Profitablity of mining (cloud or rig) virtually zero

hv_

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Quote from: tmfp on March 03, 2016, 04:30:28 AM

Quote from: hv_ on March 03, 2016, 02:26:29 AM

Quote from: Amph on March 03, 2016, 02:20:35 AM

Quote from: hv_ on March 02, 2016, 01:25:32 PM

Good Thread. Im also new bee in mining and try some maths.

Actual, hashrate is about 2000 peta, correct?

A S7 does about 5 tera so entire hashpower could be achieved by about 400 000 S7 correct?

where you see 2k peta? it's 1 exa so 1k peta only, or slightly above that so more like 200k s7, a bit more because one does 4.7T

Thanks, yes but just very roughly to get a bigger scope. This estimate I've done is not completely off.

So the 200k S7 (or some more) might need about 1.5kW * 200k = 300 MW.

That's quite a difference in the bolded part of the quote.
I'm also doing a few calcs here, could you help me try to establish a way to reliably estimate the total hashrate at any given point in time?
How accurate are the Blockchain.info and Bitcoinchain.com pie charts?
If I know the hashrate of a given pool and multiply out their attributed share, by a factor of what can that be out?
Thanks.

Sorry - I just did some top down calcs to see some upper range if you'd just want to buy 50% hashrate by hard having 0% now..

So I also only look at Blockchain.info and yes it is far below 2 yet. But you could extrapolate that by time with a linear function using log scale in y (hashrate).

tmfp

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Quote from: hv_ on March 03, 2016, 02:26:29 AM

Quote from: Amph on March 03, 2016, 02:20:35 AM

Quote from: hv_ on March 02, 2016, 01:25:32 PM

Good Thread. Im also new bee in mining and try some maths.

Actual, hashrate is about 2000 peta, correct?

A S7 does about 5 tera so entire hashpower could be achieved by about 400 000 S7 correct?

where you see 2k peta? it's 1 exa so 1k peta only, or slightly above that so more like 200k s7, a bit more because one does 4.7T

Thanks, yes but just very roughly to get a bigger scope. This estimate I've done is not completely off.

So the 200k S7 (or some more) might need about 1.5kW * 200k = 300 MW.

That's quite a difference in the bolded part of the quote.
I'm also doing a few calcs here, could you help me try to establish a way to reliably estimate the total hashrate at any given point in time?
How accurate are the Blockchain.info and Bitcoinchain.com pie charts?
If I know the hashrate of a given pool and multiply out their attributed share, by a factor of what can that be out?
Thanks.

hv_

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Activity: 2534

Merit: 1055

Clean Code and Scale

Quote from: Amph on March 03, 2016, 02:20:35 AM

Quote from: hv_ on March 02, 2016, 01:25:32 PM

Quote from: tn211 on March 02, 2016, 05:16:39 AM

Quote from: SamMiner on February 22, 2016, 12:18:56 AM

Please someone tell me I'm wrong, but i am a huge supporter or bitcoin and the concept of decentralization and have been doing some research about mining because i want to support this idea but i have not found one method that will yield in positive profits for new miners entering the market right now.

Even the S7 miner ($800 - $1200 USD) will generate 0.5%-0.75% daily ROI yield and this is excluding electricity cost, add the increasing Difficulty to the equation and the fact that Block reward is halving in the summer it is now increasing exponentially in negative profits.

Cloud mining is pretty much the same thing too Maintenance cost of these websites are ridiculous (Hashnest, CEX.io, etc) and if you come across something that brings up your hopes it ends up being a ponzi

am i missing something here, how are miners making there money?

I am happy we have a newbie who actually does some research and not just buys a miner and starts complaining afters.
Cloud mining is not profitable.
Mining can be profitable if you can get bulk prices and have a very low energy cost.

For the rest of us (home miners) it's not profitable.

Good Thread. Im also new bee in mining and try some maths.

Actual, hashrate is about 2000 peta, correct?

A S7 does about 5 tera so entire hashpower could be achieved by about 400 000 S7 correct?

where you see 2k peta? it's 1 exa so 1k peta only, or slightly above that so more like 200k s7, a bit more because one does 4.7T

Thanks, yes but just very roughly to get a bigger scope. This estimate I've done is not completely off.

So the 200k S7 (or some more) might need about 1.5kW * 200k = 300 MW.

Amph

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Quote from: hv_ on March 02, 2016, 01:25:32 PM

Quote from: tn211 on March 02, 2016, 05:16:39 AM

Quote from: SamMiner on February 22, 2016, 12:18:56 AM

Please someone tell me I'm wrong, but i am a huge supporter or bitcoin and the concept of decentralization and have been doing some research about mining because i want to support this idea but i have not found one method that will yield in positive profits for new miners entering the market right now.

Even the S7 miner ($800 - $1200 USD) will generate 0.5%-0.75% daily ROI yield and this is excluding electricity cost, add the increasing Difficulty to the equation and the fact that Block reward is halving in the summer it is now increasing exponentially in negative profits.

Cloud mining is pretty much the same thing too Maintenance cost of these websites are ridiculous (Hashnest, CEX.io, etc) and if you come across something that brings up your hopes it ends up being a ponzi

am i missing something here, how are miners making there money?

I am happy we have a newbie who actually does some research and not just buys a miner and starts complaining afters.
Cloud mining is not profitable.
Mining can be profitable if you can get bulk prices and have a very low energy cost.

For the rest of us (home miners) it's not profitable.

Good Thread. Im also new bee in mining and try some maths.

Actual, hashrate is about 2000 peta, correct?

A S7 does about 5 tera so entire hashpower could be achieved by about 400 000 S7 correct?

where you see 2k peta? it's 1 exa so 1k peta only, or slightly above that so more like 200k s7, a bit more because one does 4.7T

hv_

legendary

Activity: 2534

Merit: 1055

Clean Code and Scale

Quote from: tn211 on March 02, 2016, 05:16:39 AM

Quote from: SamMiner on February 22, 2016, 12:18:56 AM

Please someone tell me I'm wrong, but i am a huge supporter or bitcoin and the concept of decentralization and have been doing some research about mining because i want to support this idea but i have not found one method that will yield in positive profits for new miners entering the market right now.

Even the S7 miner ($800 - $1200 USD) will generate 0.5%-0.75% daily ROI yield and this is excluding electricity cost, add the increasing Difficulty to the equation and the fact that Block reward is halving in the summer it is now increasing exponentially in negative profits.

Cloud mining is pretty much the same thing too Maintenance cost of these websites are ridiculous (Hashnest, CEX.io, etc) and if you come across something that brings up your hopes it ends up being a ponzi

am i missing something here, how are miners making there money?

I am happy we have a newbie who actually does some research and not just buys a miner and starts complaining afters.
Cloud mining is not profitable.
Mining can be profitable if you can get bulk prices and have a very low energy cost.

For the rest of us (home miners) it's not profitable.

Good Thread. Im also new bee in mining and try some maths.

Actual, hashrate is about 2000 peta, correct?

A S7 does about 5 tera so entire hashpower could be achieved by about 400 000 S7 correct?

tn211

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Activity: 778

Merit: 500

Quote from: SamMiner on February 22, 2016, 12:18:56 AM

Please someone tell me I'm wrong, but i am a huge supporter or bitcoin and the concept of decentralization and have been doing some research about mining because i want to support this idea but i have not found one method that will yield in positive profits for new miners entering the market right now.

Even the S7 miner ($800 - $1200 USD) will generate 0.5%-0.75% daily ROI yield and this is excluding electricity cost, add the increasing Difficulty to the equation and the fact that Block reward is halving in the summer it is now increasing exponentially in negative profits.

Cloud mining is pretty much the same thing too Maintenance cost of these websites are ridiculous (Hashnest, CEX.io, etc) and if you come across something that brings up your hopes it ends up being a ponzi

am i missing something here, how are miners making there money?

I am happy we have a newbie who actually does some research and not just buys a miner and starts complaining afters.
Cloud mining is not profitable.
Mining can be profitable if you can get bulk prices and have a very low energy cost.

For the rest of us (home miners) it's not profitable.

mrhelpful

legendary

Activity: 1456

Merit: 1002

Op, just fold on mining in general.

You dont have to do the #`s to see its a losing game for a small timer. Its better to build up a reputation on this forum and actually provide a service and charge for it which you`ll see more btc then mining, which people leave unsaid.

philipma1957

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Quote from: LuckyYOU on February 29, 2016, 04:59:06 AM

Cloud Mining hasn't been profitable in a very long while. I doubt it was ever.. but that's another discussion. That's no news.

But yes due the difficulty increase and the high prices of asics these days, you better out just buying bitcoins directly.

cloud mining is a no go.

mining in house is a maybe under if you are under 10 cents.

the current jump is -2.5%

if we go flat mining in house can work.

look below on:

  April 5 2015 the diff was 49.4
  July 10 2015 the diff was 49.4

that is 96 days zero diff growth

The coin price went from 259 to 314 same time period.

That was a great time slot for mining in house

Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s

LuckyYOU

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Cloud Mining hasn't been profitable in a very long while. I doubt it was ever.. but that's another discussion. That's no news.

But yes due the difficulty increase and the high prices of asics these days, you better out just buying bitcoins directly.

notlist3d

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Quote from: philipma1957 on February 26, 2016, 09:53:43 AM

Well power cost is king.

and miner price is queen.

So I have made some good ways to get cheap power.

I will have access to 14-18 kwatts of dirt cheap power.

So the king I have. But the queen is a real bitch to get a hold of. Can I get a 400 usd s-7 today ? no I can't

can bitmaintech get access to 1000 400 usd s-7's today? yes they can

So even though I can match the power cost I would be lucky to get an s-7 at 700 usd. So they have a huge edge over me.

I think internal mines are kinda the secret high profit thing most companies don't talk about. But it's safe to say all gear manufactures have at least enough to do burn-in's..... and most much much more in internal mines.

One of the few you can read about is SP with them wanting to merge with another company a lot of info is public. It is kinda a lot of junk/pissing match in there. But there is some good info about internal mines if you did in thread.

philipma1957

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'The right to privacy matters'

Well power cost is king.

and miner price is queen.

So I have made some good ways to get cheap power.

I will have access to 14-18 kwatts of dirt cheap power.

So the king I have. But the queen is a real bitch to get a hold of. Can I get a 400 usd s-7 today ? no I can't

can bitmaintech get access to 1000 400 usd s-7's today? yes they can

So even though I can match the power cost I would be lucky to get an s-7 at 700 usd. So they have a huge edge over me.

notlist3d

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Quote from: Qunetick on February 23, 2016, 12:09:52 PM

Quote from: Amph on February 23, 2016, 02:35:29 AM

big farm make money because there is no roi needed for them all their equipment minus the last one have roi'ed already

think about this, when you have 1k asic that roi'ed already you can other 10 and those 10 will roi in no time thanks to the first 1k, and so on

that's the trick that big farm are doing, they can add hash like nothing and roi in a few day, regardless of the actual roi time for that HW

I think for big farmer, when they invest in new miners, they will also consider if it is profitable to mine with that miner.

Yes I'm sure they do ROI math and check profitability. But Amph is right about the "big farm" having a huge advantage. They first get a discount when ordering in huge bulk what price we don't really know.... but if you order thousands of miners you get discounts. And then consider electricity price.

A lot of these big farms biggest factor is electricity price. If you pay only a few cent's it's honestly hard to get loss. It could happen but if you pay a few cent's you likely have quite a while of S7, or A6's bringing in good profits.

Qunetick

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Quote from: Amph on February 23, 2016, 02:35:29 AM

big farm make money because there is no roi needed for them all their equipment minus the last one have roi'ed already

think about this, when you have 1k asic that roi'ed already you can other 10 and those 10 will roi in no time thanks to the first 1k, and so on

that's the trick that big farm are doing, they can add hash like nothing and roi in a few day, regardless of the actual roi time for that HW

I think for big farmer, when they invest in new miners, they will also consider if it is profitable to mine with that miner.

Amph

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big farm make money because there is no roi needed for them all their equipment minus the last one have roi'ed already

think about this, when you have 1k asic that roi'ed already you can add other 10 and those 10 will roi in no time thanks to the first 1k, and so on

that's the trick that big farm are doing, they can add hash like nothing and roi in a few days, regardless of the actual roi time for that HW

alh

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Quote from: Atomicat on February 22, 2016, 06:18:12 AM

Quote from: mwizard on February 22, 2016, 01:43:06 AM

Quote from: SamMiner on February 22, 2016, 12:18:56 AM

am i missing something here, how are miners making there money?

Also when they talk about Bitcoin being a decentralized system they simply mean it is money transfer without a trusted central 3rd party (bank). They don't mean mining needs to be decentralized.

If mining isn't decentralized a few group of people will have the power of controlling which transactions to approve and which not to approve.

Do you think that this kind of manipulation could be done without being detected? If it's detected, then the value of BTC will fall to approximately zero since any hint of tampering, and folks will flee the currency faster than you can imagine.

Bitcoin still relies on TRUST, regardless of all the fancy technical underpinnings. If that goes, then the currency will fail.

SFR10

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Well some are in places that it has close to nothing in terms of electricity cost, some other create their own mining rigs when buying more efficient chips than those offered by manufacturers of mining equipment's and use that to mine. Some also have some sort of contracts that would let them mine on someone else's property for free in exchange for some compensations since some have free electricity either by legal/non legal means. I would advise to wait for the halving to go underway and then buy miners since by then their prices will go significantly down and more efficient chips will surely be introduced to the market.

Atomicat

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Quote from: mwizard on February 22, 2016, 01:43:06 AM

Quote from: SamMiner on February 22, 2016, 12:18:56 AM

am i missing something here, how are miners making there money?

Also when they talk about Bitcoin being a decentralized system they simply mean it is money transfer without a trusted central 3rd party (bank). They don't mean mining needs to be decentralized.

If mining isn't decentralized a few group of people will have the power of controlling which transactions to approve and which not to approve.

mwizard

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Quote from: SamMiner on February 22, 2016, 12:18:56 AM

am i missing something here, how are miners making there money?

The large miners have a number of advantages over you:

1) They are located in areas where electricity costs are under about $0.05 per kWh. Often this is in China or other areas near hydroelectricity plants with cheap/surplus power.

2) They manufacture their own miners, or have direct connections to the manufactures. This means their hardware is far cheaper and more efficient than what you can buy.

Almost all mining is now done by just a handful of companies, in particular Bitfury and BitmainTech.

Cloud miners sell hashing because it is more profitable for them than mining themselves. So you making a profit from buying cloud hashing is unlikely.

In summary any miner you can buy as an individual is unlikely to give an ROI.

Also when they talk about Bitcoin being a decentralized system they simply mean it is money transfer without a trusted central 3rd party (bank). They don't mean mining needs to be decentralized.

alh

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While I haven't tried to verify your specific numbers, I think the overall point you make is pretty accurate.

SamMiner

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Please someone tell me I'm wrong, but i am a huge supporter or bitcoin and the concept of decentralization and have been doing some research about mining because i want to support this idea but i have not found one method that will yield in positive profits for new miners entering the market right now.

Even the S7 miner ($800 - $1200 USD) will generate 0.5%-0.75% daily ROI yield and this is excluding electricity cost, add the increasing Difficulty to the equation and the fact that Block reward is halving in the summer it is now increasing exponentially in negative profits.

Cloud mining is pretty much the same thing too Maintenance cost of these websites are ridiculous (Hashnest, CEX.io, etc) and if you come across something that brings up your hopes it ends up being a ponzi

am i missing something here, how are miners making there money?

Topic: Profitablity of mining (cloud or rig) virtually zero (Read 1488 times)