The point is that the "best" strategy depends on what others are doing.
I am assuming that there are 2 groups of miners, to make it easier to analyze.
Group A always mine the longest chain,
Group B mine one of the top-2 blocks, and mine the longest if all fees equal
Both groups break ties based on the amount of fees paid.
So, someone mines a block with a large "pass-forward" fee on it.
Both groups mine that block, since it has the largest fee of the top 2. I assume it will pay 125 and the normal blocks will pay 25.
Eventually someone gets the next block, and now it is
Block-X (125) -> Block-Y(25)
The 2 mining groups mine different blocks now.
Group A mines Y since it is the longest chain.
Group B mines X since it has the highest fee of the top-2. They try to add Block-Y*(25.001).
If group A wins, then the chain becomes
Block-X (125) -> Block-Y(25) -> Block-Z(25)
All miners switch to Z, since the top-2 have the same fee, Group B might as well mine the longest.
Thus the miner who mined Block-Z wins 25, since all miners are now adding to his block.
So, if a Group A miner wins, he gets 25 coins with certainty.
If group B wins, it is different. They add Block-Y*
Block-X (125) -> Block-Y*(25.001)
So, it is back at the start. The only way to "lock-in" Block-Y* is for group A to win.
This means that Group B miners want a large fraction of the miners to be group A.
So, the group B miners win 125 coins, but their block might be replaced.
The probability of winning is equal to the fraction of group A miners.
So, if 99% of the miners are group A, then the payouts are
A: 25
B: 125 * 0.99 = 123.75
This means group B win more, so some A miners switch to group B
Lets say that drops it to 50% in each group, the payouts are
A: 25
B: 125 * 0.75 = 62.5
Group B is still doing better, so more switch
This eventually drops it to 20%, the payouts are
A: 25
B: 125 * 0.20 = 25
Thus both groups get the same, so nobody switches and things stay stable.
It also works from the other direction. If 1% of the miners are in group A, then the payouts are
A: 25
B: 125 * 0.01 = 1.25
Thus, group A pays better, so miners switch back to A.
The odds depend on the ratio of the high fee to the standard fee. The analysis could be expanded to cover strategy for setting the fee on each block.