Topic: Reality Check on Crypto (Read 582 times)

Nowadays, people are here in bitcoin not because of its decentralized functionality but because it is a speculative asset that could gain them profit in either short term or long term. I believe there are only a few people that are here in crypto just for the sake of anonymity. Sure, they are here for that, but I doubt that's the sole reason. Perhaps we can consider those people who are not into KYC because there are still people who are uncomfortable with that. But I guess aside from that, their main reason is not to advocate decentralization, but to earn and generate income. Let's not be a hypocrite, shall we?

Also, investors and traders have a love-hate relationship with volatility. Why do I say so? Because volatility can either make or break your investment or trading strategy. When the volatility in favors with you, definitely you would celebrate. Otherwise, you'll regret, sulk, and be bitter about the outcome. It's just really a matter of what situation you are in and how volatility is affecting you. We have different perspective about it based on the current scenario we are in.

If you don't have the heart to invest and trade crypto, then do not enter. You have to have a critical thinking skills in order to survive and thrive. If there are any lurkers reading this that are still thinking and contemplating whether to do crypto or not, reassess your main purpose and your risk tolerance first before executing your decision. Be wise. Don't just follow the hype.

This is why I think the pandemic changed the game forever, up until now the economic growth was still enough to disguise the fundamentals problems of the economies of the world, but now those problems have been accelerated by all the money governments had to print and the reduction on the economic activity they caused by their policies, so I do not think all of those jobs that were lost are coming back and when we add all the money that was given to the population for free then this is making the situation even worst.

This is the reason I feel that Vitalik's opinion may not need to remain true forever (I remember he was too confident about hardfork on bitcoin blockchain to scale but bitcoin adapted segwit instead). Crypto payments will be available to everyone in near future which means it will be substantially used by everyone regardless of they are liking the volatile nature or they love decentralized concepts.

What into I believe more is, even tier-1 country people are being served by traditional finance system decently, we cannot expect them not to adapt revolutionary new system. At least for a change people may prefer to try it. This is the point where Vitalik's opinion turns complete wrong.

Yes of course, I'm not disputing the fact, because not everyone in bitcointalk is an investor, majority learn how to become an investor through the community of bitcointalk, and specifically the forum is meant to acquire the knowledge of bitcoin, and with lectures the community will render to you who are novice to crypto related transactions, you as well will be acquainted to cryptocurrencies generally, and during your investment they will not be difficulty again.

It is available everywhere except you mean awareness that few people in different countries have moreover the growth is increasing compared to 4 years ago. Cryptocreency cut to everyone and country except those who are fighting against it and limiting people from using it because they want to put their fiat first like China and they try to ban it. It is unstoppable to everyone reach only people in authority trying to limit the use.

for the most part what is stated in the presentation is understandable and logical, but the reality is that people are not also that so happy about using the current finical system set by the government or like filling their pockets with change and paper money, they do it because they have no choice and are forced to do it because shops and businesses or any other transactions are set to be done that way, but i am sure if they had an alternative they would change to using it, if crypto payments were available everywhere we would see it being used by the average person.

We that spend time on this forum, go on crypto Twiter or chat on various Telegram crypto groups, we tend to forget that we are in a bubble of sorts and that we are not the norm of the average investors, more an exception. And things like that will start to show more as crypto gets more widespread.

You are right, if there were no BTC there would be nothing, that is why many say that BTC is the King, he is the boss and that is why it is the total dependence of altcoins by BTC. I have seen many talk that altcoins can survive without BTC and no, it is impossible, it is like the example you give with USDT, USDT is not totally USD, it has a combination with crypto, because that was the last report made. .

However, currently BTC is reaching governments and banks with more force, USDT is only seen as one more stablecoin, I believe that the reality with crypto resides from that point of view, where it could have had many origins, but it really was created since Satoshi Nakamoto came out.

Historically inflation for the US has not been this high, but also keep in mind the growth of the US economy, spending, federal reserve liabilities, and ratio of debt to GDP.

The US economic numbers were released recently and the economy is growing at 2 percent with a 5 percent inflation rate. So there is not enough money being generated to even being close to paying off any debt. The currency is going to balloon, compound this with the current labor shortage that exists in the US due to generous unemployment benefits.

2021 was of course unique due to the pandemic so previous inflation numbers won't be good in predicting future inflation numbers because of the permanent economic ramifications of shutting down entire pillars of the economy.

You know, when Vitalik make presentations like that... he actually wants to identify the key areas where Crypto enthusiasts like ourselves has to focus on. He wants to change people's perspective on Crypto currency as a payment option and he also wants to boost Ethereum as a better choice than Bitcoin.

I am not sure when that presentation was done, but I gather it was before Bitcoin developers added the Lightning Network to Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin was not an attractive alternative currency before the Lightning Network... but as we are seeing in Venezuela.. it is kicking ass.  

You know what they say about opinions. Everybody has one. Just like an asshole.

This freak also has an opinion, it appears and his opinion isn't really much more important than yours.

Of course he will tell these because he is selling eth. Eth and Btc are competing with each other.

Not saying his words are false. It might be true.

I wonder what he thinks about shiba inu because right now it is kicking ass of both btc and eth.

Correct, this is not something that happens only to bitcoin it happens to everything that is less convenient than other options, for example lets take a look at smart phones, there is no doubt that smart phones are very useful tools but at the same time people have accepted to exchange that convenience for their privacy, there are phones that let you retain come level of privacy but do people care? Not really, as they are fine with that exchange, and something similar happens with fiat and bitcoin.

Quite interesting topic to talk about since we all are different and naturally, have different reasons/motives in coming and staying in this industry. But one way or another, as the new generation take over the gone, the world will eventually come to realize the importance of decentralisation and this industry that advocates it. Earning is a plus, yes. But the main point is that at some point, people will get sick of the outdated and buased system. Thus increasing the number of people using crypto and pushing its cause.

Not specific to Bitcoin. People always trade decentralization for convenience until their chosen centralized system crashes. But what keeps the smarter of them from also hodling something less convenient that might still be there when the more convenient choices devalued through some accident?

The market still depends on the bitcoin market because if you check on the market when the bitcoin price is down, the altcoin will go down following the bitcoin market. Although USDT  transaction volume is greater than bitcoin, still, bitcoin leads the market and makes the altcoin follow on bitcoin.

What makes people come to bitcoin is the opportunity to make money at home and almost desperate to make money in this pandemic. They see bitcoin as a new way to make money, so they start learning bitcoin and know that bitcoin can be an asset or investment for them besides making money.

I reckon that I would not be holding bitcoin if I though that it would not increase in value in the future, who would! However, bitcoin has some advantages to me when I have to move money from one country to another or when I need to have a reserve in case things go really wrong, I mean, at a catastrophic level of doom.

It is not my case, but I wonder if a refugee would rather stick a few diamonds up his ass to pass a border after fleeing or would he rather have bitcoin.

Well, the point is that the crypto market is not easily extinguished or sinks, it will still be alive by the number of demands, which is increasing day by day, as well as certain projects related to certain Altcoins.
The world is increasingly focused on the internet, and cryptocurrency is one of the important roles related to this, especially Bitcoin, this will increasingly play a role and not only take advantage as an asset, but it looks like a global currency that can be transacted for many things in life.

The volatility should decrease to a point with the increase in adoption, after all the reason volatility is so high is that right now the main use of bitcoin is as a speculative asset, however when this changes and bitcoin is mostly used as a currency then the price should become more stable and the power of the speculators should decrease, they will still hold a lot of power but it will not be as great as what we are witnessing right now.

The idea started even before 2000's, maybe by satoshi himself, maybe someone who is totally stranger who just checked, but if you check the "e-money" world, we had many many periods before bitcoin that had emoney methods.

However, blockchain basically created something that is non-penetrable and also decentralized which gave its power. Look at usdt to see the difference, if the first coin was USDT then we wouldn't have this situation, we would have something that is totally different, why? Because it is centralized and pegged, then we wouldn't have crypto at all. The reason why bitcoin became this famous is the fact that it is decentralized and it is totally owned by the people and nobody else.

The thing that makes us optimistic is that the market is no longer dependent on bitcoin, look at USDT or other coin fixes, the transaction volume is greater than bitcoin, this makes the competition even better and if bitcoin drops then there is hope for altcoins that can help bitcoin.

The reality is that bitcoin first appeared on the earth a decade and few more years ago on the earth. It's planning might have started way before that so that the inventor was busy coding the blockchain and it's logics. Ideally it started, and it never looked back to this date. The reality is that, there is more than trillions of dollars which are being spend on the blockchain and the enormous volume is driving the price of bitcoin to the new goal.

Now, what bunch of peeps think about the bitcoin does not matter here. If invisible reader is here to gain more knowledge about it, then read the above para twice and empty your bank into crypto before its too late.

The reality tells me, bitcoin is now way sophisticated asset than it was a year ago and it would far more lucid a year after this. So don't argue, because we would be just wasting the time and nothing else.

Yes. And with the rising inflation that most of the countries are currently facing right now, its no wonder that some countries are considering to adopt bitcoin as a currency so that inflation would not be felt totally by the people. So in this case, bitcoin is now starting to gain massive adoption not just for the sake of investment's profits but also as a currency that will eliminate inflation that most of the countries are suffering at the present.

However, with regards to its decentralization and volatility, i think it will also be address by the government once it will be a global currency in the future.

Well, I am agree that most users are not ideological advocates and that if they came from first world countries they are more or less decently served by the modern financial system. But, I highly disagree some part that these people dislike price volatility. As a matter of fact, the volatility price itself brought them into crypto market. Maybe some of the people do not appreciate those qualities right now because they do not see the need, but ask people in countries where inflation is out of control and people are using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to protect themselves and we will see they appreciate the fact that it has a lot of importance to them.

And without a doubt you have a point as the majority of those that are getting into bitcoin right now are doing it for the profits they can possibly make, and taking into account that we are in the middle of a bull market then this is not really a surprise, but I really think many people will come to appreciate the characteristics of bitcoin and its decentralization especially since I really think that a massive economic crisis is basically inevitable at this point.

It's not as If people using the morden financial system feel too comfortable using them even though most of the financial institutions tries their best to maintain a clean and transparent ledger. The issue of volatility has made many shy away from substantiating Bitcoin as a unit-of-account. And non-decentralized advocators aren't knowledgeable enough to know what the stand to gain using the decentralized ledger format. Many still see Bitcoin as an anti-government innovation that has come to fight against the long existence of manipulated ledger accounts. But in actual sense Bitcoin is more saving than the traditional banking system.

If Bitcoin can attain some level of stability many would decide to adopt it as a clear unit-of-account across boarders. With the level of volatility it posses if it's used for transaction purpose there will be constant difference in price from point to point and a drop in currency value might alter transactions.

Once you had stepped your foot into this market with having that initial impression whether you do aim mainly  for profits or simply been interest on its real use case then sooner or later you would really able to

realize on what things are happening and you would be aware on how this market moves and how Bitcoin did really have big purpose and benefits  when it comes to decentralization.

You should be aware at least on whats happening around and you could make yourself some decisions which would fit out on the situation.

But the thing is not only for the profits, many investors who entered into the bitcoin just for the profits changed into a crypto enthusiast after realizing the importance of decentralization, for some it will take more time but surely everyone will come to the right track and beat the banks control over all our money.

I believe the set of generation of people that will see bitcoin as only an asset and not as investment opportunity or tool is yet not arrived. Almost every body that has bitcoin currently are doing so because of the investment value. Maybe back in the early years of bitcoin when it was used to buy pizza could have passed for just asset and hodling but currently it is invested on for profit taking.

We have known this for a very long time, the average investor is here for the profits they can make and nothing more, however this is not bad in itself, people do this all the time, they begin to do something for a reason and then they find many other reasons to keep doing that activity, I am convinced that many of those people that are only looking for profits will come to appreciate the other characteristics of bitcoin and will eventually become to use it in their everyday lives.

Does this distribution tell you why this is so? Everything is quite simple - this is a list of countries where there is no good financial regulation, where there are "gaps" in the legislative base, where there is corruption, there is no desire to formalize some processes. The USA is probably on this list as one of the most technologically advanced

Well he did make some points there that are true. First of all the one he said that most users of Bitcoin dislike the price volatility: it is true that a lot of people you’re going to talk to about Bitcoin are not going to like the volatility part of it, so they are going to avoid it.

I am saying this with experience, because 90% of the people I would talk to about Bitcoin always lose interest when you talk about the volatility part of it, they are not ready to take that risk. And next, the part that most users are not ideological decentralization advocates, that is also true. You don’t really need anyone to tell you about that one, unless things are going to change in the future.

Coming from the presentation of Vitalik, I'm surprised to see what he's saying about bitcoin. Did he really make that presentation or someone has made it for him to present? And what about Ethereum, does he tell that Ethereum is much more of a unit of account than bitcoin?
So if this presentation was in the past and he's selling Ethereum to people invest in bitcoin. I hope that he'll start taking back what he has said about bitcoin on this presentation then.

The crypto adopters who pushed the price too high don't really care about decentralization. The hard truth is that most crypto enthusiasts are just FOMO trying to get rich. I feel like a lot of people still don't understand the potential future value of cryptocurrencies, and you're trying. Trying to talk about in this photo step all i see is denial in your posts  . everyone has different desires and goals it seems that BTC is too volatile and this is still apprehensive of some countries especially people in El Salvador they have had protests against acceptance of BTC as paid currency, Imagine if every month you work and the price of BTC drops 2% paying in BTC for living expenses is very difficult for some people in El Salvador.

I like to think that too. I'm glad you basically pointed out a few things, 'it's qualities and high value'. One thing I'm not so sure of is the rest of the world flocking to bitcoin, no, not at all. I would say, just enough to make it real and by that, I mean governments of nations inclusive then, the platform would be all set.

People like qualities and what has got qualities have got some real value . Little wonder how gold has been in business and still, not all people in the world are into acquiring it. Same as well applies to bitcoin. Its not about all people but just enough people to keep it going.

It is quite wrong presentation and I am fine with it. There could be a lot of people who could hate bitcoin and I would be very fine with it because in the end I am the one profiting and they are the one missing out. Let the people who dislike bitcoin and doubt it keep on doing that while we reek in the cash. I have been working full-time in crypto for over 5 years now, and I have never been happier, and I have never been richer.

This month I am probably going to earn the biggest amount of money I have ever made in my life, and it was sort of true last month as well. So all in all, I keep making more and more money, save more and more, and profit more as well so it has been an amazing ride. Compared to what I made 5 years ago, I am making insanely higher amount of money right now, probably 10x more. This is why I let all those who doubt bitcoin be wrong and not care enough to correct them, let them be what they want because they are the ones who are missing out.

True, some ETH transactions, particularly NFTs, are already worth hundreds of dollars! Consider that money is already large for certain people, particularly those from third-world nations, therefore it's not a beginner-friendly network, which is why BSC is utilized more than other platforms when it comes to NFTs and other pump and dump schemes. Even though they have already announced the ETH 2.0, it still takes a long time because there are so many cryptocurrency users right now; it should have been done in previous years as they experienced scaling issues in 2017-18; I know it's not easy, but look at TRON and BSC, which are more efficient to newcomers.

If anyone thinks that every investor in the cryptocurrency market really care about the technical aspect of a project, then it is a wrong concept as majority are here to make a quick profit and they will move on to other ones once they book their profit.

Since you added a poster of Vitalik Buterin, he was always boosting his invention of ETH and he always claimed that it will solve the problems BTCitcoin will never solve from the start and always mocking and now what happens to their scaling project is a comical tragedy as users are spending huge amount in transaction fees because of their inability to scale and still look at their valuation as they are soaring despite their higher transaction valuation.

Likewise, in regards to being served by the financial institution, they aren't perfect in providing their services but still useful to some extent, I can agree with the first part of the post, most people who invested in btc are less concerned about it's decentralise nature and more about profit making, reason while they dislike price volatility, the moment the price is in uptrend people seem to be happy, it is a clear indication where the majority of interest lies.

While I get this presentation's point of view, I'm trying to enjoy the benefits of cryptocurrencies. Yes, I'm served just fine by the traditional banking system, I don't have any issues or complaints, however, I have two separate wallets with funds that are not visible to any banking system, it's money I've earned and invested, something that is easily accessible through cryptocurrency.

On top of that, especially now with DeFi and BSC, there are even decentralized exchanges, for those who are all about decentralization, I'm not, but it's a nice feature to have. I'm not a decentralization advocate, but I definitely appreciate its immense possibilities. Furthermore, price volatility is what makes cryptocurrencies challenging and interesting, if you have the experience (and luck), the profit margins can be vast.

On the other hand, I'm 50/50 on the last point, since in the past, I'd use Bitcoin for the purchase of digital goods, however, due to its value, I'd refrain from doing it in the future.

Decentralized contracts were (still are) of interest but the hard-fork reminded me that I didn't know enough to be comfortable putting something like a trust or other valuable contracts on an ETH token.

I've spent bitcoin so in reality it has already worked as a peer to peer payment system.

They do not appreciate those qualities right now because they do not see the need, but ask people in countries where inflation is out of control and people are using bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to protect themselves and we will see they appreciate the fact that governments do not own those cryptocurrencies and the fact they cannot create them at will, so give it time, the fiat system will fall, this is not a prediction it is inevitable, no one knows when it will happen but it will and when it does I can assure you people will love the decentralized nature of bitcoin.

It doesn't surprise me at all what the inventor of one altcoin thinks about Bitcoin, because he, like all other inventors, intended to do something that would be better than Bitcoin, and so far everyone has been unsuccessful. Therefore, every statement of the VB should be viewed in that context, because everything else has no logic.

Three years ago, there was a story that he would do something like Satoshi and disappear, thus decentralizing his project - but we all know that these are just stories for small children.

So I found the presentation where this slide was taken from: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjxkdniYtkc&t=658s. It was at the Ethereum London meetup in October of 2014. Interestingly, he immediately goes on to say that he is holding bitcoin because he thinks there is a very small change of it hitting $17,000, while the current price is $298. The rest of his presentation goes on to (fairly unsurprisingly) make the case for a decentralized base layer which other people can use to build their own projects and services on top of. The whole point of the presentation is get people interested in, and maybe to invest in, Ethereum.

its his prediction that BTC will never be substantially used but being used now, living proof that governments are considering to use it. but vitalik is right on the first one which ideology of decentralization is not what most of the investors come to crypto. what can we say its the profit that people want. you can never live without money in this world.

speculating price is what its for when it comes to currency and BTC or any other cryptocurrency is currency we speculate.

I don't think the OP knows who Vitalik is or what he has contributed to crypto-currency with ethereum and also his partial contributions to Bitcoin, maybe he is looking like a random workshop lecturer.
Although I think that image may not really portray what we think it is, he may be analysing some frequent questions by people, or he is explaining those key points in his own thoughts, regardless I have so much respect for Vitalik and all his contributions.

It depends on what you mean by "doing well":
If you mean I have a bank account with a working debit card that I can use to buy groceries, then yes, I'm doing well.
But if you mean a financial system that protects my money from inflation and doesn't cause a financial crisis because it's based on debt, then no, I'm not doing well at all!

It can't be right: I already have my doubt about "300 million crypto users", considering there are only 38 million funded Bitcoin addresses. One could argue what "ownership" means if they keep it on exchanges (or in shitcoins), so it may be plausible to reach 300 million. But it continues: "36% have an annual income over US$100k", which would mean more than 100 million crypto owners earn over $100k. That seems a bit high considering most of them live in poor countries.

I agree about decentralization (most don't care about it), but I wonder if the next two points really make sense. In the first world, most users are indeed doing well with the current financial system, but are most crypto users in the 1st world? The data varies, but the most comprehensive piece I found is this one, where, by a total number of crypto owners, the top-10 countries are India, the USA, Russia, Nigeria, Vietnam, Ukraine, Kenya, South Africa, Colombia, and Venezuela. Clearly, the majority of countries are far from 1st world, and the majority of users (top-10 accounts for around 85% of crypto owners) as well. As for #3, info like that definitely needs to be supported with sources. I couldn't find data on volatility specifically, but I found a recent poll, and people explained there why they invest in cryptos. Top results are easy trading, excitement, potential short-term growth, which are all associated with volatility IMO.

And yet, long term, bitcoin has only ever gone up while USD has only ever gone down.

Yes, there is a large amount of short term volatility in bitcoin, due to the fact that it is a tiny market with a tiny number of users. A single user with a large enough stack has enough power to move the market enough to trigger a bunch of bots or stop losses or whatever, resulting in significant price shifts. As a market grows, this becomes less possible, and with far greater numbers of buyers and seller clustering up around the current market price, then volatility lessens dramatically.

Using volatility as an argument against why bitcoin cannot scale as a currency is completely missing the point that volatility is inherent to small markets and assets.

You do believe the official reported figures don't you. After all, they have no incentive to lie about that... 

There is one thing that I have strong opinions about.

*The part about disliking the price Volatility*

The sole reason why people flock to bitcoins is because they have the rare opportunity to grow their investments, not just double or triple!! Being the 8th most valuable asset does come with ups and downs ofcourse, just like many other investments, there are whales, who might bring the price down or might be shooting it up in a matter of seconds. People do not hate Volatility, people hate when the price goes down.
Which is something important to consider as well, you have to hold your coins for the long term, plus if you are unsure about it then you just realize that *you do not loose until you do not sell*. Therefore I do believe the investors here are very well aware of the Volatility and this doesn't really freak them out, what causes probelm is panic. Which is entirely different.

Partially.

Sorry, I don't do "influencers". Bitcoin is not about "influential people", Bitcoin keeps going despite many "influential" people declaring it's dead.

I've never liked stable coins: not only do you completely rely on a centralized third party, you're also exposed to the same inflation fiat money gives you. That's not "stable", it should be called "decreasing coins".

---

---

I'm not alone:

I think those points lead to the prediction on that slide, which essentially says that BTC will never be the major currency on the market. There might be a lot of users who use it daily, but it won't replace fiat, which is not necessarily anti-crypto.

Tbh OP doesn't make it clear what he's trying to do here. Sounds like he share the same sentiment, but his last sentence is quite ambiguous.

And so what?No Bitcoin user is obligated to believe in decentralization in order to use Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is a currency/financial asset.Bitcoin is NOT a religion or ideology.


Again...so what?If they are well served by the fiat system,then that's good for them.The crypto industry is an alternative to the banking system,but that doesn't mean that all crypto users are going to dump the banks or fiat money in general.
The "crypto vs.fiat" is just a competition,not a bloody battle,in which only one will remain.


I hate price volatility as well,but that doesn't make me wanna dump Bitcoin.

It seems to me that this list of criticisms against crypto is out of context and the guy doing the presentation looks like Vitalik Buterin.

Unfortunately, it's not inflation that investors who are lurking are concern about but its profit because if not all, most of them expect prices to double after a day of buying a cryptocurrency. They are not planning to hold for a long time.

While those investors who have ideology hated binance for asking KYC, they send drivers licenses and passports to get every airdrop that is offered.

@MNbag. This is not very shocking except for the larpers who only hodl and dreaming to be rich. In reality, they do not use bitcoin for everyday payments, however, they will be very aggressive to call you an antagonizer.

The more honest people would not attack constructive criticsms but would ask and explore if bitcoin can really be used for mainstream adoption and everyday payments.



One month since launch, 12% of consumers have used the cryptocurrency, the Salvadoran Foundation for Economic and Social Development reported.

"Since yesterday, Salvadorans are inserting more cash (to buy #bitcoin) than what they are withdrawing from the @chivowallet ATMs," Bukele tweeted on Wednesday. "This is very surprising so early in the game."

But the foundation, which polled 233 companies across different sectors, found that the overall use was still low, with 93% of companies reporting no bitcoin payments.

"We're still not sure what benefits the government expected," said Leonor Selva of the National Association of Private Enterprises, one of several business groups that remains skeptical about the rollout.

Source https://www.reuters.com/technology/one-month-el-salvadors-bitcoin-use-grows-headaches-persist-2021-10-07/

It's historically not 5% per year, not even close.  The inflation rate over the last 11 years averages 2% per year, and that's including the large increase in 2021.  It's been remarkably stable despite the massive quantitative easing.  And even assuming we used your wrong number of 5% per year, that would still be vastly superior as a currency to one that regularly depreciates 10% in a day.  That's an unusable currency that doesn't allow for any type of long term planning because volatility is a terrible quality for a currency to have.  The inability to plan long term is a death knell for any economy.

Year    Annual Inflation Rate
2011       3.0%
2012       1.7%
2013       1.5%
2014       0.8%
2015       0.7%
2016       2.1%
2017       2.1%
2018       1.9%
2019       2.3%
2020       1.4%
2021       5.4%

Source:  https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/

Am I the only one here who's going to question the context of Vitalik standing in front of that particular slide?  Personally, I have no idea when or where that presentation was or what he was saying at that moment.  Thus it's very hard for me to draw any conclusions from a single picture like that.

That's not why stablecoins are important at all.  First of all, I doubt you know anybody who gets their paycheck in bitcoin, let alone in something like USDT.  Second, the only purpose that I can see for stablecoins is to protect against volatility on exchanges (not in real life like your example), in between trades when you're waiting for a buying opportunity.  But I'd love to hear your counterargument if you see this.

But let's assume that Vitalik was arguing for all of those points shown on his slide; I agree that the current financial system does indeed serve most people quite well--at least as far as having checking accounts and basic banking functions available to them.  That's why we haven't seen people clamoring to adopt bitcoin, nor a groundswell of outrage that their debit cards don't work or that it's too costly to send money to others through services like PayPal.  If you're being honest with yourself, you'll admit that's true no matter how much you love bitcoin.

Hmm saying the first part is entirely true or entirely false seems wrong since there are investors that are joining in Bitcoin just because it's a highly speculative asset, and not really because it's a decentralized currency imo. I won't say for certain but I'd reckon there'd be a few traders out there with that kind of mindset. And as for volatility, I think it depends on how you view it? I mean your $1 could potentially turn into a $100 or 0 depending on the market, so saying that people hate it is probably because volatility was in against them, while they'd probably like it if volatility was with them.

While I agree that most users are not ideological decentralization advocates and that if they are coming from first world countries they are more or less decently served by the modern financial system, I highly disagree that these same people dislike price volatility. As a matter of fact, it's probably price volatility itself that brought them into the crypto market. Had Bitcoin's price value remained more or less stable, would these people have ever thought of buying Bitcoin? I don't think so. It was the wild swings that attracted many Bitcoin owners. Many of them could not even explain what Bitcoin really is at the time they entered. They're just attracted by the fact that there could be money in Bitcoin. That's prior to them trying to understand the technology more.

As to the prediction, BTC's volatility is enough that it wouldn't become substantially used as a unit-of-account. BTC may become a significant form of payment but the way BTC fluctuates against fiat, it is hard to just stick to the 1BTC is 1BTC mentality.

What he says is partly true. The volatility is not good however this is why stable coins exist. Sure people in El Salvador are happy when BTC had a crazy rally since it became legal tender however they wouldn’t be too happy if it went the other way.

Imagine getting paid to Do a job in BTC. Then 1 month later it loses 20% value, then the month after another 20%. This obviously is way too volatile for most people, especially those that depend on their pay check. Hence why stable coins are important.

It's more than 2 percent per year, it's 5 percent for USD, 2 percent would be a dream for most folks. 2 percent is the value that the fed aims for, under ideal conditions. And as I'm sure you know, the endless spending the US government is so familiar with does not help the inflation problem.

Loool. You don't even recognize one of the most influential people in crypto in this picture in your haste to dismiss the wholly legitimate arguments he's presenting.  He's right about it too.  The vast majority of crypto "adopters" that have pushed the price so high don't actually care about decentralization.  Rude truth is that the majority of crypto enthusiasts are just FOMOing in trying to get rich.  And it's funny that people bitch about the USD losing 2% per year somehow thing a currency they can't predict the value of tomorrow is somehow better.

That's what I thought  
I'm looking forward to using it as money again but I don't know how long that's going to be or if it will be.

Most users are decently served by the modern financial system currently, doesn't mean that will serve true in the future. It doesn't make much sense to me to use a currency that loses 2-5 percent of it's value every year, nor does it make sense to use a currency that can be closely monitored by the government and restricted on a whim. That's a lot of trust you're willing to give, and while you may trust your government today, it won't always be the case.

Go back to when Lebanon completely restricted access to bank accounts - https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/lebanon-bank-customers-regain-access-up-800-month-2021-06-04/

This absolutely can happen to a major country if you look at the trajectory of their economies and their currencies.

Umm. Is that sarcasm? That's Vitalik, and he's hardly a "no-coiner".

On the other hand, I disagree with his conclusion based on what most users think. I think it overlooks the effects of adoption.

This is really a strong message! Look at the nocoiner standing there, proudly presenting his (her?) findings. I would believe all of it, except for the fact that this guy (girl?) feels the need to create a presentation about it!
If crypto is worth so much attention from all those people who say it can't work, I can only conclude I'm on the right track.

---

---

I guess many people still really believe the "modern financial system" works in their favour. Bankers love that flawed idea!

Then what are you trying to tell or explain in this thread?. You got some point their not all you said is what it seems. You may think like that but there is more to be seen in the naked eye. What about the business man who run their own platform like casinos and sportsbook. Some of the lurkers didn't stay like that for long and I even read some thread where this person is a lurker and later on decided to create his/her account on bitcointalk for further learning and understanding.

Sometimes, this forum thinks that the rest of the world will flock to Bitcoin in droves because of its qualities.

Some people think that every potential user/investor will care about its decentralized features or its high value.

Well, it is not the case.

The people who go to BitcoinTalk are not the average investor: they are interested enough in crypto to make an account here.

It is not the posters you talk to, but the invisible lurkers who may be reading this very post.