Topic: Putin in the multicolored Syrian revolution (Read 132 times)
Please note that Trump is already hinting to Putin that he should not dig in and back off.
There are a lot of wars, when is peace?
Wars will end when the Evil Empire and similar state entities disappear.
There are a lot of wars, when is peace?
My assumptions were confirmed. Assad and his family ended up in Moscow and joined Yanukovych. I believe Bidzina Ivanishvili will be the third.
Apparently the prime minister of Syria is working with the incoming government. They appartently do not want to make immediate radical changes to government nor seem to be harrasing minorities.
This may change in the future, but for now they understand the fragility of their position and do not seem to want to create enemies straight aways. With some luck, the most radical ideas will not be implemented by force - again, at least not for now.
BTW given that Al Asad flew, you can now close the thread because there is no more "Putin in Syria".
The Russians' flight from Syria, unlike the Americans' departure from Afghanistan, looks more like panic. They are abandoning tanks, planes, missiles, shells and other military equipment, which is falling into the hands of the opposition. After Assad fled to Moscow, Damascus was surrendered without a fight.
My assumptions were confirmed. Assad and his family ended up in Moscow and joined Yanukovych. I believe Bidzina Ivanishvili will be the third.
Apparently the prime minister of Syria is working with the incoming government. They appartently do not want to make immediate radical changes to government nor seem to be harrasing minorities.
This may change in the future, but for now they understand the fragility of their position and do not seem to want to create enemies straight aways. With some luck, the most radical ideas will not be implemented by force - again, at least not for now.
BTW given that Al Asad flew, you can now close the thread because there is no more "Putin in Syria".
My assumptions were confirmed. Assad and his family ended up in Moscow and joined Yanukovych. I believe Bidzina Ivanishvili will be the third.
Assad's army is going over to the rebels en masse. Now Syria will have to be divided into three parts: Arab - Syria itself, Turkish and Kurdish. It must be said that clashes between the Turks and the Kurds have already begun.
Ruzzia has withdrawn the fleet from the most relevan port in the region. The rebel forces are now also fighting among themselves (as you say, this is all against all), but also the advances are quick, seems like Al Asad army just left pretty much on a rush.
My thinking is that Ruzzia's support flaltered. They had to choose between Ukraine and Syria and went for Ukraine. I take is as a sign that in the future they may have to stop the level of offensive pressure in Ukraine.
My thinking is that Ruzzia's support flaltered. They had to choose between Ukraine and Syria and went for Ukraine. I take is as a sign that in the future they may have to stop the level of offensive pressure in Ukraine.
Assad's army is abandoning its positions, retreating to Homs, and the Russian military is fleeing to Tartus, preparing for evacuation. It looks like the Turks and Kurds will grab part of Syrian territory, and the Kurds may create their own state with American support. Thus, the country artificially created after the First World War by France and England will change its borders, and Iran will lose its influence in Lebanon. Putin's world order is crumbling before our eyes, and the Russian Empire is approaching collapse.
Erdogan gave Putin a good thrashing in Syria. Moscow can’t help the Russian military contingent in Syria. Neither transport planes nor ships will be able to do this, because Turkey has closed the Bosphorus and its airspace to Russia. As a result of the rapid advance of opposition forces with the support of Turkey, the Russians have lost most of their military equipment, including aircraft. The countdown to take Damascus is literally days away.
Putin has no chance to save Assad today. Opposition forces are rapidly advancing towards Damascus. Assad's army has practically collapsed, its soldiers are leaving the front. The clock is ticking. Damascus is doomed.
Alik Bakhshi
Putin in the multicolored Syrian revolution
The Arab revolution that reached Syria was the detonator of a mine laid by France and Great Britain after the First World War. Then, like a pack of wolves, the victorious countries tore apart the defeated body of the Ottoman Empire, dividing the territories among themselves, without taking into account the ethnic and religious composition of the population. As a result, the Middle East was divided into many Arab states, two of which, namely Syria and Iraq, found themselves in the most difficult situation. The fact is that three large, completely different ethnic groups of the population fell within the borders of these countries, artificially created by the colonial powers: Arabs, Kurds and Turks or Turkmens, which is the same thing. Naturally, and also taking into account the historical traditions and mentality of the peoples of the East, these states could function only under dictatorship. Only dictatorial regimes could exercise power and keep such a motley population in obedience. In general, this was the case until America in 2003, due to the stupidity of Bush Jr., under a far-fetched pretext, overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime, after which Iraq plunged into the bloody slaughter of an endless civil war (1). Attempts to establish Democracy in Iraq have completely failed, because it is impossible to bring democratic values on the bayonets of marines to a people who, for objective reasons, are not ready to accept them. It is the same as bringing a roast pig to a Jewish house as a gift.
A somewhat different picture is observed in Syria, where part of the most advanced population itself, without external interference, rebelled against the dictator Bashar Assad, forming an armed opposition - the Free Syrian Army. Against the background of the civil war that began, significantly weakening the central government, new interested players emerged from various ethnic and religious groups of the population of Syria, who also began to defend their interests with the help of weapons. Soon, on the heterogeneous political field of Syria, a powerful religious movement emerged, sweeping the Middle East, with the goal of creating an Islamic Arab state on a vast territory, including Syria and Iraq, similar to the Islamic state in Iran, a kind of new Caliphate – ISIS. The brutal executions of prisoners, demonstrated by ISIS members to intimidate their opponents, alarmed the world community. ISIS was outlawed, the need to fight this extremist movement became obvious. Assad did not have the strength to resist the chaos engulfing his country, cases of officer desertion in his army became more frequent, and, if we take into account the fact that the democratic countries of the West are unequivocally opposed to his bloody regime, then its fall was predetermined. However, Russia's military intervention on Assad's side saved the regime from inevitable defeat. It should be noted that Moscow has always supported totalitarian regimes as close in spirit to it. So the Putin regime hastened to come to the aid of the Syrian dictator, temporarily postponing the end of his rule.
President Putin, who decided to transfer his experience as a St. Petersburg hooligan to the field of international relations, and, thereby violating the established post-war world order (2), clearly crossed the line. Following in Hitler's footsteps in his revanchist aspirations, Putin inevitably began to repeat his mistakes. Having secretly set himself the goal of recreating the Russian Empire within the borders of the former USSR, the Russian revanchist, like Hitler once, overestimated his strength.
Eastern wisdom says: a wise man makes no mistakes, a smart man makes mistakes only once, and a fool is distinguished by his unwavering persistence in making mistakes. After two major mistakes related to Russia's aggression against Georgia and Ukraine, Putin got involved in the Syrian tangle, hoping to get at least some strategic dividends in exchange for those lost by Moscow under Gorbachev.
It is hard to imagine that Russia's intervention in Syria is explained only by Putin's intention to save Bashar al-Assad from popular wrath and prevent a repeat of the massacre that happened to Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. In my opinion, Putin is pursuing several goals in Syria. One of them is the creation of a permanent Russian naval base in the Mediterranean, not so much to counter the US Sixth Fleet, but to demonstrate Russia's military presence and restore its military power. In addition, a military base in another country is a lever for pursuing one's policy, which is well demonstrated in the case of the Baltic States, which allowed the Russians to create military bases before World War II, after which they were all immediately annexed. And a very recent example is Ukraine, which leased a naval base in Sevastopol to Russia, for which it paid with the annexation of Crimea. It must be said that Moscow, even during the Soviet era, courted dictators in Damascus and Baghdad, but Saddam Hussein was unlucky enough to be hanged, while Bashar al-Assad finally fell into the Kremlin's net. Undoubtedly, by sending Russian soldiers to Syria, Putin satisfied the imperial mentality of the Russian people, who suffered somewhat after the partial collapse of the empire. It is also possible that Putin's military adventure in Syria, according to his plan, should dilute the world community's attention to the annexation of Crimea and the separation of the eastern part of Ukraine. And yet, I think the main reason for the intervention lies in the economic plane.
Russia, being the world's gas station, seeks to maintain a monopoly on the supply of hydrocarbons to the EU as the only revenue source for the state budget, and in this regard, destabilization of the situation in the Middle East seems favorable to Putin. The fact is that in the future, gas pipelines to Europe are planned to be laid through countries such as Turkey, Syria and Iraq, one from Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran through Turkey and the second from Qatar through the territory of Syria and Turkey. The implementation of these projects, of course, and Putin understands this well, will put an end to Russia's monopoly on the European gas market. By making Assad his puppet, Putin has a chance to prevent the laying of a gas pipeline through Syria. Putin can also play the Kurdish card, because in any case, gas pipelines from Qatar will run through places with a Kurdish population. As for the other branch of the gas pipeline from the Caspian region, Putin has the Armenian card in his hands with the smoldering Karabakh conflict and there is no doubt that Putin will use any opportunity to prevent the implementation of these projects, which are capable of collapsing the one-sided economy of Russia and leading to an economic situation in which the Soviet Union collapsed. Thus, the presence of Russians in Syria pursues purely Russian interests, the victims of which are the Syrian people. In rescuing the dictator, Russian planes are ironing out first the territory controlled by the opposition Free Syrian Army, and then ISIS, with almost complete impunity.
After the joint efforts of the military coalition led by America managed to defeat ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria, peace, as expected, did not come. The fact is that in order to achieve their goals, the interested parties relied on local forces, supplying them with weapons. Thus, the Americans armed not only the Iraqi government troops to fight ISIS, but also the Kurds, who, taking advantage of the civil war and weakened central government, set the goal of creating a Kurdish state. The latter caused a protest from Turkey and complicated the already strained US-Turkish relations due to America's failure to extradite Fethullah Gulen, whom the Turks consider the ideological leader of the failed coup in 2016. (3) True, the Americans promised the Turks to stop supplying weapons to the Kurds after the victory over ISIS. Turkey, in turn, provides assistance to the Syrian opposition and the local Turkic population, oppressed by both government troops and Kurdish militants. After the defeat of ISIS, Russia is fighting on Assad's side mainly against the democratic opposition. Iran is sending soldiers to help Assad and the anti-Israeli Hezbollah. And the main thing in all this diversity of political goals is that the weapons supplied to Syria have not disappeared anywhere and no one is going to hand them over after the defeat of ISIS due to the mutual distrust of all interested parties. Hence the problem of refugees.
The large number of opposing sides with mutually exclusive plans for the future also excludes the possibility of restoring statehood in its previous form. Moscow's hope for an end to the civil war in Syria with the defeat of ISIS is illusory. The news that government troops, with the support of Russia, control almost 89% of Syria's territory turned out to be not only premature, but also very far from reality. The mortar shelling of the Russian embassy in Damascus proves the opposite.
In fact, everything is just beginning.
On Russian radio, in the program "Full Contact" of the well-known liar and asshole Vladimir Solovyov, Israeli journalist Yakov Kedmi, a former Mossad employee, categorically stated that the Russian Su-24 bomber shot down by the Turks is nothing more than a provocation. Commenting on the incident, Kedmi said that the Russian plane did not threaten Turkey, moreover, it turned out that it was not heading towards Turkey at all, and the Turks simply used the pretext to commit a provocation.
Then a completely natural question arises: what is the purpose of the provocation in this case? What did the Turks want to provoke Russia to do? To retaliate, after which World War III would inevitably begin? After all, Turkey is a NATO member. Or in the hope that Russia would impose economic sanctions against Turkey, as in fact happened. But why does Turkey need this? Alas, Kedmi did not bother to explain such an important point. I wonder if a Syrian military plane had flown into Israeli territory, what would have been its fate? I have no doubt that it would have been destroyed immediately. And would this qualify as a provocation by Israel? Kedmi clearly has a problem with logic here. In short, I have not found a reasonable explanation for the provocation on the part of Turkey.
In order to somehow find an answer to the cause of the incident, let us turn to the facts:
On October 3, 2015, the Turkish Foreign Ministry handed the Russian ambassador a note of protest in connection with the fact that a Russian military aircraft violated the country's airspace in the Yayladagi region of Hatay Province. After which the Russian embassy acknowledged the fact of the violation. Literally the next day, on October 4, an unidentified MiG-29 committed a very dangerous act, taking two Turkish F-16 fighters patrolling in the area of the Syrian-Turkish border into the radar. This act is classified as nothing less than hostile. NATO's reaction to this incident was immediate and harsh. Russia was required to stop the incursion of military aircraft into Turkish territory, pointing out the extreme danger of such irresponsible behavior. And so on November 24, an unidentified Su-24 bomber again invaded Turkish airspace. It should be noted that even on the approach to the border, Turkish air defense systems warned the pilot several times about the dangerous flight direction, but the bomber did not change course and entered Turkish airspace, after which it was shot down by a Turkish F-16 fighter.
Turkey twice expressed a note of protest about the violation of Turkish airspace by Russian military aircraft. However, Russia ignored Ankara's signal, brazenly continuing to play with fire. And now, during another violation of the Turkish border, the Russian SU-24 was shot down. Shot down as a military, mind you, not a civilian, aircraft violating the border. If we recall how the Russians mercilessly shot down a civilian Korean Boeing-747 (269 dead), and recently the Malaysian Boeing flight MH-17 (298 dead) over the territory of the Russian-occupied southeast of Ukraine, then in this case a military intruder was shot down and not a fighter, but a bomber that carried a great danger. Russia should have learned a lesson, and it did.
So from whose side was the provocation? I believe there are three possible answers to this question.
The first is pilot error, which is immediately excluded, because with modern means of orientation of a military aircraft in space, the chance of getting lost is negligible, especially in the daytime. Three incidents in a relatively short period of time on the Turkish border after the Russians came to the aid of the Syrian dictator are no longer an accident, but intentional.
The second is a provocation on the part of the Russians. And for what purpose? Was it really to abandon the Turkish Stream gas project, which is more necessary for the catastrophically declining Russian economy than for Turkey, whose economic growth rate is incomparably higher? Or maybe to start a war with Turkey? But there was no war. The war was exchanged for a refusal to buy Turkish tomatoes, thereby depriving their citizens of vegetables.
The third option, at first glance, is demonstrative in nature, namely to show who is the boss in this region. There is no doubt that the invasion of Russian military aircraft into Turkish airspace did not happen without the knowledge of the world-famous political hooligan Putin.
So what was Putin's political plan, harassing Turkey with constant intrusions into its airspace? I think Putin had several goals. First, to force the Turks to take a low profile and keep quiet, like Lebanon and Syria, when Israeli military aircraft appear unhindered in the skies above their territory. Second, to test NATO's reaction, to know in advance how ready NATO is to stand up for Turkey if a military conflict with Turkey occurs in the future, which could lead to a major war. And he tested it - with the life of a pilot.
Having imagined himself the master of the Middle East, Putin twice ignored Turkey's warnings about air border violations and learned a lesson, subsequently taking offense with Turkish tomatoes, which were again allowed to be imported into Russia. And although after this incident Russian bombers no longer fly over the Turkish border, the lesson did not do any good, because the hooligan, considering the incident with Turkey a private matter, decided to test the Americans' strength by sending the Wagner private military company to recapture oil fields in the Euphrates Valley for the Syrian dictator and was wrong again. What came of this venture is well known - the Americans chopped up the Wagnerites like cabbage. Wagner's symphony over dozens of killed Russian mercenaries sounded very convincing, and the Kremlin's silence indicates that Putin has clearly tucked his tail between his legs and it is unlikely that a new attempt will be made in the future to seize the left-bank territory of the Euphrates with its oil wells. This military episode shows, firstly, that America has not abandoned its original policy of supporting the democratic opposition, and secondly, it highlights the fundamental disagreement between Washington and Moscow on the future structure of Syria as a state. The constant threat of a direct military clash of aircraft with serious consequences undoubtedly causes Putin's concerns. Moscow is keeping a low profile, avoiding confrontation. American Tomahawks blew to shreds the airfield from which Assad's aircraft once struck the opposition with chemical weapons.
It must be said that the Americans even went so far as to inform Assad of the upcoming missile strike on military airfields and are striking in the complete silence of the ally who supposedly pledged to protect the dictator. It is unclear why the Russians installed the vaunted S-300, if not to shoot down everything that violates Syrian airspace. By the way, Israeli pilots regularly carry out missile and bomb strikes on Hezbollah from time to time, and they don't give a damn about the presence of Russian troops in Syria.
The Kurds, who have effectively formalized the eastern part of Syria as their future state, are doing the same, regardless of Assad. Now that the problem with ISIS has been solved, nothing prevents the Kurds from pursuing their main goal - creating a Kurdistan on Syrian territory. True, Turkey is against such an outcome, but on the other hand, the Kurds, having found their own state, may calm down and stop terrorizing Turkey. In turn, Assad will not dare to attack the Kurds, who have no goal of overthrowing his government, unlike the Syrian democratic opposition supported by Turkey.
Erdogan, who wanted to overthrow the Assad regime from the very beginning of the revolution, assessing the current situation, undoubtedly understands the danger that the PKK militants pose to the 2.5 million Turks in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. Moreover, as a result of the weakening of Assad's power, almost half of the Syrian-Turkish border is in the hands of the Kurds, which poses a danger to Turkey.
It should be noted that the Russian air force mercilessly bombed Idlib, as an area under the control of the democratic opposition. Incidentally, Russian planes were shot down in those areas. The situation around Afrin in the province of Aleppo was especially difficult, where Kurdish militants were exterminating local Turks, and this despite the fact that a Russian monitoring mission was in Afrin. Erdogan has repeatedly raised the issue of the situation in Afrin, but it seems that he has not found understanding. In this regard, on January 20, 2018, Erdogan was forced to announce the start of the military operation "Olive Branch". As a result, the Turkish army is in the province of Idlib. I would like to note that the famous Russian political scientist Satanovsky, president of the "Institute of the Middle East", who imagined himself an expert on the Middle East, considered Turkey's intervention in Syria unlikely (4) and was very wrong. The emergence of a new player in Syria makes the situation so confusing that one can wait for peace soon for as long as one wants.
As is known, Putin and Assad were ready for a major offensive on the Idlib province controlled by Turkey and the Syrian opposition. Moreover, according to a report from American intelligence, Assad gave the go-ahead for the use of chemical weapons against militants of the democratic opposition, in particular chlorine, which had already been successfully tested during battles in the suburbs of Damascus. The fact is that chlorine gas is heavier than air and penetrates into the basements of city buildings where opposition militants were hiding. Moreover, chlorine easily evaporates after a short time, leaving no traces except corpses. And if it is not identified on site in time, then proving the use of chlorine as a chemical weapon is very problematic. In this regard, Trump loudly declared that he would take retaliatory military action in the event of an attack by government troops on Idlib. His decision was supported by London, Paris and even Berlin. As a result, an armada of warships, including the aircraft carrier Harry Truman, entered the Mediterranean Sea. These forces significantly outnumber the Russian fleet concentrated off the coast of Syria. In such circumstances, for Russia to provide allied obligations to Assad means one thing - to enter into an open military confrontation with the West. As a result, Putin found himself in a serious dilemma: either to tuck his tail between his legs again and remain a bystander to Assad's defeat, or to see the scenario of the Wagner military operation near the Euphrates again, but only on a much larger scale. In both cases, Putin will not escape shame. But here he is saved by the cunning Erdogan, who seemed to be just waiting for the right moment to offer Putin a deal that the latter cannot refuse, because otherwise he could lose everything.
By the way, in order to strengthen the Turkish army in Idlib, already on the eve of negotiations with Putin, Turkey, in anticipation of a military operation, additionally introduces heavy military equipment, including 50 tanks. In short, as a result of difficult negotiations in Sochi in September 2018, which lasted more than 4 hours, Putin, in order to avoid a shameful defeat, refuses to attack Idlib and, contrary to Assad's wishes, accepts Erdogan's proposal to create a 15 km buffer zone free of heavy weapons.
Thus, firstly, Erdogan's plan prevents an open military clash between the American coalition and the Russians in Syria, and secondly, it secures Turkey's control over the Idlib province, thereby correcting the mistakes made by Great Britain and France when dividing the territory of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, which arbitrarily drew borders without taking into account the ethnic composition of the population. In essence, in order to save face, Putin betrayed his ally Assad, paying with part of the Syrian territory.
It is absolutely clear that Syria as a single state can no longer function. The only possible outcome is the disintegration of Syria into several independent countries, taking into account ethnic and religious differences. The Arab revolution in Syria turned out to be multicolored, but, unfortunately, in the absence of pink.
Perhaps, if Assad had surrendered power to the democratic opposition at the very beginning of the political crisis, the disintegration of the country could have been avoided, but Russia's support for the Syrian dictator left no chance to preserve Syria within its former borders.
It seems that Putin's Russia, which is vainly trying to prolong the agony of the bloody regime of Bashar Assad, which is unpopular in the country, is awaiting the same shameful fate that the Soviet Union experienced in Afghanistan on the eve of its disappearance.
1. A camel for the president. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/5271.html
2. Putin and his new world disorder. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/35844.html
3. To the failed military coup in Turkey. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/29886.html
4. https://vpk-news.ru/articles/40255
19.09.18
Putin in the multicolored Syrian revolution
The Arab revolution that reached Syria was the detonator of a mine laid by France and Great Britain after the First World War. Then, like a pack of wolves, the victorious countries tore apart the defeated body of the Ottoman Empire, dividing the territories among themselves, without taking into account the ethnic and religious composition of the population. As a result, the Middle East was divided into many Arab states, two of which, namely Syria and Iraq, found themselves in the most difficult situation. The fact is that three large, completely different ethnic groups of the population fell within the borders of these countries, artificially created by the colonial powers: Arabs, Kurds and Turks or Turkmens, which is the same thing. Naturally, and also taking into account the historical traditions and mentality of the peoples of the East, these states could function only under dictatorship. Only dictatorial regimes could exercise power and keep such a motley population in obedience. In general, this was the case until America in 2003, due to the stupidity of Bush Jr., under a far-fetched pretext, overthrew Saddam Hussein's regime, after which Iraq plunged into the bloody slaughter of an endless civil war (1). Attempts to establish Democracy in Iraq have completely failed, because it is impossible to bring democratic values on the bayonets of marines to a people who, for objective reasons, are not ready to accept them. It is the same as bringing a roast pig to a Jewish house as a gift.
A somewhat different picture is observed in Syria, where part of the most advanced population itself, without external interference, rebelled against the dictator Bashar Assad, forming an armed opposition - the Free Syrian Army. Against the background of the civil war that began, significantly weakening the central government, new interested players emerged from various ethnic and religious groups of the population of Syria, who also began to defend their interests with the help of weapons. Soon, on the heterogeneous political field of Syria, a powerful religious movement emerged, sweeping the Middle East, with the goal of creating an Islamic Arab state on a vast territory, including Syria and Iraq, similar to the Islamic state in Iran, a kind of new Caliphate – ISIS. The brutal executions of prisoners, demonstrated by ISIS members to intimidate their opponents, alarmed the world community. ISIS was outlawed, the need to fight this extremist movement became obvious. Assad did not have the strength to resist the chaos engulfing his country, cases of officer desertion in his army became more frequent, and, if we take into account the fact that the democratic countries of the West are unequivocally opposed to his bloody regime, then its fall was predetermined. However, Russia's military intervention on Assad's side saved the regime from inevitable defeat. It should be noted that Moscow has always supported totalitarian regimes as close in spirit to it. So the Putin regime hastened to come to the aid of the Syrian dictator, temporarily postponing the end of his rule.
President Putin, who decided to transfer his experience as a St. Petersburg hooligan to the field of international relations, and, thereby violating the established post-war world order (2), clearly crossed the line. Following in Hitler's footsteps in his revanchist aspirations, Putin inevitably began to repeat his mistakes. Having secretly set himself the goal of recreating the Russian Empire within the borders of the former USSR, the Russian revanchist, like Hitler once, overestimated his strength.
Eastern wisdom says: a wise man makes no mistakes, a smart man makes mistakes only once, and a fool is distinguished by his unwavering persistence in making mistakes. After two major mistakes related to Russia's aggression against Georgia and Ukraine, Putin got involved in the Syrian tangle, hoping to get at least some strategic dividends in exchange for those lost by Moscow under Gorbachev.
It is hard to imagine that Russia's intervention in Syria is explained only by Putin's intention to save Bashar al-Assad from popular wrath and prevent a repeat of the massacre that happened to Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi. In my opinion, Putin is pursuing several goals in Syria. One of them is the creation of a permanent Russian naval base in the Mediterranean, not so much to counter the US Sixth Fleet, but to demonstrate Russia's military presence and restore its military power. In addition, a military base in another country is a lever for pursuing one's policy, which is well demonstrated in the case of the Baltic States, which allowed the Russians to create military bases before World War II, after which they were all immediately annexed. And a very recent example is Ukraine, which leased a naval base in Sevastopol to Russia, for which it paid with the annexation of Crimea. It must be said that Moscow, even during the Soviet era, courted dictators in Damascus and Baghdad, but Saddam Hussein was unlucky enough to be hanged, while Bashar al-Assad finally fell into the Kremlin's net. Undoubtedly, by sending Russian soldiers to Syria, Putin satisfied the imperial mentality of the Russian people, who suffered somewhat after the partial collapse of the empire. It is also possible that Putin's military adventure in Syria, according to his plan, should dilute the world community's attention to the annexation of Crimea and the separation of the eastern part of Ukraine. And yet, I think the main reason for the intervention lies in the economic plane.
Russia, being the world's gas station, seeks to maintain a monopoly on the supply of hydrocarbons to the EU as the only revenue source for the state budget, and in this regard, destabilization of the situation in the Middle East seems favorable to Putin. The fact is that in the future, gas pipelines to Europe are planned to be laid through countries such as Turkey, Syria and Iraq, one from Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan and Iran through Turkey and the second from Qatar through the territory of Syria and Turkey. The implementation of these projects, of course, and Putin understands this well, will put an end to Russia's monopoly on the European gas market. By making Assad his puppet, Putin has a chance to prevent the laying of a gas pipeline through Syria. Putin can also play the Kurdish card, because in any case, gas pipelines from Qatar will run through places with a Kurdish population. As for the other branch of the gas pipeline from the Caspian region, Putin has the Armenian card in his hands with the smoldering Karabakh conflict and there is no doubt that Putin will use any opportunity to prevent the implementation of these projects, which are capable of collapsing the one-sided economy of Russia and leading to an economic situation in which the Soviet Union collapsed. Thus, the presence of Russians in Syria pursues purely Russian interests, the victims of which are the Syrian people. In rescuing the dictator, Russian planes are ironing out first the territory controlled by the opposition Free Syrian Army, and then ISIS, with almost complete impunity.
After the joint efforts of the military coalition led by America managed to defeat ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria, peace, as expected, did not come. The fact is that in order to achieve their goals, the interested parties relied on local forces, supplying them with weapons. Thus, the Americans armed not only the Iraqi government troops to fight ISIS, but also the Kurds, who, taking advantage of the civil war and weakened central government, set the goal of creating a Kurdish state. The latter caused a protest from Turkey and complicated the already strained US-Turkish relations due to America's failure to extradite Fethullah Gulen, whom the Turks consider the ideological leader of the failed coup in 2016. (3) True, the Americans promised the Turks to stop supplying weapons to the Kurds after the victory over ISIS. Turkey, in turn, provides assistance to the Syrian opposition and the local Turkic population, oppressed by both government troops and Kurdish militants. After the defeat of ISIS, Russia is fighting on Assad's side mainly against the democratic opposition. Iran is sending soldiers to help Assad and the anti-Israeli Hezbollah. And the main thing in all this diversity of political goals is that the weapons supplied to Syria have not disappeared anywhere and no one is going to hand them over after the defeat of ISIS due to the mutual distrust of all interested parties. Hence the problem of refugees.
The large number of opposing sides with mutually exclusive plans for the future also excludes the possibility of restoring statehood in its previous form. Moscow's hope for an end to the civil war in Syria with the defeat of ISIS is illusory. The news that government troops, with the support of Russia, control almost 89% of Syria's territory turned out to be not only premature, but also very far from reality. The mortar shelling of the Russian embassy in Damascus proves the opposite.
In fact, everything is just beginning.
On Russian radio, in the program "Full Contact" of the well-known liar and asshole Vladimir Solovyov, Israeli journalist Yakov Kedmi, a former Mossad employee, categorically stated that the Russian Su-24 bomber shot down by the Turks is nothing more than a provocation. Commenting on the incident, Kedmi said that the Russian plane did not threaten Turkey, moreover, it turned out that it was not heading towards Turkey at all, and the Turks simply used the pretext to commit a provocation.
Then a completely natural question arises: what is the purpose of the provocation in this case? What did the Turks want to provoke Russia to do? To retaliate, after which World War III would inevitably begin? After all, Turkey is a NATO member. Or in the hope that Russia would impose economic sanctions against Turkey, as in fact happened. But why does Turkey need this? Alas, Kedmi did not bother to explain such an important point. I wonder if a Syrian military plane had flown into Israeli territory, what would have been its fate? I have no doubt that it would have been destroyed immediately. And would this qualify as a provocation by Israel? Kedmi clearly has a problem with logic here. In short, I have not found a reasonable explanation for the provocation on the part of Turkey.
In order to somehow find an answer to the cause of the incident, let us turn to the facts:
On October 3, 2015, the Turkish Foreign Ministry handed the Russian ambassador a note of protest in connection with the fact that a Russian military aircraft violated the country's airspace in the Yayladagi region of Hatay Province. After which the Russian embassy acknowledged the fact of the violation. Literally the next day, on October 4, an unidentified MiG-29 committed a very dangerous act, taking two Turkish F-16 fighters patrolling in the area of the Syrian-Turkish border into the radar. This act is classified as nothing less than hostile. NATO's reaction to this incident was immediate and harsh. Russia was required to stop the incursion of military aircraft into Turkish territory, pointing out the extreme danger of such irresponsible behavior. And so on November 24, an unidentified Su-24 bomber again invaded Turkish airspace. It should be noted that even on the approach to the border, Turkish air defense systems warned the pilot several times about the dangerous flight direction, but the bomber did not change course and entered Turkish airspace, after which it was shot down by a Turkish F-16 fighter.
Turkey twice expressed a note of protest about the violation of Turkish airspace by Russian military aircraft. However, Russia ignored Ankara's signal, brazenly continuing to play with fire. And now, during another violation of the Turkish border, the Russian SU-24 was shot down. Shot down as a military, mind you, not a civilian, aircraft violating the border. If we recall how the Russians mercilessly shot down a civilian Korean Boeing-747 (269 dead), and recently the Malaysian Boeing flight MH-17 (298 dead) over the territory of the Russian-occupied southeast of Ukraine, then in this case a military intruder was shot down and not a fighter, but a bomber that carried a great danger. Russia should have learned a lesson, and it did.
So from whose side was the provocation? I believe there are three possible answers to this question.
The first is pilot error, which is immediately excluded, because with modern means of orientation of a military aircraft in space, the chance of getting lost is negligible, especially in the daytime. Three incidents in a relatively short period of time on the Turkish border after the Russians came to the aid of the Syrian dictator are no longer an accident, but intentional.
The second is a provocation on the part of the Russians. And for what purpose? Was it really to abandon the Turkish Stream gas project, which is more necessary for the catastrophically declining Russian economy than for Turkey, whose economic growth rate is incomparably higher? Or maybe to start a war with Turkey? But there was no war. The war was exchanged for a refusal to buy Turkish tomatoes, thereby depriving their citizens of vegetables.
The third option, at first glance, is demonstrative in nature, namely to show who is the boss in this region. There is no doubt that the invasion of Russian military aircraft into Turkish airspace did not happen without the knowledge of the world-famous political hooligan Putin.
So what was Putin's political plan, harassing Turkey with constant intrusions into its airspace? I think Putin had several goals. First, to force the Turks to take a low profile and keep quiet, like Lebanon and Syria, when Israeli military aircraft appear unhindered in the skies above their territory. Second, to test NATO's reaction, to know in advance how ready NATO is to stand up for Turkey if a military conflict with Turkey occurs in the future, which could lead to a major war. And he tested it - with the life of a pilot.
Having imagined himself the master of the Middle East, Putin twice ignored Turkey's warnings about air border violations and learned a lesson, subsequently taking offense with Turkish tomatoes, which were again allowed to be imported into Russia. And although after this incident Russian bombers no longer fly over the Turkish border, the lesson did not do any good, because the hooligan, considering the incident with Turkey a private matter, decided to test the Americans' strength by sending the Wagner private military company to recapture oil fields in the Euphrates Valley for the Syrian dictator and was wrong again. What came of this venture is well known - the Americans chopped up the Wagnerites like cabbage. Wagner's symphony over dozens of killed Russian mercenaries sounded very convincing, and the Kremlin's silence indicates that Putin has clearly tucked his tail between his legs and it is unlikely that a new attempt will be made in the future to seize the left-bank territory of the Euphrates with its oil wells. This military episode shows, firstly, that America has not abandoned its original policy of supporting the democratic opposition, and secondly, it highlights the fundamental disagreement between Washington and Moscow on the future structure of Syria as a state. The constant threat of a direct military clash of aircraft with serious consequences undoubtedly causes Putin's concerns. Moscow is keeping a low profile, avoiding confrontation. American Tomahawks blew to shreds the airfield from which Assad's aircraft once struck the opposition with chemical weapons.
It must be said that the Americans even went so far as to inform Assad of the upcoming missile strike on military airfields and are striking in the complete silence of the ally who supposedly pledged to protect the dictator. It is unclear why the Russians installed the vaunted S-300, if not to shoot down everything that violates Syrian airspace. By the way, Israeli pilots regularly carry out missile and bomb strikes on Hezbollah from time to time, and they don't give a damn about the presence of Russian troops in Syria.
The Kurds, who have effectively formalized the eastern part of Syria as their future state, are doing the same, regardless of Assad. Now that the problem with ISIS has been solved, nothing prevents the Kurds from pursuing their main goal - creating a Kurdistan on Syrian territory. True, Turkey is against such an outcome, but on the other hand, the Kurds, having found their own state, may calm down and stop terrorizing Turkey. In turn, Assad will not dare to attack the Kurds, who have no goal of overthrowing his government, unlike the Syrian democratic opposition supported by Turkey.
Erdogan, who wanted to overthrow the Assad regime from the very beginning of the revolution, assessing the current situation, undoubtedly understands the danger that the PKK militants pose to the 2.5 million Turks in the provinces of Idlib and Aleppo. Moreover, as a result of the weakening of Assad's power, almost half of the Syrian-Turkish border is in the hands of the Kurds, which poses a danger to Turkey.
It should be noted that the Russian air force mercilessly bombed Idlib, as an area under the control of the democratic opposition. Incidentally, Russian planes were shot down in those areas. The situation around Afrin in the province of Aleppo was especially difficult, where Kurdish militants were exterminating local Turks, and this despite the fact that a Russian monitoring mission was in Afrin. Erdogan has repeatedly raised the issue of the situation in Afrin, but it seems that he has not found understanding. In this regard, on January 20, 2018, Erdogan was forced to announce the start of the military operation "Olive Branch". As a result, the Turkish army is in the province of Idlib. I would like to note that the famous Russian political scientist Satanovsky, president of the "Institute of the Middle East", who imagined himself an expert on the Middle East, considered Turkey's intervention in Syria unlikely (4) and was very wrong. The emergence of a new player in Syria makes the situation so confusing that one can wait for peace soon for as long as one wants.
As is known, Putin and Assad were ready for a major offensive on the Idlib province controlled by Turkey and the Syrian opposition. Moreover, according to a report from American intelligence, Assad gave the go-ahead for the use of chemical weapons against militants of the democratic opposition, in particular chlorine, which had already been successfully tested during battles in the suburbs of Damascus. The fact is that chlorine gas is heavier than air and penetrates into the basements of city buildings where opposition militants were hiding. Moreover, chlorine easily evaporates after a short time, leaving no traces except corpses. And if it is not identified on site in time, then proving the use of chlorine as a chemical weapon is very problematic. In this regard, Trump loudly declared that he would take retaliatory military action in the event of an attack by government troops on Idlib. His decision was supported by London, Paris and even Berlin. As a result, an armada of warships, including the aircraft carrier Harry Truman, entered the Mediterranean Sea. These forces significantly outnumber the Russian fleet concentrated off the coast of Syria. In such circumstances, for Russia to provide allied obligations to Assad means one thing - to enter into an open military confrontation with the West. As a result, Putin found himself in a serious dilemma: either to tuck his tail between his legs again and remain a bystander to Assad's defeat, or to see the scenario of the Wagner military operation near the Euphrates again, but only on a much larger scale. In both cases, Putin will not escape shame. But here he is saved by the cunning Erdogan, who seemed to be just waiting for the right moment to offer Putin a deal that the latter cannot refuse, because otherwise he could lose everything.
By the way, in order to strengthen the Turkish army in Idlib, already on the eve of negotiations with Putin, Turkey, in anticipation of a military operation, additionally introduces heavy military equipment, including 50 tanks. In short, as a result of difficult negotiations in Sochi in September 2018, which lasted more than 4 hours, Putin, in order to avoid a shameful defeat, refuses to attack Idlib and, contrary to Assad's wishes, accepts Erdogan's proposal to create a 15 km buffer zone free of heavy weapons.
Thus, firstly, Erdogan's plan prevents an open military clash between the American coalition and the Russians in Syria, and secondly, it secures Turkey's control over the Idlib province, thereby correcting the mistakes made by Great Britain and France when dividing the territory of the Ottoman Empire at the end of World War I, which arbitrarily drew borders without taking into account the ethnic composition of the population. In essence, in order to save face, Putin betrayed his ally Assad, paying with part of the Syrian territory.
It is absolutely clear that Syria as a single state can no longer function. The only possible outcome is the disintegration of Syria into several independent countries, taking into account ethnic and religious differences. The Arab revolution in Syria turned out to be multicolored, but, unfortunately, in the absence of pink.
Perhaps, if Assad had surrendered power to the democratic opposition at the very beginning of the political crisis, the disintegration of the country could have been avoided, but Russia's support for the Syrian dictator left no chance to preserve Syria within its former borders.
It seems that Putin's Russia, which is vainly trying to prolong the agony of the bloody regime of Bashar Assad, which is unpopular in the country, is awaiting the same shameful fate that the Soviet Union experienced in Afghanistan on the eve of its disappearance.
1. A camel for the president. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/5271.html
2. Putin and his new world disorder. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/35844.html
3. To the failed military coup in Turkey. https://alikbahshi.livejournal.com/29886.html
4. https://vpk-news.ru/articles/40255
19.09.18
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