing at. Can you link me to an article or whatever else that somewhat 'confirms' your assumption? Other than that, things will indeed get more interesting when we come closer to the final point. I wouldn't even be surprised when certain pools suddenly drop their support for BU when things are about to get real serious.

The chart looks interesting today

Last 1000 blocks still at 38,6% but the last 144 blocks are down to 34,7% for BU

Can of course be a coincidence and "BU-miners" found less blocks today than "segwit-miners".

https://coin.dance/blocks

Might be an underestimation IMO. Some big fishes hasn't still decided where to commit.

This is a great write up on one large risk for BU users in a split. If BItcoin Core and the smaller current 1mb implementations regain hash power majority in the future, say after BU has been running for years, the entire old BU chain would orphan potentially as it rejoins.

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/how-bitcoin-unlimited-users-may-end-different-blockchains/

First of all, there's quite a big step from 38% to 50%+. I remember SegWit had also very promising % at start and then stopped and even decreased.
So basically we should care of this when BU gets way over 45%, maybe 48-49%.

Now your questions:
From what I know, BU has something hardcoded and only after a very big % of network is theirs, only then they will hardfork. So while in theory, at 51% they have the chance to hardfork just by emitting bigger blocks, they don't intend to. Of course, politics can trigger a change of ideas, change in code, update and kaboom. But no. The battle is to get the whole network. The battle is to get the coin. A coin that now valuates about 1000$ a piece.

If they do it wrong, they can end up with a chain supporting a coin with much less value, which is not a good business.

So they want the network. That means much more work and persuasion. One month is not enough time. If they do it in the next month the chance for a fiasco is too big. They are smarter than to risk that.

TL;DR: The danger of hardfork in the next month is under 5%.

I say in 2 weeks, first days of April...

the chance are slim, 51% is not enough, but i noticed that while BU increase two points percentage, segwit also did so and increase 1-2 points, was 25-26% before

this seems a nice website with a recap about mined block distribution http://xtnodes.com/

for a HF you need consensus, without it only an altcoin.
so 51% is just a step.

the first part is the easy part. the closer it gets the harder it's gonna be to convince other miners to come on board. that's assuming that this jihan guy doesn't control 70-80% of the hashing which he probably does but doesn't want to admit right now.

Well none can know that for sure but the BU blocks are rising fast lately.
If it's going to happen, it will happen in the next month or two i belive.

https://coin.dance/blocks




So... when BU gets 50% there is high danger of hard fork?



What do you think are the chances that a hard fork happens in the next month in %?