Republicans are now feeling "The Obama Effect"

squatz1

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on November 16, 2019, 12:30:37 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on November 14, 2019, 04:14:35 PM

... but we know what happened last time to Bernie regarding the DNC fucking him -- I can see them doing it again to favor Biden. At least it wouldn't surprise me.

If the DNC is credibly accused of fucking with the process again or "rigging it" for Biden or any centrist the DNC risks alienating a pretty big portion of their base which could tamp down enthusiasm, this election isn't about flipping moderate republicans or indies as the GOP base is so riled up the only way to beat them this time is to turn out their base in record numbers.

The corporate dems are shitting their pants right now (see bloomberg and the former gov of MA joining the race so late, if they had confidence in Biden they would be loading him up with money rather than getting new candidates late into the race).

They've written Bernie off (wrongfully) and have focused on attacking Warren. Latest IPSOS national poll has Bernie and Biden tied at 19% with Warren dropping to 3rd with only 13%, Buttigeig is rocking a massive 6% (Although Buttigeig did poll #1 in IA and if he wins IA his national polling could go up as a result).

The best news for Bernie right now is to have everyone attacking Biden and Warren from both the right and left!!!!!!

I mean the DNC has done it once, I wouldn't be surprised if they were to do it again. The DNC is still the party with super delagates, they've said they have removed them as well but the only truth to that is that now super delegates have a reduced role in the process -- meaning if a brokered convention is to occur, then they'll be used.

Pretty much saying that if no one has a clear majority come to the convention, we'll ensure that our candidate wins. Isn't that something? Hehe.

But yes -- we'll see what happens soon -- Feb is quickly approaching and Iowa comes!

DaveF

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What nobody is talking about loudly (and I have no idea why) is the hit the R's are taking because of the SALT deductions.
Yes, it's easy to say it's only really hurting NY, CA, etc. the big blue states. But it's not.
It's also hitting rich people with a lot of property in other states. They lost 2 friends of mine 1 in SD and one in NV because they both own stupid large amounts of land and even with a very very very (add a bunch more very) low tax rates compared to NY they still were over the new max, a lot over the max.

As I like to say, I am Mr. nobody here. But if I know 2 people they lost because of that (and their spouses and possibly kids) there are probably 1000s more.

As the saying goes it's all about the economy (money)

-Dave

bluefirecorp_

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Quote from: Flying Hellfish on November 16, 2019, 12:30:37 PM

They've written Bernie off (wrongfully) and have focused on attacking Warren. Latest IPSOS national poll has Bernie and Biden tied at 19% with Warren dropping to 3rd with only 13%, Buttigeig is rocking a massive 6% (Although Buttigeig did poll #1 in IA and if he wins IA his national polling could go up as a result).

The best news for Bernie right now is to have everyone attacking Biden and Warren from both the right and left!!!!!!

Warren flipped on M4A, she's done.

Bernie's still #1 in FEC contributions and unique donors.

Flying Hellfish

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Quote from: squatz1 on November 14, 2019, 04:14:35 PM

... but we know what happened last time to Bernie regarding the DNC fucking him -- I can see them doing it again to favor Biden. At least it wouldn't surprise me.

If the DNC is credibly accused of fucking with the process again or "rigging it" for Biden or any centrist the DNC risks alienating a pretty big portion of their base which could tamp down enthusiasm, this election isn't about flipping moderate republicans or indies as the GOP base is so riled up the only way to beat them this time is to turn out their base in record numbers.

The corporate dems are shitting their pants right now (see bloomberg and the former gov of MA joining the race so late, if they had confidence in Biden they would be loading him up with money rather than getting new candidates late into the race).

They've written Bernie off (wrongfully) and have focused on attacking Warren. Latest IPSOS national poll has Bernie and Biden tied at 19% with Warren dropping to 3rd with only 13%, Buttigeig is rocking a massive 6% (Although Buttigeig did poll #1 in IA and if he wins IA his national polling could go up as a result).

The best news for Bernie right now is to have everyone attacking Biden and Warren from both the right and left!!!!!!

squatz1

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Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Quote from: Flying Hellfish on November 13, 2019, 11:16:44 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on November 12, 2019, 04:36:06 PM

Hate to be the one to tell you this, but Bernie isn't going to be the nominee of the party. You're either going to have Warren or Biden, that's it.

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY to early to be saying things like above bold. Bernie is by no means out of it already despite what you might hear over and over again from the MSM. Buttigieg isn't out of it yet either (although I don't give him much chance to win the nom). Bloomberg could get in and that would likely help Warren and Sanders A LOT.

Quote from: squatz1 on November 12, 2019, 04:36:06 PM

I doubt Bernie is going to surge in the polls with all these other people crowding the field. But I'd love to hear what you think about the matter.

Bernie is ticking up in National and early state polls since his return from the heart attack, Biden seems to have hit a range of a few points and is treading water for the last couple weeks, Warren seems to have peaked and has ticked down just a bit in the last couple weeks ( maybe she peaked too early??).

This fight is still in the early rounds and no one can predict who will stumble and get knocked down or out.

Eh, even if we're this far I can't see the DNC allowing him to be the nominee. I think this is a Warren or Biden race.

I've already seen a couple articles saying that Wall Street isn't even happy about Warren being the nominee and they're withholding money from Schumers efforts to take back the senate due to her having the chance to become the nominee.

You're right about this being early and anything can happen, but we know what happened last time to Bernie regarding the DNC fucking him -- I can see them doing it again to favor Biden. At least it wouldn't surprise me.

Flying Hellfish

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Quote from: squatz1 on November 12, 2019, 04:36:06 PM

Hate to be the one to tell you this, but Bernie isn't going to be the nominee of the party. You're either going to have Warren or Biden, that's it.

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY to early to be saying things like above bold. Bernie is by no means out of it already despite what you might hear over and over again from the MSM. Buttigieg isn't out of it yet either (although I don't give him much chance to win the nom). Bloomberg could get in and that would likely help Warren and Sanders A LOT.

Quote from: squatz1 on November 12, 2019, 04:36:06 PM

I doubt Bernie is going to surge in the polls with all these other people crowding the field. But I'd love to hear what you think about the matter.

Bernie is ticking up in National and early state polls since his return from the heart attack, Biden seems to have hit a range of a few points and is treading water for the last couple weeks, Warren seems to have peaked and has ticked down just a bit in the last couple weeks ( maybe she peaked too early??).

This fight is still in the early rounds and no one can predict who will stumble and get knocked down or out.

squatz1

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Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Quote from: Flying Hellfish on November 11, 2019, 11:55:53 PM

Quote from: squatz1 on November 07, 2019, 11:10:38 AM

Throughout the 2012 election, Obama had such a polarizing presidency that he had cost Democrats many governorships, many state legislatures, and many seats in the House and the Senate.

This election Republicans are starting to feel this same thing. The Trump presidency are pushing many suburban Republicans away from him, and towards Democrats down the ballot.

Look at the recent Mississippi governors race -- where in 2015 Republicans had won by 34 percent. This year they won it by about 5 percent. That's too close for comfort in a race which is typically a lock down Republican.

Or the fact that the Virginia state legislature has now flipped to Dem.

Take this point from the article I'm referencing:

Quote from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-anti-republican-trend-11573065037

This turnout trend has now continued for three Novembers, and Republicans who try to explain it away are fooling themselves. The GOP under Mr. Trump is losing more college-educated suburban voters, especially women, than it is gaining rural voters or working-class former Democrats.

Republicans have to start picking up college educated suburban voters again, or this is going to get very interesting come 2020.

The GOP has put the Senate in play in 2020, by swinging so hard right and it shouldn't be... Any republican running state wide in a purple state is looking at this and shitting their pants right now!

Not only are the suburbs abandoning the GOP, young people are starting to vote, in VA 18-25 year old voting was up by 300% in a non presidential year...

Quote from: squatz1 on November 07, 2019, 11:10:38 AM

Or the fact that the Virginia state legislature has now flipped to Dem.

Or take the fact that, Texas almost elected a Dem senator in 2018, KY elected a Dem Gov (although to be fair the GOP incumbent was incredibly unpopular and the Dem is from a well known family name), Orange County CA went ENTIRELY Dem in 2018 (remember Orange County is Reagan country and where "good republicans go to die"). And on and on and on!

There is a lot of good news bell weathers for liberals in 2020. It is entirely conceivable at this point for the Dems to sweep 2020 and if Bernie is the POTUS with a dem house and senate it's going to be awesome to watch the GOP's heads explode!!!!

Hate to be the one to tell you this, but Bernie isn't going to be the nominee of the party. You're either going to have Warren or Biden, that's it.

I doubt Bernie is going to surge in the polls with all these other people crowding the field. But I'd love to hear what you think about the matter.

TheCoinGrabber

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Casual non-American observer here. Trump has indeed become one of the most polarizing America president I know. Everyone's just basically holding their breath watching what he'll tweet next. Grin

The impression here is that he'll have a high chance of winning (but then again everyone said that of Hillary).

I don't understand why the local government would switch blue though. My understanding was that urban areas tend to vote blue (plus all the people fleeing California) while the countyside remains red.

Flying Hellfish

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Quote from: squatz1 on November 07, 2019, 11:10:38 AM

Throughout the 2012 election, Obama had such a polarizing presidency that he had cost Democrats many governorships, many state legislatures, and many seats in the House and the Senate.

This election Republicans are starting to feel this same thing. The Trump presidency are pushing many suburban Republicans away from him, and towards Democrats down the ballot.

Look at the recent Mississippi governors race -- where in 2015 Republicans had won by 34 percent. This year they won it by about 5 percent. That's too close for comfort in a race which is typically a lock down Republican.

Or the fact that the Virginia state legislature has now flipped to Dem.

Take this point from the article I'm referencing:

Quote from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-anti-republican-trend-11573065037

This turnout trend has now continued for three Novembers, and Republicans who try to explain it away are fooling themselves. The GOP under Mr. Trump is losing more college-educated suburban voters, especially women, than it is gaining rural voters or working-class former Democrats.

Republicans have to start picking up college educated suburban voters again, or this is going to get very interesting come 2020.

The GOP has put the Senate in play in 2020, by swinging so hard right and it shouldn't be... Any republican running state wide in a purple state is looking at this and shitting their pants right now!

Not only are the suburbs abandoning the GOP, young people are starting to vote, in VA 18-25 year old voting was up by 300% in a non presidential year...

Quote from: squatz1 on November 07, 2019, 11:10:38 AM

Or the fact that the Virginia state legislature has now flipped to Dem.

Or take the fact that, Texas almost elected a Dem senator in 2018, KY elected a Dem Gov (although to be fair the GOP incumbent was incredibly unpopular and the Dem is from a well known family name), Orange County CA went ENTIRELY Dem in 2018 (remember Orange County is Reagan country and where "good republicans go to die"). And on and on and on!

There is a lot of good news bell weathers for liberals in 2020. It is entirely conceivable at this point for the Dems to sweep 2020 and if Bernie is the POTUS with a dem house and senate it's going to be awesome to watch the GOP's heads explode!!!!

BADecker

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Actually, the wealthy of the world are influencing everything in concert - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bilderberg_Group. Any President has to change his strategy on a daily basis just to balance the one-world activities of the wealthy of the world.

Cool

KingScorpio

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Quote from: squatz1 on November 07, 2019, 11:10:38 AM

Throughout the 2012 election, Obama had such a polarizing presidency that he had cost Democrats many governorships, many state legislatures, and many seats in the House and the Senate.

This election Republicans are starting to feel this same thing. The Trump presidency are pushing many suburban Republicans away from him, and towards Democrats down the ballot.

Look at the recent Mississippi governors race -- where in 2015 Republicans had won by 34 percent. This year they won it by about 5 percent. That's too close for comfort in a race which is typically a lock down Republican.

Or the fact that the Virginia state legislature has now flipped to Dem.

Take this point from the article I'm referencing:

Quote from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-anti-republican-trend-11573065037

This turnout trend has now continued for three Novembers, and Republicans who try to explain it away are fooling themselves. The GOP under Mr. Trump is losing more college-educated suburban voters, especially women, than it is gaining rural voters or working-class former Democrats.

Republicans have to start picking up college educated suburban voters again, or this is going to get very interesting come 2020.

angolo saxian democracy is just 50+-1% coin throws, the population doesnt consider itself to be in a democracy
people don't really follow to be in a democracy as well, so its more something like a sinus curve, people constantly try to somehow punish those in power. and elect the opposition

TECSHARE

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Quote from: squatz1 on November 07, 2019, 11:10:38 AM

Throughout the 2012 election, Obama had such a polarizing presidency that he had cost Democrats many governorships, many state legislatures, and many seats in the House and the Senate.

This election Republicans are starting to feel this same thing. The Trump presidency are pushing many suburban Republicans away from him, and towards Democrats down the ballot.

Look at the recent Mississippi governors race -- where in 2015 Republicans had won by 34 percent. This year they won it by about 5 percent. That's too close for comfort in a race which is typically a lock down Republican.

Or the fact that the Virginia state legislature has now flipped to Dem.

Take this point from the article I'm referencing:

Quote from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-anti-republican-trend-11573065037

This turnout trend has now continued for three Novembers, and Republicans who try to explain it away are fooling themselves. The GOP under Mr. Trump is losing more college-educated suburban voters, especially women, than it is gaining rural voters or working-class former Democrats.

Republicans have to start picking up college educated suburban voters again, or this is going to get very interesting come 2020.

No, its called, the "We have destroyed our own states, now we are flooding to red areas to parasitically feed of of them for a while until they collapse too." effect.

squatz1

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Flying Hellfish is a Commie

Throughout the 2012 election, Obama had such a polarizing presidency that he had cost Democrats many governorships, many state legislatures, and many seats in the House and the Senate.

This election Republicans are starting to feel this same thing. The Trump presidency are pushing many suburban Republicans away from him, and towards Democrats down the ballot.

Look at the recent Mississippi governors race -- where in 2015 Republicans had won by 34 percent. This year they won it by about 5 percent. That's too close for comfort in a race which is typically a lock down Republican.

Or the fact that the Virginia state legislature has now flipped to Dem.

Take this point from the article I'm referencing:

Quote from: https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-anti-republican-trend-11573065037

This turnout trend has now continued for three Novembers, and Republicans who try to explain it away are fooling themselves. The GOP under Mr. Trump is losing more college-educated suburban voters, especially women, than it is gaining rural voters or working-class former Democrats.

Republicans have to start picking up college educated suburban voters again, or this is going to get very interesting come 2020.

Topic: Republicans are now feeling "The Obama Effect" (Read 233 times)