Reverse Bubble 2021 | Bitcointalksearch.org

pooya87

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 17, 2021, 09:07:09 AM

when most bets I know of are on 100k by December, it feels like there is some risk a lot of market gamblers will wind down their risk as soon as this target hits.

I personally don't put that much thought into this group of traders because they don't shape the long term movement of bitcoin, so far their effects have been very short. A good example of such a scenario is whenever we hit the previous ATH after years of trying, $1.2k in 2017 or $20k this year. This are big targets that these gamblers start selling at. $100k won't be any different and at worst they will postpone the continuation of the rise for a month.

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A far better scenario is for the new phase to continue gathering momentum over this Q4 and then hope the inertia only comes into play end of Q1 2022.

That's what I'm hoping for too.

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Quote from: pooya87 on October 17, 2021, 01:47:19 AM

Quote from: buwaytress on October 16, 2021, 08:43:04 AM

6 months reverse bubble, is 6 months for actual too much to ask you think?

It is hard to say, we are just entering the new phase and have to wait and see how much momentum we are going to get from here. With that said I believe that the ATH (bubble peak) was postponed due to this prolonged downtrend to first quarter of 2022 so 6 months doesn't seem off.

Yeah, reason I'm "hoping" for 6 months is I'd really like December not to be the end of this ride. It's already moved in a longer timeframe than the previous, but when even PlanB (not a fan, but since his model is apparently the most accurate thus far, gotta give some credit) doesn't seem too keen to put hard numbers down beyond December, and when most bets I know of are on 100k by December, it feels like there is some risk a lot of market gamblers will wind down their risk as soon as this target hits. A far better scenario is for the new phase to continue gathering momentum over this Q4 and then hope the inertia only comes into play end of Q1 2022.

pooya87

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Quote from: buwaytress on October 16, 2021, 08:43:04 AM

6 months reverse bubble, is 6 months for actual too much to ask you think?

It is hard to say, we are just entering the new phase and have to wait and see how much momentum we are going to get from here. With that said I believe that the ATH (bubble peak) was postponed due to this prolonged downtrend to first quarter of 2022 so 6 months doesn't seem off.

Quote from: STT on October 16, 2021, 04:40:45 PM

Problem is the rate of ascent is a little too aggressive to expect it to rise for 6 months.

It is actually pretty slow by bitcoin standards, a "too agressive ascent" would have been going from $45k to $65k in half an hour.
Besides it is the nature of bubble bursts to be fast.

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Some of these people borrowed money to buy and they'll cash it back out,

Do you have any proof to back this up or are you just guessing?

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Quote from: STT on October 16, 2021, 04:40:45 PM

Problem is the rate of ascent is a little too aggressive to expect it to rise for 6 months. Its going to reset within that even if it resolves upwards. Some of these people borrowed money to buy and they'll cash it back out, if it stays above 50k the whole time that will be bullish. Some expected 100k this year but staying consistently higher for 6 months would make that become of a possible reality in the next year.

I really don't think it's a quick ascend though, we have seen lower lows for this year, at $28k-$29k, so it was not an easy ride going to new all time high or even $100k as everyone is really hoping.

And then bitcoin narrative also change, there are some companies going public or slipping under the radar and having bitcoin in their balance sheet. So let's see when the bubble will be burst? hitting above $100k? $200k?

STT

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Problem is the rate of ascent is a little too aggressive to expect it to rise for 6 months. Its going to reset within that even if it resolves upwards. Some of these people borrowed money to buy and they'll cash it back out, if it stays above 50k the whole time that will be bullish. Some expected 100k this year but staying consistently higher for 6 months would make that become of a possible reality in the next year.

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Must feel pretty good to get in nice and smooth on the bubble wave. So if it's popped now, I expect we are about to enter the other, actual, bubble -- most important question for me is how long do we got? For some reason, even s2f won't really say much beyond December but if the reverse lasted a lot longer, why shouldn't the actual also go on for a protracted period, right?

6 months reverse bubble, is 6 months for actual too much to ask you think?

pooya87

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This reverse bubble was more similar to the 2018 reverse bubble and lasted a lot longer than I initially expected but surely enough this was also an unstable state that had to go away so as the "reverse bubble" "reverse popped" in 5 months we saw the price go back to more realistic values.

There were 4 stages in this pop.
1. The initial denial of the bubble where the FUD campaign is the strongest but the least effective. All it does is creating doubt and preventing people from buying but nobody is selling anymore so the price is only affected by manipulators and shorters most of whom are losing a lot of money.
2. The slow burst that price keeps pushing up while bear-whales lose more money as they keep trying to go against the market.
3. The bear whales last stance where out of denial of the reversal they try their best to push the price lower and fail for the last time.
4. The complete bubble burst where price goes back above $60k and continues rising higher heading for the previous ATH to set a new record.

Obviously there were other incidents that prolonged some of these stages such as the Chinese FUD, hashrate drop, etc. But the general trend remains the same as any other Reverse Bubble™.

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Quote from: Silberman on June 14, 2021, 03:16:47 PM

Quote from: Kittygalore on June 05, 2021, 05:27:49 AM

We don't know yet but I am positive that the prices are going to go up in the next month, pretty sure we might be able to see one or two ATH for bitcoin.

Doubtful, I think we are in an accumulation period, so I am taking advantage of the low price and buying the bitcoin that I can, also even if I turn out to be wrong and this is a bear market then I still bought bitcoin 50% away from its ATH so I got a good entry point, right now we are seeing bitcoin challenging the 40k level and if we can remain above that level that will be a good sign that the feared bear market is not coming so soon.

dicrypto everything that is impossible can happen and sometimes doesn't make sense but that's the reality that happens, because the characters are already formed. the right thing you have done where now bitcoin reached the correction point from ATH to -50% and clearly the right time to be able to buy. although I can't conclude when is the best time to buy bitcoin because anytime for bitcoin is the same, because bitcoin will increase from when we buy it and it will continue to happen in bitcoin.

I strongly believe bitcoin by the end of the year will increase as originally planned to create a fantastic renewable ATH.
currently the price is very stable and this is the behavior that bitcoin does if it wants to increase sharply. it will go down and up several times and even break through $40K but will go down again, bitcoin shows. in time bitcoin will increase and will penetrate gradually starting with $50K first.

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Quote from: Kittygalore on June 05, 2021, 05:27:49 AM

We don't know yet but I am positive that the prices are going to go up in the next month, pretty sure we might be able to see one or two ATH for bitcoin.

Doubtful, I think we are in an accumulation period, so I am taking advantage of the low price and buying the bitcoin that I can, also even if I turn out to be wrong and this is a bear market then I still bought bitcoin 50% away from its ATH so I got a good entry point, right now we are seeing bitcoin challenging the 40k level and if we can remain above that level that will be a good sign that the feared bear market is not coming so soon.

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Honestly TA aside this has happened now with regularity in crypto. I'm not saying the same cycle will happen but due to the largely crypto uneducated money that comes into crypto it feeds large spikes and falls due to greed and fear. Evident by the mass amount of people that use exchanges as wallets. I'd say until that is a thing of the past that we will have large greedy spikes and crazy fearful falls.

STT

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Sharp pull back but its not especially outside the boundaries of what its done previously and my context would be the lows of March in that spike down from the virus shock news, a never before expected event. Relative to the long term low in that way its way up and I consider the scale of its movement in that way.
Right now it does look negative some but its developing situation and I think its mostly about wringing the rag dry of all the sellers who wont hold at any price unless its rapidly rising, some people just dont have patience or belief to be within this space and so they must depart at least until we are rapidly rising again when some will return to ride that far easier path. Its a natural cycle, its recognisable to me and Im not yet surprised by this action.

my take on this weekly graph view and its just a brief snapshot but I think we do need to meet that 50 week average or prices in that area to resolve selling and weakness in balance vs still ongoing interest in BTC developing further. A rocket has stages to its movement, some fall away and that can be alarming but I think revising prices is still a positive here harsh as it might seem.

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We obviously don't know whether it will do it again. All signs point to it carrying on, but this is bitcoin and it does what it wants. I can only guess the price increase is due to a supply crunch from the halving hitting, it seems to take just over a year to properly arrive though.

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Yep that’s it.. The 4 year cycle. But I’m asking, without any of the bs, what assures it will follow the same exact cycle this time? I mean what’s the reason? That’s just the way it is? Faith?

Anyway, it seems to be accumulating rn. Let’s see...

pooya87

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Quote from: tokeweed on June 05, 2021, 10:47:49 AM

because it’s part of the 4 year cycle. I mean really?

Speaking of the 4 year cycle lets take a look at the previous one compared to the current one in a chart I made a couple of days ago. It uses the ATH to ATH as its period and shows percentage drop and rise:

It would be very interesting to see the 4 year cycle is broken when the first 3 years were pretty much the same.

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With the market falling everytime Elon Musk tweets something negative about BTC?

The market isn't "falling every time" he tweets. It fell only once then there was a downward trend of panic sellers. Nowadays whenever he makes a negative tweet it only excites a handful of idiots and the market as a whole remains uninterested otherwise price wouldn't have stayed within the same 5% range!

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 27, 2021, 02:54:29 AM

Quote from: Bttzed03 on May 27, 2021, 02:09:57 AM

After Elon tweeted about Tesla's diamond hands, Billionaires such as Ray Dalio and Darl Icahn have come out in the open and made positive statements about bitcoin.

For many years I've been always saying that rich people have been buying bitcoin and accumulating it for a very long time. That includes those that are most negative about bitcoin such as Warren Buffet. We will continue seeing most of them reveal their real position and we may even get a feel of how much of their net-worth they have "parked in" bitcoin.

The wealthy have certainly been accumulating Bitcoin and especially over the last few weeks
$60k was a taste of what is achievable this year and beyond and then it drops to the mid
$30k's, this presents everyone with an opportunity to buy discounted Bitcoin.

The idea of the Reverse Bubble is something I havent thought of but the
OP is very enlightening.

I liken the current market as a spring slowly compressing...its anyone's
guess when that spring is going to release from too much pressure.

tokeweed

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Quote from: buwaytress on June 05, 2021, 05:16:08 AM

Willy bot back eh tokes? I'm a simple guy and always have seen TA as entertaining rather than portent of things to come. I still feel I can get a good sense of overall crypto sentiment since I work in the "industry" and there are some levels of optimism I believe I can match with the past cycle that leads me to think this reverse bubble is at least indication that alt momentum is entering the post hype phase (shall I say the dirty defi word?).

Fud not yet apparent now is on these defi protocols and lending platforms... Coming, no surprise, from self professed bitcoin maximalists.

That tells me Bitcoin itself isn't done yet and the backlash from failed defi has yet to come.

Rally incoming, in other words.

Just saying.. I’d take any sane analysis on why BTC would trend up to 500k than telling me 500k will just happen because it’s part of the 4 year cycle. I mean really? With the market falling everytime Elon Musk tweets something negative about BTC? Lolol.

Here’s the thing and maxis would surely hate this: Elon Musk will sell BTC for ETH come December. I could feel it.

Kittygalore

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We don't know yet but I am positive that the prices are going to go up in the next month, pretty sure we might be able to see one or two ATH for bitcoin.

buwaytress

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Willy bot back eh tokes? I'm a simple guy and always have seen TA as entertaining rather than portent of things to come. I still feel I can get a good sense of overall crypto sentiment since I work in the "industry" and there are some levels of optimism I believe I can match with the past cycle that leads me to think this reverse bubble is at least indication that alt momentum is entering the post hype phase (shall I say the dirty defi word?).

Fud not yet apparent now is on these defi protocols and lending platforms... Coming, no surprise, from self professed bitcoin maximalists.

That tells me Bitcoin itself isn't done yet and the backlash from failed defi has yet to come.

Rally incoming, in other words.

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Quote from: DarkIT on June 02, 2021, 03:16:20 PM

I had come to know,the bitcoin was a legal tender in India.India was a huge market for the most of world product.So the people of India will inverse in huge manner.Because they can easily convert to their fiat.And their is no last man run to reach the race.We no need to worry about the ban of bitcoin again in India.All private sector will look into it to get profit from it.

Yes. A new circular was issued by the RBI on 31st May 2021 regarding cryptocurrency legality in India.

Customer Due Diligence for transactions in Virtual Currencies (VC)
https://rbi.org.in/scripts/NotificationUser.aspx?Mode=0&Id=12103

As per the RBI circular, banks have been asked to stop citing its 2018 circular (which, in essence, banned cryptocurrencies in India but was overturned by the Supreme Court in March 2020).

DarkIT

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I had come to know,the bitcoin was a legal tender in India.India was a huge market for the most of world product.So the people of India will inverse in huge manner.Because they can easily convert to their fiat.And their is no last man run to reach the race.We no need to worry about the ban of bitcoin again in India.All private sector will look into it to get profit from it.

tokeweed

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^ Dunno I just can’t see it in the way you tried to explain it. It’s like saying that BTC will go trend up to 500k just because. There has to be a reason for increased demand. I’ll take ‘the willy bot is back’ than telling me ‘it’s the 4 year cycle and that’s just the way it is.’. You know what I mean?

pooya87

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Quote from: davis196 on May 31, 2021, 07:12:31 AM

There's no such term as "reverse bubble" in the world of economy and finance.

Well someone has to come up with a name for any new phenomenon to be able to easily describe it Grin

However as much as I like to take credit for the word I'm not the first. A random example: https://www.butlerresearch.com/july-15-2015-a-reverse-bubble/

In any case only the future can prove what this really is when we look back at the charts. Just as we now can see without a doubt that $20k by the end of 2017 was indeed a bubble.

Quote from: tokeweed on May 31, 2021, 01:47:26 PM

I would looove to see 500k but I don’t know man. It seems like a very tall ask. I don’t see it happening. But then again I never really thought BTC would break out its 2017 high for at least 10 years. So we’ll see.

$500k will be the peak of the next bubble which we will either see by the end of this year or first quarter of next year and it is based on past performances with a simple extrapolation. And I don't believe the market is going to change the 4 year cycle just yet.

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Quote from: Vaskiy on May 31, 2021, 06:21:25 AM

Market seems to be holding the support trend line. $35000 in my view looks like minor resistance point. The price will probably test $37000 - $38000. Based on the support pattern we can expect the further move close to $45000 upwards and towards $25000 if the support got broken and falls back to $33000. This doesn't look like a bubble, right now it is on the edge of gaining resistance.

Likewise, I believe that the bull run is not over and that we are in the accumulation phase.
If this proves to be true it could trigger massive influx of traders and investors into the space. Which is positive for bitcoin and also positive for many other cryptocurrencies.

My call is to stay long in bitcoin for long term and buy the dips and hope for a rally.

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Quote from: crzy on May 31, 2021, 07:58:22 AM

We are actually on a bull trap phase where we saw some up trend but the volume is not that strong anymore, it will totally burst soon and we will stay low for a while. After that, we're going into the last phase of the cycle, and when we are able to rise again a new cycle will start until we reach a new peak again, time will tell it to us, always be ready.

Whatever phase it is now the market is way too hard to determine especially when the hype and Fuds happen. I temember doing charting then suddenly some tweets appears that makes the price moves faster or at different direction. The graph OP posted is a good analysis but we cant still tell whether how long we can keep on that phase since the volume can changed everytime.

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Quote from: SquallLeonhart on May 30, 2021, 02:18:17 PM

The current 50% downfall must be part of bullish trend and this will definitely help the FOMO to get intensified. FOMO is the key to get us into "bubbles". We yet to see full fledged FOMO and then bubbles in 2021 bull trends.

I agree. We can definitely see a good amount of increase in the price of bitcoin very soon. It is not going to be something major, it is not going to be careless stuff, it is going to be something that really shows how great bitcoin can be if we keep this up.

What we need is that this sideways needs to go on for a little while longer and if we can convince people not to sell and create a bit of small hype overtime, then that small hype will grow and grow and grow and then suddenly pops and becomes a huge increase. That is what I believe we can do if we stay calm, all we need is to keep people from selling and that only happens with good news, which means we need some good news in crypto these days. I do not know when that will happen or how that will happen but if some company or some person creates a good hype that means the price will not fall or even maybe go up.

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 28, 2021, 12:06:51 AM

Quote from: yhiaali3 on May 27, 2021, 04:20:57 AM

Although you did not mention the reason for these bitcoin price bubbles, but I think the news is the first reason, unfortunately the cryptocurrency market is now being managed on social media and this is really painful.

I wouldn't say "manged by" specially for bitcoin but news, FUD and manipulation have always been part and parcel of the cryptocurrency market, more so for altcoins. The recent crash was due to a widespread FUD campaign about bitcoin with old topics such as "energy consumption" and "China bans bitcoin".

Quote from: Poker Player on May 27, 2021, 05:48:30 AM

Interesting post. What is not 100% clear to me is how to calculate the "intrinsic value". I guess taking the S2F as a model for example. In the stock market there is a rough consensus on how to calculate intrinsic value based on evolution of cash flows, debt, equity, etc. but I think regarding Bitcoin there is no such consensus.

You are right and computing the "intrinsic value" of anything has always been very difficult. People have come up with all kinds of stuff to come up with an estimation. For bitcoin some even used the "production (ie. mining) cost" which is completely wrong if you ask me because how much it costs to mine bitcoin depends on the price not the price depending on cost.

I would looove to see 500k but I don’t know man. It seems like a very tall ask. I don’t see it happening. But then again I never really thought BTC would break out its 2017 high for at least 10 years. So we’ll see.

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Quote from: crzy on May 31, 2021, 07:58:22 AM

We are actually on a bull trap phase where we saw some up trend but the volume is not that strong anymore, it will totally burst soon and we will stay low for a while. After that, we're going into the last phase of the cycle, and when we are able to rise again a new cycle will start until we reach a new peak again, time will tell it to us, always be ready.

the bull trap phase? Why? I think this is a bear trap phase, look at the $ 30k, yes wick happened,
maybe it is a sign that the market is still bullish and really bullish for the mid term, the wick is a good sign,
because strong support is working, so if a bear trap occurs of course you have to buy Bitcoin now,
and if you look at it now is the accumulation phase, just buy and keep hold

crzy

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We are actually on a bull trap phase where we saw some up trend but the volume is not that strong anymore, it will totally burst soon and we will stay low for a while. After that, we're going into the last phase of the cycle, and when we are able to rise again a new cycle will start until we reach a new peak again, time will tell it to us, always be ready.

davis196

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There's no such term as "reverse bubble" in the world of economy and finance.
I call the lack of balance between market price and intrinsic value undervaluation and overvaluation-not reverse bubble and normal bubble.
I assume that,by "reverse bubble",you mean that the market price of Bitcoin was undervalued in certain months.I guess that you are right about the end of 2018.However,I cannot agree that the 2021 market price of Bitcoin is facing a "reverse bubble" or undervaluation.I think that the real price of BTC is somewhere between 20K and 30K USD.Everything above 30K are the remains of the FOMO phase,before Elon Musk,decided to dump Bitcoin.

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Market seems to be holding the support trend line. $35000 in my view looks like minor resistance point. The price will probably test $37000 - $38000. Based on the support pattern we can expect the further move close to $45000 upwards and towards $25000 if the support got broken and falls back to $33000. This doesn't look like a bubble, right now it is on the edge of gaining resistance.

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 29, 2021, 12:48:50 AM

we never reached bubbles like 2017 and we haven't touched $500k yet to start the year long bear market.

If my memory serves me better, in 2017 we were trading below $5k till August/September (even we were in bull trend since January) but in last 3 to 4 months we had 4x from from then ATH (not from 2013's ATH). That must be the best scenario to describe how market will react in bubble region. I mean 3x growth is nothing for bitcoin markets and the real bullish trend yet to arrive to experience the state of "bubble phase" in bitcoin markets.

The current 50% downfall must be part of bullish trend and this will definitely help the FOMO to get intensified. FOMO is the key to get us into "bubbles". We yet to see full fledged FOMO and then bubbles in 2021 bull trends.

Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net/bitcoin-rainbow-chart

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Quote from: tokeweed on May 28, 2021, 02:08:45 PM

If not, then we’re going towards bear territory and recovery would take years before a trend back up.

You don't have to worry about that. bull market does occur every few years (in my opinion every 4 years). this is part of the bitcoin cycle, and it will continue to happen forever. This cycle will give you the best time to sell and buy.

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Quote from: Gozie51 on May 25, 2021, 02:22:49 PM

Was there a crash in 2020 ? No.

Was the crash because of covid-19? No.

Instead 2020 is the beginning of the bull for cryptocurrency because the investors and government were running out of contact and maintaining of social distance. And cryptocurrency became an investment opportunity.

i agree there no crash that happen in year 2020 wherein it became the key instead to convince more ppl to invest in the crypto market because of the pandemic reason bitcoin really achieved those all time high values and some of the projects really made a good improvement during the year.. And now year 2021 is the year that really makes the market fell like a rock.. Some says this just the beginning and market will improve more after this like what happened year 2017. I hope its true..

pooya87

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Quote from: tokeweed on May 28, 2021, 02:08:45 PM

if there was to be a recovery back to the trend up, it has to happen right away.

That is recovery from a very small drop such as anything around 10%, but after such a gigantic drop of nearly 50% the recovery will take a very long time partially because the investors would be very scared to jump back in and partially because the accumulation of cheap coins takes a long time.

If you check any similar huge dumps you can see they all take time to recover.

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If not, then we’re going towards bear territory and recovery would take years before a trend back up.

If we enter a bear market (which I find highly unlikely) it won't be "years" it will be months. Because we never reached bubbles like 2017 and we haven't touched $500k yet to start the year long bear market.

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^ You don’t think it already did? Cos I really think it did and if there was to be a recovery back to the trend up, it has to happen right away. If not, then we’re going towards bear territory and recovery would take years before a trend back up. But that’s just me in my mood rn. Lol.

But here... Take a look at the chart this way. Is that bullish or bearish?

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 28, 2021, 12:06:51 AM

Quote from: Poker Player on May 27, 2021, 05:48:30 AM

Interesting post. What is not 100% clear to me is how to calculate the "intrinsic value". I guess taking the S2F as a model for example. In the stock market there is a rough consensus on how to calculate intrinsic value based on evolution of cash flows, debt, equity, etc. but I think regarding Bitcoin there is no such consensus.

You are right and computing the "intrinsic value" of anything has always been very difficult. People have come up with all kinds of stuff to come up with an estimation. For bitcoin some even used the "production (ie. mining) cost" which is completely wrong if you ask me because how much it costs to mine bitcoin depends on the price not the price depending on cost.

I do not know if calculating the "intrinsic value" in the stock can be used for crypto, but I think this is one of the calculations by doing a little search.

[/quote]https://www.fool.com/investing/how-to-invest/stocks/intrinsic-value/[/quote]

No one will know when the bubble will pop.

Maybe it needs more than one month or more because bitcoin does not give the sign. The news can affect the bubble and we already saw what happened before.

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Quote from: yhiaali3 on May 27, 2021, 04:20:57 AM

Although you did not mention the reason for these bitcoin price bubbles, but I think the news is the first reason, unfortunately the cryptocurrency market is now being managed on social media and this is really painful.

I wouldn't say "manged by" specially for bitcoin but news, FUD and manipulation have always been part and parcel of the cryptocurrency market, more so for altcoins. The recent crash was due to a widespread FUD campaign about bitcoin with old topics such as "energy consumption" and "China bans bitcoin".

Quote from: Poker Player on May 27, 2021, 05:48:30 AM

Interesting post. What is not 100% clear to me is how to calculate the "intrinsic value". I guess taking the S2F as a model for example. In the stock market there is a rough consensus on how to calculate intrinsic value based on evolution of cash flows, debt, equity, etc. but I think regarding Bitcoin there is no such consensus.

You are right and computing the "intrinsic value" of anything has always been very difficult. People have come up with all kinds of stuff to come up with an estimation. For bitcoin some even used the "production (ie. mining) cost" which is completely wrong if you ask me because how much it costs to mine bitcoin depends on the price not the price depending on cost.

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Obviously we are talking about a chart and that is why there is really nothing I can put a counter-argument about the chart itself. However one thing is for sure, history doesn't have to repeat itself constantly there is nothing that says something that happened in the past will not happen in the future but there is nothing that guarantees it will happen neither.

This is why I believe if we will have the same thing we may end up having the same thing but there is a good chance we may not have anything at all that resembles this. Which is why we should not be considering this as the same thing. I believe there was a huge correction but we had a good amount of recovery already and we are looking bull run once again that is what it matters and as long as we do not crash again that's fine.

uninterestedparty33

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So...a bubble.

A reverse bubble would be unrealistically low prices.

tokeweed

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Quote from: Untomabur on May 25, 2021, 05:55:49 PM

Quote from: tokeweed on May 25, 2021, 03:17:46 PM

Be careful of the bounce cos it could just be a dead cat bounce. There are prolly more people who want to get out rn but they’re waiting for a better price to sell. I mean I’d like to see the market recover but I feel like it’s over guys. I should’ve listened to my gut and shorted the day when I started posting those inverted BTC charts. Lol.

thanks for the reference, honestly I don't think there will be a dead cat bounce,
but this can help with what the BTC scenario is going to be, if it is analyzed Bitcoin must be in the $ 45k to $ 50k area to be safe and can continue its positive trend,
but if still like this and being under $ 40k this is really prone, yeah beware

I still think it’s a dead cat bounce. But I don’t really care much rn. I’m down and I’m not willing to even think about grinding it all back again atm... Maybe in a week or two. But I wouldn’t mind seeing it trend back up like what it’s doing now tho. Lol.

Poker Player

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Interesting post. What is not 100% clear to me is how to calculate the "intrinsic value". I guess taking the S2F as a model for example. In the stock market there is a rough consensus on how to calculate intrinsic value based on evolution of cash flows, debt, equity, etc. but I think regarding Bitcoin there is no such consensus.

yhiaali3

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I think the recovery will take some time for Bitcoin to return to its last peak, due to a lot of negative news and concerns in the market. We will need some time to recover. I think it will be 1-3 months from now.
Although you did not mention the reason for these bitcoin price bubbles, but I think the news is the first reason, unfortunately the cryptocurrency market is now being managed on social media and this is really painful.

hugeblack

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Quote from: Bttzed03 on May 27, 2021, 02:09:57 AM

After Elon tweeted about Tesla's diamond hands, Billionaires such as Ray Dalio and Darl Icahn have come out in the open and made positive statements about bitcoin. I don't know how many more of these news we will see in the coming days but it seems to me that they already bought. This kinda supports the speculation that what happened was a coordinated FUD to let these players enter the market at a huge discount.

Many of the richest people in the world have some bitcoin indirectly due to the intersection of investment funds that are currently investing in bitcoin with many companies that operate in many fields.
Tesla was the only company that added bitcoin directly to its balance, but believe me, they will sell at one time or another, so all people who are currently investing are short-term.

These rich people have investment advisors and we all know that the price will be very low (maybe less than 30 thousand) with the end of this bubble, which will most likely be in the first quarter of next year. Therefore, all investors currently aim for short profits, not diamond hands.

The impact of investing in the first quarter of next year will be determined by how bad the financial system is and the current interest rates remain.

pooya87

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Quote from: Bttzed03 on May 27, 2021, 02:09:57 AM

After Elon tweeted about Tesla's diamond hands, Billionaires such as Ray Dalio and Darl Icahn have come out in the open and made positive statements about bitcoin.

For many years I've been always saying that rich people have been buying bitcoin and accumulating it for a very long time. That includes those that are most negative about bitcoin such as Warren Buffet. We will continue seeing most of them reveal their real position and we may even get a feel of how much of their net-worth they have "parked in" bitcoin.

Bttzed03

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Quote from: hugeblack on May 26, 2021, 11:03:47 AM

There is a strange thing that happened at the beginning of this year, which is that more Bitcoin is in the hands of users who have a better understanding of the market, so the "reverse bubble" will take a shorter time than past years, just as it happened at the beginning of this year. All you need is a lot of positive news and you could see 200% within a week.

After Elon tweeted about Tesla's diamond hands, Billionaires such as Ray Dalio and Darl Icahn have come out in the open and made positive statements about bitcoin. I don't know how many more of these news we will see in the coming days but it seems to me that they already bought. This kinda supports the speculation that what happened was a coordinated FUD to let these players enter the market at a huge discount.

Kong Hey Pakboy

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We are a bit too late for the reverse bubble but we also overstayed in the bull market. Something that concerns me is that when the pattern was really replicated, will we be able to see the same percentage increase in price of 2018 with the 2021?

danherbias07

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Bro, that's new to me and it was explained very clear. Thank you. I never had the same thought and even those whom I follow reading analysis never came to this kind of view. All they say was correction but never had a good explanation.
Suddenly, my mind went back 2017-2018 of what happened to the Bitcoin market.
From 19.7k December 2017 to 6k+ just played there for almost a year then briefly at 3k+ December 2018. This is when a reverse bubble happens, right? The price is too low and the market needs to correct it.
So we could expect a high chance it will take long again for this price to move at greater heights just like what happened before unless a big news pops out.

pooya87

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Quote from: raskolnikovx on May 26, 2021, 05:42:12 PM

I truly think we are slowly going into Bear season.
The good news is that we have some cheap coins coming

You are contradicting yourself in your first and last statement!

"Cheap coins" indicate being under valued, otherwise just being lower than the ATH is not considered being "cheap" for example after price dropped from the $20k of 2017 the lower prices such as $15k weren't "cheap" because the $20k price itself was not realistic. That is also why we had the "bear market" because price wasn't going below intrinsic value, it was going down to reach it!
If you think the bear market is coming then you are saying that price is above the intrinsic value not below it and there won't be any "cheap coins" as the price drops.

The reason why I disagree (with your first statement but agree with second) is that even at $58k bitcoin was under-valued. We can't have a bear market in situation like this.

raskolnikovx

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I truly think we are slowly going into Bear season. As always, the bull-bear transition will not be clear and lots of indicators will point to a re-flourish of the Bull market. This is how these transitions work: if people could know for sure the rising is over, then everybody would sell. I started converting some BTC to stable when we first hit 45K and kept doing so from 45 to 62K. Right now I am mostly in FIAT waiting for the prices to go down. Just as I started selling my crypto at a point and followed a plan, I will start rebuying crypto from 35K and down. I expect to buy most of my crypto between 10 and 15K. Last weekend CMC reported 1T less market cap in relation to the moment in which I saw the highest MC ever, which was 2.4T. Now it's kind of unclear b/c Elon is our friend, Goldman Sachs is embracing crypto as an asset and Dalio is vouching for Bitcoin. This last weekend, however, the massive drop and the end of the bull was way more obvious. We will see, nobody knows for sure but my guts tell me we will re-discuss this a few times more with bitcoin at lower positions until we finally accept that this bull run is done.

The good news is that we have some cheap coins coming Wink

Untomabur

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if that can happen at the price of Bitcoin of course this is good news for holders,
because a fast recovery will make traders and holders escape their frustration, but there is more bad news about the dead bounce cat,
many have discussed that Bitcoin could have experienced this pattern. , of course we have to be careful to trade now.

hugeblack

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There is a strange thing that happened at the beginning of this year, which is that more Bitcoin is in the hands of users who have a better understanding of the market, so the "reverse bubble" will take a shorter time than past years, just as it happened at the beginning of this year. All you need is a lot of positive news and you could see 200% within a week.
Therefore, just as the previous bubble burst in 8 weeks, I expect that we will witness a slow rebound to the 40-60 levels, and then a quick top, but the 80% -90% correction may be shorter than the 8-week period.

rahmatrf331

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https://i.imgur.com/3fXQC4m.png

Quote from: pooya87 on May 25, 2021, 09:19:16 AM

Every now and then bitcoin price enters unrealistic levels which would make it unstable, eventually that bubble has to pop and price has to come back to normal for it to become stable and realistic again. It is defined by comparing the current price with intrinsic value.
* When price goes way above the intrinsic value -> it enters a bubble
* When price goes way below the intrinsic value -> it enters a reverse bubble

Reverse bubbles are more common than you'd think but since their burst is not as catastrophic as the bubble bursts they go unnoticed. For example in a bubble like what we had at the start of 2018 price dropped the bubble pop from the peak ($20k) down to more realistic level of about $8k in only 4 weeks, and that's a massive bubble that popped not a small one.

We've had many reverse bubbles too. The biggest one was at the end of 2018 that "reverse popped" after 5 months.
The most recent example is from early 2020 when out of nowhere with a large FUD campaign price went as low as $3850 and this reverse bubble took about 5 weeks to reverse pop.

Now we're in yet another large FUD campaign and a moderately large reverse bubble with its bottom at $30k. How long is it going to take for this reverse bubble to reverse pop?

the market needs time to get back to normal, one of the factors where investors feel safe about the current movement of BTC and are not worried about the fall of BTC below $ 30k.

The problem of how long it will take to return, I think it can be a quarter of this year, even then, it is still in a state of trauma and has not fully recovered.

pooya87

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Quote from: Gozie51 on May 25, 2021, 02:22:49 PM

Was there a crash in 2020 ? No.
Was the crash because of covid-19? No.

You are thinking of bear market not crash. Crashes are very common in bitcoin due to its volatile market. They can also happen during the bull market, even more regularly. For example during 2017 we had dozens of crash ranging from -30% to -50%. The first chart in OP is also the crash from 2020.
What we have today is also a crash that is about -50% big (before partial recovery). It is only a matter of time before this reverse bubble bursts too and we go back to $60k+.

magneto

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Certainly. And I think that it's a matter of time before we enter one of these 'reverse bubbles'.

The market was very euphoric to start the year, and generally that tends to not end very well. I'm still expecting further corrections to price, potentially even below the $30k level which most people view as the prevailing support.

But for the long term bulls here, it's no reason to fret - it's the perfect accumulation phase, especially after affirmation from institutional players that they'd be interested.

Untomabur

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Quote from: tokeweed on May 25, 2021, 03:17:46 PM

Be careful of the bounce cos it could just be a dead cat bounce. There are prolly more people who want to get out rn but they’re waiting for a better price to sell. I mean I’d like to see the market recover but I feel like it’s over guys. I should’ve listened to my gut and shorted the day when I started posting those inverted BTC charts. Lol.

thanks for the reference, honestly I don't think there will be a dead cat bounce,
but this can help with what the BTC scenario is going to be, if it is analyzed Bitcoin must be in the $ 45k to $ 50k area to be safe and can continue its positive trend,
but if still like this and being under $ 40k this is really prone, yeah beware

tokeweed

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Life, Love and Laughter...

Be careful of the bounce cos it could just be a dead cat bounce. There are prolly more people who want to get out rn but they’re waiting for a better price to sell. I mean I’d like to see the market recover but I feel like it’s over guys. I should’ve listened to my gut and shorted the day when I started posting those inverted BTC charts. Lol.

Gozie51

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Quote from: UnDerDoG81 on May 25, 2021, 10:45:40 AM

2020 crash happened because of covid FUD. Nothing to do with bubble. Everything on the market crashed. And the rich accumulated insane ammounts of everything that crashed. And added trillions to their portfolio while the poor sold everything to them for cheap prices.

Was there a crash in 2020 ? No.

Was the crash because of covid-19? No.

Instead 2020 is the beginning of the bull for cryptocurrency because the investors and government were running out of contact and maintaining of social distance. And cryptocurrency became an investment opportunity.

Lucius

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Quote from: pooya87 on May 25, 2021, 09:19:16 AM

Now we're in yet another large FUD campaign and a moderately large reverse bubble with its bottom at $30k. How long is it going to take for this reverse bubble to reverse pop?

In my humble opinion, it all depends on how hard the patient is hit in the head - in this case, of course, recovery depends on how strong the FUD was and how long the media will emphasize this story about EM and China ban. As we approach the middle of the year, it somehow doesn’t seem realistic to me that recovery will be quick - summer in the Northern Hemisphere and easing measures following the pandemic will likely result in a very slow recovery - and so it could be until early Q4 when things usually become much more dynamic.

Of course, it is possible that I am wrong and that we will reach $60k again in a few weeks - although I think that this would be encouraged by some extremely positive news that is not on the horizon at the moment.

UnDerDoG81

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2020 crash happened because of covid FUD. Nothing to do with bubble. Everything on the market crashed. And the rich accumulated insane ammounts of everything that crashed. And added trillions to their portfolio while the poor sold everything to them for cheap prices.

Oshosondy

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This is more researches done on bitcoin price history, with everything I read, it is just exactly what happens to the price as a result of fomo an certain news. When there is bad news at times, the price will decrease in bubbles, but bitcoin price is just like 'when there is a storm, calm comes next', that is why the price will increase back. If someone is very patient, the time when the price of bitcoin decrease very significantly is the time to buy again because many people are waiting for such time for no two reasons than to buy, this makes the price to increase. But what is always happening after bitcoin price rise and fall is that the increase over long term will be higher than the fall, this will push bitcoin price later to another all-time-high.

pooya87

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Every now and then bitcoin price enters unrealistic levels which would make it unstable, eventually that bubble has to pop and price has to come back to normal for it to become stable and realistic again. It is defined by comparing the current price with intrinsic value.
* When price goes way above the intrinsic value -> it enters a bubble
* When price goes way below the intrinsic value -> it enters a reverse bubble

Reverse bubbles are more common than you'd think but since their burst is not as catastrophic as the bubble bursts they go unnoticed. For example in a bubble like what we had at the start of 2018 price dropped the bubble pop from the peak ($20k) down to more realistic level of about $8k in only 4 weeks, and that's a massive bubble that popped not a small one.

We've had many reverse bubbles too. The biggest one was at the end of 2018 that "reverse popped" after 5 months.
The most recent example is from early 2020 when out of nowhere with a large FUD campaign price went as low as $3850 and this reverse bubble took about 5 weeks to reverse pop.

Now we're in yet another large FUD campaign and a moderately large reverse bubble with its bottom at $30k. How long is it going to take for this reverse bubble to reverse pop?

A little comparison of the two recent reverse bubbles:

Topic: Reverse Bubble 2021 (Read 579 times)