Topic: Regarding Bull runs and speculations (Read 839 times)

It is clear why you see so many people hoping for a bull run, despite the bull run there are many people that lost money during the last bull run and they want to recover the money they lost and so they want a bull run, but I agree with you, if everyone is waiting for the bull run to happen then it is not going to happen, this may seem strange for someone that doesn't understand how the markets behave but it is impossible for every person to earn money in the market so most people need to lose.

And for most people to lose then this means that most of the time the market is going to move opposite to what people are expecting, and since everyone wants the market to go up you can be sure that the market is going to do the opposite.

I think the bull run is not purely speculative on nature, of course speculators make money during the bull market but it is definitely not the way it starts. One day something big happens, sometimes not even anything big needs to happen and than the price starts to go up, one day it goes up like %10 than it goes up another 7% than when you look at the whole week the price increased like 50% or more and than it keeps happening like that for a month and increases like 300% or whatever total.

Speculators do not have enough power to neither keep it low or stop it so what they do is just get in and try to pay their way into the bandwagon and keep the price going for another while until they get out with their money. Sometimes when they leave it makes the market crash because the price already stays on thin ice after a while but sometimes it just keeps going.

First of all, I don't get why just because some people choose to speculate on the price of bitcoin would automatically mean that the price of bitcoin wouldn't be able to go up anymore? I mean, these are really not mutually exclusive by any means.

You're right about last year being one of the biggest bull markets that we've seen, though. And I do believe that last year's bull market will probably be the most in magnitude that we'll see in a while, to be frank, due to the fact that now the entire bitcoin sphere is a lot more mature and it's harder for such percentages of gains to be achieved.

But bull markets are a part of the normal cycles that occur within bitcoin, and with the halving coming up in 2 years time, I would definitely be confident in saying that a bull market would be due as soon as prices bottom out, which I believe isn't right now. Of course, I don't expect it to be anything near last year's growth, though.

It is not that hard to predict right now because the volume is very low, not all time low because we have been steadily getting new people on the way and getting more crowded so even during stagnant boring times the volume is higher than what it used to be couple years ago but still low compared to what it can be and what it used to be. Now when the volume is this low it means the volatility is a risk for whales, when volatility is a risk than they do not get in.

Hence, when the speculators who has a lot of money can't get in during low volumes (because they wouldn't be capable of getting in and out without causing market stirrup) what happens? A calm market. When a bull comes the volume will naturally go up again and during that time they will come back and do something but until that happens we are fine.

Sure, it is always going to be hard to predict, but as this market keeps growing that is one thing we will always get to see over time, until we reach a point of no return which I see as mainstream adoption, and bitcoin or most cryptocurrencies are now being used in real life based on their product, and in that case, we will definitely not have the same market as we have now when that time comes.

It is a market and for sure, there is no doubt that no one can predict anything but we can also realize that in the long run, judging from the present moment, there is actually a great time ahead of us.

that seems reasonable enough. it leaves enough room for a multi-year bear market, which so many people are dismissing prematurely. the confidence many people have that the bear market is over---despite no technical evidence of a price reversal---is unnerving to me. at the bottom in 2015, sentiment was much more negative. everyone thought bitcoin was dead, and hope was destroyed. it felt very different from now.

this is why tim draper prevailed when other grand predictions failed. these cycles can take years to develop.

I think there's a bull run maybe not this year but like others I believe too that will be having bull run again and I think its huge. We can blame for anyone because it's their own decision and opinions. If you see a chart since bitcoin start you will the every progress and bull runs.

Bull run will happen because market cycles are a part of every market. Everything has bull and bear markets - gold, stocks, commodities, currencies. So, with Bitcoin, the only question is when will it happen and when will this bear market reach its bottom. There were many greedy predictions this year claiming there will be bull run at the end of this year, so people might have some unrealistic expectations, but it's safe to assume that the bull run will happen within next 4 years.

There are two sides to this market, the spot market, and the OTC market.

Retailers are the most active on the spot market, which nicely explains why the far majority of the current trading consists of algorithmic activity, because retailers have taken a long nap. Institutions and other deep pockets are entering and trading on the OTC market, which isn't measured in any form or shape, aside from what we can see in terms of value being transferred on-chain.

Bitcoin is steadily hovering around $4 billion per day in on-chain value transfers, which is pretty solid in times where the spot market is reaching low after low when it comes to their volumes.

https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/

Well, there are already institutional investors that are coming in at this stage believe it or not, in the middle of the bear market.

The thing is that there are people who are invested in bitcoin in order to speculate, and there are people who actually believe in the technology behind it, which most people on this forum I assume are. It's probably not wise to generalize the bitcoin investors worldwide into any single category for their motivations.

The thing is though, that bitcoin moves in cycles and last year saw some pretty crazy bullish growth which was admittedly unsustainable. This year, that's why we see the bear market kicking in. A bull market will re-enter as soon as this bearish sentiment clears, which I think will definitely take a year or two further based on historical trends, but will happen sooner or later.

It seems that the investors confidence level in bitcoin is pretty low at the moment, as there were quite a number of bullish news reports on crypto-currencies recently, but sadly to say, it did not trigger a small bull run even at the last quarter of year 2018, I guess there is not much hope left now for the bull market to return in the year of 2018.

If you look at the history of bitcoin, the popularity has risen a lot so we can say that investors confidence in it also increase therefore we could say that we are still on the bull run.

Take a look below...

Me too. Yeah it feels good to talk about happy moments of bitcoin, but such hypes play with our emotions. When we hear something good is about to happen, we raised our expectation from bitcoin but later when everything just broke out, that is point of loss. For a successful trader immense trust and faith factor is important that can be demolished by such hypes.

A bull run can occur when investor confidence in bitcoin increases again, if investor confidence in bitcoin decreases it is impossible for a bull run to occur. this takes a long time.

The mega run was not just last year and in the long term, I am still pretty bullish on bitcoin, knowing that we have not even reached any mainstream adoption phase and the market has been growing every single year.

Sure, one way or the other, we can accept the fact that crypto space right now is all about speculation, but you think that will not change over time? It is that way because it is still a very new space and as time goes on when the space becomes a lot usable in the real world, I can guarantee you that it would have left the whole speculative stage, and the value will not even be what it is today. It is actually that future we are all investing in now.

This year we are still ending higher than the last but there a massive spike last year which was completely unnatural. now we are seeing an organic rise which will result in stability and maybe a successful etf application

Hardest part about the bull run is that it happens at once. Right now, we are in a market where everything is looking stable, some drop off than some come up but in the end its always about the same price. When bitcoin went up last year it went up so quickly that most people didn't have time to react and that is why many people got in during the $15k+ times and right now they are not happy with that decision.

The only option we have right now is to keep our money in bitcoin until it goes up and never get it out of there. It is really hard when you have your money stuck somewhere for months and not moving even dropping couple points and you see it going to waste and not sure if it will ever go up again. Sometimes people say "enough" and get out sometimes they hang around but in the end if bitcoin jumps in price you need to have your money ready in it to make decent returns.

Expectations always come at the right time and when bullish will come don't be over excited but remain calm. Don't rush out on your holdings and have strong faith with crypto. This is one way of showing gratitude with your holdings, and yet be decisive on most certain cases that will affect your way of protecting a precious asset.

The mega run was last year yes, and in 2013, and in 2011. There wasn't one mega run and now it's done, it is a pattern of booms and busts that bitcoin goes through. 2017 was just the boom part of one of these cycles.

People aren't hoping for a bull run, we are guessing WHEN it will happen, not hoping that it might happen.

Why would any money come into Bitcoin after the crazy run and crash in 2011? Why after the early 2013 same thing? why after the late 2013 same thing?

My guess if you've never looked at the history of Bitcoin and had never heard of it before 2017 and only know about what happened in 2017. Bitcoin has been on an S-curve of adoption, each boom bringing in exponentially more people. With this most recent 2017 boom Bitcoin reached like 0.5% of the world population, which is nothing. So now that the crash has seemingly ended two months ago and the next bull run will almost certainly start within a few months people like to predict when exactly when it will start, cuz its fun to predict things.

If you don't know why people expect Bitcoin to continue going up and continue doing the boom-bust cycles that have defined its entire lifetime, well I'd suggest to just start learning about Bitcoin. There is a reason why in 7 years it went from less than one cent to $20k, and that reason didn't all of a sudden disappear after 2017.

Nah. People should stop looking at 2015 because of how it was MtGox largely responsible for the horrible sentiment.

If you add that most people involved in this space weren't sure if Bitcoin was here to stay, it only further accelerated the sales going on back then. We are way past that stage, and I'm sure that most people finally have come to the point of acknowledging that Bitcoin isn't going anywhere.

Another bullish factor is that we're in the process of sucking market share out of USDT, which is slowly but surely flowing into other (more reputable) stablecoins. By the time USDT implodes, it will be a fart instead of a nuclear explosion. Life is good here, more so than ever before. Stacking BTC's is what people should be doing now, not waste time worrying about 1-5% movements.

Aye, Koppite! Just because most alt holders are lamenting their mistakes and hoping for moon and bull, don't mean the rest of Bitcoiners are too. I'm small fish, a little bigger than some but chum for most others... but we actually really don't need another bull run so soon. That 5-figure BTC price would be so welcome, for sure, and I'll be first to crack a smile if that happens, and holds right there for a good year or so - minus the inevitable spikes and slides.

Be good to enjoy ourselves for the remainder of the year and 2019, work hard to have something significant to look at come 2020, come halving, come full-blown Lightning Network

This is how assets market operate.  After the bull run we should expect some corrections that do push the market backwards.  In 2017 many investors, invest into cryptocurrencies market because of the hope and what the future hold and that is the most important! The market cycle is what we can not do without and like a saying goes " whatever go up must come down" since bitcoin and the overall general market is down now we should expect another bullish trend very soon. 
Money is going to flow from the both money market and capital market into cryptocurrencies market as investors are seeing it as the alternative to stock market now.

The price today is $6kish, next year possibly $4kish for a bottom this time around, but probably not lower. The price 2-4 years ago was less than 1/10th these figures. The price 4-6 years ago was less than 1/100th these figures.
Get the picture?

If its anything like 2015 then it will most likely keep trading sideways and then some exchange will get "hacked" and it will cause support to break and then a few hours later it will end up closing as a long doji or wick.

People will get stopped out because there will be huge liquidations and basically withdraw their funds and give up. And the only people left will be the true Hodl'er.

Basically since everybody thinks there will be a new ATH in November 2018 is the reason why there will not be an ATH. The bears are no different. They are expecting something like $1-2K BTC and that will neither happen. It will mostly trade sideways. Margin longs and margin shorts will eventually quit because they are losing on the funding cost and then the next cycle will start.

That "everyone" is not the key for bull run to happened so just let that people hope for it. I assumed that "everyone" you are talking about are those people or users here that is posting "they want bull run to happened". Mostly average cryptocoiners (crypto people) or newbies.


There is always a large institutions or persons who will put money on crypto especially at bitcoin no matter what. What happened last year is pure hype and others go with the flow without understanding the risks they are entering. It's not a reason why people shouldn't trust again bitcoin.

Just trust the process.

Great post bro, $10,000 would be great to see again. A period of consolidation in & around that figure for a year or so would be great. The next halving would the come into play as we look to maybe see the beginning of the next bull run in Jan 2020 or thereabouts.

Not everyone is hoping for a bull run if you're looking hard enough... this unexpected slowdown and decline in price has given a lot of people on the sidelines opportunities to go in with much lower capitals, while those like me who only "started" building up never reached our goals in 2017 as price just meant that we were earning less and less coin (since most people earn in dollar value).

I think many people are hoping for SOME form of recovery, sure. Even 50% of ATH and stabilising there would be roundly seen as very positive - that's a solid $10k for Bitcoin. But not a bull run, I don't think. Plenty of time left to consolidate, and the longer it takes before we make another go at ATH, the better Bitcoin will be able to hold on to gains.

Obviously, crypto is a speculative assets, that's why people are hoping for a bull run to get a better returns for their investment.

Well, this is not a get rich scheme, and those who are here to get rich is already out of the market when the bears took over. And its hard to replicated what we have witnessed last year.

As I have said, this whole crypto thingy is now a big speculative asset. Everyone has its own prediction to totally fit what they need. The question is how the market will react based on those predictions?

Speculations will be an advance thing with crypto nowadays and thinking in positive was the least priority, and if you're not strong enough to handle your emotions you'll tend to give up. Don't be like that, because as long as the community of crypto will still be active at trading and bitcoin will always be used for crypto transactions we will see a good results to give us a break as surprise.

Yes of course if not this year, next year the possibility of bull run, will coming true, but this quit a tedious wait the question is how long you will not give  up. Patience is a virtue but  it seems necessary, because loosing is not an option.

All of us have the same dream to see the bull runs to comes and happen in this year, and if it's not happen in this year, then we still have time to wait for this. I am sure that the bull run will come and I am sure that the price can reach more than $17k again and even more. One thing that we need to know is bitcoin will break every level of the price and it will on the top of the price which we think that the sky is limit. Be patient to wait for the bull runs and stay calm.

Hoping for a bull run doesn't make it come,yeah most people may be desperate for it, and you cannot really blame them, as they bought at a very high price, and now the price is 2 times low their purchase price

This year hasn't been as favorable as last year,but it hasn't been that much terrible per se,we could just hope the factors that signal a rise in price appears on scene, so the bull run comes

But at the end all we're left with in this system is mere speculations as there's no real fact on the ground to go by

A friend of mine bought at $17 500 last year, so he hopes for a Bull run to get any kind of return on his investment. He has been waiting for nearly a year to see one cent profit from his investment in Bitcoin.

A lot of people are in the same boat with him and they have yet to see any profit from their investment into Bitcoin. Fortunately they are the lucky ones, because a lot of other people had to sell their coins at a loss, because they needed the money for something else.

There is nothing wrong with Hopes and Dreams for a Bull run. 

Money, perhaps? Everyone has been talking about Bitcoin going to the moon for as long as I can remember, so this isn't exactly unique to our current circumstance.


Some people are in it for the technology, believe it or not. They're simply not as vocal as the price fanatics. I mean, there's very little to talk about otherwise, with few people actually being specialized enough to understand the technology side of things.

A drastic change could cause a bull run to happen. The mainstream knows about Bitcoin, but a vast majority of them has no interest in it. If they develop an interest one way or the other, then there's massive potential for growth.


That's not exactly a hot take with speculators making up majority of the market, but I like to think that most who are in this actually believe that Bitcoin will play a major role in society in the future. Everyone can count their money in the meantime.

I guess the best that you can do now is just wait for it to happen. We know that there are market cycles and even if we know that there are many people who are taking advantage of controlling the market because of being unregulated, there may come a time when they would decide to just pump the market and if you are one of those retail traders who are waiting for those whales to act then it would be the best opportunity to act.

You may try to think like a whale and study their movements so that you may know if there is an impending major move that would happen soon.In this kind of market, patience is the key to be profitable.

Im tired of listening to speculations ,ive been hearing bull run hype since september
Although im still believing that it will happen im just tired of getting hyped

   A lot of experts say's a lot of things about possible Bull Run yet, all are just Speculation, if we look on the market preview, we've seen the sadden drops of Bitcoin as posted on the market, the good news, it didn't drop further, the market remains stable, the fundamentals, and clear market structure remain stable, all news or what ever information about crypto will always be as Speculation as of this time.

So those that jumped on the bandwagon during the peak of the market got in too late?
Seems to me that they jumped in with both eyes wide open despite the frequent complains I hear amongst my friends on their paper loss.

Last year, when only few had known cryptocurrency, was the biggest increase in the coin's prices. These early investors really got rich in an instant. This year, when a lot of new investors join in the party, become a down market. They don't even know what hit them. Bull run will happen when it happens. It's hard to predict.

Since the release of Bitcoin back in 2009 to 2018 it has been a bull, it had no value in the beginning, now it does. People invest in crypto for the potential of profit which is very apparent by now. There are new investors who have wishful thinking for a boost in the market to sell as soon as possible for a quick profit and those who know the potential for the future. Also don't confuse Altcoins with Bitcoins. Something like Bitcoins has additional utilities and because of it the price isn't pure speculation.

It is not like new invetors are not coming in this market. As new investors join the market, it will make a change in the market. So, new waves will continue to flow in the market. Just because the market is down after a mega run, it does not mean that a bull run will not come. And the crypto market does not follow the rules of normal market due to its highly volatile nature.

New money will always come for the profits as for the potential bitcoin offers. People hope for a bull run because of the skyrocketing of the price during that time. Its only normal.

Most of those who "hope" for it are newbies who started recently and was promised $100k and prices like that and were dreaming of becoming rich overnight. This is the equivalent of asking why anyone would invest in Netflix/Amazon/Apple after they have seen so much success over the years? There's still potential for profit.

The whole crypto is kinda like skate Market. So if might emerge anytime, its price might stay low too. So, hoping the price to get skyhigh isn't unexpected and baseless.

most people hoping for a bull run are bagholding---they bought higher than the current price and want to get back to break-even or profit. it's rational for them to want higher prices.

people who want to accumulate bitcoins are happy to see lower prices. not everyone is hoping for a bull run.


personally, i think it's too soon for a bull run. the late buyers and people who bought to get rich quick are unlikely to be rewarded by the market. markets like to punish people who aren't patient.

however, there is some precedent for fast bear market recoveries in the bitcoin market. 2012 and 2013 are two examples where price reversed from a bear market very quickly, within a matter of months.


the market is rife with speculation. the problem with your analysis is that you're hyper-focused on one segment of investors. you're not considering the whole underlying ecosystem and prospects for adoption, but rather current investor sentiment.

it seems like most old timers are open to a continued bear market and are not predicting a bull run in the near future. it's the bagholder newbies that are hopeful and in denial about the possibility that their losses will continue. that's how it always works.

Every market is just an speculation, and we really don't know what will be the next trend. But since this market is composed of good technologies, a lot of investors are hoping for the recovery of cryptomarket, and for sure it will happen as soon. The next bull run are coming at no specific time, be ready for that.

If no one is on for technology then why would the biggest and leading companies in the world are getting interested to it.

Are they only extracting the technology from bitcoin itself? no. They might separated bitcoin to blockchain but you can't remove the fact that they are also in for making money for bitcoin while getting involved to blockchain innovation. You see pure speculation because this is a speculative market.

For the crypto money, the bull will come again. Don't worry about that. Just prepare well until then. I think it's the best thing to do to investigate and develop.

Seen Bitcoin some years backs and its movement among its equals, there is no doubt that its future is as bright as the morning star. To be candid, another bull run will surface sooner than later before the end of 2018, to be precise another bull run is expected after 12 December, 2018, which is likely to hit $9k.

Look at the charts and see the price changes until 2015 and assume that now we are in 2016.
What do you think about the future? Do you think the price can rise to 6000 dollar?
According to the the 90% fall which is seen in the chart, I don't think you expect the price to rise to 6000 dollar. Do you?
Now the price is 6000 dollar. Hope you have found out why some people are still waiting for a bull market.

Many are speculating and expecting bull run before the end of the year and hopefully it would happen for us to have a better holidays. If not pushed through then it's okay as long as there are hope it would come maybe next year is good enough. Regarding bull runs is a massive uptrend's price of bitcoin which create waves to other alternatives coins and pulling them up as well. Bull runs effect could create more investors and bringing up good news in the world of crypto currency.

I don't know if and when another bull market run will ever happen in Crypto or if it was a fad that will go away, but I do see more and more infrastructure being built on the blockchain and also around digital and electronic money. Now, will the banks take the technology only to better themselves and suppress the price of the Coin market cap forever so as to keep us in huge losses? Are we only going to have signal groups and pump and dump groups making money on cryptos because this year no new money has come in? All I know is that financially I am much worse off than I was a year or even two years ago and have no clue if it's going to get any better.

an attempt to do that, a bull run happened there by buying it back. when the market falls because many sell their investments and the market immediately drops dramatically. to help recover is to buy it again to increase the market cap of bitcoin.

I'm one of the few people that look on the lows rather than the highs on bitcoin's run. To be honest, I don't see why everyone anticipates an unstable overshooting of price while they can just look at the floor and hope for the best from there. Establishing a solid floor is always better than aiming for unstable highs. Most people want a bull run to happen because they want to get rich quickly, without thinking of the fundamentals and risks it is associated with. As franky had stated, we're still in a 9-year bull run up to now, given that the price difference between 2009-2018 is $5700++.

"Why would any new money come into it after what happened last year"

This is the equivalent of asking why anyone would invest in Netflix/Amazon/Apple after they have seen so much success over the years?

The answer is that there is still potential for profit.

most of those who "hope" for it are newbies who started recently (like last year) and was promised $100k and prices like that and were dreaming of becoming rich overnight. since that didn't happen, now they are getting desperate and turn to wishing because they want profit and they want it fast.

for the same reason that the "new money" came in every month for the last 10 years. or after each massive rise and fall that bitcoin had.

only day traders and newbies "saw" that. what others with eyes see is that this year bitcoin is worth $6k, last year it was $2k and before that....

sorry, that is YOUR perspective.

don't confuse "crypto" aka altcoins with bitcoin. when something has additional utilities such as bitcoin then the price is not pure speculation. but when they are created for speculation like altcoins then you are correct.

bitcoin 2009-2018 is a complete bull run
EG
2016 >$300
2017 >$900
2018 >$5800

as for the temporary waves of daily/weekly.. thats not bull or bear.. thats calve(small bull) and cub(small bear)
though this year has been a slow bull ($5800->$6100) we do still see some cub and calve play at the $6100-$6700 range

as long as 2018 ends above $5800 then its another positive year.

dont worry about the fluke temporary drama of the $10k-$20k area. hardly anyone was actually online those days for the peak of temporary drama. so ignore it(unless you personally actually traded in-out in that area)
 
only a few percentage actually got involved in the $8k-$10k area
only a few dozen percentage actually got involved in the $7k-$8k area

the main population IS involved in the $5800-$7k area so thats what the main population should be thinking about. the area they got in at sold out at and what the majority actually got to personally experience(i mean trade at not just look at a chart of)

so knowing everyone can easily sell or buy above $5800 right now. shows everyone is in a better position than $5800 as we are all sitting above $5800 right now.

so again
as long as 2018 ends above $5800 then its another positive year.

Im curious as to why many people "hope" for a bull run? How is this bull run gunna happen if everyone is hoping for a bull run.

I essentially think the mega run was last year, why would any new money come into it after what happened last year? People saw the rise and the crazy fall and loss it does. No one is in it for technology its all about wanting to get rich. I don't see how people think a bull run is coming..

Care to help me understand how you think this?

All i see in crypto is PURE speculation and everyone will agree with ANYTHING that helps them secure there beliefs in there own investment.