Topic: Retracement will finally happen (Read 563 times)

To be honest, I don't know when the bitcoin market could go backwards, things have been so out of control, that for now I don't have the Main idea of how the market is moving, the articles, other information suggest that it could lower the price, but it is not known when or how much, for the investors they always give good news and have positivity at its highest level, but as you know, the technical Beliefs are very good, but if and only if the Market moves Quickly through mathematics, which is not the case,it is Difficult to decide.

Resistance and support have been broken down, and the majority of them have already shifted into another reality. Bitcoin will undoubtedly reach the ATH of $100k, as targeted and anticipated by professional traders, but the date is unknown; one thing I do know is that it will not be sooner. Bitcoin varies steadily, and there are more opportunities to either short or long for short periods of time; scalping bitcoin at resistance levels is risky, but it is worthwhile. $27k is my entry point for bitcoin, and I'm waiting for a thorough retracement to trigger my TP on my previous trading position.     

if it has to touch a weak resistance i think it's ok to re-enter the negative market for a moment. I think that's a normal thing in crypto especially at the beginning of this year. let's wait for the middle to the end of the year usually there crypto is green enough to trade. no problem for now to do save fiat. this is important enough not to lose too much. if you feel that the loss is not too deep, it is better not to continue holding on if a negative market arrives soon.

It touches the major support before it broke the major resistance base on the chart above and reached $31k. And now the price would possibly retrace at the demand zone which I think $22k to $23k before the price continues to the upside. Sometimes it will not go down to $23k if the demand above on that price is enough to get the price higher. The next target for the price is the next supply zone which is $43k. So if you're planning to invest, I would suggest don't just invest directly, wait for the price to retrace until you can afford the price.

Just remember though that this thread was created months ago, at the start of the year wherein we are starting to make a run. So obviously, he just want to send warnings to us to be very careful during that time.

But it seems that it has been invalidated already, we have broken the resistance according to the OP of $24k-$25 many times already. And then we did touch $31k for a brief momentum until we have another correction this week at $27k.

I think it’sThere are a lot of factors that need to be considered before we can get a good price. 
 
1\. The volume of BTC is very high,2\.3\. The time it takes to buy BTC is very long,4\.5\. The price of BTC is very volatile, so it’s not a good idea to wait for the halving to happen. 
 
In my opinion, the best way to look at it is to look at the history of the BTC and the market.

I'll be frank, Bitcoin's current resistance realm is like treading on eggshells – delicate and dicey! The market's doing the cha-cha, tossing up a cacophony of signals that befuddle even the savviest soothsayers. On the one mitt, Bitcoin could Hulk-smash the mega resistance barrier and soar skyward. On the flip side, bearish vibes might sweep in, prepping a gnarly backslide.

In this murky soup, let's hit the brakes and eyeball the candles for trend confirmation before diving headfirst. Wild leaps and knee-slappers ain't gonna cut it – we need hawk-eyed monitoring, brainy breakdowns, and tactical prowess. So, beaming optimism is key, but let's keep our wits razor-sharp. Monitor the candles like an over-caffeinated owl, dismember the charts, and concoct a cunning plan that navigates this treacherous terrain. Armed with patience, grit, and a dash of serendipity, we'll conquer the tempest and claim victory on terra firma.

May 05, 2023 Mini update

The current major resistance is at around $31,000 and above, it is where a lot of sellers resides so the probability of breaking it is still low. The price already try to hit it but immediately it is immediately resisted that's why the price goes to swing low. As for the short term, the information that I perceived in the chart is something negative because there are now many too rejections so the probability of another swing low is very high. For the swing traders, this is the best time to short and I know that it will gonna be a huge retracements. SO BE CAREFUL FOR THOSE WHO WILL GO LONG ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE A FUTURES TRADER.

As for the daily pattern, the price of the bitcoin is currently testing the $29,000 but it seems got rejected also, there are a lot of signals that the market is telling to us. Does this mean that we are already in bearish season again? As for me no, because the longer time frame telling us that we are still in health price movements but when it comes to short time frame, we should be careful. Once the big retracement happens this is the time to get as much as positions that you can have. Do not ever miss that opportunity because the price will test the new base and this may be the last time that we can see that the price of bitcoin goes below $30,000 in this new market cycle.

Red days will come in these coming days or week! Take note that in order to manage your risk very well, be sure you have a solid plan and you will execute it perfectly with supreme confidece. Happy Trading!

The rally was a surprise and I have also to say that the price is already down to $20,000 once the reversal happens. 
 
In regards to the price action, I do not think there is an immediate move on it. Bitcoin price is currently trading above $4,800 on July 19th. 
In case your speculation is wrong then your assumption of bitcoin price at $20,000 is accurate or you are wrong then why this price will be above $5,000 on July 19th. 
And if you are confused about it then you are right as this would be your second entry point. 
 
I did not read what you said, it was just my assumption that it is an attempt to make the price drop below $20,000. If you think this is a bluff, then why will you wait till July 19th for it to be $5,000? It is impossible to happen, but there is one thing that the price does not fall below $20,000. That is, if you wait until July 19th then the price would not reach the current high price of $19,000. 
 
So

Well, there is always a setback, it is normal, for this, things are always done to avoid being taken by surprise, there are some traders who take advantage of setbacks to flatten down and earn a lot of money, then some buy and buy a lot, everything that they can in order to wait for the rise that they will give to bitcoin, that is something normal, however sometimes there are bearish traps and bullish traps and to determine this in my case I always read and try to see things from the point of view of volume , for me the volume says it all and obviously taking Wyckoff.

April 06, 2023 Mini update

for those who are new to this thread, kindly read my past predictions and analysis wherein, all of my bias happened. These will be my predicitions and analysis for the weekly and the daily time frame of the bitcoin. As I say before, we already in the beginning of bull run but first let's give some insight on what is bull run and why it is important for us to acquire positions as much as we can in the beginning of it. Basically thte prices of different assets during bull run are keep increasing like a stairway leading to the top, the probability of making money is really high so for me it is the best time to acquire different assets like bitcoin.

There was a major breakout that happened last month and it is the signal wherein we are approaching a good market in this year. The major resistance is at $25,000 and the BTC finally surpassed it and not it became a major support wherein there is a high probability that the price of the bitcoin will hold in these following weeks or even month.

Let's go to my bias and prediction, the next major resistance will be at $32,000, there is already a confirmation that the price is now supporting at the current major support level. It is a signal that we should acquire position before the next momentum goes up.

Get as much as position that you can between the price $27,300 - $28,800. It is the consolidation level wherein it is considered as the best time to acquire bitcoin as for today. I'll update this thread again once the price of the bitcoin reached the new resistance level at $32,000.

Goodluck and Happy Trading!

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Price of the bitcoin in weekly time frame:



Price of the bitcoin in daily time frame:

I would guess that whales could take it wherever they want to when there isn't any type of big deals at the current situation and we shouldn't be really considering it as a problem neither. I know that it is not going to end up with crazy numbers, like 50k or 10k anytime soon, those are gone and not going to happen anytime soon.

However, whales could take it to under 25k maybe or over 30k, those are still reliable numbers and I would understand that it would be something that could work for everyone. Whales can do that, they have the power to do it and charts wouldn't matter in that case if they do it, which is why I doubt that it will be an issue.

Bitcoin is known for its high volatility and one will not be able to predict what will be the outcome of Bitcoin in the next few days, bit with proper technical analysis, there will be a retracement but all this doesn't matter because whenever there's strong trends in the market, Bitcoin will always tends to move to it's direction. Top whales in the market already knows the essential spots to hit inother to turn bitcoin tot their favour. They're whales and they control the market with their high capital. Let's just be on the right track whenever bitcoin is triggering the bull or bear moves.

Also, true such a big event or good news can pump the price Bitcoin without correction. as always fundamental first no matter how smart you are on technical analyst the winner is the news or fundamental analysis.

Before do Technical Analysis is always better to do Fundamental Analysis. Good Luck everyone

That is only valid if we stay like this, so that we can trace back a bit and go back up again in the future. However, if we have a skyrocketing increase, a huge breakout, then we won't be needing it because that would also mean that it will change completely and we will have a different outlook.

Remember this is bitcoin we are talking about and that is why it's quite important to always have some sort of understanding where it's going and just a few rich whales could change it quickly. Get all those rich people at the top, bill gates, Jeff Bezos, Elon Musk, whatever you want, to say a few good things about bitcoin, and all the EMA calculations would be gone out the window.

You are correct. We need correction I hope just bounce back from 200 EMA. The purple Line is 100 EMA and those are now support and yes I think its good time to buy more when it touch purple line and I also hope price will bounce back from there and continue rise till fibbonaci 0.5 If the price rise and stable above 0.5 we good to continue the bull

in your weekly market picture it is clear that the candle has penetrated the 200 EMA, and that means there will be a bullish trend for the next move, but before that there might be a correction first. and the biggest correction that is likely to occur is at the EMA with a purple line, around $24K - $25K, I think that area will be great to buy, if it doesn't reach that support, maybe after this it will continue the uptrend. Of course all of these are just predictions, but what is clear is that I have prepared a buying area scenario to welcome the real bullish season

well ,really appreciate your info guys , but i hear silk road btc is ready to dumped in market,how u guys think about that ? approximately 51k btc in total to be dumped on this year, do u think that will make we go to range under 19k again ?

Yes that is why this is called "major"  Especially happen on a weekly timeframe.

In my opinion, the price need to be rejected first and need a little bit of correction before destroying another resistance and btw I will share an update the price already stay above 200 ema long term trend of bullish is come

What happens in these cases is that if it goes up to $28k it can continue to rise, because the whales are testing the resistance levels, if they see that there is resistance at $28k they will not continue to make the market rise, they already know that at At that level the offer is much greater, therefore they will start selling quickly to compensate for the effort they have made, this is what they do, try, in the Wyckoff method they explain it very well, as effort, and what they are capable of doing the bulls, this is like a jungle where you have to act fast and get your money back and obviously have some profit.

True, but it might take some time before we can finally break it, case in point $25k, yeah we did breach it several times already but we even didn't maintain that price for even in a 1 hour timeframe as speculators keeps on selling at that price for obvious reasons of making profits. However, it's not that strong because in the last couple of days, we again reach that price and then we maintain it for good or at least at this rally. So it means the resistance is now the support line that we are holding. $27k and it will as well be as interesting as the week will start in the next 24 hours (at least Asian Time), and we might see some push to $28k. So let's see if this is going to happen or we might have to go back and retrace.

FTX was an altcoin with full access from traders in the market. It's very possible for altcoins to crashed in the space, after all they're all liable to liquidity, the trading volume is very crucial and holders of FTX were frustrated when the coin they put their hope in dump heavily, some the top investors reciprocated the action in sueing the CEO of FTX to court inother to triggered justice to their tragic moments and lost funds. Well, I'm not surprised by their actions because most of these altcoins project ends up as scammed and defrauding their investors of their hard earn money. That same case happen to Luna because of the crashed, the CEO of Luna, Do Kwon was sued for fraud charges, so let's see where this terrible situation leads us.

Will be Hard to touch 32K level without a correction first I will share mine

Currently, bitcoin is testing 200 EMA on the weekly chart we need a day before it close when it closes above 200 EMA I think we have good bullish.

March 17, 2023 Mini Update

Does Anyone followed my advice? If yes then I want to congratulate you! My past analysis are all correct, you can read all of my past replies for proofs because all of my bias did happened. It is really good that I got a lot of position during the consolidation level of the Bitcoin. Like what I said, it is normal for the price of the bitcoin to consolidate inside the support and resistance in the weekly timeframe and now this is what I'm waiting for wherein the bitcoin will break the $25,000 Major Resistance level which is considered as a boss resistance. It is literally a boss level resistance because this is where the seller side and finally the Price surpassed it.

What does this Mean? It only means that we are now in Bull Run. I'll give my analysis again and it is up to you guys if you follow it or not. Buy now because there will a huge upward momentum that will happen in these following days and weeks. Make sure that you have a good risk management and pre define risks consisting of entry point, cut loss, tp, trail stop and a lot of scenarios in your head. Anything can still happen so my bias may still be invalidated.

If you miss out my past advices then start taking full responsibility. The opportunities and rewards in the market are so great so you must be prepared if you have knowledge and basic skills in trading.


Good luck and happy trading again!

Current Price of the weekly timeframe:



Current Price of the daily timeframe:

When, do you predict, will that eventuality for Bitcoin to break $25,000? Will it be in two or three months? Because for me, while it's possible that your prediction will happen in two or three months, I believe Bitcoin might go touch $16,000 again because of bearish macro-economic conditions around the world. BUT if we zoom out to the maximum, it's an easy prediction that eventually, Bitcoin will surge over $25,000. Especially a few months before the halving.

Mini Update March 13, 2023

Does my prediction is correct again? take time to read my past updates on my analysis regarding the price and the movement of the bitcoin. I said that it is considered as healthy move that the price retrace on the level of $20,000. I also mention that I'll get as much as position becauseu the price is currently at the major support. Luckily, I followed my plan and I have big positions in a lot of coins and I'm currently 30% up in my total portfolio.

A lot of people got scared because of the retracement of the bitcoin, it only shows that they do not fully understand the psychology and market sentiment. As for my next prediction, the price of the bitcoin will consolidate and eventually break the $25,000. Take note that it is really good time to acquire positions in the consolidation level so guys good luck and happy trading again! If you want to make money then consider my analysis but also make sure to have good risk management and solid plan.

The current weekly chart as of now:


The current daily chart as of now:

for traders, taking advantage of the major support area can be used as an opportunity to buy, and technically speaking there will be a reflection in the support area that you are drawing, and we can place the maximum profit target in the major resistance area, and of course we have to place a stop loss to anticipate when the market goes not according to plan, but again we don't know in the medium term or long term whether it will continue to rise, or even fall back.

That is why i prefer Elliot wave as a strategy when dealing with trending markets. For every impulsive wave there is a correction wave awaiting to oppose the larger trend. Despite the retracement move the market is still keeping up with a higher high uptrend. I guess $19k will form a very strong support for a good buying opportunity.

The retracement finally came, I started to anticipate it back in January because the price is resisting in the Major Resistance above. The sellers overcome the buyers and the supply is much higher than in demand that is why we see a massive pullback. This is only validating that the price of bitcoin is making a healthy movement because it needs consolidation for the bitcoin to breakout the Major Resistance around $25,000.

We are currently experiencing red days in these past days but is it good or bad? As you can see in the weekly time frame below, the price is nowo in the major support where it is considered as buyer side. Which only means that there is a high possibility that the price will bounce in this area. If the price bounce in this area then the movement of the bitcoin is very healthy and we can a upward movement in the following days if this happen. Right now, I'm planning to entry to get as much as position in the major support for me to not be miss out.

Happy trading and Goodluck

This is the weekly time frame of the bitcoin:


This is the daily time frame of the bitcoin:

We quickly forgot that nothing is too strong to break below or above. If we think back to the FTX crash, when the market was dumping extensively on roller coasters and there was no support or resistance because of innumerable fears, we suddenly forgot all of that and turned bullish once more. Some were predicting $40k before June, but they all forgot that users have yet to see the thousands and hundreds of people who are still stuck on FTX. When the FTX continue case in court, many altcoins people have invested in end up not breathing again, the same $20k may be easily shattered.

March 06, 2023 MINI UPDATE.

The Major resistance is so strong, the sellers overcome the buyers that is the reason why we saw a red market in these past days.

Does this mean that it is already bearish? The answer is No! I expected that the price will resist in this area many times because it is a major resistance where the possibility of resisting in that area is high. Why the movement of the bitcoin in weekly timeframe is considered as good? The answer is because of the consolidation. The current price of the bitcoin is moving inside the box where it building a momentum upwards. It can be a good sign that there's something is cooking. We can only be invalidated if the Major support will not hold. Expect a bull run if the price of the bitcoin breakouts in the Major Resistance especially in $25,000.

I agree that it will go up, and it's already in green a bit and I think it will stay green for a while and we will go up. However, that doesn't mean that we should be too excited about it, it's not guaranteed yet, and even if it does go up, that doesn't mean it will stay up neither and we could have some bad results.

This is why it's so important to keep investing, so that you could wait out all these ups and downs and navigate yourself through these volatile periods. If you could do that, and you could hold tight and wait for better prices in the end, it may take months or even maybe over a year before we break over ATH again, but when it happens, it will be all worth the wait.

This is already given, the level of $20,000 is now the strong level. As on the peak of the bull run 2017-2018, the peak was around nearly $20,000.
So for now, I can consider it as a significant level because look when after we break that level this year, it's always now above $20,000 and that level is now acting as a support.

So far Bitcoin has held the $22k level very well. I had expected it to retrace at least a couple thousand dollars a number of days ago but it has held on to the $6k-$7k gains it started on a month ago.

Will be interesting to see what happens. The market so far doesn't seem to want to see a retracement, but I also wouldn't expect it to break out of the <$25k bottom any time soon. Which leaves it doing what it has been doing for a bit now - just hovering in the $22k/23k/24k range. But I would think at some point we'll see at least a short drop to like $20k in the next few weeks and investors will get at least one last chance to load up a bit lower in this bottom bear market range.

You're right there, the funding fee is also neutral to bearish on most exchanges suggesting a drop in the btc price (since long numbers are higher than shorts).
I am shorting small qty at the current levels at 23k in anticipation of a retest of 20k level. The spx and american markets are also supporting a dump. Although the federal interest rate decision was good , but the market didnt take it seriously in any direction yet.

Nice analysis, I’m waiting for this retracement around 25K area before I short since it’s the known strong resistance but 24K grows to become much stronger resistance which means those who put sell order on 25K level reposition a little bit lower that result for this strong resistance.

I know that this retracement is healthy but I’m worried about the short position number. The current number of short position on Bitfinex is still very low while the price is already correcting which means this correction is due to retail traders taking profit already. There’s might be a chance that the support will break once this bear get the opportunity to control the trend by injecting huge volume of short position once again. Let’s how the price will play on the coming weeks. Nice thread you got here.

My analysis is still accurate, I expected that the price will resist because there is a major resistance around $24,000 to $25,0000. The price hit the supply zone that causes downward movement, anyway it is healthy and it is just a normal retrace. I expect that this may go lower where the price may hit the $20,000 again. Let's see what will happen to the price in the next few weeks.

Note that this chart is a weekly timeframe. So I'm giving analysis long term and not short term. Be careful because price may dump in these following days. 

The retracement may not actually be as terrible as going to plunge below $16k, but the sentiments will help the price to a level probably just above $20K still and goes back to bullish again til it reaches another major resistance. Call it retracement or correction but the market is going to be better once it does that. But even when I say this, all are still speculations.

Usually it is the real thing to happen in market when the price go up or down. Liquidity and volatility is what traders use to trace or chart out the market direction and with this, it is understandable that the movement or waves are not steadily in one direction except it is going on trend but it will be for a particular moment.

Even if we can't predict the next move, there's always a chance that price will go back for retracement. Price is always seeks for liquidity and if the liquidity was taken it is uses to fuel the price to move to the opposite direction. As we can see in the chart, there's a huge gap and that gap is possible target of price before it make another HH.

That's to be expected.

It won't really just be a straight line that will continue up to $24k-$25k but it has to be retraced and had a dip somehow before it reaches there. But for the meantime, while it's staying on $21k then everyone should get hold of it or still wait for some confirmation until it finally moves to its resistance.

It will always be tricky but then, if you're for the long term that will be good.

The resistance region seems to start from 23K though, the price has been hovering around that region for a long time. Rejections or retracements usually happen almost immediately after a pump. The current situation is a little confusing thou, but we hope for the best.

About whether it's good or bad? I think this just the market being normal and not moving in one straight line as some people expect.

But, we have not tested around $23,700 levels for only once which means in my opinion, we can expect bitcoin market to keep trying to penetrate $24k to $25k levels before making a retracement. Yeah, it might be too early to expect for a retracement. Hopefully we are still in the middle of a short term bullish wave which may extend up to $27k levels in coming days.

Regardless of whether it is good or bad, retracement is just part of every wave hence we need to accept and must look for perfect reversal point to make better DCA. We may not have bitcoin to break $20k levels; so we may keep buying around $21k-$20k levels.

It is normal for price to retrace after some bull move and if this happens it won't be a surprise. The resistance levels around 21,000 couldn't stop price to jump to 23,000 and now we have seen a little stop at 23,000.

Hence, I think the next coming week is going to determine if the price level of 23k will be a strong resistance to push price down for a bull correction before the next move but for now, I'm going to stay and watch until the new week to avoid being trapped on the weekend because it is always funny during the weekend.

It’s so early to conclude on this outcome because the current week is not yet over and we don’t if this week candle is a doji or not to confirm retracement. Using Bollinger Bands on the weekly timeframe chart shows the current price is sitting on the upper limit of the Bands meaning it’s either will break out above to break the current downward channel or a retracement will happened like what stated on your TA. But still it’s too early and needs a confirmation this weekend.

Bitcoin usually make a strong move during weekends since this rally started. I don’t believe too on straight line when it comes to chart but the current rally is not the typical pump and hype buy can always occur anytime whenever traders feels that the current setback is a perfect opportunity to enter in Bitcoin.

There is simply no reason for the price to see another "crash" again specially below the previous resistance which is now a strong buy support. So unless something significant happens to the world economy again, it is highly unlikely to see any kind of major drops.

Whether things are going to be good or bad depends on how healthy the trends from now on are going to be like. A healthy rise where the investors start coming back slowly and buy bitcoin before it shoots up is a good thing but panic buys where price shoots up and creates high volatility is never good.

I checked the weekly candles when the bull run started and I predicted that $23000 may be the resistance that retracement may occur and it is happening like that, I used BB and RSI for the analysis, but there is possibility of the price to increase a little above the overbought market which is indicated by the upper band, because it is weekly candles, the price range is huge a little and it is around $25000 which makes me think that even if bitcoin increase above $23000, it may not go beyond $25000. Today I check the daily candle stick, it is showing a pattern that bitcoin may also rise to $25000 before the retracement, but analyses can be wrong.

Lets see what is the impact of today's 1.48b$ options expiry followed by the rate hike decision in the upcoming days (1st feb).
Although I agree with your point that we should see some sort of a correction to fall between 20k-21k range once more before flying harder, the fundamentals are going to decide the technicals. We will know soon. For me 25.2k area is where if the price goes, there is no stopping back upto 32k.

The correction will be good if we reach the next resistance level, and thus we will witness a healthy growth rather than a speculative pattern.
The coming days will be either confirmation because what happened is speculation, or the price will reach new support levels, thus officially confirming the bottom.


Does it looks good or bad? It depends on your view of the price. If you are a trader, then speculation and the change in the price means profits. If you are an investor, then the price increase is good for you.

This is the weekly timeframe of the BTC/USDT

Price don't go straight line, as a trader we should expect a bounce or a retracement after a great momentum. As you can see, the last 3 weeks of BTC/USDT was really good and finally, the price already hit the major resistance, It only means that the supply there are so high and the price already exhausted where we can expect that the price may go down up to its major support in around $19,000 to $20,000. The Major resistance is so strong at around $24,000 to $25,000. The BTC should consolidate more for the price have strong momentum to breakout.

Is it bad or is it good? Even though that the price will finally retrace, it only means a good movement for BTC because it will only confirm that we are already in bullish. The chart of bitcoin is now creating higher highs and finally it will create a higher low. We should keep in mind that having a good risk management can help us to entry better and avoid cutting huge losses. Expect a red days in these coming days

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