Topic: PSA: Do NOT buy Bitfury BF1 USB Miner - It will not ROI. (Read 5249 times)

It's clear from the many many threads on here that the 'consumers/miners' are incapable of doing the profitability calculations for miners, are under-estimating diff increases or are getting their miners later than expected and for one or all of these reasons are therefore buying miners at unprofitable prices. They may *intend* to make money but they are making purchases which will make a loss. They are the loser, the seller of the miner wins. Yet you say the sellers are out of their minds?

You are viewing Bitcoin miners as "consumers," when infact they are miners (laboring to make a profit). Sorry, but I am not buying an ASIC miner for the bragging rights, and I'm sure 99% of other people buying ASIC's ARE doing it to make money.



ASIC manufacturers are hanging themselves by charging too much for their hardware. They are stunting their future growth by alienating their core market.

Everyone in the supply chain is making profit. The end person isn't though, because they are the consumer.

Why are ASIC manufacturers out of their minds?

BufferOverflow, that is exactly my point!

The minute a business to business model fails to offer the BUYER a PROFIT, that business is finished!



Anyone in the business world knows that!


I am not going to purchase appliances to sell in my appliance store if all the manufacturers of Dishwashers and Refrigerators don't want to sell it to me at the wholesale price!




Manufacturer ---> Distributor ----> Seller
Along the way, the price roughly doubles, as it goes from manufacturer to distributor, to the store (seller). This ensures everyone involved in the process makes a profit.



ASIC manufacturers are out of their minds!!! 

That's because ASICs aren't designed for the end user to profit.
The one and only reason they exist, is to profit the manufacture. Nothing else.

If you read the countless threads on here, many people, not just myself, see a ridiculous trend of disappearing ROI.

The question now becomes, not WHEN will you hit ROI, but IF you will hit ROI on new ASIC equipment.

Now, that being said, I do have a hinkering to purchase shares in a GB (Group Buy) on a CoinTerra machine, but I do have a gut feeling about that specific machine and the manufacturing company following through and sticking to release dates.

Prove me wrong, brothers, prove me wrong.

Yes, the global bitcoin hash rate is now zero.

*facepalm*

Bitcoin mining is far from dead.  Bitcoin profitability is in the toilet, but hey, it started out that way.

The get rich quick seekers will soon sell off their mining equipment to the altruistic who will keep the network alive.  Look at the people still mining DEVcoin.

+1
Wonderfully accurate and graphically (imaginable) pleasing example.

Nope. Fiat conversion rates are irrelevant to ROI. Doesn't matter if you use yen, euros, pounds or dollars.

Example:

- Current price of 1 BTC is $100.
- You spend $100 to buy a miner that will only ever return 0.4BTC to you.
- Regardless of what the price in the future is, you have lost 0.6BTC.
- Guess who has the other 0.6BTC? The ASIC manufacturer has it. And they are laughing all the way to the bank because you bought $100 (1BTC) worth of their hardware to get back 0.4BTC, when you should have just kept the 1BTC.

If you disagree with this, feel free to send me $140 right now. This is the current price of 1 BTC.

I will send you 0.4BTC back -- bad deal you say? well dont worry! -- when the prices rises you will ROI.

I will do this all day for you. Think about how silly this is for you. Then realize that buying mining hardware is the same thing.

Then just buy some BTC directly. You'll make more profit faster that way.

All this "It'll never give you ROI" bullshit makes the huge assumption that BTC will remain around the $120 mark.

If BTC suddenly goes up to $500, the ROI goalposts move significantly.

Looks like Barntech may end up doing another batch of miners... https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.3139726

Maybe there will be even more competition in the small mining rig category.

It's certainly not dead, it's alive and kicking like never before, it's just most miners are clueless as to the economics of their rigs.

How many hundreds of articles do we need to see showing that the math just doesn't make sense.

Bitcoin mining, in it's current form is DEAD! BTC

$110+ per GH/s is bad value, even the BFL products from April were $50 per GH/s or less. The developers of the thumb would have known this in advance before they started the project.  The current market expects $20-25 per GH/s to break even.

What people forget is that Bitfury 55nm chip based miners have to get a positive ROI within 6mths or they will start making a loss at current BTC prices, the cost of electricity will be higher than the BTC they produce.

Punching the numbers into the http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/ calculator tells me at 2.1BTC the unit will make a loss of around $160, which is more than half it's purchase price. In order to make a profit BTC/USD would have to rise to over $300. In which case it would be better to just hold onto your 2.1BTC

The unit which costs you 2.1BTC will only return 1BTC before it can't cover the electricity price, therefore it should be priced at 1BTC or less.

Why not?  There's multiple BFL hate threads mainly due to the fact RoI is vanishing.  People keep saying if BFL had shipped on time and made mining unprofitable that they would be criminal for doing so.  Yet now we got to just get over it? 

Best thing to do is wait it out until difficulty starts to plateau then you will have a better idea what can make a ROI. By then who knows what will be profitable especially with all these 400GH/s machines or more coming out.

We talk about a positive ROI here, it's assumed people understand this without it having to be spelled out each time.

I don't know why people forget that bitcoin mining is a very risky venture! Especially with asics that will be worthless in a few months. The currently rising difficulty is almost too much to deal with, before pricing in expensive asics.

Finally someone understands that returns have to be adjusted for risk!

ROI can be used in the context your used OR in the context everyone else is using, including me.

Saying, 12 months to get ROI, is short for saying, it will take me 12 months to get 100% ROI.
You can focus on symantics, I'll focus on the big picture

Are these actually up for sale with delivery right now? Or is this talking about pre orders?

idi0ts who part their hard earned money/btc for Bitfury BF1 USB Miner will soon get hemorROIdes from receiving ass-pounding.

Thank you for warning

My attempt to find a piece of existing! (not "will be available in N months") hardware/chip, that can keep up with current rise in difficulty has failed. I used http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/
Because of huge risk and 0 liquidity and loss of value involved with mining equipment, I like to see at least 30% ROI in 6 months. (did you see, how I used ROI!)


Now, this funny use of ROI.

LOL, "12 months for ROI" ummm. what? "It will not ROI"? Really? WTF that even means?

How about "12 months for USD"? Sounds idiotic? How about "It will not euro"?  LOL
This is not how ROI is used. ROI is metric. You need a number like 10% or 50% or 10 BTC etc.


You do not say "I have ROI in 12 months", you say "I break even in 12 months".
"I had 12% ROI in 1 months" is fine but "I had ROI in 1 month"

What kind of investors would they be? Foolish investors? They might be happier investing in CD's at the bank and getting 2-3%.

Anyway you cut it, 12 months for ROI is stupid. At least with CD's you have your principle at the end. With mining, your principle (the hardware) slowly disappears as time goes on and difficulty increases. At the end of 12 months, your principle is gone!


EXPLAIN HOW THAT IS REASONABLE?! 

Sorry, Bitcoin mining is a queen's race. People are not good at spotting that.

Human nature.

C

I'm serious: One way to fix the whole ROI thing is to use the miners for extra work loads that can generate profit.

Like water heating. So who is going to take an old copper hot water solar panel, affix 100 block erupters, and sell it to someone to use to heat their household water and mine bitcoins in the background?

Bitcoin space heaters? How about a Bitcoin oven for the kitchen?

C

What he meant to say is that 12 months for ROI, risk-adjusted for difficulty increases, is NOT reasonable.

 Traditional investors would disagree with you.

Stop the madness people!

If you stop buying hardware with unreasonable ROI, manufacturers will be forced to lower their unreasonable pricing.

12 months + for ROI is NOT reasonable!

You do know that the hardware is basically trash after that time, right? And this won't be an easy resell like GPU's since these are one-purpose miners.




They will only price hardware at the price the market will bare, and right now, a lot of you are basically bending over saying "I'll pay whatever you want as long as it has ASIC chips! No matter if it might not / may barely break even!"

Enough! 

I sort of welcome good flame threads don't you? This one not sure where it is going considering the conversation here was already happening in the sales thread... I wonder why anyone would want to distract people away from there?

Exactly.  ASIC Mining has been a fiasco ever since Avalon Batch #2 was delayed.
- BFL,
- Avalon Chip orders & Batch #3.
- Friedcat/AM Blades & USB Eruptors.

Millions of dollars have been lost by consumers to these companies.  It is a complete fiasco. I am doing the entire community a service for calling out overpriced hardware.

- I am helping consumers from losing large amounts of money
- I am helping companies from being sued by consumers who are pissed about losing large amounts of money
- I am helping companies price their products accordingly so that they can create a healthy bitcoin economy.

I now urge Big Picture Mining to post a PSA to all other contract manufacturer who are buying BitFury chips that they are totally overpriced and not to buy them.

We have to go all the way up the foodchain to the chip manufacturers if we want to continue to have decentralized mining.  Otherwise no consumers will ever buy hardware again, and mining will be centralized in the hands of a few manufacturers.

Want to do the right thing for Bitcoin and to keep the network safe? Then say no to overpriced hardware and spread the word.

It isn't their fault that mining is currently unprofitable unless you throw down a big heap of investment capital up front. The units cost what they cost to produce, end of story. If you don't like it then don't buy any. There is no need for a flame thread because you can't comprehend this.

More like, only buy these if you want a guaranteed loss!

You have faith...

I don't think any product will achieve a lot more than break-even. It's quite the opposite, we have to hope it will break-even ever.
Why? -> No manufactor will sell any kind of money printing machine if they expects more gain from using themselve. Their selling price is what they expect to mine with + a bit more.

Bitfury delivered more or less in time but they are quite the same! We are just lucky we got 2 h-boards instead of 1 because of their failure. If we got just one single h-board (25 GH/s) nobody will have a chance to achieve break-even ever.
There are 2 winners only: manufactors and resellers

Why don't you let people do what they want with their money? If they have more than 18 or 21 years everyone is free to take their own decisions as they wish

One can always solo mine and hope that variance is to your benefit.  Though I think most folks lack the patience to wait months for a block.

I'm not even sure the 400 GH October BitFury units will ever ROI in BTC at 20$/GH if they don't ship until late October. There seem to be very few ASICs mining purchases right now that look reasonable.

This isn't about a great product. This is about money. If Big Picture Mining is telling the truth -- that they paid $130 per chip, it means that after manufacturing costs they are probably at $150.  (If you look at the average bitcoin exchange rate over the last little while, we can ballpark that these cost around 1.0-1.5 BTC to make... Lets say 1.0 on the low side to be very conservative.)

From a business standpoint things aren't looking good -- The manufacturer paid more to make these then they will ever get back mining from them. They will likely return 0.85BTC or less in their lifetime.

The only chance the manufacturer has to make money, is to start selling inventory very quickly and get rid of hardware that is quickly depreciating with each difficulty jump.  If they price at 2.5 BTC, they will get hundreds of people posting "LOL, overpriced." and they will sell 0 units.

If they price appropriately, then they might have a chance to get rid of inventory that has already taken at a loss and has to be written down.

I urge the manufacturer to consider dropping the price to prevent a loss.  Shipping a bunch of product at the right price will also be good PR for them, if they deliver on time they will get a large support base of customers.

P.S.  My consulting services are available to all other manufacturers who are thinking about selling hardware.

The Grammar Nazi +1. LOL.

ROI =/= break even point.

I'm sure ROI is the most commonly misused phrase in the mining sub forum.

There is probably a lot of truth to that, ASICs are not looking profitable atm. unless you can get them for about $20/GH/s or less delivered in the next month or two. The net hash got very close to 1 PH/s this week, probably pass it in the next peak.

This seems like a pretty unfair topic. I know you are just trying to warn potential buyers who haven't done their homework, but really...

"Do NOT buy any ASIC miner if you are looking for a guaranteed ROI" - FTFY

It is actually. Return On Investment and Return is a verb.

ROI is not a verb  

Always a silver lining.

This "backlash" is clearly being managed from some sort of SHADY HQ... in the middle of some flat part of the planet.

Looks like you guys didn't do enough math when purchasing from bitfury -- you overpaid for chips.  Even at $130 just for the chips, they will never ROI

http://www.btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=86933017.771194&dcosts=320&diff_mincrease=25&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=2500&diff_mincreasedecrease=3&btcusd=127.38&dpowcon=5&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.15&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=0&action=calc

Better plug them all in ASAP and mine with them as fast as you can.  You should also consider lowering the price to 1BTC now , because you will be stuck with useless hardware that will never ROI in a few months and then they'll be worth 0.1BTC...... get rid of this useless inventory asap.

I'm doing you and buyers a favor with this post... change the price to a reasonable amount where there might be even a small possibility of ROI for buyers, and get rid of some of your inventory at the same time.  Inventory will kill you in this game.

Sorry,... I've seen too many people lose money by buying friedcats 10Gh Blades, and USB eruptors without realizing they will never ROI.

This is their first batch, so give them a break. No-one is forcing you to buy these.

They have a great product, so I am hopeful that future batches will be more competitive from a price standpoint.

It's not so much that it won't ROI, it's just not a good hardware deal, I can get 6 block erupter sticks and a USB hub to suit for half the price they are asking!

That's an awful lot more hardware value than just one thumb at 2.1BTC+

The Bitfury chips are vastly more efficient than the BE chips so there is a power saving to be made, that's about it.

I wish I could laugh all the way to the bank.

Again do your math and decide no one is forcing anyone to buy the RedFury. We stated our price we are happy to sell we are happy to mine either way the product is available if you want it. No one in the COOP is trying to teabag you on prices we won't be making a huge amount on these miners given the initial investments we have made. If you have any concerns feel free to post them in the thread we started on sales. We have openly discussed our cost per unit and explained our prices.

I find this sort of post par for the course when people do not bother to read.

They are selling for 2.1 to 2.5 BTC each.

They will not ever make back more then 1 BTC.

Bitfury will laugh all the way to the bank at all the idiots why buy this.

http://www.btcinvest.net/bitcoin-mining-profit-calculator.php?diff=86933017.771194&dcosts=320&diff_mincrease=25&blpbtc=25&dhsmhs=2500&diff_mincreasedecrease=3&btcusd=127.38&dpowcon=5&btcusd_mincrease=1&pcost=0.15&calcweeks=32&dleadtime=0&action=calc