Topic: Reasons for being bullish on bitcoin (Read 400 times)

Looking at the timeframe of your estimation, it makes a lot of sense and also have some realistic alignment as to seeing the possibility of Bitcoin arriving at such figure within that space of time but the challenge will lay in the fact that in the next two to three years we should have already be done with the bull run except a change in cycle is experienced or probably a great impact news takes place and gives bitcoin that push even before the next bull run market, it will be very likely that by that time bitcoin must have exhausted its bull push and will be around a range which will not be $500k and waiting for the next push that may eventually take it there.

There was still great uncertainty, though. Now, it's more of a realized, digital asset. The advantages of converting your physical asset into cyberspace feels more realized by the governments, largest companies and trust funds.

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In this post it says that Amazon shareholders request that the board adds bitcoin to the company's treasury: https://x.com/timkotzman/status/1865832907597807992. If that is indeed true, it confirms my theory that Big Tech is highly interested in claiming a large share of the pie.

Yes - I also see the market as very optimistic so far and maybe we will still see the market in a bullish state until the end of next year. I can't yet be as confident about $500K in 2 years as the OP thinks - but there are certainly obvious reasons why that prediction could be said. The more large companies are involved in investing - the better the market conditions will be considering the high demand. It's just that I tend to imagine that the market will probably reverse direction in 2026, although that is not certain.

If more and more companies get involved in investing in bitcoin and make it a reserve asset - then my first expected target is $250K next year. If the trend continues - then there is certainly a chance to expect $500K to be hit.

Many factors affected and limited the last Bull run of 2021
Not excluding the Covid, though pushed the price
It also made the pump short lived
Few institutional investors and China crackdown on Bitcoin mining and trading to mention but a few
Now the big players are rushing in
Everything to them is control and nobody wants to control the least portion.

They would tag along when countries like US and Russia start actively buying Bitcoin
They wouldn't want to be left in the dust, sadly it would be relatively more expensive before they realize
Been cautious isn't bad and resistant to change is the first step to stagnation.

All of the above are, without a doubt, extremely influential in terms of public opinion and can steer the masses in the direction they want. Yet those who are the most powerful in terms of wealth remain in the shadows, and they have been acquiring their wealth for centuries, and to them all these powerful companies are literally little babies.

I am optimistic, because I have been with BTC for ten years and I can say that it has exceeded all my expectations in terms of price and that I did not expect this so quickly, although ten years may be a long period of time for some. The price of $1 million is still a bit too optimistic considering that there are obviously millions of BTC available on the market, and that by the end of this decade, around 1 million BTC will be available for mining.

The question is what the appetites of central banks will actually be if that happens - because some speculation (I assume it's just that) says that the US would invest in around 1 million BTC over a period of 5 years (200 000 BTC per year). Logically, the US is probably the most powerful country in this regard, and there are not too many countries in the world that could follow it in terms of such quantities.

My opinion is that most central banks will remain observers for some time to come, especially the EU Central Bank (ECB), which has a very negative opinion when it comes to Bitcoin. The situation is no better in the UK, which seems to me to be even more conservative than the EU.

1.Ah, yes. The good old "we are anti-government and anti-bank, but we want the government and the banks to pump the Bitcoin price" narrative. To the MOON, crypto bros!
2.The fact that Michael Saylor advised Microsoft to adopt Bitcoin doesn't mean that Microsoft will adopt Bitcoin.
3.The "ETF hype" is pretty much over. We now have "the Trump pump" hype. To be honest, I expect Trump to pump his own Trumpcoin in 2025.
Anyway, I expect the Bitcoin bull run to continue until the end of the 2025 winter and a bear market to occur in the summer of 2025.

A huge change in the price of bitcoin is expected the bull run will actually push the price of bitcoin to a higher level and investors will benefit a lot. But it becomes difficult to understand the exact difference for market ups and downs. But those who survive to the end are more profitable. Market capitalization is the value of all existing coins and demand will increase or decrease as users perceive how it is developing. A growing market capitalization could make bitcoin a more sought-after investment, which would increase the value of bitcoin.

seems $300k to be the most logical ATH for this season here, then there will be retracement in which some people might call "bearish season" but I don't think it will be that much of a bearish, probably price pulled back to $60k and thats it, there's no catalyst that could trigger market crash, everything seems to be going fine, I expect there's no FTX 2.0 basically we've ran out of reasons to dump BTC by 70% which means we might never see such massive dump again, now that even big financial institutions are also accumulating on BTC, will they let the market crash and cause their investors to panic? I don't think so. I do agree that $1m most likely in 2028.

I believe there's a higher chance of reaching the $1M milestone in the next cycle (2028-2029).

Could the current cycle be a supercycle? Perhaps, but I remember people saying in the last cycle it would definitely reach and exceed 100k, but it didn't (FTX selling paper BTC certainly didn't help).

Lots of people thought the 2020-2021 cycle would have been a supercycle due to COVID or even Ukraine later on (early 2022), but it wasn't...

I was probably the first person on this forum to talk about The Great Currency Reset long time ago and I haven't changed my mind on that.

By 2030 everything will be different. We just have to be patient.

I mean, there's nothing above these guys. Central banks, governments and Big Tech are essentially the entities that drive the economy. If this cycle is one competition among who gets to buy the most bitcoin, it could even surpass $1M. But, I do not stand overly optimistic, because it sounds too good to be true. However, inevitably at some point, all of them are going to buy some bitcoin.

You are right though, but one thing you must understand about the white is that they are strict in all their ways and they are not like African leaders who aren't straightforward in all they say, because they make a statement and turned back to do the opposite. Sincerely even though we don't have to be overwhelmed with government trying to join the race about bitcoin we should know that the number 1 person in the country has given his words and that is the reason we are seeing this uncomfortable surge in bitcoin price.

I don't think there'd be a point to argue about this that Investors of this circle bull run will profit more than the previous investors simply because there had come more bitcoin users, more enthusiasts and of course there had surged a high margins of whalers with the different of 4 years past to now and this alone is a potential to valuate the magnitude of bitcoin values to be highly profited by this current bullishness than the pasts.

The fact is that it is and even now we have seen how bitcoin can give something different and we will be in another bull market for the next year and in terms of gains it is also very clear that this year will be very different from 2021. Every period there is definitely progress that bitcoin shows and I think that makes it more interesting for most people to get involved in it.

This is a slightly more realistic number because the move to $100k was also initially considered speculation but bitcoin was able to touch that price. So for $500k we will probably see it later at least in the next two to five years.

At this moment, there is not too much reason not to be optimistic when it comes to the further growth of the BTC price, because behind it are some of the most powerful companies in the world, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, and judging by the pre-election promises of the new US president, it seems that a period is coming in which the price of BTC could surprise even the most optimistic advocates.

We can only speculate about the possible price, and I personally don't dare write a single number because that would be just a guess and nothing more. What I know is that if central banks and large companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Apple or Google start investing in BTC, it will start an avalanche all over the world - and considering the limited amount of BTC in circulation, it may happen that not all of them will manage to buy just as much as they want.

And this is precisely why I doubt about the act passing Congress. If the US buys bitcoin as a reserve currency, that automatically implies the US dollar is worse as reserve currency. Given that Russia and China want to become independent from US, and they'll get rid of their US dollars, they might want to go into bitcoin (Putin has already shown appreciation). The US will eventually store reserves in bitcoin, but they won't relinquish their world reserve currency advantage easily. They'll use everything at their disposal to keep the world under a dollar standard.

But, if the US, China and Russia want to store their reserves in bitcoin, prepare for the wildest cycle.

Once The US accept Bitcoin as their reserve, Bitcoin price will keep rising and rising.

I think the best time to buy Bitcoin is before Trump officially become The US president (January 20, 2025), but with the current price, people would say it's already too high.

Most people buy Bitcoin using centralized exchanges, this mean the government will know their identity since they need to submit KYC. Some people are actually buy Bitcoin in ETFs version, which make the government easier to track the citizen.

In The US, you also need to report your digital assets, not only when you sell it for fiat, but receiving in Bitcoin do count https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/taxpayers-need-to-report-crypto-other-digital-asset-transactions-on-their-tax-return

If these all happened in 2022 or 2023, then I agree it is all about adaption but happening in a halving year which means the core reason must be "reduced supply" which triggered FOMO hence from financial institutions to governments are doing their part. Overall, bitcoin's basic fundamental is the reason. It means these are all expected like people were speculating about bitcoin to be federal reserve for years here.

Another 2x to 4x also possible in my speculation. Because, when USA will be adding bitcoin into their reserve, all other countries will not just watch. And when governments start treating bitcoin similar to gold, people will start their part.

Government is not joining any race with bitcoin. Why do i feel like all these news about the government and politicians developing interest in bitcoin are just to deceive the public. Bitcoin is not government friendly due to it's decentralization which makes it difficult for the government to intrude in people's privacy about how they go about with their money unlike government knows the amount of money individuals have in the bank account and also knows the identity of everyone, bitcoin do no provide those privilege to them. Let us not forget that the government doesn't wade in on what will not be beneficial to them.

As for what OP said about the price reaching $500k in the next two years, everyone can make their individual speculation of the price they feel that bitcoin can get to within a speculated period of time but am more interested in how much of bitcoins i can be able to accumulate and hold before that time of speculation approaches. For me i don't know what the price of bitcoin will be in the next 2 years but after this bull run, a bearish season will appear of which we don't know how long the bear season will last before another bull season. Any prediction i will make now should be in the next cycle which is 4 years from now. However, with the speed at which the price of bitcoin moved with this year, OP your prediction can come true in the next couple of years.

As a man who become full scale investment on bitcoin not just personal but his company have a massive impact on his every statement. Aside from those negative talks, his investment in bitcoin has sky rocketed since day one, and no, he just stacking in every possible way. So if this man talks to someone about his bitcoin investment, you will probably get at some point to realize that it's worth to risk.

$500k within the next few years, let's see in on how many amongst us are going to be added to the retired folks thanks to Bitcoin.

This is a long game for everybody. Cathie Wood even says a million on 2030 and that's around 5 years from now and even more than a million. So, that's another cycle that we have to wait and so with the $500k going within two years and that's not even going to be in a bull run.

That seriously tells that there's already a lot of things that have changed to the cyclic move of Bitcoin but in a very positive way.

I think Michael Saylor has had a MASSIVE input into opening peoples eyes as to
what Bitcoin can offer.

For me it started with the analogy he used with the "Block of ice melting in your
back yard".

His recent presentation to Microsoft is a massive foot forward, besides the fact
that they only allowed him 3 minutes, they agreed to it is brilliant.

Its only a matter of time before there is widespread understanding of Bitcoins
benefits which MS has been openly preaching for everyone to benefit from.

As he says himself, Big Tech, Governments, Companies, Families and Individuals
can all benefit by adopting the Bitcoin Standard

I feel like the game changes now. I remind you that in the previous cycle, we only had Michael Saylor realizing the game, while we had plenty of opponents. Now, we have pretty much the richest people in the world being involved, with one way or another. Now governments, the enemy, want to join.

I'm just curious on whether the Bitcoin act actually passes the US Congress. If it does, I'd be very bullish, not for the less coins circulating that could cause a supply shock, but for the fact that the Fed allowed it. This would be a clear sign that there's more money incoming. If the act passes Congress, I believe $500k is possible. If for some reason it does not, your prediction seems more realistic than mine.

Bitcoin is truly amazing and we all know that. It's gaining value each day and in this bull run Bitcoin is already over $100k in value and there's chance that it might goes way more than that. I don't know either in two years it will be able to achieve that $500k mark but if it does then I will be really happy to see something like that.

I agree with your speculations and with these big boys in the bitcoin game, anything is possible for us to see bitcoin price surge to 500k. But it's just speculations and no one knows the exact time that bitcoin will reach 500k just like we never expected to see 100k so soon. Bitcoin may reach that price or not but I believe that with the government and big firms buying bitcoin, the price will easily get to 500k than when they are not involved. This is a super circle for bitcoin based on what you wrote in the OP.

All are valid reasons that can make the price of Bitcoin surge hight in the future but I think two year is a bit small for Bitcoin price to reach $500k. Despite having all these reason, we can not also foresee how other negative events could come up and make the price of Bitcoin not to experience huge price movement.

in 4 years I think we will reach $800k - $1M, growth gonna be exponential since the big countries are taking lead and the smaller countries will follow.
if strategic bitcoin reserve is real, any country in this entire world will follow path and therefore it will be an obvious sign of adoption boom which gonna increase demand significantly.

right now BTC just hit $102k and successfully get rid of supply wall at $100k, and guess what BTC to $130k gonna be smooth sailing because the retailer who shorted the market whenever it hits $99k are gonna be liquidated and there will be no BTC to sell left.



just feeling so bullish right now.

Every year there is progress taking place with bitcoin. And within this year, adoption from financial institutions have been growing and increasing, which would lead to bigger chances that we will end this year having a mainstream with bitcoin. And for that, the bull run is more guaranteed, which will pave way for bitcoin to reach another all time high before this year ends.

I am not surprised with this. Every cycle is different and it's true that this might be a different cycle and bigger than 2021. Although for $500k, that's expected that we will be there even so $1M. If people are seeing the worth of Bitcoin right now, there won't be any complain but a silent accumulation and see why the biggies are doing it right now. MSTR is doing it and the other capital ventures and asset and portfolio companies are doing it. These companies are for the money and that's why wherever it is, there go they are as well.

Even though this is just mere speculation, but it is achievable because if a suit sayer had told me that the price of bitcoin will skyrocket so speedily before the United States elections, i would have doubted it but just take a look at the price now and like a couple of months ago you will understand that bitcoin can even skyrocket five times of what the price is today in 2 years' time. Many people are still expecting a bearish season after 2025, but we may likely witness further bull run if bitcoin's strategy reserve is implemented by the incoming administration of Donald Trump, and other positive news that will cause the price to continue being bullish.

The bottom of the previous cycle was 3k in Dec 2018 and 4k in March 2020 (COVID black swan). That's 17-23x.

15k (Nov-Dec 2022) -> 130-180k (Nov-Dec 2025)

That's not 2x... more like 9-12x. Diminishing returns, but still good enough.

As always: you have to buy the dip to maximize profits, so mark your calendars (Nov-Dec 2026).

Dedollarization will happen after China's invasion in Taiwan (expected by 2027 at the latest).

The collective West will impose sanctions on China (Russia No2) -> Made in China products banned + no more 3nm chips from TSMC -> hyperinflation will kick in + nVidia/AMD/Apple stocks will melt up -> CBDC is introduced to kickstart the economy

Then you can expect BRICs to officially announce the adoption of BTC as a global reserve currency to settle international trade. Russia still has 300 billion of assets frozen. China could have up to 2 trillion $.

Fun fact: our beloved Trump isn't very keen on the idea of dedollarization led by BRICs, even though he knows who are the suckers that back the dollar.

It's 5x from where we are now. Remember that in the previous bull run, when it crossed $10,000 in summer 2020, it reached $68,000 about a year later. That's 6.8x, and that's if we accept that the bull market started in $10,000.  (It was going pretty well even before that.)

Hmm... Let's see. You're bearish this time, as far as I can tell. 180k is less than 2x. I wouldn't even call that a bull market.

In 2 years from now (late 2026 - early 2027) we'll experience a new bear market due to Taiwan (Ukraine No2) and possibly yet another CEX failure (FTX No2, although Proof of Reserves is meant to prevent Ponzi schemes like that).

Nov-Dec 2025 should be the top of this cycle (130-180k).

Bookmark this post for future reference.

This is absolutely correct because government wanting to join the race, though they had been against bitcoin progress and wanting it the other way to have a total control, but they couldn't end the fight on the right way therefore they had no option to join race to start holding large some of bitcoin on their portfolio.
Your predictions is not bad as I think the market might likely hit $250k by this bull run comes next year and there is every possibility that couples of years we might likely see the price hit what you said, maybe who knows if it would happen next as the market is unpredictable.

Of course we are doing much better in gains than 2021 and I agree with the said reason but you prediction seems overwhelming and I think it's too much of an expectation from bitcoin.

Perhaps predictions are always backed with reasons why you think it would go as you expect, but I haven't seen a good reason to expect bitcoin to reach or hit anything close to 500kish price.

With governments getting involved it gives an edge to expect another bull market and if I'm to be more realistic I think expecting 150kish or 200kish price is more realistic in 2 years compared to 500k as you predicted.

I just want to write down the reasons why I think we'll experience another bull market. If you compare it with previous history, I think that we might experience ever larger gains than those in 2021.

- Governments, now apparently, want to be involved. Specifically, they want to hold reserves[1][2].
- I predict that the Big Tech will follow. Recently, Michael Saylor advised Microsoft to switch into a Bitcoin standard. In 3 minutes, he compressed all the reasons why it makes sense for Microsoft to convert their capital into bitcoin[3]. I'd bet that Big Tech officials already stack sats in secret.
- We now have ETF. BlackRock is involved.

That's it.

My prediction is that we might reach $500k as a top within the next two years.

[1] https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/senate-bill/4912/text
[2] https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/just-in-swiss-law-maker-says-switzerland-needs-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve-5521344
[3] https://x.com/saylor/status/1863323760511627565