Topic: Question about possible split (Read 517 times)

it has already happened!
there was a big panic wave because of lots of FUD and price went down to $1830 (according to bitstamp) and as the panic ended and FUD cleared up, specially as the real signalling for SegWit started, the price recovered back up to above $2300

by the way there is a speculation board for all price related stuff which you can visit and ask your questions: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0

I was wondering that there are probably a lot of users who, instead of making a payout on their own wallets, would probably exchange bitcoin for some other cryptocurrency or USD which should cause big increases in the cryptocurrency exchanges and a BTC/USD drop before August 1st. What do you think about that?

That is incorrect. There can still be one or more splits. However these splits may not be persistent. Those miners who are not following the BIP 91 rules will find their block orphaned. Since there may be 20% or more (because of variance, BIP 91 could activate without 80%) of miners who are not following the BIP 91 rules, they could end up mining a small fork of the chain briefly before the rest of the miners mine a chain longer than theirs and causes a reorg. Furthermore, with the prevalence of spy mining, miners who are enforcing BIP 91 may accidentally end up extending a non-BIP 91 chain because they are mining before validating.

The same issue would happen if BIP 148 had majority hash rate support, but because it does not, BIP 148 would likely result in a persistent two chain split.

You are asking us to predict the future; we can't do that. BIP 91 currently has almost 80% hash rate support. With some luck and variance, it could activate soon. Whether it actually does waits to be seen. We cannot predict the future.

Furthermore, even if BIP 91 does activate, miners may not be actually enforcing it so it may not even activate segwit.

If BIP 91 activates, then it will require all blocks to signal for segwit. This is the same as what BIP 148 requires after August 1st, so, assuming that there are no chain splits because of BIP 91, BIP 148 nodes will follow the same chain, and after August 1st, both will be enforcing the same rules.

This is all becoming very confusing now. Please allow me to divert the topic a little. What is the current status of Segwit2x now and will it be successful in activating Segwit? If the answer is yes, then what will happen to BIP148?

There won't be any split, just scaremongering to get you to sell Your bitcoins on the cheap. Just stay cool and watch bitcoin rise in price after august. Now might be a good time to buy though.

Wow!!! Just noticed it. The BIP 91 support was around 30% a few days back, and now it has gone up to 77.8%. Just 2.2% more needed to avoid the split. BTW, keep an eye on the exchange rates as well.

Unfortunately, the price of bitcoin and even other cryptocurrencies will probably crash, due to unnecessary panic from uninformed bitcoin owners.

yeah, its still confuse to see what will be happen in 1st august because too many news that give different possibility. like you, i am only waiting for the day, still doing trading and another thing while i can increase my bitcoin from trading. there are many news that we don't know the truth and some of them its just telling some point and not whole point.

i hope whatever the result, bitcoin price is not going down to far like yesterday and the price is only increase more so there is another positive side we can get from the result.

All I can say is that I prefer to just wait and see what can happen on and after August 1. It is getting confusing to an ordinary guy like me reading all the news, ideas and opinions coming from all corners of the globe whether there can be a split or not.

Now, having said that, just like the many of us here I wish that there will be no need for a split as it can be an uphill battle for Bitcoin from there on if that can happen at all.

Even if there is a split, lets hope it wouldn't affect bitcoin price much.

No split will not. It is rumors that are spread by speculators. The rift put into question the existence of all crypto currencies. Nobody is going to go. In the equipment of miners invested billions of dollars and so I am sure that nothing will happen.

Hmm that is kind of confusing, does it mean there could be multiple split or just 1 split? Multiple split would be a nightmare no?

You forget about UASF BIP148 which also requires more than 50% miners support for no split to take place.
BIP148 > 50% Miners Support =SegWit Activated
BIP148 < 50% Miners Support = Bitcoin Split

I am not an expert on this. Like you, this still bothers me a lot. The last time I checked that is already 81% and the needed is only 80%. That's the majority choice already. They are representing the segwit2x. If I'am not mistaken, it still has to be finally agreed with the core team. The core team's option is segwit. Therefore, I think they will still have to reach a common ground and agree on one final decision. But, as to the probability of a split, right from the very start, all the parties are avoiding that.

If 80% miners signalled activation of BIP91,there will be no split.Is it correct as currently 76% have signalled it and with 11 days remaining, 4% more could join.
If that happens,there will be no split?