I've been wanting to ask the following about key pair generation.
Key pairs are created at random and anyone can create as many as he wants. Would it theoretically be possible that someone happened to create an existing key pair that gives access to someone else's balance? Even if the probability is extremely low, wouldn't is be a matter of time for this to happen eventually?
While there are no certainties in probability the odds are so incredibly small it is ~0% (~ indicating roughly zero).
If you built a perfect supercomputer (as in the thermodynamic limit - physically impossible to be more efficient) and used all the matter in our solar system to construct it and powered it by a dysons sphere which at perfect efficiency capture all the energy of our star ....
you couldn't even count to 2^256 before our star burned out. Keep in mind that is counting ( 1, 2, 3, ... 2^256) not performing ECDSA computations, hashing to get the address and looking up the balance.
Another way to look at it ....
These numbers have nothing to do with the technology of the devices; they are the maximums that thermodynamics will allow. And they strongly imply that brute-force attacks against 256-bit keys will be infeasible until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space.
http://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2009/09/the_doghouse_cr.htmlThat's Bruce Schneier (inventor of the Blowfish encryption algorithm and an expert on cryptography & security in general, also a favorite author of mine.
Applied Cryptography although a little dated should be REQUIRED reading for anyone looking to build secure systems).
".... until computers are built from something other than matter and occupy something other than space ..."
Yeah I think we are safe.