Topic: Red Cards in Football and what they do to the odds and the outcome (Read 650 times)

Not a lot of red cards in general (none in FRA1 and NED1 since last post even) and only 4 before halftime.

Sheffield Utd - Newcastle
Red Card: Newcastle in 45th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-0

Sheffield got their first win this season with this red card for Newcastle. It needed a penalty for them to score, but a win is a win. Odds probably weren't great considering the pre-match odds.

Fulham - Chelsea
Red Card: Fulham in 44th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-1

Chelsea were already huge pre-match favourites, so the odds were super low after the red card, but they managed to win. Took them until 78th minute to score the lead though...

Juventus - Sassuolo
Red Card: Sassuolo in 45th+2 minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

Another one with very small odds and Sassuolo would have given us a good scare, because they managed to equalize being one man down and Juve only scored the lead again in 82nd minute.

Torino - Spezia
Red Card: Spezia in 8th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Torino were solid pre-match favourites, but failed to take advantage of this very early red card.

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Despite going 3-1 you would most likely have gone breakeven only, because of poor odds. On top of that you were in acute danger of mutliple heart attacks with Juve/Chelsea doing so poor even one man up.

I will put this on break for the time being, until I find a new angle to tackle games with red cards.

There were not that many red cards since the last update and even fewer that match our criteria. And those that did weren't very "good" for our test.

Benevento - Milan
Red Card: Milan in 33rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-2

Milan held onto the lead and even scored another one shortly after halftime. Benevento had a missed penalty, but this would only have been the 1-2. If they didn't miss, this could have maybe won, but it didn't^^

Osasuna - Alaves
Red Card: Osasuna in 8th (!) minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-1

Such an early red card and Alaves couldn't take advantage of it. Osasuna even scored the lead, which Alaves could only equalize with a penalty.

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So we are now at 7-5 Probably the other way round is more profitable

Time for a little update, with all these midweek games and breaks, it's a bit hard to keep up with things

Juventus - Fiorentina
Red Card: Juventus in 18th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

Odds must have been quite good for Fiorentina to hold on to the lead - Juventus was ~1.35 pre-match -  and they sealed the win with two more goals later in the game.

Monaco - St. Etienne
Red Card: Monaco in 35th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 2-2

Hmm, Monaco scored the equalizer right after halftime and then defended this result till the end, not good.

Aston Villa - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Aston Villa in 45th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 3-0

And another loss If I would have followed this game, I surely would have placed a bet against Villa, since this is normally a very good spot. Glad I didn't follow, saved some money.

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7-3 since I started concentrating on the first half red cards. With odds being generally low-ish, I think this would have resulted in an overall loss so far. But lets keep on observing things.

Some games to catch up

Roma - Torino
Red Card: Torino in 14th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

After this early red card, there could be only one winner. Roma was already huge odds-favourite going into the game, so after the red card, the odds must have been ultra low (didn't check). Nevertheless another "win".

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Osasuna - Villareal
Red Card: Osasuna in 19th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 1-3

I took my chances here, but the odds were pretty poor tbh and I sweated a bit after Osasuna made it 1-2 with 20min to go.

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Brighton - Sheffield Utd
Red Card: Sheffield in 40th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-1

This is iirc the first time, where it did go wrong. And I lost money, since I got involved for what I thought an ok-ish 1.55 (pre-match they were 1.9x). But Sheffield was able to score the lead in second half then and Brighton was only able to equalize late. You can't win them all and if this doesn't happen all too often, I am still hopeful

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West Brom - Aston Villa
Red Card: West Brom in 36th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

Didn't check the odds after the red card, but I guess they were around 1.15 maybe. Villa took some time to seal the game (84th and 88th minute), but another win.

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This Brighton loss made me doubt things a bit and with Roma, Villareal and Villa being super low after the red cards, this would have been a loss overall.

There were no red cards in first half on the weekend, but in the midweek games we had 3 of them so far and every time the strategy would have worked.

Real Madrid - Athletic Bilbao
Red Card: Bilbao in 13th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 3-1

Odds were probably not good for Real after the red card considering they were already 1.6x pre-match fav, but in the end Real won. Bilbao managed to equalize one man down though....not good for your heart

Monaco - Lens
Red Card: Monaco in 23rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-3

This is probably not super interesting, since Lens was already leading when the red card occured, but would have won easily.

Stade Rennais - Olympique Marseille
Red Card: Marseille in 36th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 2-1

Here I actually got involved and played 1X at halftime, because I thought this is a good spot - the best spot imo; i.e. the first half red-carded away team leading. After the 1-1 in 63rd minute, Marseille was @10+ then and you could easily hedge if you wanted.

Quite some interesting red cards this weekend, to shed more light into this enigma.

England

West Brom - Crystal Palace
Red Card: West Brom in 34th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-5

First half red card = back the team one man up to win/equalize. It worked again, Crystal Palace totally dominated the second half, scoring 4 unanswered.

Spain

Levante - Getafe
Red Card: Getafe in 7th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 3-0

This one was in first half as well, but Levante was already leading, taking nicely advantage as the game went on and securing an easy win. Getafe got another red card in 77th minute, when it was 3-0. Pretty unusual setup all in all, so something to forget fast.

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Alaves - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Alaves in 60th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Second half red card = lay next goal for the team one man up. Worked here as well, Alaves were able to defend the result until the final whistle.

Italy

Roma - Sassuolo
Red Card: Roma in 41st minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

This time this strategy (Sassuolo win) wouldn't have worked, but it can't work every time, we are just looking for value.

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Crotone - Napoli
Red Card: Crotone in 50th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 0-4

Lay next goal strategy would have failed here as well. There is of course a huge difference in quality between these teams and Napoli is a good counter-attack team, but difficult to spot/decide when to better not use this strategy^^

Germany

Hertha - Union
Red Card: Union in 23rd minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 3-1

First half red card strategy striked again and I actually took advantage of my observations in this game, netting me a nice profit.

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Going forward I will concentrate on the first half red cards and check that strategy each round. To get a bigger sample size faster, I will add FRA1 and NED1.
The lay next goal strategy I will leave aside, since I don't think there is that much value and it's very hard to get it right, i.e. when to use it and more importantly when not

Red card will definitely have impact on a match if either team works harder, re-strategize, doesn't work harder or doesn't re-strategize

The team down by one player would usually go on defensive, depending on the position of the red carded player though.
With my little understanding of football/soccer, I would use more players that can defend & attack if my better/best striker is red-carded. Or I'll strengthen my defense with more defenders if my better/best defender is red carded.

Another rather boring weekend in terms of red cards. With this small sample size I did actually get a better feel by now and was able to take advantange of my observations in a game not mentioned here. I wanted to lay Elche to win at HT as well, but then got distracted and by the time I got back to the game, Cadiz already had scored the equalizer. Too bad.

These second half red cards are still hard to figure out properly (laying next goal does work imo, but it's risky and you would have to hedge); the red cards in first half are "easy", only problem is, that they don't come by very often

England

No red cards this round.

Spain

Elche - Cadiz
Red Card: Elche in 45+4th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

This is one game from the lesson we learned ealier this thread and it would have worked out again. Elche were around 2.00 to win at halftime and as expected they weren't able to hold on to that lead and Cadiz scored the equalizer in second half.

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Celta Vigo - Granada
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 98th minute, score 3-1
Final Score: 3-1

Late red card, no impact.

Italy

Benevento - Juventus
Red Card: Juventus in 97th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

Late red card, no impact.

Germany

Wolfsburg - Bremen
Red Card: Bremen in 80th minute, score 4-3
Final Score: 5-3

Kind of expected for Wolfsburg to score another goal, when Bremen was pushing to score the 4-4, but it took until 95th minute. So this is not a red one to me.

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Mainz - Hoffenheim
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 80th minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

10+ minutes are really short to have any impact, because a red card at this late stage doesn't change a lot. The red-carded team will just park the bus for some minutes with 10 players and it's not easy for any team to score then. This could be green.

Good weekend for the red-carded teams. The lay next goal strategy would have worked very well. There were no red cards in first half, so we couldn't underline the lesson we learned two weeks ago.

England

Aston Villa - Brighton
Red Card: Brighton in 91st minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-2

Late red card, no impact.

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Leeds - Arsenal
Red Card: Arsenal in 51st minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Arsenal did very well with one man down and should maybe even be a bit disappointed with not getting all 3 points - the chances were there. But they were at least not conceding, which would have resulted in a profit in this one.

Spain

Eibar - Getafe
Red Card: Eibar in 88th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Late red card, no impact.

Italy

Udinese - Genoa
Red Card: Genoa in 97th minute, score 1-0
Final Score 1-0

Late red card, no impact.

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Napoli - Milan
Red Card: Napoli in 65th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-3

Napoli defended the 1-2 quite successful until 95th minute, when Milan scored the 1-3 in the end, which is kind of expected then (if Napoli isn't able to make it 2-2^^). Laying next goal Milan would have been a good bet, but this doesn't go green neither red.

Germany

Mönchengladbach - Augsburg
Red Card: Augsburg in 66th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

Augsburg was able to score the equalizer as huge pre-match underdog and being one man down. The goal itself was a bit lucky, but doesn't matter, this would have been a super valuable spot.

Teams can also substitute players to take advantage of the other team getting a red card. Such as a defender getting a red card, then the other team might put in a midfielder or winger to further frustrate them. But a trend I noticed in the matches you listed, is that the red carded team is the one substituting like crazy instead. See for example Cagliari - Sampdoria and Alaves - Barcelona. This can’t be applied to Premier League games because those don’t have as many substitutions per game as other leagues.

Pretty uneventful weekend overall.

England

Everyone behaved well over the weekend, no red cards.

Spain

Barcelona - Betis
Red Card: Betis in 60th minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 5-2

The red card resulted in a penalty to make it 3-1 and Betis actually was the next to score then. Lay Barca next goal would have worked, though you must be very brave to actually place such a bet in such a game. But there are these people, so I'll make this green^^

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Real Sociedad - Granada
Red Card: Real Sociedad in 86th minute, score 2-0
Final Score: 2-0

Red card came late, when game was decided, so uninteresting.

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Levante - Alaves
Red Card: Alaves in 34th minute, score 0-1
Final Score: 1-1

One should maybe bet on red card in games with Alaves - in 4 of their last 5 games there was one^^ Levante scored the equalizer in second half, but nothing more then. Another example where a red card in first half is too much of a disadvantage. So lesson #1 learned from this thread: Always bet against a team, that gets a red card in first half.

Italy

Cagliari - Sampdoria
Red Card: Sampdoria in 40th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 2-0

Cagliari nicely took advantage, see the lesson from above

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Torino - Crotona
Red Card: Crotone in 87th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 0-0

Late red card again and it's not hard to defend a 0-0 for some minutes even with one man down.

Germany

No red cards this round.

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International break now and we will be back in 2 weeks and see, if there are some more lessons to be learned.

Yesterday's match when Barca was held by Alaves draw even though the opposing player got a red card in the 60th minute, for some reason Barca's game did not improve even though playing with the team that was hit by the red card, in the remaining 40 minutes of the match Barcelona was only able to score one goal through Griezman's shot. Lately, there have been many bad results obtained by Barcelona after losing to Real Madrid in the El Clasico match. Not to mention that there is a bankruptcy issue that befell Barcelona if there is no reduction in player salaries, it is predicted that in 2021 Barca will go bankrupt.

Busy times for the refs this week and a lot of players will have some rest next weekend.

England

Wolverhampton - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Crystal Palace in 86th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Too late to have any impact.

Spain

Loads of red cards in Spain this round

Alaves - Barca
Red Card: Alaves in 62nd minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-1

Equalizer for Barca came instantly after the red card. Would have been interesting to see the odds after 1-1 and then maybe laying Barca next goal. Did anyone watch the markets and saw the odds ?

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Celta Vigo - Real Sociedad
Red Card: Celta Vigo in 93rd minute, score 1-4
Final Score: 1-4

Late red card, no impact and game was decided already.

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Granada - Levante:
Red Card: Granada in 16th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 1-1

Very early red card and Leveante took advantage of it and made it 1-1 in first half then already. But after that, Granada successfully defended the draw. From my observations there is really a huge difference, if you get the red card in first or second half. Iirc there was no team able to defend the result with a red card in first half. But at least Granada kept a clean sheet for 56+ minutes after the 1-1.

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Valencia - Getafe
Red Card(s): Valencia in 56th minute, score 1-0 and Getafe in 98th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 2-2

Now this is an interesting one Getafe took advantage and scored two to turn the game around, though only in 87th and 94th minute. They then got a red card themselves and Valencia scored the 2-2 via penalty in 100th minute, lol. Not sure if this penalty was caused by the red card, but such games are a traders dream. Though not very interesting for this "study", since this game was so unique and you won't find anything like that again in the next 500 games.

Italy

Roma - Fiorentina
Red Card: Fiorentina in 88th minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

Nothing to report here.

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Verona - Benevento
Red Card: Benevento in 73rd minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 3-1

This is a scenario we had quite often already. The favourite and/or home team takes advantage of the strength in numbers and scores another goal, while the red-carded team pushes being one goal down.

Germany

Hoffenheim - Union Berlin
Red Card: Hoffenheim in 58th minute, score 0-0
Final Score: 1-3

The only green one for this weekend. The red card resulted in a penalty for Union and laying them to score the next goal would have resulted in a profit (as would have laying them to win and then hedge), since Hoffenheim scored the equalizer in 80th minute. Union went on to win the game with two late goals, but we would have been out of the markets by then already

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Another bad week for our red-carded teams. I more and more think, that it's really not worth to do any bets in favour of the red-carded teams. But otoh I also think it's not worth to back the other team, since the odds are often poor-ish. Maybe the markets in these games are already kind of perfect and there is no value to be found

Well. the difference between Barca and Ferencvaros is so huge, you will find something similar only in domestic cup games Barca could also beat them playing with only 9 players for 90min I guess.

I have no idea what this thread will lead to; if I will be able to find any pattern or angle to extract some profits out of the games with red cards. Every game and every league is unique and I chose the four biggest leagues to start this journey and monitor things to get a better feel. These teams in these leagues are quite competitive (well, Schalke ) and well known, so you a) get a good picture in general and b) it's easier for other users to follow.

But the sample size is still so tiny, that for the moment I am still just collecting data and not make any assumptions. Laying next goal for the not-red-carded team could be valuable I think, but you would have to take profits on the run, i.e. hedge inplay. It can take some time in the game until the advantage of having one player more finally works out, but super hard to get it right with hedging. So lay next goal, hedge a bit after 10min, a bit more after 10min etc. could work. Doing something in the 1X2 market doesn't look too promising from what I saw until now, some side markets are a better approach maybe.

And once there is some confidence and pattern in these 4 leagues, I might look for CL, EL, lower leagues etc. But thats a long way to go

You can include the red cards from UEFA Champions League games to see how red cards bring down bigger teams playing against each other.

Up to now, there was only one red card obtained in this season's UEFA match, it was in Barcelona vs Ferencvaros on matchday 1. Barca got the red card at the 68 minute mark but by then the match was already 3-0, Ferencvaros couldn't score any goals even with a crippled Barca team, except for the penalty they got at 70 minutes. (many, many yellow cards for Ferencvaros though  )

Barcelona actually scored two more goals after the red card. Crazy right? But that's understandable because it was a defender who was taken out of the game, their attack was untouched.

Another boring weekend with basically no new insights

England

Southampton - Everton
Red Card: Everton in 72nd minute, score 2-0
Final score: 2-0

I watched that game and Southampton was happy with just defending the score and Everton was pathetic the whole game anyway.

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Fulham - Crystal Palace
Red Card: Fulham in 88th minute, score 0-2
Final Score: 1-2

Late red card and normally nothing happens then anymore with the game decided, but Fulham actually scored a goal one man down in 95th minute.

Spain

Valladolid - Alaves
Red Card: Valladolid in 21st minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-2

Alaves took advantage nicely of the early red card. Such an early red card is really brutal for any team. I actually took a screenshot of the next goal market at halftime:


Source: https://orbitexch.com/

So around 1.75 for Alaves to not score the next goal.

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Atletico Madrid - Betis
Red Card: Betis in 74th minute, score 1-0
Final score: 2-0

This is a typical example of what you can expect; Betis pushed for the equalizer and ran into a counter-attack.

Italy

Cagliari - Crotone
Red card: Crotone in 48th minute, score 3-2
Final score: 4-2

Similar to Atletico game. Didn't watch it, but Crotone was probably looking to defend the 2-3 for the time being to stay in the game as long as possible and start pushing only in the last ~10 minutes. Cagliari scored the deciding 4-2 in 84th minute then. Laying next goal Cagliari would have resulted in some trading profit, but I wouldn't want to make this one green.

Germany

Leipzig - Hertha Berlin
Red Card: Hertha in 50th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 2-1

Hertha was really doing good as huge underdog until the red card came and even then Leipzig had their problems and it needed a penalty to get the win for them. Playing nearly a full half one man down is never easy in an away game and Leipzig is a good team with lots of quality players. Expected result after that red card.

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The red-carded teams were doing poor this round and each of them were losing their games in the end. Goals for after red card: 1, goals against: 5, no score change after red card only in one game.

Sometimes I wonder why players (especially defenders) even take the risk of a card (of any color) once the match is already decided, all the more so when the other team is clearly inferior. I guess it introduces a bit of drama for spectators and gamblers alike !

This weekend saw some more to cheer on, if you are a fan of hard tackles and unsportsmanlike conducts

England

Everton - Liverpool
Red Card: Everon in 90th minute, score 2-2
Final score: 2-2

Red card came late, so no impact.

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Crystal Palace - Brighton
Red Card: Brighton in 93rd minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-1

Same here.

Spain

Granada - Sevilla
Red Card: Sevilla in 45th minute (injury time of first half), score 0-0
Final score: 1-0

Granada took advantage and scored the winning goal in 82nd minute. Some lay of Granada and frequent hedging would have worked, but this is very difficult to get right.

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Eibar - Osasuna
Red Card: Osasuna in 88th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-0

Again a late red card with too few time left to have any impact.

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Villareal - Valencia
Red Card: Villareal in 92nd minute, score 2-1
Final score: 2-1

And another one....

Italy

Crotone - Juventus
Red card: Juventus in 60th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 1-1

As one could expect, Juve was able to defend the score, but weren't able to score themselves again, also being without CR7. This is normally a spot, where most punters would feel good going on the red-carded team: Huge favourite and a not too early red card. Laying next goal Crotone would have been costly I guess, but would have won, so I am making this green.

Germany

Bielefeld - Bayern
Red Card: Bayern in 76th minute, score 1-4
Final score: 1-4

Game was already decided when the red card came and these games are probably pretty uninteresting to bet on then. Even with 8 players Bayern is still better than Bielefeld

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There were some more red cards this weekend, but only 1 goal was scored after it. In general there are rather few red cards or they often come very late, so hard to get some bigger sample size. I should maybe add FRA1, there have been loads of red cards this season, 32 already this season

This was just an outlier and is no pattern


If I were a coach and my team gets a red card in first half being one score down (0-1/1-2/2-3), my ultimate goal would be to defend this score as long as possible to keep me in the game. Then in the maybe last 10 minutes, I would get more offensive again and try to score the equalizer.
I guess this is what ManU tried to do as well, because they didn't make any substitution after the red card. It didn't work out and they were down 1-4 already with half-time and then just decided to limit the damage, which didn't work out as well then

As I said in the opening post, I don't think a red card is that bad, i.e. the end of the world. You have some tactical tools and should also react properly on a mental level. We have seen in this thread that not all hope is lost when you are one man down (Eibar this weekend or Juve the weekend before). It is a disadvantage, but not as big as generally assumed imo.

I am surprised by this statistic as it seems to contradict that the fouling team will shift to a permanent defensive strategy after a red card. It looks like they'll try to snag one more goal if they can, then shift to a defensive strategy after which the other team is supposed to have a much harder time getting past them and shooting goals.

Also, defenders getting a red card has less impact on their teams if their formation is already defensive-oriented, like 4-4-2 or 4-3-3. If you only had three defenders and one of them goes down then they're in much bigger trouble because the other team gets what's pretty much an open lane, especially if you make a midfielder play defense instead of subbing in a real defender.

Interestingly Man United's attacker got the red card against Spurs, so they shouldn't have finished so badly. What happened? Did the whole team lose their morale and started to play badly?

Pretty uneventful weekend for red card fetishists (are there these kind of people ?).

England

ManU - Tottenham
Red Card: ManU in 28th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-6

ManU completely collapsed after that red card and conceded 4 more. This would have been a bad spot.

Spain

Valladolid - Eibar
Red Card: Eibar in 73rd minute, score 1-1
Final Score: 1-2

Eibar managed to get all 3 points with a late goal one man down. This is rather unusual in an away game also considering Eibar was >4.00 pre-match. Didn't watch the game, but maybe Valladolid pushed for the 2-1 and ran into a counter-attack.

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Alaves - Bilbao
Red Card: Alaves in 86th minute, score 1-0
Final Score: 1-0

Red card came late, so had no impact no more.

Italy

Lazio - Inter
Red card: Lazio in 70th minute, score 1-1
Final score: 1-1

Laying next goal Inter would have worked here, which is maybe really something one should look into as a strategy with small money to test the results (not just on paper).

Germany

No red cards this round.

In a very easy nutshell, i can categorically confirm that Red Card in football leaves the football team with a player down compared to the other team; it leaves such team at a very disadvantage compared to the other team. Often time in football, we have seen clubs lose terribly after losing a player to the red card; and we have also seen great sides win a football match with 1 man down. It all depends on the psychological state of the team, as well as the tactical prowess of the coach to drive a performance out of the team

Do you mean Zidane during the 2006 World Cup final ? Do you know that Materazzi said he'd like to fuch his sister, and is boasting about it to this day ? Really disgraceful. He got to be world champion, he could have apologized, instead remaining a prick for the history books.

I always hate when someone from the club that I like got a red card for an unnecessary offense. However, if its offense is meant to maintain something or because of a certain problems like what Ziane did, I don't if it will be wors again. And for the team, I personally agree that a red card for one of their team will result in the game exactly. They must have a decreasing spirit and also of course they must work hard to maintain and survive.

Actually, I ever know about it that red cards may give an impact on the need to pay some fees for that red card. Is it true? probably every match or event will depend on the rules, including the red card acceptance and it is a must.

Usually in friendly matches there are not so many red cards since the result is not important and people are not taking to much risks.

Unfortunately I didn't catch any odds after the red cards, but it wasn't too interesting in terms of red cards this weekend anyway.

England

Everyone behaved well, no red cards.

Spain

No red cards.

Italy

Roma - Juve
Red Card: Juve in 62nd minute, score 2-1
Final Score: 2-2

This would have been a very profitable spot to go on the red-carded team. Too bad I didn't follow the odds, but I would think Roma was between 1.30-1.40 after the red card.

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Bologna - Parma
Red Card: Parma in 76th minute, score 3-1
Final Score: 4-1

No impact on the outcome, Bologna with the 4-1 in the last minutes.

Germany

Mainz - Stuttgart
Red Card: Mainz in 77th minute, score 1-2
Final Score: 1-4

Stuttgart was able to extend their lead shortly after the red card and made another one some minutes later. Bad spot here, but Mainz was playing against their coach (and they succeeded, because he was sacked in the meantime ) Stuttgart had a red card in injury time as well, just for the record.

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Schalke - Bremen
Red Card: Schalke in 84th minute, score 0-3
Final Score: 1-3

Red card came late, when the game was already decided, but Schalke actually managed to score a goal one man down in injury time.

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Recapitulating things so far, it looks like there probably is some value on "next goal" for red-carded team or lay "next goal" for opponent (to cover no goals in remaining time). This would have worked twice this weekend with I guess very good odds and also 2/3 last weekend. But we need more data

Fun Fact: All games with a red card ended over 3.5 goals.

Yes, this is of course the most important data. You can get that data from Betfair, but I don't have an account there no more to scrape it (and I would probably be too dumb anyway ). I will try to record the odds for those matches which I follow live, but I can't follow them all. But we can maybe make a team effort out of it, where users post the odds in here, after a red card was given - and probably the odds right before the card as well. So everyone feel free to contribute Pre-match odds are easy go get btw at oddsportal or other odds comparison sites, but we need the inplay ones.

It will always follow the same pattern more or less, so once you/we have a big enough sample size, you can just calculate the odds yourself and will already see, if the market gives away some value.

Very nice stats you shared a few posts earlier,,, now it would be extremely interesting to take note of all the bookie odds at the start of the match, and how they changed as soon as the red card was made. For sure it makes odds go higher for some teams in a draw situation, but if Spurs had a red card, I would bet on them anyway to win. Same as City and Liverpool, MAdrid and Barcelona. These teams seem to get stronger and are fit enough to cover more field.

The rules are unlikely to change but I wonder how football would be if instead of yellow and reds (or on top of them) there was a penalty box instead. The yellow and red could be kept for the gravest offenses, but for smaller ones, instead of a yellow or nothing (because there is nothing in between) you could lose the player for some minutes.

Yep, I think so too (and thats why I created this thread to monitor things and have some discussion going on to get some input). The problem with betting on a red-carded team to win is that it might take some time to pay off and most people don't have the stamina, get frustrated quickly and quit. You will play high-ish odds and you will see lots of money going down the drain at first, before you hit on some of these odds.

I think it's better for the start to go with the result not changing after a red card, i.e. a draw stays a draw at FT, maybe from 1-1 to 2-2, or some handicaps like +1.5 for the remainder of the game, double chances, dnb. As always you would have to be cautious in choosing the right spots/games and not jump into any game that sees a red card. And trading is better than punting here imo, always take at least your initial liability out when things are going your way, until you mastered this special situation in a football match.

I also think there is good value in a red carded team to go and win it, but you have to be able to watch live. Red Card for an attacking team is ok for me (depending also who got red carded) and then defending team could be tempted to try and change to win. We have seen many teams now win with 10 or even 9 men,,,

A red card changes the momentum of the game. It affects both teams. For instance, a team who is prepared to defend and counter-attack at the beginning, with a 4-5-1 formation, will have to change it up to a 4-4-2 or to other more offensive formation if the other team is reduced to 10-man. The goal suddenly shifts from getting a clean sheet to winning the game so the pressure to score builds up. I've watched interviews from the team with complete players and they sometimes say it threw them off.

I think you were spot on when you said the impact depends on the time it was given and the score. A team who is 4-0 up by half time and received a red card at the start of the 2nd half would likely end up winning or getting a draw at least.

England

No red cards in first round, but second round had 4.

Everton - WBA
Red card: WBA in 45th minute, score 2-1
Final score: 5-2

WBA managed to score the equalizer after the red card at the beginning of second half, but 3 goals inside 12 minutes sealed the win for Everton. Would have been worth to lay Everton after the red card and trade out after 2-2.

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Newcastle - Brighton
Red card: Brighton in 89th minute, score 0-3
Final score: 0-3

No impact since in the closing stages of an already decided game.

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Chelsea - Liverpool
Red Card: Chelsea 45th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-2

Liverpool took advantage nicely of the strenghts in numbers and scored twice directly after half-time. Chelsea managed to get a penalty later, but missed it.

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Aston Villa - Sheffield United
Red card: Sheffield in 12th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 1-0

Sheffield got a penalty to take the lead one man down, but missed it. Aston Villa then took the lead in second half and defended it till the final whistle.

Spain

No red cards in round 2 and just one in round 1.

Eibar - Celta Vigo
Red Card: Eibar in 87th minute, score 0-0
Final score: 0-0

Red card came too late to have any impact.

Italy

Just one red card.

Milan - Bologna
Red Card: Bologna in 88th minute, score 2-0
Final Score: 2-0

Again a late red card with no impact.


Germany

No red cards in first round.

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Not very telling so far since 50% of the red cards were late. In the games where they were early-ish, two teams did good and would have given a trade profit (lets assume Sheffield normally does not miss the penalty ).

I think it depends very much on the game situation what effect a red card has. If Manchester United play against a third division team in the FA Cup, a red card on the Manchester side will not make much difference.
But if you look at yesterday's Champions League final Bayern vs. PSG, for example, a red card could have had devastating consequences for any of the teams.
At this level, even the smallest mistake can be decisive. A permanent weakening of a team by a red card, however, puts them in a serious predicament against equal teams

I think the red cards only impacts small teams which are lacking a winning mentality.I have seen so many games where big teams have been hit by one or even two red cards and they have still managed to win the game or in the worst case to not lose it by drawing to the other team.

However in small teams red cards can be devastating and can be the cause for a huge loss with a big number of goals difference.

Red cards certainly have an impact on the team because it not only weakens it due to the absence of a player, but also has a moral impact if there are doubts about the fairness of the punishment. Sometimes such doubts can lead to much more serious consequences.
I will never forget a memorable match for me at the 2006 world Cup, when the Netherlands played Portugal in the 1/8 final. At that time, 4 red cards and 16 yellow cards were shown in one match. This is a great example of a match when teams start to foul each other and the heat gradually increases. In this match played primarily psychology and excellent football players turned into boys who want to avenge each other for fouls. I don't remember a single match that I was more disgusted to watch.

I've also found very good value in a GOOD team getting a red card. But this depends still a lot on the team itself and how they play and WHO gets the red card. Barca (my team) got a red card almost every other game for the opening of the season I remember, and the odds for them to either win or keep the lead after the red card all got good value, which would win for almost every option.

But like you said, changes the dynamic too much and only worth betting IF you know and watch the game and know how well they play after.

It seems to me that after the 80th minute the chances are almost equal: if a team that plays in the majority goes ahead en masse, then it has a chance to miss the counterattack and lose the match. I can say that the situation is equal here.
As for the earlier stages, the advantage of the team playing in the majority is obvious - it is harder to defend (especially in the minority), so you can just wait until the opponent is physically exhausted.

Yes, but it's not that much easier I think. If we look at the Bordeaux - Nantes match, Zerkane got red card and Bordeaux didn't make any substitution right away. They re-organized themselves like this:


Source: https://www.flashscore.com/match/x42Vi5GG/#lineups;1

So not a lot of changes, if a) Bordeaux takes more defensive approach and b) Hwang/Maja run a bit more. For sure Nantes will have more posession and can get more easily in Bordeaux's half, but once arrived there, it's basically the same as with 11 vs 11 (also considering Bordeaux being kind of extra-motivated, team spirit increased etc.). Now these two teams are evenly matched and it's a way different ball game, if a bad team receives a red card against a superior team.

So when there is a general stat that the scoring intensity increases by 5/4, this is/was not the case for Nantes, it was way less imo, if at all. But this has to be judged on an individual basis and by following the game.


This is very simplified then again, because it doesn't take into account the circumstances when the red card happened, team strenghts etc. Maybe in those 59% lost games, in 60% of the cases this team was already pre-match underdog and down 0-1 when the red card happened

Once again a very interesting thread tyKiwanuka, thank you very much for that!


I think this is quite obvious. Often players in defense or defensive midfield are affected by red cards. So if a player is taken off the field in this position, someone from the more offensive game has to fill this gap. Either by letting him fall back or by substituting him. This will inevitably result in a lack of attacking power.
In my opinion, the higher probability for goals simply results from the fact that the opposing team can now build up attacks more easily and thus inevitably have more chances to score goals.

If you look at sports betting I find this statistic quite interesting:

Source
According to this, a team that has received a red card loses 59% of the game. I will take a closer look at that once my betting season starts again

Hmm, this is an interesting opinion I agree that this team will get a lot of physical pressure on the pitch, because the other team will attack relentlessly, but on a mental level I don't see the pressure increasing as I said (it's going down imo). No one expects anything no more from this team, there is nothing to lose no more. Imagine you get a draw with one man down - great result. Imagine you get a draw being one man up - not so great.

It's basically the same when a top team plays a way inferior team in lets say a cup game. Bayern Munich playing a third division team, all the pressure is on Bayern imo. Everything but a win is super embarassing and this is huge pressure (with which the pros learnt to deal with to some extent). For the Div3 team there is no pressure at all, everyone expects them to lose; even they themselves.

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We as punters can maybe experience the same a bit too or at least I do. Lets say I place a bet on home win in a football match. As long as it is 0-0, I am rather calm, I live by the hope. The moment my team scores the 1-0 I feel some relieve, but also suddenly get more nervous - why ? Because it feels like I have this money already in my pocket, so now there is something to lose for me. This is pretty weird, but psychology. I talked to other people about this and they feel the same.

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Thanks for posting this, quite interesting. As someone who always struggled with math a bit, I find these formulas very nice


Source: http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~vecer/redcard.pdf

This was my gut feeling as well; goals are less likely most of the times after a red card was shown:

I have searched google about this, and I found this paper. I am amaze with this paper lol
this is for you,
http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~vecer/redcard.pdf

I was also watching the live results of Ligue 1 earlier and in the first 20 minutes of Lille's match the odds slowly moved towards the draw but once Rennes got a red card Lille's odds moved down from 2.2 to 1.5 right away. My experience with red cards is slightly mixed sometimes it doesn't have a big difference when the other team is given an advantage like this. It's kind of similar to a powerplay in hockey where the other team lose one player for a couple of minutes usually their opponent will score but it doesn't always happen.

I kind of agree about the moving way too much after a red card but I think it's only because there's still a lot of time left. Now i'm interested to see how the odds would look like if the red card was given in the 50-80th minute.

I'd actually think of it as the opposite. The one that got the red card would receive pressure, although they have the decision to defend till their last breath, it's still pressure to play against a full team with one less person. As for the opposing team, the pressure would still stay the same imo, it's not like their goal was changed, they still need to put out 3 points. Though I'm saying this, it's actually highly dependent on the team itself, since as you said, it's a psychological factor.

Like what @KT said, most matches that have red cards just end up with one team attacking and one defending. It becomes a rather stale game where you're just basically watching for the skill of the players and not the result anymore. The market also responds appropriately with that, we all have the statistics and records for most teams and players right now, they could basically respond to red card situations with appropriate results that shouldn't deviate that much. It's not like red card is a new thing, and there are a lot of matches for reference in the past already.

Markets are responding appropriately. I remember a time (how old I am, damn it) when the red card in football meant nothing. Since then, everything has changed a lot, the general level of the teams has leveled off, a lot of theoretical work has been done, etc. And now the state of affairs is very much closer to hockey, where the removal of one player completely changes the game and the outsider becomes the favorite (albeit for two minutes).
I should note that the matches where the red card was shown are getting pretty boring as one of the teams goes to the permanent defense. And I also noticed that oddly enough (although it is quite logical given that one team is constantly defending) many matches with red cards end in a draw.

Red cards in football have a pretty big impact on football matches - there are only two incidents, when betting markets get suspended: goals and red cards. But how big is the impact of a red card in the end ?

This was always a factor of the game, where I wanted to do some research. There are some studies available in the internet, but they are way too simplified/general in the end for my liking. They don't take into account all the different circumstances which are important to do some analysis what a red card does to the game and how it potentially changed the outcome. These circumstances are:

• What were the pre-match odds ?
• When was the red card given ?
• To which player was the red card given
• What was the score at that time ?
• Was it given to home or away side?
• How did it affect the odds ?

Now these are probably too many factors to include in an anylysis in an online forum and it would take very long to have a big enough sample size to make a general assumption. But I want to use this thread to monitor games with red cards, to get a better feel for it, where some value could be found.

I will concentrate on ENG1, ESP1, ITA1 and GER1 for a start and see if there is any pattern. This will not be retrospective, but for the upcoming season in these leagues.

An example from FRA1 yesterday:

Bordeaux - Nantes
Pre-match odds: 2.64 - 2.94 - 3.02 (avg. from oddsportal)
Red card: Bordeaux in 20th minute, score 0-0
Final result: 0-0

After the red card for Bordeaux, the ML odds for Nantes went down to around 2.0-ish I think (didn't follow closely) and having watched the game in HT2, it would have been super value to place a bet on Bordeaux 1X, since Nantes was super poor. Bordeaux was happy defending the 0-0 and did so very well, can't remember a big goal scoring opportunity for Nantes. But it's not easy on a mental level to place a bet on a team that is one man down early in the game

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We can use this thread also for some discussion about it.

In general I don't like red cards in terms of betting, not even for the team I bet against pre-match. It gives the game a completely new dynamic, which is not something I like and where I struggle a lot. Most of the times a red card is shown, I just stop following the game, if I wanted to do some live bets - just too hard for me to judge.

So what does a red card do ? It depends very much on all these circumstances above. For example, if you lead 3-0 and get a red card in 89th minute, it doesn't matter. If you are 1.2 favourite at home and get a red card in 15th minute, you still have very good chances to take the 3 points.

A lot of what happens after a red card is shown, is psychological imo. The team that is down by one man "just" needs 10% more from the remaining 10 players to compensate, but in their mind they think "uh, we are down one man, we have no chance anymore". They will choose a more defensive approach and by subbing a striker out, they can just park the bus, don't attack the opponents defenders that hard and it will be very hard for their opponent to score. There isn't more space then and you don't even need to run that much more, if you are well organized.

A red card will always kind of motivate the team that got it. It ups the team spirit imo and they are willing to go the extra mile to defend the result; it can be a good boost in team morale, if they get the job done. The team that has the strength in numbers will feel some additional pressure otoh. They are somehow expected to get the 3 points no matter what then or everyone will laugh at them.

I have no data to back it up, but I think the betting markets always overreact when a red card occurs. Since the data is so hard to process and classify, there is always a lot of uncertainty in the markets. Lets see, if we can work something out here in this regard.

What is your opinion or experience regarding red cards and the impact they have on the outcome of a football match ? Did you play football on some (semi-)professional level and one of your teammates got a red card ? What did this do to you, your team and your mental approach ?