Topic: Proposal: Trustless No Account Sports Betting Run By Automated Open Source App (Read 2281 times)
April 18, 2014, 10:07:35 AM
Sounds like a good reason to be a customer of this model hahaha
April 18, 2014, 01:09:58 AM
Everyone who bets on the same selection gets the same odds no matter when they bet.
That's true, but the point is that those who place the final bets will have an edge over those who place bets earlier because they will be able to better estimate the final odds and take the bet only when the odds are better than they should or skip it otherwise. As a result, in the long run, they will win it all at the expense of those who bet earlier.
April 17, 2014, 09:37:43 PM
Everyone who bets on the same selection gets the same odds no matter when they bet.
The arbers are exactly what will make the odds in line with market consensus only better because of the lower take.
You will make more money betting against a 1% edge than you would against a 2.5% edge.
However what you say is indeed a problem, not because its correct (its not) but because a lot of people will think it is correct or they don't particularly care but they prefer fixed odds.
The arbers are exactly what will make the odds in line with market consensus only better because of the lower take.
You will make more money betting against a 1% edge than you would against a 2.5% edge.
However what you say is indeed a problem, not because its correct (its not) but because a lot of people will think it is correct or they don't particularly care but they prefer fixed odds.
April 17, 2014, 05:13:07 PM
There is one flaw that might prevent this concept from taking off :
At the beginning, liquidity will be low, and as a result the odds will not be efficient. Those who place the bigger bets will usually end up with much worse odds than they could get in a bookie or betting exchange and those that will bet smaller on the unfavorable side will profit greatly from them.
Sooner or later, arbitrage bettors and bots will kick in right before the start of the event. As a result, the odds will be much more efficient, but it will not solve the problem completely. These last minute bettors will be able to time and size their bets in a way that will favor them by getting above market average odds. Eventually, they will win all the money from those who bet earlier in the dark without any clear estimate or indication of the final odds.
The current model that is applied by bookies and betting exchanges is better because you are getting fixed and efficient odds that are determined based on world wide betting in opposed to betting on just one site. Yes, their fees are higher, but in the long run you will lose more by betting in the dark without knowing the odds to the bots that will place the final bets.
At the beginning, liquidity will be low, and as a result the odds will not be efficient. Those who place the bigger bets will usually end up with much worse odds than they could get in a bookie or betting exchange and those that will bet smaller on the unfavorable side will profit greatly from them.
Sooner or later, arbitrage bettors and bots will kick in right before the start of the event. As a result, the odds will be much more efficient, but it will not solve the problem completely. These last minute bettors will be able to time and size their bets in a way that will favor them by getting above market average odds. Eventually, they will win all the money from those who bet earlier in the dark without any clear estimate or indication of the final odds.
The current model that is applied by bookies and betting exchanges is better because you are getting fixed and efficient odds that are determined based on world wide betting in opposed to betting on just one site. Yes, their fees are higher, but in the long run you will lose more by betting in the dark without knowing the odds to the bots that will place the final bets.
April 17, 2014, 02:30:59 PM
.
Jump to: