Topic: Raoul Pal - Bitcoins to hit one million dollars and warns about US depression (Read 325 times)

The latest thread from Raoul Pal after BTC tested $10K today: https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1258567633168932874


His first target: $400,000
Second target: $1 million

This is the "technical break" he's talking about:



I'm skeptical, but after living through 2 bubbles I won't say it's impossible.

There is really nothing you can do to stop these people because they get a microphone and you don't, so they will say whatever they want and they will get some news and some attention.

However what you can do is exactly this, whenever you see news like this in place you could basically just warn everyone that this person could very well be wrong and why they are wrong. Bitcoin could hit one million dollars that is not a joke but not right now and probably not anytime soon neither, that could happen on a very very very long period of time. I can see bitcoin being a million dollars probably 10-15 years from now, that would be realistic, probably in two in three decades which would be more guaranteed. But even with that knowledge I wouldn't guarantee it, I would say its probably but not definite.

Don't rule it out. A lot can happen in 5 years. The crazy Bitcoiner in me thinks central banks could enter the picture as well, with BTC becoming a reserve asset eventually.


No more bubbles? Unlikely. Until mass adoption has actually occurred, it'll remain a very speculative market.

There is no further details to his claim and his speculation is basically coming from his own opinion only so we cannot really trust it. If he can further put a good evidence to his claim like how he concluded that US is currently in depression then we can say that his speculation about the bitcoin price will be a little bit genuine.

But considering the event, I am sure that he is not aware to his basis and only put that prediction base on the past prediction by other big personalities. I am not really sure if Gold can be used to predict the bitcoin price and as you can see 1m$ bitcoin price is a very long journey even if we can have 2 bull season within 5 years.

So this is the new John McAfee,I guess.
This guy thinks that trillions of dollars will be invested in Bitcoin for the next 5 years.Why?
Will retail merchants accept BTC payments?Nope.Will the average Joe abandon all his credit/debit cards and setup a BTC wallet+buying some Bitcoins?I don't think so.The only way for pumping the Bitcoin price that high is to create a huge price bubble with the help of institutional investors-banks,hedge funds,corporations.
Don't get me wrong.I want the Bitcoin price to go as high as possible,but let's be realistic.I want this to happen in a stable and predictable way,due to the mass BTC adoption and not via price bubbles&speculation.

Most people overestimate Bitcoin's sell side liquidity. Past bubbles have been marked by exchange supply drying up. There is no limit to the upside when nobody is selling and demand is surging.

"Easily" $1,000,000 within 5 years? Someone might demand that you cut the familiy jewels for that. Haha.

Although, I can see 6 figures within 5 years. The fudsters will only wish that we believed them, to cry with them.

It's strange to think but these economists from US and China still think like nothing else happens outside their borders. And to be fair, when they're living in and feeling the effects of their economies, perhaps macro doesn't really impact them personally. Still, nothing is going to be f*cked the way Bitcoin maximalists dream of. Trust me, we won't be starving the way our grandparents were. I'm talking about us here online able to chat in a "great depression".

Let us all asume that the depression is predicted just for the US dollar because of the corona virus and i think he forgot the fact that the situation is not better elsewhere around the globe, the European economy will be affected as well as all the developing countries is struggling to cope up with the situation and one thing is certain we will have a global recession. The study is full of flaws just taking into consideration that only the US economy will be doomed after the pandemic.

If the situation he and others posit becomes true (the fiat, banking, economic system is fucked and goes to hell), then sure. Bitcoin could hit 1 million USD. But if we're thinking about a future like that, then it's not impossible to foresee a 1,000% inflation for USD in say, 5 years. So, relatively speaking, that 1 million dollars is only worth $100k today. Sure, it makes sense.

Well what do I know? I'm just another armchair economist.

I'm sure Raoul Pal's analysis goes much deeper than mine. My basic idea is that both liquidity crises and deflation represent strong downward pressures on commodity prices. Maybe he views debt deflation depressions as different than other depressions, and believes they have a different effect on money commodities vs. food commodities and productive commodities. I'm not sure.

This analysis and a few others have been influential for me: https://www.valuewalk.com/2020/04/deflation-gold-prices/

He considers these factors to be mid-term bearish for gold:

• The shutdowns are eating into savings and wealth. Diminished disposable capital and rising debt will hurt demand.
• Deflation has historically been bad for gold.
• Dollar funding stress from disrupted cash flows means a stronger dollar, which also typically means weaker gold prices.
• Previous divergences between oil and gold have ended with a decline in gold prices.

Interesting...so you think that gold would be weak as well? It is quite possible.
Re Raoul Pal: yes, exactly, if dollar is strong, why btc and especially gold be strong as well?

He posted a very in depth Twitter thread today elaborating on his theory, which is basically: depression, strong US dollar, strong gold, strong BTC. https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1254110879479746562

Regarding the early signs of depression and the technical case for a strong USD, the signs are definitely there. What I'm less confident about is his theory about mid-term strength in gold and BTC. On one hand he expects the flight to dollar liquidity to strengthen the dollar. On the other hand he expects that to positively affect gold and BTC, which is counterintuitive to me.

Let's use 2008 as a model. A few days after Bear Stearns was bailed out in March, gold topped and DXY bottomed on the same day (March 17th). Very strong negative correlation throughout 2008. Strong dollar = weak gold.





Like 2008-2009, I would expect gold to rally in the recovery stage, not the initial demand shock stage. BTC is probably in a similar boat, given that it correlates better to gold than stocks over the long term.

I think he's reading too much into short term gold price action. There has been a huge scarcity of physical gold since the shutdowns forced significant miners and smelters to stop production. I think this condition is temporary, and also why gold and BTC have diverged so much recently.

Anybody can look at the report (The Unfolding) for free, by providing a name and email address.

That said, he made a cardinal mistake there of mixing short term and long term calls in one piece.
Short term calls did not pan out (at all), which makes his long term calls (which could be right) less credible.

The main long term call is that we would have a Depression II with waves of liquidation happening, strong dollar and bullish gold and btc.
Regarding stocks, the graphs are eerily similar to GDI so far, I admit that, but the future is less clear due to massive programs that were enacted already (within a month) while in GDI they were put into place 3 years after it all started. There is no paucity of cash, either, with all that brrr.
So far fed was able to put everything on pause with a bullish tint. Will we still be higher in 4-5 mo (the duration of GDI rebound rally)? Maybe.
In 12 mo? Maybe not.
After that-can't say.

It can be found here. You can read it for free if you hand over an email address - https://www.realvision.com/gmi

Normally they charge for the stuff they publish I think. If you're a chart fan it'll make you cream your knickers.

I did a search for his twitter account ---> https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI, and I did not find any report on such a prediction. Can anyone confirm that he said this analysis or are they just passing discussions?

I think that the news reports such news should differentiate between expectations based on analytical predictions and discussion with rich investors, they are their words and do not necessarily mean that they may happen, especially if the arguments based on them are weak.

People are buying because it's a relief rally and there is still a lot of optimism in the market. They see a steep discount vs. last year's prices, or they sold into the crash and are chasing the price back up.

But what if we're actually in the blow-off phase?



My original model for this crisis was the 1987 crash. That served well in the recovery. However since the pandemic is worsening and there are growing signs of deflation, it's worth looking at the 1929-1932 crash. The initial drop and 2-month bull trap retracement are very similar to the current market:



Now we are clearly in different circumstances given the Fed's unlimited QE and the Treasury's money printing, but the idea is something to consider.


I can easily see $1 million in 5 years, especially if the market just wicks to that price in another bubble.

In the next year or three, I don't know how this pandemic will play out. It could be stagflation, which would be bullish for BTC. Or it could be depression, which would probably be bearish.

Plus it will not matter how much you bought Bitcoin, because within 10 years, HODLING as much of it as you can afford, WILL make you look like a briliant investing/market wizard.

The issue right now is all the money that the fed is printing and how it leads to huge inflation. Hence why people are buying stocks because their cash is going to become worth less in the near future.

With bitcoin and its halving coming up its the complete opposite of cash. So I believe him in that regard. However the $1 million price point is just out of hand even in 5 years. I think if we even hit 6 figures that will be considered a great price.

Right now we just need to break the ATH set in 2017 and then the retail market should start to invest and the price will accelerate quickly.

If you stop focusing on BTC as a mechanism for price appreciation, you might see it just trades one pox for another. History shows clearly the gold standard doesn't prevent brutal economic depressions. It's widely accepted among economists that ending the gold standard is why the US got out of the Great Depression when it did.

A few halvings from now, Bitcoin supply will be much more fixed than even gold. Can you imagine national currencies having a fixed peg to BTC? The deflationary possibilities are terrifying. People don't start businesses when there is no possibility of economic growth, and they stop spending money on anything besides bare essentials. In such a scenario, I could see economies swinging back and forth between stagnation and depression, with no prospects for growth. With a growing population, you can probably imagine how this becomes increasingly problematic over time.

I don't know what the ideal solution is on the Keynesian vs. Austrian spectrum, but I don't believe we will go back to fixed commodity standards that facilitate deflation. If we do, the next Great Depression will surely convince people the erosion of stability is not worth it.

In that sense, BTC primarily is and will always be seen as a tool for personal enrichment, not so much as a form of currency, and definitely not as a global reserve currency itself. It will just provide people who have already amassed wealth a way to hedge it. It's like gold in a vault, not spending money. Of course, this doesn't solve the actual problem of economic stability and reserve currencies.

^ His prediction might be correct that after five years bitcoin might hit one million dollars because most investors nowadays considered bitcoin and cryptocurrency as a safe haven but not all. Comparing the Bitcoin market to gold market somehow for me is not accurate because these two markets have different value as an asset. The value of gold depends on the supply and demand including stocks exchange, while bitcoins rely only on supply and demand for it is decentralized. Nevertheless, prediction is different from forecasting that means Pal's statement may come true or may not because there is no assurance when we say prediction.

He stated the advantage of BTC related to this pandemic. I don't see any reason to disagree after all I want BTC to be $1M but in 5 years?

If this is the case, this 2020 the price of BTC should bee about $100k just assuming it will spike up to double each year.  Too much in 5 years, 20 years probably but John McAfee' = Raoul Pal. I still wanted to see dick eating 

He gave his prediction few years latter and deadline is 5 year latter. While MacAfee prediction looked for most time totally  impossible. This prediction have at least a bit of chance to happen. But I give it still way less then 50%. I am sure when we will be at top of next bull run a million USD Bitcoin before 2026 will look very possible. But that will be just then.

His main point is that the current meltdown may mark a sea change in how Bitcoin is perceived. If things had carried on as before it's expected that people would've continued to treat it as a speculative toy.

He's highlighting that it's a complete alternative system with none of the weaknesses, lies and holes that the current one has, though obviously it has its own issues too. We know this. Not many others can be arsed right now to make that leap.

If enough people switch their perception from occasional dollar generator to that then those telephone numbers stop seeming so outlandish. It will never gain major traction without that attitude change and for better or worse the present might be the trigger for it.

I do not mind that someone has expressed his opinions, he could also write that BTC will be worth $10 million in 10 years, but that doesn't mean something like that can really happen. I think we should first of all be interested in when BTC will become (if at all possible) a less volatile asset that people will trust more than this is the case today.

If things were as simple as described by Raoul Pal, then I would also be able to accept that huge capital will move to BTC in the next 3-5 years, but expect $10 trillion into a market that is still pretty unregulated, extremely volatile and let's be honest still with very bad reputation (Bitcoin as currency for money laundering, drug sales, terrorist financing+environmental devastation via mining).

When BTC becomes at least $1 trillion market, then it would be appropriate to talk about what awaits us in the future. All these so-called experts skip some lower levels only for the purpose of manipulating with big numbers.

That's obviously an exaggerated prediction even if backed up with supporting scenarios in the current events unfolding before our very eyes.

Even if the US or the world would face another depression, or even a worse one this time, I don't think Bitcoin would rise up that high in the next five years, not even in the next decade.

There is only one reason I can think of why a lot of these financial investors are surfacing now is they've just acquired Bitcoin and is hoping to hype things up with their bold predictions. This Raoul Pal guy hasn't been linked with Bitcoin from what I believe and only this moment is he showed up which means that Pal might just be a late adopter and maybe is holding Bitcoin at a lost that's why his sentiments are positive about it. I won't be surprised if he late on admits that he is holding both Bitcoin and Gold where he is both positive about these assets, these people will always have a hidden agenda behind them.

At least he didnt make any deals or attached up BS things about his prediction which is acceptable.We can predict or speculate as much as we want
neither you are a popular person or not.It might differ on how things being hyped up or getting much attention.

Usually when predictions go beyond previous ATH then thats the time i do ignore.Lets just wait on how the market moves but well anything
do have its possibility.

It's part of a 120 page report he made available for everyone. It's worth a read and applying the context.



It's not about it being just another asset any more, it's about it being a whole separate system that's immune to the pox that's ever weakening the existing one. If enough people take that point of view then it becomes a more feasible prediction.

The current shitshow is a major push towards that realisation.

I believe his prediction more than I believe John McAfee's $1,000,000 per Bitcoin prediction, even though Raoul Pal didn't propose cutting off, and eating his own penis. Haha.

Buy the dip, and?

Raoul Pal who’s a global macro investor has made a prediction for bitcoin prices that they’ll hit the one million mark in the next five years. Further he’s even compared bitcoin market with gold market to drive his point across, but in my personal opinion both are different assets and hence I don’t think his prediction is correct as he’s based it on a wrong analysis. Also he claims that US markets  is in depression mode, and soon the global markets will also fall in depression which maybe accurate to a certain extent. What do you’ll make of his predictions is he right to use the gold market to make a prediction for bitcoin?, and is the US market already in depression mode?.

Sources:

https://u.today/raoul-pal-predicts-when-bitcoin-btc-price-could-reach-1-mln

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-think-the-coronavirus-has-put-the-us-economy-into-another-great-depression-strategist-172759535.html