Topic: Profitability of the new bfl monarchs (600ghs) (Read 10368 times)

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/butterflylabs-monarch-a-unprofitable-investment/

If a monarch order from today turns out to be profitable you will get 101 times back your money.

(still would not recommend to predict on that)

And the winner is?


Still no Monarch today. Not expected tomorrow. 15 months since they quietly started development.

i was really thinking about buying a monarch, but i'm just not convinced bfl will be able to produce these anywhere near their speculated time frame.

Well, here we are, less than three and a half months later, bitcoin difficulty is over 900,000,000 and the next expected difficulty is well beyond the billion mark.

Difficulty did not cap and it shows no signs of capping for the next six months which is as far ahead as we can see.

There are better deals then this, cointerra is coming out with 2 TH/s same with blackarrow...

The monarch is good, but like you said not from BFL...

Im pretty sure BFL will be out of business by mid-2014, they have a customer retention rate of around 5% and other companies are just thrashing them in terms of gh/$, oh well Sonny and Josh, you made a few mil had a nice ride and now the party is over. Cant say Im sorry to see you go.

there is no point in buying a monarch if you get it over a year late, by then it may only be worth $50 dollars, and forget about ROI, it will be 99% loss.
remember BFL in their own words the guarantee a shipment in 2 or more months, so a year or later is within what is an acceptable shipping schedule for them.

This card will be negative ROI once it arrives.   Mark my words.  The question is what is an acceptable loss?   -100% ROI to ROI?   You will be within in this band so only exchange rate speculation may bail you out.    Before BFL hits, expect another 8-14 PETAHASH to come online so make sure you figure the difficulty well over 1 billion.

BFL is going delay as usual. And they need to because why would they hand over "xyz" amount of Terra Hash all at once into the network?

The ones who will make money are the 1st orders as how the 5ghz asic jalapeno 1st came out.

Its also another reason why on ebay, the 5ghz were worth like 8 times the value.

Ouch, you poured almost $30K into the BFL hole. 

Count me as one of those saps who figured an upgrade would give some hope of being able to mine. What worse is I used BTC to do it! In a fiat sense, it would be ok once the fiat conversion of BTC rises. But certainly not when everything is denominated in BTC. I'm hedged between holding actual coin, mining stocks and hopefully a miner that gets delivered sometime SOON. Been beating up on myself for doing it. Heck, the SINGLE order was 93 BTC at the time. That's one expensive piece of vaporware.

/rant

i just recieved my jalapenis feels good man even though its worthless now, kicking myself even more because i sold about 15 bitcoin 3 months ago which would be worth a fuck load right now

Debating about Cointerra.... They seem to be on the ball...although the charged their December shipment 13k.  6k for the January shipment might still be worth it...so I buy or just invest in BTC....Buy 28 BTC...or this machine...what to do...

People need to do some research before they buy something from company.. But oh well...

They already made their money from us - but they're going to be making money from whole lot of fresh faces!

BFL just need to fool the whole world once is enough for them to make ton of money.

BFL fooled everyone once with the FPGAs, Then fooled everyone .....well I lost count how many times with first gen. ASICs,(currently still fooling people). And now they are giving you a third chance to be fooled by them....are people really that stupid....unfortunately, it looks that way.

If this "BitPay processes $1 Million BTC order for BFL" was a real investor order... or customer as they like to deceive.  Anyone that has a Monarch order is really screwed. You can bet your ass the purchaser got a discount and will be given special treatment.

Lets trust them for one last time , and remember to use credit card (easier to get refund) instead of BTC or paypal...

To be honest BFL will do this to you, delay the orders, make a few stories up, but will hash with the hardware themselves, wait for the diff to increase a bit, then hand you what you ordered, after they have hashed a mint on there own private pool.

No, it's a 0% chance. Zero. Nada. Impossible for them to ship it on time.

Lets assume this time they are right on time (0.0001% chance), yes it would ROI base on 30% difficulty increment but not 40%.

Jump in man , you never know if you never go !

+1

Lol

At the same time - I've been mulling over the monarch - but I guess it's way too late to purchase them now as they only have January shipment dates =/

There's also the cointerra - they look pretty good too =)

Any pre-order now is indeed a slap in the face to all past and future miners.

First you are giving an interest free loan.

2nd you are now giving the needed funding to make the people you are pre-ordering from your direct competition towards network growth.

And finally if they do not deliver you are assuming all the risk.

So why pre-order unless you wish to support the company of choice.

As was said many times. The prices that these guys are asking do not properly reflect the amount of risk you are taking as an investor.
You are funding their operation with less return at the end for your efforts.

Edit: this goes for all company's asking the general public to fund their research and development, with a zero interest free loan.

This is all by DESIGN ..the pre-order is a convieneant way to lock your money up so that it does not hash and keep the diff low for them

When there is nothing left u may get your equipment..proudly brought to you by CONMASTERS INC

Most likely they will deliver after 1-2 years, so expected profit is -99.999% of invested capital.

I estimate profitability from buying a BFL Monarch at 0%.

Margin of error of +/- 4%

LOL

"profitability" and "bfl" are mutually exclusive, if you are pre-ordering today. BFL will not deliver your precious monarch by next February, if you order one today; it will be more like December 2014, if then.

At a glance, I read this thread's title as "Probability of the new bfl monarchs (600ghs)" 

ı admıt the current prıces are expensıve because they dont delıver for atleast 5 months . by the tıme ıt ıs ready and shıpped ıts value ıs dropped by atleast 30 percent.

I would say it's looking to be a certain EV- investement even if they would deliver on time, there's no chance you will make your btc's back on an investment in BLF's ASIC at the prices they charge now.

Tips for calculating the return of hardware:

Don't extrapolate out more than 6 months. There are simply too many unknowns and hash rate is growing too fast during a disruptive period to make predictions past that point.  If the delivery date is more than 6 months away, don't bother buying it because you cannot anticipate what sort of conditions you will receive the hardware under.

Don't include exchange rate in your calculations.

Never happen.  BTC is too volatile a price point and power costs would be sky high.  Companies rely on Fiat, they'd have to sell daily or risk losing value.  Imagine 10-15% of all bitcoins mined being sold every single day.  Who'd want to buy them knowing it's coming from these greedy companies who refuse to sell the equipment and mine with it instead? 

All in all, what is being said is its still going to be somewhat profitable to mine just not a get rich quick scheme anymore.

I think you are making the assumption that all that hashpower will be retail.  I would venture to say the endgame is getting close (middle of 2014?).  Asic Producers will be self mining as it won't be profitable to sell low margin chips when they can just self-mine at $.5/GH ($500/TH).  This assumes they have been through a pre-order retail round for NRE recpature.  I believe that level is sustainable by the different producers who want to keep their 10 to 15% slice of the network.

You chart looks nice and all, but since the difficulty only retargets every 2016 blocks, your daily diminishing returns paint a far bleaker picture than reality.  In order to get your 41M daily increase, there would have to be more than 300TH added to the network every day.  That is the equivalent of 600 mini-rig units, or 500 monarchs or 150 TerraMiner IV's.  You are talking $2,100,000-3,000,000 DAILY being spent on equipment and that's using the best $/TH ratios currently out there.  Over a quarter of a billion dollars by the end of the year and another billion next year.  You'd be closer to reality if you factored in that 41M on a per week basis.

also I think 100,000 ASIC miners is more realistic, 40-50% being monarchs over the next 12 months

Average it out at 500gh/s that is 5ph/s in the next year. Isn't it?


Yes there has been substantial growth in difficulty but I don't believe they will bring out a new ASIC in less then 12 months it defies market logic. Even the monarch has been pushing it but they know the monarch won't be ready for another 5-6 months .

Speaking from a marketing point of view they would know that the ship date is a bit early but worst case scenario they will ship 2 months late. So 6 months til you get your batch of monarch. February -march well see the difficulty jump again. Around January December well see the full range of 4th generation miners from bfl. They will have a 4month minimum ship date. Best case scenario 90 days if bfl ups its shit and doesn't have the delays we saw this year.

Bfl would have folded by now if it planned on running off with out money and it wouldn't have made such a bad start to its business by pissing off customers. It's not too good to be true because it isn't too good we have to wait months for our ASics they aren't scamming us people have received their units ordered in the prior year.

Now realistically speaking lets make a realistic chart. You can't go and make a chart based on recent growth because there is simply no way the worlds ASIC companies will be able to manufacture 33,000,000 ASIC miners capable of 500gh/s minimum outputs.

I'm going to put together some data and see what we come up with I suggest some of you do the same.

Taking into account that list of the ASIC miners ordered from bfl and we will have to assume it makes up at least 50% of the recent hash rate increase.(I'm not quite sure what percent of the market they hold).


Then we take into account how much they have produced and shipped in the last 14 months work out their production rate add a reasonable percent , 30-35% increased production.

I can't be bothered looking it up right now I'm on my phone but when I get infrint of a pc ill source some data. Ill put up a poll later to get rough numbers of ASIC companies customers etc.


There is just too much horseshit speculation going on and I don't like it. I honestly believe you can still turn a profit in 12 months from an ASIC unit. We should also work out an equation of hash rate to difficulty to use as a guideline when considering ASIC units. If there already is one please help and show us. Not looking at usd value though try not to use fiat currency as a guide when looking at profit , ROI . Lets use btc.because that minimises exchange rate speculation. We also round up costs and round down returns this provides a worst case scenario.

For starters we have 100,000 500gh/s units =5ph/s added to our current hash rate we can round that up to 6ph/s from memory the current hash rate was above 500th/s?

Can someone calculate expected difficulty at 6ph/s?


But until we get realistic numbers of ASIC units preordered in the 500gh category this data will also be speculation but what I believe to be solid speculative data. A lot more trustworthy then a lot of the speculation we have been getting / making.

Assuming difficulty is 75,000,000 assuming network hash rate is around 650-750th/s Ill roughly say our hash rate with 6ph will be around 650,000,000-750,000,000 does anyone agree? Around 1,000,000,000 diff this time next year? That will return something like 0.20-0.30 btc a day If I'm not wrong



Please someone add to this or adjust . I want as much input as we can get.


When you use a mining calculator assume electricity costs 0.35 cents per kwh (worst case scenario we pay around this in Australia).


Simply we cannot assume the difficulty will rise at a steady rate , ASIC miners do not go up in hash rate the longer they are plugged in. Difficulty and hash rate is directly manipulated by how much a company can produce and sell ASIC units.

Precisely but 41m a day the difficulty has been the same for 2 weeks it seems to me the sudden burst was due to large deliveries from bfl and a couple other companies I think we're safe for a few weeks more

I used the monarch as it's about the biggest thing out there.  33 million monarch would equal $150 billion.  Even if they came down to $100 that'd be $3.3 billion.  Even at $10 I can't see people investing $330 million in the next year, not to mention the unlikelyhood of $13/TH.

10-14PH looks possible next year, 1.4 to 2.0 billion difficulty.  Anything above that is kinda unrealistic.

It doesn't look that good even if the difficulty only goes linear at 41M daily difficulty rise (15B difficulty at the end of 2014).  With the best case scenario of them shipping out the cards at the end of 2013, they will end up makeing 21 BTC in 2013 and then 3 or 4 more in all of 2015.

I would say these projections are pretty optimistic being that they aren't exponential but linear.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc#gid=8

Basically... 600 is too small for delivery in December (and given BFL's track record, 2013 delivery is laughable)

I don't quibble with your math.  I don't think that 33M Monarchs will be delivered by 1/1/2015.  I would question whether or not ONE Monarch would be delivered by 1/1/2015.

However BFL are not the only ones producing hashing chips.  The hashing algorithm/circuitry is very conducive to massive parallelism, and the design is not all that complicated.  Anyone with access to the tools can create a design, and once you have the GDSII, you can go to just about any fab with it.  The fabs in China are well entrenched at the 28nm node, and will be producing either 20nm or 16nm before long.  I think that we're going to see continued escalation in the mining war, and the PHash/sec milestone is not that far off.  Current growth in the hashing rate has been 17% per 11.4 days so far this year.  If we extend that rate into the future, we'll hit the 1PH/sec milestone in December 2014.

Using these numbers, your $4680 Monarch, if it goes online on 1/1/14, will earn 27.4 BTC before leveling off at < .01 BTC/week in November 2014.  You'll have earned 27 BTC by July, not so much after that.

I'm glad I'm not waiting for a $30K "minirig" to show up.  If it got here today, I'd earn $80K.  If it gets here on December 1st, I'd probably get half my money back.  I'd certainly trade it for 6 or more Monarchs.  I'd be lucky to break even.

I'm still waiting for a single Jally, which might get here by 10/1.  I'll be lucky to break even.

Difficulty will never reach 2.8T by 2015.  1 Petahash will equal 140 million  1000 petahash would then be 140 billion.  You'd need 20,000 petahash hit 2.8T difficulty.  That would equal 33,333,333 Monarchs.

Don't forget to add 10% GST plus Customs duty for processing the paperwork to get the unit into Australia.

Fun with projections: A 100GH/s unit delivered today will never earn beyond $3K in its lifetime.  Given the current exponential growth of difficulty, A 100GH/s unit will earn $3K by Feb 2014, and then earn another $20 by Jan 1, 2015.

A new 600GH unit from BFL, delivered in January (I know, I'm smoking something, but so are they!) will earn $675 in a year.  $665 of that by June 1, 2014.  Not much payback on a $5K "investment."  In 2015, it would not even be earning a penny a week.

Current growth rate (26% per 11 days) puts difficulty at 1B+ on Jan 1, 2014. 
Current growth rate (26% per 11 days) puts difficulty at 2.8T+ on Jan 1, 2015. 

If all the GPU miners in the WORLD shut down tomorrow, it won't affect things much.  What was the total hash rate before the Avalons, and ASIC-miners (and BFL's) started shipping?  It actually looks like the success of BTC mining is also going to be the downfall of BTC mining.  Growth makes mining unprofitable...

PH = Petahash.  1PH = 1,000TH = 1,000,000GH

Maybe the spreadsheet is easier to see...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auya3iRE6az1dDc0UVgwMU52YVpTazVjSHByOGNiWHc#gid=8

The idea is that continuous exponential growth is ridiculous.  In like 3 years the solar system's resources are committed to bitcoin mining.  So... I made a spreadsheet that goes exponential for just the committed hashrates of the announced vendors which puts out about 14PH/s of global hashrate.  Using the current growth rate and mapping it to an exponential is suprisingly close.  Here is the wolfram alpha difficulty data mapped starting in Feb through the next projected retarget (which I undershot by a picking 85M):
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=exponential+fit+%7B%7B13%2C+3651012%7D%2C%7B37%2C+4847647%7D%2C%7B96%2C+11187257%7D%2C+%7B120%2C+15605633%7D%2C%7B156%2C26162876%7D%2C%7B167%2C31256960%7D%2C%7B189%2C50810340%7D%2C%7B200%2C+65750060%7D%2C%7B210%2C85000000%7D%7D

I figure that rate will continue until all the pre-orders are shipped, which puts the global hash rate at 14PH/s in early Feb.  At that point I assume the growth rate will be linear not exponential (i.e. the growth between retargets will be constant rather than increasing... i.e. no longer accelerating in difficulty).  I basically thought that at that point, the rate would "coast" at that linear rate... rather than being pushed.  The curve flattens out with a slope equal to the "exit velocity" of the exponential portion... around 41Million daily difficulty rise.  We are currently at around 1.6M daily difficulty rise, so this linear phase I am "hoping" is only 25-ish times larger than what we are seeing today.

Anyway, if you use the spreadsheet I posted, with these assumptions, put in a delivery date of March, 1st (an optimistic BFL target date), 600 GH performance, and check out the cumulative BTC mining performance it comes out to 12 BTC in 2014, and 5BTC in 2015 (though projecting 2014 is fraught enough, 2015 is even more fantasy).

Obviously, this could (and most likely is) complete bullcrap... reality may not be anything like this projection. But modelling is fun, and it puts in high relief delays in delivery are going to shorten these miners shelf lives considerably.  Even the fancy 28nm ones.
Hope that helps.

Edit: some grammar/spelling changes.

what dıd ı just read

My projections of a 41M linear difficulty rise (not exponential!), starting on March 1st with a global hashrate for 20PH/s, the 600GH card will generate 12 BTC (and a few more in all of 2015).  I do assume it will be exponential until early Feb 2014, which brings us to 14PH/s at the beginning of Feb..

I met a guy on the road yesterday offered some magic beans for my bitcoins.  When I put the beans into my profitability calculator it says they should grow up to the giants castle within 3-4 months and I'll probably be able to steal a golden goose (massive ROI!)

You know 6-7 months ago I was contemplating gathering a bunch of old pcs and combining them all the graphic cards and all, second hand pcs. Whatever I could have for my hands on I worked out for $1,000 I could get close to 1ghs which seemed expensive compared to the $300 jally. Probably would have been better of doing that hahaha. Going to your local Internet cafe booking out all the pcs and mining? 30 pcs at $30 an hour for all of them? Lol

Sounds about right. The next few months will easily see 100% difficulty increases.

* BitFury (up to 400 GH/s) systems are now shipping. New orders are $8,000 for Oct delivery.
* KNC is due to ship soon (up to 400 GH/s). New orders are $7,000 for Oct delivery.
* HashFast taped-out (400 GH/s). New order are $5,600 for Oct delivery.

BFL on the other hand misses every date promised. $4680 for 600 GH/s due some time after Feb is way too expensive.

CANT ım overseas all my bankıng shıt ıs at home. plus ı have about 5k ın debt to pay hahaha

I'd buy it !

they are an upstanding company !

get your order in early , if you think about it too long you will miss your chance !

here ıs a claculatıon at 950,000,000 dıffıculty wıth a profıtabılıty declıne of 59% per year over 2 years. at current bıt coın exchange rate (though youd expect ıt to rıse, though you cannot base calculatıons on a hıgher exchange rate) wıth a rounded up 5,000 dollars for the monarch and electrıcıty at 0.55kwh at worst case scenarıo. 



40 bucks a day ıs stıll a good profıt ın my books. yeah ıt wıll take 5 months to break even on ıt but ı stıll belıeve ıts somethıng worth havıng. ıts lıke a car ı spend lıke 200 bucks atleast a week on my car ıts a fuckıng leech to my pocket but ı sure as hell would be worse off wıthout ıt . ı paıd 5k for ıt and ı pay 10k a year just to keep the fucker ınsured, fueled up and for regıstratıon. wıthout ıt ı cant work my job because ım a tradesman ı need to get around to make my money. but sure my return ıs a hell of a lot more then thıs thıng ı make 200 bucks a day at work ım not fussed about makıng a huge profıt from mınıng. but wıthout the ıncentıve of a possıble profıt to me there ıs no poınt buyıng the thıng.

what else do you guys thınk? ı just really want to know how everyone says there wıll be no profıt from buyıng thıs thıng? are they just tryıng to scare people out of buyıng the new asıcs to reduce dıffıculty 

Really? What rate of difficulty increase do you plug in to your calculation? There is enough equipment on pre-order to keep the difficulty going up until the middle of next year.

If you take that into account, the first person to receive a Monarch in the new year will be lucky if their total return from the machine is 25% of the purchase price and that is if they have free electricity.

Yeah we'll when I calculate mining profits I run off a billion difficulty instead of 65,000,000 or 250,000,000 like some people and its still somewhat profitable , I would have definitely bought on the first batch but this is for the second batch. I mean I could buy the bitcoins but where is the fun in that? I already invest in silver bullion.

But I suppose if the price of bitcoin jumps to $500 a coin like some speculate , that is a 5x profit almost.

Instead is spending 5,000 on a monarch I buy something like 45 bitcoin , if the price goes up to 500 it becomes $22,500 which is pretty nifty but it just isn't fun . At a billion difficulty a monarch will produce around the same at current price over the course of a year.


Bitcoin is going to have a blow out before it finally hits big , I'm just buying on that. The price and difficulty will drop for about a year or two. People won't mine as much .

if you're not one of first in line for any next gen mining rigs in pre-order - just forget it..  just get BTC for the money, chances are you'll have a big smile in a year or two instead of getting few gray hairs while waiting, going through manufacturer delays and seeing how quickly new mighty rig becomes worthless.

edit:  if cointerra and hashfast comeout around the same time as monarchs or before... you know..  multiply current difficulty at least by 1000-10000

They can't.

-125% profitability. you are better off using half the money to just buy up coins off someone

Personally..........save your money.Thier track record of delivery on time is a joke.BFL MAY get these out by June or later,IMHO 

Keep watching,there are a few folks bringing product to the table,on time supposedly 

Right now ? Bitfury.In 1-2 months KnC,maybe................

I know that feel I ordered a jally in early April knowing there were delays of at least 4-6 months but I took my chances, 5 months later the order is still processing but it will still make about 0.013 coin a day or so for a few months I guess it's more of a novelty now but I jumped on the train way too late. I am considering buying a monarch for something like 5,000aud after converting from usd. If they can legitimately deliver by late February I will still be happy it doesn't have to make a big profit. But it's more for keeping onto for the long term kind of as a mantelpiece , show off to the ladies when I bring them over for a drink.

I'm betting the difficulty will rocket up again in December-January if they actually deliver the monarchs then. Just assuming there's about 1000-2000 in that batch (this would be very small in comparison to previous batches) network hash rate will jump up by around 1,000,000 gh/s difficulty will go up 1000% and there will e no profit even for the monarchs they will kind of just negate themselves out in a way. Like trying to shove a bunch of pencils through a small drain pipe. Or a bunch or crayons in your mouth. You have room for a couple before it becomes pointless shoving crayons in your mouth. The reality is bitcoin mining is going to implode soon , that is why buying a monarch is good and bad at the same time because one day difficulty is going to go down because bitcoin is going to be thrown into chaos by the difficulty rate and thereof the lack of processing power for the block chain. Either satoshi will adjust the mining to be more feasible (not just the transaction fees) but perhaps once more reduce the block size this will in turn push up value of coin due to low supply . And people will all get down and do the dinosaur.