Topic: Relationship between BTC, Hash Rate, BCH (Read 292 times)

Still think the drop in hash rate is "small"?

It's fallen some 10-20 exahashes in the last 2 weeks.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate?timespan=2years

Also, the theory that price is supported by miners is clean out. A lot of miners have shut down operations in the last week due to BTC no longer being profitable to mine. Now miners who can mine for cheaper will fill in the gap.

nope
craig knew that november was going to be a game changer month due to next gen asic release and VC 12 month contracts. ..
he just put out a threat that he(not really) will crash the market.
basically other events happened unrelated to craig. but craig is trying to take the glory for it

people who explain a price drop by "sell x to buy y" have no idea how the market works. if you have BTC for example you don't sell it to take the money to buy BCH, you buy BCH directly with BTC and that action has no effect on bitcoin. if you have USD and want BCH you buy BCH with USD, and that again has no effect on the price of bitcoin.

the reason for bitcoin drop was related to BCH but not in that way. it was about the FUD that they were threatening to sell bitcoin to crash it so the bitcoin investors did it for them by selling faster!!! and now they know that there was no sell off and it was all fake.

But why not having a market price pump for BCH? If this is the case but it seems nothing had move for BCH to pump up and market price for most of the crypto still dipping. So i guess, there is something more than this. I cannot think that holders will going to sell their crypto at 6K USD for most of the holders aiming to sold their crypto at more than 6K USD.

i think you are reading too much into the bitcoin hashrate and its changes. the mining community is simply too huge and too wide spread that a small amount of mining power switching off or to another altcoin is not going to matter at all. and as long as the change in hashrate is not big enough to cause any kind of disturbance (such as slower blocks) it is not worth even discussing about it.

1. VC buy up of coins in novmber 2017 - one year lock in began mid november 2017... hmm mid november 2018 what happened. oh they got to finally sell their coin

2. some statistics site for hashrate report numbers incorrectly. imagine 2 blocks that both solve using exactly 30,000 exhashes
a. solved in 10 minutes
b. solved in 9min 30 seconds

one stat site takes the hashes performed and divides it by a FIXED 600 second measure (50exahash per second) so displays it as both doing 50exahash

another stat site takes the hashes performed and the seconds taken per block
a. 50exahash per second
b. 52.63exahash per second

now imagine pool B turned on asicboost so could solve a 30,000exa in 8 minutes. but then turned off 15% of its rigs to solve a block in about 9minutes 30 seconds
b. first appears as 62.5exa per second (30k/480seconds)
b. then appears as 52.63exahash per second(30k/570 seconds)

as you can see a change in hashrate APPEARS to have occured. yet the pool still wins because it gets to solve blocks in under 10 minutes.

this is where people wrongly think lowering hashrates seen on stats site = slower blocks
the reality is that pools tweak their hashrate to not be solving blocks TOO QUICKLY so that difficulty doesnt jump up, thus avoiding shooting self in the foot. oh and also being more efficient means less electric= less cost= more profit

and thats why you see the spikes of upto 60exa have toned down to a peak of 50exa. and the average went from 50 to 45exa
all while block time still was under 10 minutes...... to try to keep difficulty down
emphasis blocks are still being solves in under 10minutes. so relax the adjustment recently does not mean blocktime delays

3. the btc network seen a 10% drop (5exahash) but the bch only seen a 1xa rise.... does not correlate as a being a story of shifting hash power to an altcoin.
take btc.com which has pools on both btc and bch. if that pool took away hash from btc to put on bch you would see btc.com make less blocks on btc. yet.. btc.com has actually made MORE blocks on btc in the last couple days compared to 4 days ago
today 21
yesterday 17
day before that and day before that 33blocks combined(16-17 a day average)

4. as point 2 and 3 explained. pools are mor efficient and making thus less cost so they can sell coins cheaper. another aspect of being efficient is that certain pools are swapping s9(without using boost) to now cough quality assurance test cough T15's meaning they can half their electricity costs and profit even more while keeping the hashrate at the acceptable range
(no they wont swap s9  1:1  t15 as thats just spiking hashrate to 100exa) to avoid pushing difficulty. so instead run half as many new asics to get less costs which allows them to sell coin below $6k and still profit

summary.
points 2,3,4 all show that the pools activities are related to smart mining adjustments for BTC network. and have no relationship to the altcoin drama.
the btc PRICE event is due to VC investors of BTC from last year (exactly a year later, no coincidence) and mining efficiency
again point 3 shows that pools that are on both coins have not diverted hash away from BTC. because they are actually making more coin now then before

Another good indicator of the hashrate over the longterm is the difficulty and how it retargets (every 2016 blocks)

We just had a drop of 7%, going over the last period. This was directly influenced by the BCH wars. A lot of hash was redirected and rented to try and push each sides agenda. I'm pretty sure it was a bigger impact in the last 2 days or so, but before that we were still on target for a reduction.

Now I think it will be a price induced drop over the next few weeks if this current dip lasts for the short or long term.

For the last month or so we have been keeping pretty much steady there is a thread that has been documenting it pretty well.

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For a more direct answer to OP. I would say that at a certain moment in time Hashrate and price are not affecting eachother. Hashrate is affected by price though, it just takes a few weeks to catch up with the retarget period. The short answer really is as price goes up more hardware becomes profitable and goes online, you also bring in new miners. As price drops you will see people/farms slowly dwindle in numbers down to those that are profitable or hobbyists.

i call it normal because it has been happening the same exact way for years and if you go to left you will see that too.
also it is not price to have lower lows and higher highs

if Chinese farms shut down the hashrate will drop a lot more than this. whereas this is a very small drop in hashrate

Sorry, I just fail to understand how you see this as "normal." Its been on a definite decline for the past month if go by lower lows and lower highs.



It looks like China shutting down farms might be the main contributing factor. I was just curious as to how much mining was pulled from BTC to BCH, seems like it might also be a factor.

Panic is tied directly to selling Bitcoin for the sake of investing in BCH. I think that the market recovery will be no earlier than December 2018. Bitcoin returns to $ 6,000

its more like some miner out of business, selling their machine and bitcoin aswell. losing less for the win.

how you see this as a "plateau" i do not know. but whatever this is, it is normal. you can check any other month or period of time to see the same ups and downs in hashrate!




I did read them but there's nothing that specifically answers my question. Thanks for your "advice."