Topic: Russia May Have Passed Peak Oil (Read 464 times)

If Russia is not open to renewable alternative energy. then one day Russia will be left behind from countries that have started to develop renewable energy. Fossil energy such as oil, gas, etc. is indeed a necessity. even all already dependent on it. but fossil energy will one day reach its limit. And that's where Russia should really think about developing and using renewable energy.
but data can sometimes be manipulated. For example, Russia in the data listed its oil income. but in fact sometimes exceeds what is recorded in the data. because of lowering the yield of natural gas mining. they think about getting more. and sell more. Even if it's behind the desk.

Russia has the power and that power is oil and that has made them so proud that they think others are not humans and kill them to please yourself
Since these countries are so rich and the people are contented - they keep on destroying one country and than the other

Russia has the power and that power is oil and that has made them so proud that they think others are not humans and kill them to please yourself
Since these countries are so rich and the people are contented - they keep on destroying one country and then the other

Indeed! We still need oil but we should make sure we don’t waste a lot, for example cruise ships use good oil while near land and on the ocean they use dirty oil to save money.
Things like that should be banned in my opinion.

Oil is going to go down, it's time for green energy niw

Are we seriously comparing Azerbaijan with Russian - Russia is 10 time bigger than Azerbaijan.
EU would definitely be needing the gas be it terrorist or peacemaker like USA or EU, Russia has done so many damage to Afghanistan and they were peace maker at that time because they were killing muslims. The definition of terrorist is very different - one country freedom fighter is other country terrorist - and that is the fact.

Do you really think that Azerbaijan can fully compensate Europe for Russian gas?
I heard from the news that Azerbaijani President Aliyev said in an interview with the Italian newspaper Il Sol 24H: “I would like to point out an important point that we did not aim before or now to compete with Russian gas on the European market, since we have our own position.”
Does not his words mean his fear of the possibility of another war between Russia and Azerbaijan?

Do you really think that Azerbaijan can fully compensate Europe for Russian gas?
I heard from the news that Azerbaijani President Aliyev said in an interview with the Italian newspaper Il Sol 24H: “I would like to point out an important point that we did not aim before or now to compete with Russian gas on the European market, since we have our own position.”
Does not his words mean his fear of the possibility of another war between Russia and Azerbaijan?

2. Azerbaijan will kick Russia out of the European gas market Azerbaijan plans to double its gas exports to Europe, bringing the capacity of the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) to 32 billion cubic meters.

Well, my friend, since you are from Russia, you must know more than me about the nature of the climate in Russia and the possibility of using clean energy. I only have general information about the nature of the climate in Russia, so I expected that the cold there prevails throughout the year and solar energy cannot be used.
It is good that solar energy can be used in the summer, but what about the winter there? Is it possible to benefit from solar energy or other clean energy?

I'm sorry, but you are mistaken!
Of the entire seemingly vast territory of Russia, approximately 30% are inhabited. And this is mostly "before the Urals", where the conditions are quite acceptable. Uncomfortable - this is forever frozen, the north-east of the country, etc. regions. I myself was born and lived in Novosibirsk. Yes, the winter is colder than, for example, in central Europe, but not "impossible for life." But in the summer it is quite good and people quietly grew vegetables in their gardens.
Well, and most importantly, the Russian government does not make plans to use these territories, except as a primitive extraction of resources. For example, Taiga was given to China for uncontrolled deforestation. out of 100 conventionally "civilized territories", most households are not supplied with gas, there is no normal sewage system and other solutions familiar to a normal person.

For Russia, the transition to clean energy is very difficult, the climate in Russia is very cold and the sun does not appear most of the year, so I do not see that there will be much benefit from solar energy, but instead of that, hydropower can be used because there are many sources of running water in Russia, however, I don't think the Russians are planning to switch to clean energy now as long as fossil fuels are available and cheaper.

It is obvious that Russia will be impacted from this but there is no guarantee on who will make the profit from this, China? India? Saudi Arabia? Like who would be the one that could provide something to the world when it needs it the most. Also we have to accept the fact that cars are just one part of the problem, yeah we use oil/petrol for our cars, you can name it anything you want but it is definitely tied to crypto in the long run.

On the other hand, we are talking about something that is a bit more careless with Russia who still attacks Ukraine in the face of all the upcoming problems, they are "not afraid" but they should be, it is going to hurt them big time.

There isn't a shortage of gas and oil yet. For Russia, they have vast land to drill for gas which it is all of us face the problem of where we buy without the burden of freight cost. EU for instance still hasn't found where to get gas this winter. Asia also has to buy from Russia also. Even if Russia have passed peak oil, do we have an alternative source? 

Saudi is also not willing to cooperate with Biden. Gas drilling countries including Russia are just not working with EU or US since they were trying to kill this industry thru that kid Great Thunberg.

China drilling the South China Sea for gas is about to happen, by the way, I recently read the news about it and they were to partner with a drilling company from the Philippines.

The embargo against Russian oil will kick in only by the end of this year. It will be interesting to see whether they will be able to maintain the budget surplus then. And there is some disturbing development from India. The Americans claim that the Indian government has given them assurances regarding the price cap on Russian crude. If they do that, then China will remain as the sole major importer of Russian crude. As of now, India imports around 1 million barrels of crude per month from Russia.

I don’t know where you get all this nonsense from, but just in case, I advise you not to miss the scheduled intake of haloperidol. The cost of a barrel of Ural oil is now $83. The dollar is in a very comfortable corridor for Russia and now costs 60 rubles. Russia's budget for 2022 is based on the assumption that oil costs $46.6 per barrel. According to the results of seven months, the budget surplus amounted to 482 billion rubles (revenues amounted to 15.777 trillion rubles, expenses were executed by 15.295 trillion rubles). Let me repeat, if you don't understand, in the first seven months of the year, Russia has a budget surplus of almost half a trillion rubles, against the backdrop of unprecedented economic sanctions and additional spending on a military special operation in Ukraine. These are facts, as opposed to your wet fantasies.

Russia lives within its means and earns more than it spends. And this is what the entire civilized world, mired in debt, should learn from her.

In addition to the fact that oil and gas production in Russia has ALREADY decreased, this is reflected even in official statistics, there is another side to this coin.
Even if the level of oil production is maintained, Russia still does not receive the profit it was counting on. Imagine - not everything is as joyful as propaganda is trying with all its might to drive into the heads of the inhabitants of Russia
Let me explain:
Ruble / dollar exchange rate. I’ve said it more than once, now I won’t say exactly to the penny, but the budget was drawn up on the assumption that oil costs (of course, the most poor quality is Urals), something like 62 dollars per barrel, and a dollar costs about 85 rubles. What do we have for today? A dollar costs about 60 rubles, a barrel of Urals costs about 80+ dollars per barrel. It seems like it's time to say - "hey dude, everything is so cool, why are you winding around here ?!", right? But as they say, the devil is in the details! The problem here is where it is the price "here and now". And contract deliveries come with significant discounts. It comes to the EU at a discount of up to about 25%, but the surplus of oil that Russia does not know where to put, China and India are buying up with a 40% discount! And it's still the EU has not imposed an embargo on Russian oil tankers! BUT, another trifle - tanker transportation for Russia has risen in price, due to problems with insurance of tanker transportation!
In total, in reality:
1. The volume of production has really decreased
2. The cost of oil, although higher than budgeted, but this high price is leveled by the artificially low dollar exchange rate in Russia
3. Russia sells most of its oil at a 25% discount
4. Russia is FORCED to sell a significant part of oil at a 40% discount
5. After the EU abandons Russian oil, the discount will become even higher, and budget revenues will naturally be significantly lower.

Now Russia produces more than 10 million barrels of oil per day, slightly ahead of Saudi Arabia in this indicator and second only to the United States. I don't understand what kind of decline in production you are talking about when the country is in the top 3 in the world ranking (in second place)?

Should peak production of oil have been reached. It could be defined as a deflationary commodity. Similar to bitcoin's reward halving. Every successive year would be defined by average decreases in production. Accompanied by rising scarcity of resources.

That is not a very viable option IMO. Oil storage is not very cheap. I am not sure, but from what I heard it costs $6 per barrel or above to store crude oil for one year. If the crude needs to be stored for 5 years, the storage alone will cost $30-$40 per barrel. So unless it is required for strategic purposes, crude oil storage can't be used to make profit. It can be very risky as well. For example, now crude is trading at $100 per barrel. What will happen in case the prices go down to $40 per barrel all of a sudden and stay there for 5-6 years? 

Russia mulls up to 30% oil discounts for some Asian buyers: Report
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/russia-mulls-up-to-30-oil-discounts-for-some-asian-buyers-report-122082401057_1.html

I did not know that there was a price point where it would be waste of money to get oil from the ground. From what I gather in this article that if the price is under X dollars, it would be useless to extract oil in some places, and as long as price does go back up, then it would be stopped and not really dealt with. But, isn't it smarter to just do it, store it, and do not sell it until price goes up and then only after the price goes up, you can sell?

This way you would have a ton of oil stored in barrels everywhere, and when the price goes up you could cash them and make a ton of money? Maybe I do not know how oil business works so that is why it sounds weird to me.

I was thinking about this a few weeks ago just after the war started and Europe face the oil and gas crisis I was thinking that if the European countries won't buy any oil and Russia is taking benefits from the producing oil and gas and this is definitely a big share of the Russian income then Russia will have problems too because they won't be able to sell these products freely like the old days and this will definitely damage their economy but in the other side of the story there are many other countries they will still buy gas from Russia and even some of them will do a proxy deal with Russia to help Russia deliver their product to other countries, that's how Russia can pass the problem with oil buy still passing this step won't be free for them.

1. Gas or oil that has been abandoned must be stored. Question - where and how, and how much? There are no huge storage facilities

This is not nonsense, it is a fact, no matter how idiotic it may sound, but Russia uses 75+% of imported technologies and equipment from developed countries in oil and gas production!

Russia’s oil production is unlikely to recover to pre-coronavirus levels, according to a government strategy document cited by Kommersant.

In a strategy document outlining prospects for Russia’s critical oil and gas industry, the government said its “base case” — or most likely — scenario, is that Russia’s oil production will never again hit the record levels recorded in 2019.

In the last full year before the pandemic, Russia produced 560 million tons of oil — equivalent to 11.3 million barrels a day. But output dropped for the first time in more than a decade in 2020 as Russia agreed significant production cuts with Saudi Arabia and other members of the OPEC cartel in a bid to support oil prices at the start of the pandemic — pushing production down 9% to 10.3 million barrels per day.

In the scenario labelled most probable, the Energy Ministry predicts Russia’s oil output will grow over the rest of the decade — but fail to hit the record output of 2019, with production hitting a post-coronavirus peak of 11.1 million barrels a day in 2029 before decreasing to to 9.4 million barrels a day by 2035.

Russia vies with Saudi Arabia to be the world’s second-largest oil producer, behind the world-leading U.S. The Russian economy remains heavily dependent on energy exports, with revenues in pre-pandemic years accounting for more than a third of the government’s total budget and all extractive industries — covering oil, gas and other commodities — accounting for almost 40% of Russian GDP, according to the country’s statistics agency Rosstat.

In its most optimistic scenario, the Energy Ministry expects production to pass pre-coronavirus levels, peaking in 2030 at 12.8 million barrels a day before starting to decline. In every scenario presented, the Energy Ministry said Russian oil production had either already peaked, or would hit its maximum level within the next decade, Kommersant reported.

Russia remains poorly positioned to take advantage of the global energy transition to cleaner and renewable sources of energy, experts say. While countries in Europe and the U.S. have put clean energy at the center of their post-coronavirus economic stimulus and investment packages, Russia is reportedly planning to cut state spending on green energy. Analysts estimate that if every project currently in development is completed in time, Russia’s electricity generation from renewable sources, excluding hydro power, will be just 1% by 2024.

“While international oil [majors] are falling over themselves in their business transformation potential to become ‘clean,’ Russians are unlikely to compete with them in this renewables drive,” VTB Capital’s deputy head of oil and gas research Dmitry Loukashov said in a research note last week.

He does believe, however, that the Russian oil and gas industry could capitalize on so-called transition fuels, like hydrogen or ammonia, as well as take a leading role in investment and research into carbon capture technology.

The Energy Ministry strategy outlines that government tax cuts to high-potential oil fields, such as those in the Arctic region, will be crucial in helping the country maximize the potential of the vast energy resources it still sits on.

If oil prices lag, it estimates that only a third of Russia’s proven reserves will be profitable to extract, while even in the most optimistic scenario, with higher global oil prices, only two-thirds of Russia’s recoverable reserves will be taken out of the ground.




https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/04/12/russia-may-have-passed-peak-oil-output-government-a73558