Topic: Recession in the US in 2024/2025 - What will Bitcoin price do? (Read 203 times)
Here are two charts showing the dilemma. While BTC looks cheap. The S&P looks expensive. If the S&P plummets, there might be better prices coming for BTC. For the medium to long term I think long BTC is excellent. I am more thinking aobut the ~6 month short term.
October 18, 2024, 05:36:41 PM
Anybody shorting Bitcoin right now practically hates money. This week, even Blackrock has purchased over $2B worth of Bitcoin for their ETF and I believe that's only the beginning for what's to come. I know majority of the macro news pushing bitcoin right now is the potential pricing in the November 2024 elections. If you're still on the fence, you need to start scaling in on dips. The recession (if we're already in it), will take several months to actualize. That's plenty of money just sitting on the table that you'd miss out on if you're sidelined for the entire run-up.
October 17, 2024, 09:12:20 PM
What you have to do is invest for the long term instead of buying and selling trying to figure out if the price is going to go up or down. It doesn't matter if a recession comes, if it comes and you buy premium assets doing DCA what you will be doing is buying cheap. Then, when we come out of the recession you will see the fruits of those purchases.
Accumulating bitcoin with time, with DCA strategy, for years has been proven as very good investment strategy, from mental to profit for investment portfolio.When recession confirms, people will be panic and price will dump but it will give intelligent Bitcoin investors very great opportunities to accumulate more. It's not time for weak investors to join the party especially people who don't invest with their pocket money. Price can be wildly change up and down for a while before Bitcoin returns to its bullish mode.
It's kind of black swan event and how Bitcoin performs after WHO announcement on Pandemic Covid-19 can be a latest example for it. It will be nightmare for many people but also be great opportunities for others.
October 17, 2024, 09:57:14 AM
What you have to do is invest for the long term instead of buying and selling trying to figure out if the price is going to go up or down. It doesn't matter if a recession comes, if it comes and you buy premium assets doing DCA what you will be doing is buying cheap. Then, when we come out of the recession you will see the fruits of those purchases.
October 17, 2024, 09:24:16 AM
Quote from: Statility
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession.
You can go ahead and invest in bitcoin, if that is your choice because the price of bitcoin will not stop in this current price, and it still have the capacity to go higher in future until investors begin to see $100k. I don't think economy recession will affect bitcoin price because bitcoin is not control by the government, can you still flash back to what happened in the pandemic that made bitcoin price not to be affected when other commodities and fiat where affected. 
October 17, 2024, 08:31:25 AM
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession.
I don't know that guy but if you want to invest in Bitcoin, you consolidate all of the knowledge that you've acquired from all of these influencers and make sure that you understand them before buying. That's what you should be doing and do not rely your decisions to any of them, they're influencers and all they make is content that will benefit them and they won't care if you're going to have a good run with your portfolio or the shilling that they're doing out of their contents. And that's the first rule of investing, know what you're investing and so as with Bitcoin.In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Not me. We're just seeing the move of the bull run and isn't it that the recession did happened since the pandemic? that's why we've seen left and right printing of money. And that stimulus to everyone has made the inflation higher but on the other side, Bitcoin has reached ATHs after ATHs and thanks to the recession. Why would you short Bitcoin when the bull is just in the midst of it and don't show any signs that it's falling back? 
October 17, 2024, 07:58:23 AM
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession. In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Recessions are always closely related to a decline in performance in investment instruments. Because usually people's purchasing power is also in a declining condition due to unbalanced income and expenditure. Many things also happened due to widespread layoffs in various companies which caused unemployment to increase rapidly. But for now I see that we will be able to get through the current economic crisis quite well. Unless the scale of war expands and has a greater impact on the global economy. And in relation to bitcoin, I don't think this investment instrument will be too strongly affected. Maybe the impact will only be when we expect Bitcoin to reach 100k, so because of the recession, perhaps the increase will not be as strong in this period and may only increase to around 85k or less or more. As long as a country can maintain inflation levels at a fairly safe level, a recession should be avoided or passed quickly. 
October 17, 2024, 07:52:18 AM
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession. In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Though bitcoin wasn't in existence as at the time of the 2008 recession events but like the global pandemic COVID-19 which ravaged the globe in 2020 has shown that bitcoin could survive even in recession as this that some so-called professional are predicting. And it's common during a period of economic recess that people tend to look elsewhere where they can hedge their fiat to retain value of their funds and am sure quite a good number of persons in the world will go the bitcoin way, and that will invariably order than plummeting rather skyrocket the price of bitcoin under such condition. Furthermore, need not be to sit on the fence, and don't go buying short, be a hodler as that's how to make the best of it in uncertain times as this.The COVID pandemic has caused the economy to almost completely shut down and in order to sustain the economy and people's lives, the government is forced to print money and pump it into the economy. Meanwhile, that wouldn't happen in a recession, there wouldn't be any money being pumped into the economy. So it would be incorrect to say that bitcoin will do well if there is a recession.
Do you remember what happened after the covid pandemic? Inflation peaked, war broke out and we also saw that bitcoin could not fulfill its role as an inflation hedge at that time as it lost more than 70% of its value. Not to mention, every time a war breaks out, it gets dumped, which shows that it is still not the inflation hedge we hoped for.
Bitcoin is still considered a high risk asset, not a hedge against inflation so I think the opposite. Bitcoin is more likely to dump than appreciate if a recession occurs.
October 17, 2024, 06:34:12 AM
Shorting bitcoin is still the stupidest thin anybody can do in my opinion.
But at the same time I would hesitate making major investments in bitcoin if the recession gets worse. US and EU are already in a recession that is slowly growing.
We know about the recession globally and governments only are trying to hide this fact but it won't last forever and I agree that before any big announcement from the USA and big countries like in G7 that they are in crisis, risk to invest in Bitcoin in short term is high. Like pandemic Covid-19, we knew it happened but when WHO announced it, panic mode appeared in all markets.But at the same time I would hesitate making major investments in bitcoin if the recession gets worse. US and EU are already in a recession that is slowly growing.
Quote
But here is the thing in the short term (meaning following months): due to the upcoming election in the US they are faking a lot of things and until then, with the recent rate cuts and increasing inflation we are going to see positive things in bitcoin market. They even brought the oil price down by market manipulation.
After the election, things could be very different though. This fakery can not continue indefinitely.
This means Bitcoin will again be on track of rising because people will see that they have no other best chances to store their wealth and invest their capita for profit, than Bitcoin. Fiat currencies are plummeting in their purchasing powers and it won't stop when central banks are tirelessly printing more money.After the election, things could be very different though. This fakery can not continue indefinitely.
Bitcoin & Traditional Assets ROI (vs USD). No better things for wealth storage and investment than Bitcoin if people can accept risk to take opportunity.
October 17, 2024, 06:24:24 AM
Shorting bitcoin is still the stupidest thin anybody can do in my opinion.
But at the same time I would hesitate making major investments in bitcoin if the recession gets worse. US and EU are already in a recession that is slowly growing.
But here is the thing in the short term (meaning following months): due to the upcoming election in the US they are faking a lot of things and until then, with the recent rate cuts and increasing inflation we are going to see positive things in bitcoin market. They even brought the oil price down by market manipulation.
After the election, things could be very different though. This fakery can not continue indefinitely.
But at the same time I would hesitate making major investments in bitcoin if the recession gets worse. US and EU are already in a recession that is slowly growing.
But here is the thing in the short term (meaning following months): due to the upcoming election in the US they are faking a lot of things and until then, with the recent rate cuts and increasing inflation we are going to see positive things in bitcoin market. They even brought the oil price down by market manipulation.
After the election, things could be very different though. This fakery can not continue indefinitely.
October 16, 2024, 05:18:55 AM
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession. In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Though bitcoin wasn't in existence as at the time of the 2008 recession events but like the global pandemic COVID-19 which ravaged the globe in 2020 has shown that bitcoin could survive even in recession as this that some so-called professional are predicting. And it's common during a period of economic recess that people tend to look elsewhere where they can hedge their fiat to retain value of their funds and am sure quite a good number of persons in the world will go the bitcoin way, and that will invariably order than plummeting rather skyrocket the price of bitcoin under such condition. Furthermore, need not be to sit on the fence, and don't go buying short, be a hodler as that's how to make the best of it in uncertain times as this. October 16, 2024, 02:03:28 AM
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession. In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Recessions are happening globally, not only in a single nation, not only in the USA. You will read news somewhere at some nations that there are technical recessions but it is only a softening news shill by governments and central banks to make things better than what actually happens.Bitcoin was created during very bad economic time 15 years ago and if such times come again in 2024, 2025 or in future, Bitcoin will continue moving and growing like how it did since 2009.
The Times 03 Jan 2009: Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks
It is the message in Bitcoin Genesis Block.
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Genesis_block
-snip-
Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Hesitant? I don’t think it’s a big deal right now or for the foreseeable future. Recessions are about the economy and fiat currencies. I don’t care what the pundits say that they can’t prove.Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
The hedge against Bitcoin is enough to convince me that investing in Bitcoin for the long term is a smart investment that can save you a lot of hard work.
If you are realistic and backed by historical data, I’m sure you won’t care what the pundits say who are also secretly investing in Bitcoin.
Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Recession has to do with economy and fiat. Expect bitcoin not to be affected. Although I do not also know if what you are saying is true but I did not hear anything about something like this on the news. Also know that if you want to short bitcoin, it is better not to do it now when the market sentiment for bitcoin is favoring the bulls. Or you can just use low leverage like 1x. But if you are not a day trader but a swing trader, it is not advisable to short bitcoin right now.
The resistance can be seen at $65000 but bitcoin is not also falling below $60000.
Hard to not think of Bitcoin as not affected by the economy though, when every recession that has hit stocks also hits Bitcoin. I also used to think Bitcoin was the safe haven and everybody stored their wealth in it, so it makes sense BTC is up when everything's down.
But normal holders like us all, if we're suffering in a recession, we're selling our BTC too. For sure we get more value other than fiat, but we're still selling to make up for lost money.
Yesterday I see people saying not lower than 55k. Now not lower than 60k. But why not? Won't you sell also if you needed cash?
I never heard of Jeffrey Gundlach before but now as I searched him I did not found him to be highly optimistic about crypto and I think that's a good thing because without proving logic behind the predictions and statements, they are useless so you said you follow whim and he suggests we are already in a recession, so if you don't mind, can you point me towards source where he said that just to listen all of his words.
Sure, I would suggest following him. Here's one of his latest interviews where he talks about the recession indicators blinking red. If you listen to 1min from the where this youtube video starts at 1:48 you'll hear it: https://youtu.be/SyM5rNxIeXs?t=108
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession. In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
If a 2008 style recession/crash happens btc will surely be going down along with stocks and real estate. It doesn’t take much smarts to see this especially when bitcoin’s movements has been correlated with the Nasdaq for years now.
Bitcoin is acting like a tech stock with a trillion dollar market cap. Some people somewhere are using btc to buy stuff too but the majority trade it like it is just another mega cap stock.
Shorting it however is not the best practice. I don’t like to short anything because I know the markets can stay irrational for a long time and my liquidity won’t last. Who am I to short the markets while funds with a billion-dollar market cap are losing their panties?
If stocks are going to go down, expect BTC to go down. As much as we want it to be a 'safe haven', it probably isn't yet.
I'm guessing gold > BTC in a real recession. I hope I'm wrong, though.
I'm guessing gold > BTC in a real recession. I hope I'm wrong, though.
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession. In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
I never heard of Jeffrey Gundlach before but now as I searched him I did not found him to be highly optimistic about crypto and I think that's a good thing because without proving logic behind the predictions and statements, they are useless so you said you follow whim and he suggests we are already in a recession, so if you don't mind, can you point me towards source where he said that just to listen all of his words.My take on this point is we are not in a recession because in 2008 it was a global recession but now not most of the countries are facing recession but a few. Tier 1 countries are not anywhere near to recession but ongoing instability is due to credits and loans and in 2008 if I am not wrong, the main cause was prime mortgages, and there was no flow of liquidity overall People did not have money to pay and now, if fiat is useless (which it is not globally), then we can use crypto in its place and can safe ourself but the impact of fiat's instability on crypto will be high as well.
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession. In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Did you see what Bitcoin did during the lock down? the pandemic era in 2020? And up to know we have been feeling the effect of covid-19 and yet during that time, not only did Bitcoin survived, but we did have a new all time high in 2021. So not sure what are questioning Bitcoin as we have passed the worst time in human history 4 years ago. And for sure, many might have the sentiments that you are thinking, but still Bitcoin has showed resiliency many times already that I doubt that it will fail us this bull run despite the recession and the noise of war in the background, in my opinion. 
Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
Recession has to do with economy and fiat. Expect bitcoin not to be affected. Although I do not also know if what you are saying is true but I did not hear anything about something like this on the news. Also know that if you want to short bitcoin, it is better not to do it now when the market sentiment for bitcoin is favoring the bulls. Or you can just use low leverage like 1x. But if you are not a day trader but a swing trader, it is not advisable to short bitcoin right now.
The resistance can be seen at $65000 but bitcoin is not also falling below $60000.
I’m on the fence about investing in Bitcoin right now because many macroeconomic experts I follow, like Jeffrey Gundlach, suggest we might already be in a recession. In recessions, stock markets typically plummet. Since Bitcoin didn’t exist before the 2008 recession, we don’t really know how it will perform during one, especially in terms of price. Is anyone else on the fence or shorting Bitcoin at the moment?
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