Topic: Prospects of bitcoin (Read 194 times)
Your graph has been shared many times around social media. It gets passed around way too often during times of despair like this.
In deed, the emergence of bitcoin and the attendant hypes are a good parameter to agree with your conclusion. It is difficult though but the truth is that bitcoin is still maturing, just as your analysis show.
Thank you for interesting information! But I disagree with the conclusions. Bitcoin is falling more and more. Today, there is a high probability that bitcoin will not stop at the $ 5,000 mark, but will go much lower.
I observed bitcoin experiencing a downward cycle after December 2017 reaching almost US $ 20,000. But it's like other businesses have ups and downs, so the next cycle will definitely go up. So, treating bitcoin is like any other business, doing in-depth analysis including various factors that affect prices up or down. The prospect of bitcoin in my opinion remains good.
I think that prospect of bitcoin is very great because so many people are involved in it. But there is also the possibility that bitcoin will continue to fall, which can not but upset.
the most important thing to have in mind is the fact that this is not something happens once for a new technology which is being adopted all around the world and it is not yet even adopted by 0.5% of the population. in a way you can look at all the 9 years so far as early stages of the rise which we have not even reached the first peak.
and I disagree none of these were hype. it certainly had traces of people getting too excited and buy bitcoin but they weren't the "reason".
the only case where you don't sell ever is when you buy bitcoin to use as a currency.
the first cycle of HYIP
the word is "hype" not HYIP which means high-yield investment program and is a type of Ponzi schemeand I disagree none of these were hype. it certainly had traces of people getting too excited and buy bitcoin but they weren't the "reason".
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First, bitcoin will retain its leadership and no altcoins will be able to move it from the first place.
this is technically a wrong statement. the correct statement would be "...none of the existing altcoins..." not altcoins in general. in the future we may see potentially better cryptocurrencies than bitcoin be created if the altcoin devs stop asking for pump and dumps, premines, ICOs,...Quote
Secondly, the high volatility of the bitcoin price will remain. The reasons are obvious price manipulation by market whales and the widespread introduction of cryptocurrency market regulation.
price volatility is decreasing and it has little to do with whales and manipulation. it is first and foremost because of the small size of the market. and it is decreasing because that size is increasing as the adoption increases.Quote
Third, given the inevitable rise in the price of bitcoin, you never need to sell it at a loss. Even if you bought bitcoin at $ 20,000 for a coin and it falls to $ 5,000 (that is, with a loss of 75%) - still do not sell it.
what you do depends on what your strategy is. if you bought bitcoin to trade it and make profit then not selling while price is dropping means you don't even know what your own strategy is. but if it is a long term investment then it may be OK to not sell although there is still good profit to sell on the peaks and buy back near the bottom.the only case where you don't sell ever is when you buy bitcoin to use as a currency.
In the context of bitcoin's rise in price recently, many forecasters have made pessimistic outlooks on the price of gold in 2018.
The CNBC website said David Stockman, who served as director of the Bureau of Administrative and Budget Management under President Ronald Reagan, and now a Wall Street expert, warned that the virtual money boom would end. catastrophe
"Basically, they are a class of really silly speculators convincing themselves that trees can grow to the sky," Stockman said of Bitcoin investors in an interview with CNBC. "All will burn in a spectacular drop. All the speculators on the show will burn their hands, and they will learn a lesson. "
The expert blamed the US Federal Reserve (FED) and other central banks for indirectly causing a virtual fever. He argues that too much liquidity has been injected into the market after the 2008 global financial crisis. "That is unreasonable and has put the market in a state of hotter weather than ever before," he said. to speak.
Over the past two years, Bitcoin has risen more than 3,000%, sparking a debate on what the real value of the virtual currency is on Wall Street. The prices of other digital currencies such as Litecoin and Ethereum have also increased sharply.
Stockman says he can not offer a price that he deems appropriate for virtual currency. "I can not know. I think the virtual currency may be 2-3 times higher than the current rate, which could also be reduced to zero ... "
Also a pessimist, Bitcoin pessimist, Dennis Gartmann, publisher of the Gartman Letter, said Bitcoin prices could fall to $ 5,000.
"I'm very confident Bitcoin will lose. Bitcoin is one of the most silly ideas I've heard in a long time, "Gartmann said. "In addition to the meaning of blockchain technology, virtual currency makes the 17th century tulip bubble look like a quiet market."
"As Bitcoin prices fall, and it is likely to fall, prices will fall below $ 5,000," Gartman predicts. It is unclear whether Bitcoin prices will drop next week, next 6 months or next year, but that will happen. Then, the money from Bitcoin to gold will return to gold. "
At 13:00 pm on January 2 in Vietnam time, Bitcoin prices on the Coinmarketcap.com website are $ 13,300 / Bitcoin. More than half a month ago, Bitcoin set a record of nearly $ 20,000. Since then, the price of the currency has been falling and fluctuating sharply.
The CNBC website said David Stockman, who served as director of the Bureau of Administrative and Budget Management under President Ronald Reagan, and now a Wall Street expert, warned that the virtual money boom would end. catastrophe
"Basically, they are a class of really silly speculators convincing themselves that trees can grow to the sky," Stockman said of Bitcoin investors in an interview with CNBC. "All will burn in a spectacular drop. All the speculators on the show will burn their hands, and they will learn a lesson. "
The expert blamed the US Federal Reserve (FED) and other central banks for indirectly causing a virtual fever. He argues that too much liquidity has been injected into the market after the 2008 global financial crisis. "That is unreasonable and has put the market in a state of hotter weather than ever before," he said. to speak.
Over the past two years, Bitcoin has risen more than 3,000%, sparking a debate on what the real value of the virtual currency is on Wall Street. The prices of other digital currencies such as Litecoin and Ethereum have also increased sharply.
Stockman says he can not offer a price that he deems appropriate for virtual currency. "I can not know. I think the virtual currency may be 2-3 times higher than the current rate, which could also be reduced to zero ... "
Also a pessimist, Bitcoin pessimist, Dennis Gartmann, publisher of the Gartman Letter, said Bitcoin prices could fall to $ 5,000.
"I'm very confident Bitcoin will lose. Bitcoin is one of the most silly ideas I've heard in a long time, "Gartmann said. "In addition to the meaning of blockchain technology, virtual currency makes the 17th century tulip bubble look like a quiet market."
"As Bitcoin prices fall, and it is likely to fall, prices will fall below $ 5,000," Gartman predicts. It is unclear whether Bitcoin prices will drop next week, next 6 months or next year, but that will happen. Then, the money from Bitcoin to gold will return to gold. "
At 13:00 pm on January 2 in Vietnam time, Bitcoin prices on the Coinmarketcap.com website are $ 13,300 / Bitcoin. More than half a month ago, Bitcoin set a record of nearly $ 20,000. Since then, the price of the currency has been falling and fluctuating sharply.
Prospect of bitcoin, i think it has great prospect because it is appreciating stage by stage because so many people are involved in it. Everything in life is always up and down
Prospects for a new round of bitcoin growth
- Since bitcoin has risen 34% since the beginning of April, it has not improved its 21st position among the top 25 currencies, however, the bitcoin market capitalization remained high at $ 152 billion. before dropping back then.
- Typically, bitcoin will be purchased and then used as a means of trading for other codecs, which may help boost bitcoin prices in the current situation. According to CoinDesk, the price outlook for bitcoin will continue to increase, although it tends to decrease slightly. Even in the short term, the price is expected to test 200 MA of $ 9,737. If the price closes below the 10 day MA, this will signal the inactivity of the price increase.
- Electronic money orders are also the highest since March 2017, accounting for more than 92%, which may be a sign of a strong market.
- At the same time, adoption of virtual currency is starting to increase globally so new growth prospects in both short and medium term of bitcoin are perfectly possible. We can still believe in the stronger development of this currency in the future.
- Since bitcoin has risen 34% since the beginning of April, it has not improved its 21st position among the top 25 currencies, however, the bitcoin market capitalization remained high at $ 152 billion. before dropping back then.
- Typically, bitcoin will be purchased and then used as a means of trading for other codecs, which may help boost bitcoin prices in the current situation. According to CoinDesk, the price outlook for bitcoin will continue to increase, although it tends to decrease slightly. Even in the short term, the price is expected to test 200 MA of $ 9,737. If the price closes below the 10 day MA, this will signal the inactivity of the price increase.
- Electronic money orders are also the highest since March 2017, accounting for more than 92%, which may be a sign of a strong market.
- At the same time, adoption of virtual currency is starting to increase globally so new growth prospects in both short and medium term of bitcoin are perfectly possible. We can still believe in the stronger development of this currency in the future.
Thank you for interesting information! But I disagree with the conclusions. Bitcoin is falling more and more. Today, there is a high probability that bitcoin will not stop at the $ 5,000 mark, but will go much lower.
There is one cool project - HelloGold foundation is heavily vested in blockchain technology and focused on expanding the availability of products that are targeted at helping the underserved and unbanked. By supporting in this project, it is possible to support much more startups that will receive grants from HelloGold foundation for their development. And if you join their channels HelloGold and Airdrops.io on Telegram and Twitter you will receive 150 HGT tokens (~$2 USD).
Anyway, good luck with your investment.
Anyway, good luck with your investment.
There is a deep correction on the cryptocurrency market, which has already reached 70% of the December highs last year. I will try to understand what is the reason for such a drop. The technological development of bitcoin and the change in its price corresponds to Gartner HYIP cycle.
https://image.ibb.co/ibhLSy/7a970a.png
The concept is as follows: each technological innovation in the process of reaching maturity goes through several stages, each of which is characterized by a different degree of interest from society and specialists:
technological trigger — the emergence of innovation, the first publication of new technology;
peak of excessive expectations - people expect from new technology revolutionary properties, technology, due to the novelty, becomes popular and the subject of broad discussion in the community;
getting rid of illusions — reveals the shortcomings of technology, and the loss of novelty does not contribute to enthusiastic publications, the community is disappointed with the new technology;
overcoming of shortcomings - the main shortcomings are eliminated, the interest in technology slowly returns, the technology begins to be implemented in commercial projects;
plateau of productivity — onset of maturity of the technology, the community perceives technology as a given, recognizing its advantages and limitations.
Since its launch in 2010, bitcoin has experienced four major HYIP cycles. Looking back, you can accurately determine the price ranges of each of the previous cycles. It is also possible to qualitatively identify the groups of investors that have been associated with each iteration of previous cycles.
$0-30 (2009-July 2011): the first cycle of HYIP was dominated by cryptographers, computer scientists and cipher banks, who managed to understand the importance of the innovative invention of Satoshi Nakamoto. They established that the bitcoin Protocol has no technical drawbacks.
$30-250 (July 2011-April 2013): the second cycle attracted the attention of both new technology enthusiasts and ideologically motivated investors blinded by the potential of free cash flow.
$250-1100 (April 2013-December 2013): during the third cycle of the HYIP, the market included early private and institutional investors, who were not afraid of complex and risky liquidity channels with which to buy bitcoins.
It is worth noting that the growth of bitcoin value during the above cycles correlates with its liquidity and ease of acquisition for investors. During the first cycle, there were no exchanges. Bitcoins could only be mined or obtained from another miner. During the second cycle, the first exchanges appeared, but their use was complicated by many technical factors. Even in the third cycle of HYIP for a large number of investors remained significant obstacles.
Only by the beginning of the fourth cycle of HYIP in 2016, private investors became relatively easy to buy bitcoins and ensure the safety of funds.
$1100 — 20000 (2014 — December 2018): market key players at this stage represented the "early majority" of private and institutional investors.
The final cycle of the HYIP will begin at the moment when the states begin to accumulate bitcoins in their own reserves of foreign currency. The market capitalization of bitcoin is still too small to be considered a suitable asset for this purpose. The emergence of the first state to officially add bitcoin to its own reserves is likely to encourage other countries to do the same. Thus, in accordance with this model, bitcoin is waiting for a few more cycles of HYIP with rapid ups and downs. Now we are close to the bottom of the current correction. The result will be price stabilization, reduced volatility and legislative regulation of cryptocurrencies, which is at odds with their original idea, but still inevitable. For such an outcome, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market should be comparable to the capitalization of the gold market ($8.7 trillion).
Main conclusions.
First, bitcoin will retain its leadership and no altcoins will be able to move it from the first place.
Secondly, the high volatility of the bitcoin price will remain. The reasons are obvious price manipulation by market whales and the widespread introduction of cryptocurrency market regulation.
Third, given the inevitable rise in the price of bitcoin, you never need to sell it at a loss. Even if you bought bitcoin at $ 20,000 for a coin and it falls to $ 5,000 (that is, with a loss of 75%) - still do not sell it.
Fourth, to make it easier to follow the previous conclusion, never buy bitcoin with borrowed money. Do not take loans from banks to buy bitcoin. Finally, always remember the words of the legendary investor Warren Buffett: "Successful investment requires time, discipline and patience. No matter how talented or diligent you are, some things just take time: a baby won't be born in one month, even if nine women get pregnant at once."
https://image.ibb.co/ibhLSy/7a970a.png
The concept is as follows: each technological innovation in the process of reaching maturity goes through several stages, each of which is characterized by a different degree of interest from society and specialists:
technological trigger — the emergence of innovation, the first publication of new technology;
peak of excessive expectations - people expect from new technology revolutionary properties, technology, due to the novelty, becomes popular and the subject of broad discussion in the community;
getting rid of illusions — reveals the shortcomings of technology, and the loss of novelty does not contribute to enthusiastic publications, the community is disappointed with the new technology;
overcoming of shortcomings - the main shortcomings are eliminated, the interest in technology slowly returns, the technology begins to be implemented in commercial projects;
plateau of productivity — onset of maturity of the technology, the community perceives technology as a given, recognizing its advantages and limitations.
Since its launch in 2010, bitcoin has experienced four major HYIP cycles. Looking back, you can accurately determine the price ranges of each of the previous cycles. It is also possible to qualitatively identify the groups of investors that have been associated with each iteration of previous cycles.
$0-30 (2009-July 2011): the first cycle of HYIP was dominated by cryptographers, computer scientists and cipher banks, who managed to understand the importance of the innovative invention of Satoshi Nakamoto. They established that the bitcoin Protocol has no technical drawbacks.
$30-250 (July 2011-April 2013): the second cycle attracted the attention of both new technology enthusiasts and ideologically motivated investors blinded by the potential of free cash flow.
$250-1100 (April 2013-December 2013): during the third cycle of the HYIP, the market included early private and institutional investors, who were not afraid of complex and risky liquidity channels with which to buy bitcoins.
It is worth noting that the growth of bitcoin value during the above cycles correlates with its liquidity and ease of acquisition for investors. During the first cycle, there were no exchanges. Bitcoins could only be mined or obtained from another miner. During the second cycle, the first exchanges appeared, but their use was complicated by many technical factors. Even in the third cycle of HYIP for a large number of investors remained significant obstacles.
Only by the beginning of the fourth cycle of HYIP in 2016, private investors became relatively easy to buy bitcoins and ensure the safety of funds.
$1100 — 20000 (2014 — December 2018): market key players at this stage represented the "early majority" of private and institutional investors.
The final cycle of the HYIP will begin at the moment when the states begin to accumulate bitcoins in their own reserves of foreign currency. The market capitalization of bitcoin is still too small to be considered a suitable asset for this purpose. The emergence of the first state to officially add bitcoin to its own reserves is likely to encourage other countries to do the same. Thus, in accordance with this model, bitcoin is waiting for a few more cycles of HYIP with rapid ups and downs. Now we are close to the bottom of the current correction. The result will be price stabilization, reduced volatility and legislative regulation of cryptocurrencies, which is at odds with their original idea, but still inevitable. For such an outcome, the capitalization of the cryptocurrency market should be comparable to the capitalization of the gold market ($8.7 trillion).
Main conclusions.
First, bitcoin will retain its leadership and no altcoins will be able to move it from the first place.
Secondly, the high volatility of the bitcoin price will remain. The reasons are obvious price manipulation by market whales and the widespread introduction of cryptocurrency market regulation.
Third, given the inevitable rise in the price of bitcoin, you never need to sell it at a loss. Even if you bought bitcoin at $ 20,000 for a coin and it falls to $ 5,000 (that is, with a loss of 75%) - still do not sell it.
Fourth, to make it easier to follow the previous conclusion, never buy bitcoin with borrowed money. Do not take loans from banks to buy bitcoin. Finally, always remember the words of the legendary investor Warren Buffett: "Successful investment requires time, discipline and patience. No matter how talented or diligent you are, some things just take time: a baby won't be born in one month, even if nine women get pregnant at once."
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