Russia suspends gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for failing to pay in rouble

DrBeer

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Quote from: darewaller on May 06, 2022, 05:42:35 PM

Quote from: DrBeer on May 04, 2022, 05:59:49 AM

Somehow the topic with Russian tantrums closes

In connection with the events in Ukraine, it accelerated the construction of a section of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline in Denmark, through which gas from Norway will be supplied to Poland.

Within a week of the invasion by Russian troops, the authorities issued the necessary environmental permits, which had previously been expected for many months. It is planned that the gas pipeline will be put into commercial operation in January next year.

The annual gas transmission capacity of the project is 10 billion cubic meters. One of the main consumers of this gas is Poland, which does not intend to renew the long-term contract with Gazprom that expires this year.

"We are developing very good cooperation with all the contractors to speed up the process and do everything possible to meet the work schedule. Of course, this is done so that the gas is in the Danish system, but mainly to help our good neighbors and our friends in Poland" , says Danish project manager Søren Jude Larsen.

This is what the war with Russia did, it allowed people to fasten the energy sector a lot. I mean the renewable energy in many nations as well and it did happen. Scientists have been talking about renewable energy being our existential savior for over a decade now, I remember Al Gore talking about it in 2004, think about how further that is. Nothing changed, nobody did anything about it and finally the Russian war made it happen, people got scared so much that even regular people are putting solar panels on their roofs more than ever now. This is why Poland let the Norway pipeline to happen right away as soon as Russian one was cut as well.

The problem the EU is facing is the problem that comes with trying to "put all your eggs in one basket" and flirting/dealing with kleptocrats and criminals. As a result, the EU, instead of diversifying the energy market, through the influence, primarily of Germany, almost monopolized the gas and oil market by Russian suppliers. Germany still has many amazing discoveries to make, following a substantive investigation into the work of Schroeder and Frau Merkel, in favor of Russia, in the European energy market. But now the EU has finally realized that continuing this game is suicidal, and in general, doing business with terrorists and murderers is not the best option. Well, since they missed some time, now Europe will have to clear their wallets and pay for their stupidity earlier.

bustabitsboy

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Quote from: macson on May 08, 2022, 03:40:32 PM

Quote from: KennyR on April 28, 2022, 07:40:50 PM

Quote from: Yogee on April 28, 2022, 06:45:51 PM

Quote from: macson on April 28, 2022, 05:50:56 PM

.....
Russia has violated the treaty ^{(the oil trade agreement was written before the Ukraine-Russia war)}, but what i see now is that Russia doesn't care about that anymore, when European countries impose economic sanctions on their country, Russia immediately considers the written agreement to be automatically void. i know it's really tough for bulgaria and poland but if they are wise, they will surely accept the conditions from russia to save gas and oil supply in their country

Russia have been asking for other countries to honor some treaties before this conflict started from what I've read. Many of those requests were also ignored so it's not surprising they do the same.

Something has to be mutually addressed to end the war. If this keeps going on, both the country people gets affected alot. Already two months past and the war still continues. At some point it looks like European Union is playing an one sided role.

agree, they only give one-sided rules... don't know what's in the heads of the European Union leaders, they don't seem to think about the next strategy when the tough decisions they make are passed down. if they really want to impose sanctions on Russia then they should have a plan and read the situation, what next they should do when Russia stops distributing the oil and gas they produce.

The countries of the European Union are a puppet of the United States, which hooked them on a money needle. The leaders of these countries do not have their own opinion and accept everything that they are advised without thinking about their citizens. If the leaders of these countries thought about their citizens and could speak openly about the problems of people, today it would be much easier for all of us to live.

DrBeer

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Quote from: Sithara007 on May 09, 2022, 05:28:52 AM

Quote from: Ultegra134 on May 08, 2022, 02:48:35 PM

It would be extremely naive to believe that Putin didn't expect Europe's stand against him, he was prepared for the sanctions, which are definitely hurting him, at least not as much as Europe anticipated. So far, I believe that he's doing more harm in West's economy than his own, since the Russian Rumble skyrocketed after receiving it for gas and oil transactions. On the other hand, I don't see this war coming to an end anytime soon.

Right now Putin is earning more from his gas and oil sales compared to what he was earning before the war. And once EU implements their stupid move to completely ban oil/gas from Russia, the oil prices are going to the stratosphere and in the end Putin will earn even more from his exports. At this point, the gas prices at European hubs are >$1,000 per thousand cubic meter. Last year, at this point the prices were around $150 per thousand cu.m. You can check the prices of Russian natural gas here:

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=russian-natural-gas

Yes, no one denies that for some period of time, when a cancerous tumor called the "Russian world" is removed from the world community, one will have to endure, pay more, and even possibly incur losses. Now, and for some time to come, Russia can really get more profit from the sale. But you forgot - further MORATORIUM. And this means that gas and oil will either have to be burned or drilling rigs closed....Or..Sold to China or India at the price they name. And I am absolutely sure that in such a situation, neither China nor India will buy this resource at a market price. And it will be that way for decades. It is hard to imagine how Russia will survive with the dumping of energy prices ... And the EU, the EU will rebuild its oil / gas transportation systems, optimize the production and consumption of these resources, switch to more environmentally friendly fuels, and move away from any dependence on Russia and its resources .

Ozero

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Quote from: Zilon on May 05, 2022, 05:56:11 AM

A nice map well plotted to strengthen the falling Ruble. But imposing preferred payment option might initiate the idea of sourcing for other means of supply by both countries and probably the US might be the next alternative which means strengthening the US dollar even more. Russians can as well suggest payment in crypto if the fear international markets might freeze their accounts. crypto should rather be the preferred alternative mode of payment

The Central Bank of Russia has already issued a statement that they will not use cryptocurrency in order to avoid international sanctions because the international community is taking appropriate measures to regulate cryptocurrency and cryptocurrency exchanges. In other words, it simply won't work in Russia.

As for gas and oil from Russia, the countries of Europe have already made it clear that they have set a course for a complete rejection of Russian oil and gas. Now traditional supply routes are being disrupted, so the price for them is rising. But after a while everything will be back to normal. And in Russia there will no longer be this large European market. And, apparently, forever, since European countries planned to gradually get rid of coal, oil and gas as part of the fight against the causes of global climate change. For Russia, this will have catastrophic consequences.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on May 08, 2022, 02:48:35 PM

It would be extremely naive to believe that Putin didn't expect Europe's stand against him, he was prepared for the sanctions, which are definitely hurting him, at least not as much as Europe anticipated. So far, I believe that he's doing more harm in West's economy than his own, since the Russian Rumble skyrocketed after receiving it for gas and oil transactions. On the other hand, I don't see this war coming to an end anytime soon.

Right now Putin is earning more from his gas and oil sales compared to what he was earning before the war. And once EU implements their stupid move to completely ban oil/gas from Russia, the oil prices are going to the stratosphere and in the end Putin will earn even more from his exports. At this point, the gas prices at European hubs are >$1,000 per thousand cubic meter. Last year, at this point the prices were around $150 per thousand cu.m. You can check the prices of Russian natural gas here:

https://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=russian-natural-gas

macson

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Quote from: KennyR on April 28, 2022, 07:40:50 PM

Quote from: Yogee on April 28, 2022, 06:45:51 PM

Quote from: macson on April 28, 2022, 05:50:56 PM

.....
Russia has violated the treaty ^{(the oil trade agreement was written before the Ukraine-Russia war)}, but what i see now is that Russia doesn't care about that anymore, when European countries impose economic sanctions on their country, Russia immediately considers the written agreement to be automatically void. i know it's really tough for bulgaria and poland but if they are wise, they will surely accept the conditions from russia to save gas and oil supply in their country

Russia have been asking for other countries to honor some treaties before this conflict started from what I've read. Many of those requests were also ignored so it's not surprising they do the same.

Something has to be mutually addressed to end the war. If this keeps going on, both the country people gets affected alot. Already two months past and the war still continues. At some point it looks like European Union is playing an one sided role.

agree, they only give one-sided rules... don't know what's in the heads of the European Union leaders, they don't seem to think about the next strategy when the tough decisions they make are passed down. if they really want to impose sanctions on Russia then they should have a plan and read the situation, what next they should do when Russia stops distributing the oil and gas they produce.

Ultegra134

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Quote from: monineklutak on May 05, 2022, 06:17:39 AM

Quote from: 19Nov16 on May 05, 2022, 03:33:00 AM

A month ago Russia had announced that it only received rubles for gas transactions, unfortunately some countries did not care too much so that gas supply was suspended, this was Russia's intelligent step to avoid sanctions and certainly made Europe more dependent on the system made by Russia.

I think the Russians had this all planned so that when there are sanctions they are not too worried,
I agree with you that it turns Europe back on what Russia does,
after all Europe still depends or needs gas from Russia and let's see what steps both sides will take in this regard

It would be extremely naive to believe that Putin didn't expect Europe's stand against him, he was prepared for the sanctions, which are definitely hurting him, at least not as much as Europe anticipated. So far, I believe that he's doing more harm in West's economy than his own, since the Russian Rumble skyrocketed after receiving it for gas and oil transactions. On the other hand, I don't see this war coming to an end anytime soon.

jostorres

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Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles. It has cut off gas supply delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. I had earlier mentioned that Russia had threatened to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles and now, it has made good its threat by shutting off gas delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail while gas prices has increased by 20%. Russia says the move is in response to both countries refusing to pay in roubles while the roubles gains about a percent to the dollar.

I still find it funny that Russia "attacked" this way to show of force by doing it to Poland and Bulgaria, two very weak nations in European soil. Let us wait and see if they could even try to do something like this to any of the major nations, their whole money making machine would be cut off. They should pray that they wouldn't end up with all those big nations stop getting gas from them, if they do then Russia wouldn't be able to make the type of money they are making today and that would be a terrible financial fall for them. They need that money and they will do anything in their power to keep selling gas to anyone who buys it, just to keep the finances going.

darewaller

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Quote from: DrBeer on May 04, 2022, 05:59:49 AM

Somehow the topic with Russian tantrums closes

In connection with the events in Ukraine, it accelerated the construction of a section of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline in Denmark, through which gas from Norway will be supplied to Poland.

Within a week of the invasion by Russian troops, the authorities issued the necessary environmental permits, which had previously been expected for many months. It is planned that the gas pipeline will be put into commercial operation in January next year.

The annual gas transmission capacity of the project is 10 billion cubic meters. One of the main consumers of this gas is Poland, which does not intend to renew the long-term contract with Gazprom that expires this year.

"We are developing very good cooperation with all the contractors to speed up the process and do everything possible to meet the work schedule. Of course, this is done so that the gas is in the Danish system, but mainly to help our good neighbors and our friends in Poland" , says Danish project manager Søren Jude Larsen.

This is what the war with Russia did, it allowed people to fasten the energy sector a lot. I mean the renewable energy in many nations as well and it did happen. Scientists have been talking about renewable energy being our existential savior for over a decade now, I remember Al Gore talking about it in 2004, think about how further that is. Nothing changed, nobody did anything about it and finally the Russian war made it happen, people got scared so much that even regular people are putting solar panels on their roofs more than ever now. This is why Poland let the Norway pipeline to happen right away as soon as Russian one was cut as well.

monineklutak

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Quote from: 19Nov16 on May 05, 2022, 03:33:00 AM

A month ago Russia had announced that it only received rubles for gas transactions, unfortunately some countries did not care too much so that gas supply was suspended, this was Russia's intelligent step to avoid sanctions and certainly made Europe more dependent on the system made by Russia.

I think the Russians had this all planned so that when there are sanctions they are not too worried,
I agree with you that it turns Europe back on what Russia does,
after all Europe still depends or needs gas from Russia and let's see what steps both sides will take in this regard

Zilon

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Bitcoindata.science

A nice map well plotted to strengthen the falling Ruble. But imposing preferred payment option might initiate the idea of sourcing for other means of supply by both countries and probably the US might be the next alternative which means strengthening the US dollar even more. Russians can as well suggest payment in crypto if the fear international markets might freeze their accounts. crypto should rather be the preferred alternative mode of payment

19Nov16

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A month ago Russia had announced that it only received rubles for gas transactions, unfortunately some countries did not care too much so that gas supply was suspended, this was Russia's intelligent step to avoid sanctions and certainly made Europe more dependent on the system made by Russia.

DrBeer

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Somehow the topic with Russian tantrums closes

In connection with the events in Ukraine, it accelerated the construction of a section of the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline in Denmark, through which gas from Norway will be supplied to Poland.

Within a week of the invasion by Russian troops, the authorities issued the necessary environmental permits, which had previously been expected for many months. It is planned that the gas pipeline will be put into commercial operation in January next year.

The annual gas transmission capacity of the project is 10 billion cubic meters. One of the main consumers of this gas is Poland, which does not intend to renew the long-term contract with Gazprom that expires this year.

"We are developing very good cooperation with all the contractors to speed up the process and do everything possible to meet the work schedule. Of course, this is done so that the gas is in the Danish system, but mainly to help our good neighbors and our friends in Poland" , says Danish project manager Søren Jude Larsen.

Calex12

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This is a very long process, the supply of gas with Russia has been established for a long time, no one thought to assume that the world order would change. Some countries have indeed begun to buy gas from other sources and countries, but it takes more than one year for the whole world to refuse.

Zlantann

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Gas is an essential commodity. European nations that rely on Russian gas would not survive without it. Some European countries have announced that they are going to start using their reserves, but how long would that last. We know there was a contractual agreement on how payments would be made but people's lives are at stack. European countries should pay in Rubles and start searching for alternatives to Russian gas. This would take sometime and might be more expensive but Russian indispensability must be curtailed for peace to return in not only Europe but the world entirely.

DrBeer

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Quote from: Pomogator on May 01, 2022, 09:35:56 PM

Quote from: Leviathan.007 on May 01, 2022, 06:25:31 AM

Most countries have not paid in pieces of paper with the name "ruble", and will not pay. In addition to the Kremlin "litters" such as Hungary, not a single normal consumer paid attention to the tantrums of the Kremlin Fuhrer, and they continue to pay according to the terms of the contract. Let's create a list of countries here who pays in EURO and who pays in Rubles? And compare the balance? Don't you want?

After the news about the cessation of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, news began to arrive about the creation of ruble accounts from many European countries. I do not want to say that by doing so they support the Russian regime and the rest, but they should do this in order to calmly spend several winters and create a platform for escaping Russian gas, you should not be so radical about everything.

You once again voice how the market works now and WILL work?

Do not read propaganda, it only numbs and moves away from the world of reality!
No one will pay in cowries, beads, rubles, mugs! There is a contract, there are clearly ascribed conditions, there are no new applications signed by all parties that change the terms of payment. There are only tantrums and delirium of the Russian Fuhrer, but all his "erotic fantasies" will remain as such. No one else will fall for the pressure of the Kremlin terrorists, the situation has changed irreversibly....

Pomogator

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Quote from: Leviathan.007 on May 01, 2022, 06:25:31 AM

Most countries have not paid in pieces of paper with the name "ruble", and will not pay. In addition to the Kremlin "litters" such as Hungary, not a single normal consumer paid attention to the tantrums of the Kremlin Fuhrer, and they continue to pay according to the terms of the contract. Let's create a list of countries here who pays in EURO and who pays in Rubles? And compare the balance? Don't you want?

After the news about the cessation of gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, news began to arrive about the creation of ruble accounts from many European countries. I do not want to say that by doing so they support the Russian regime and the rest, but they should do this in order to calmly spend several winters and create a platform for escaping Russian gas, you should not be so radical about everything.

TimeTeller

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Quote from: Scripture on May 01, 2022, 07:03:46 PM

Quote from: crzy on May 01, 2022, 04:54:18 PM

Quote from: DrBeer on May 01, 2022, 03:57:52 PM

Quote from: Leviathan.007 on May 01, 2022, 06:25:31 AM

I was expecting to see some European countries do not accept paying the gas price in the rouble to Russia, however doing this will bring many problems for them and they will have issues with supplying gas for their people, by doing so the gas price in Poland Bulgaria and raise and this will make people unhappy also their government should start seeking for a new gas supplier to replace Russia and this will be a pain because finding another gas supplier can a problem but if you are forced for it this will be even harder, but still doing this can be a great a step forward for the rest of European countries.

Most countries have not paid in pieces of paper with the name "ruble", and will not pay. In addition to the Kremlin "litters" such as Hungary, not a single normal consumer paid attention to the tantrums of the Kremlin Fuhrer, and they continue to pay according to the terms of the contract. Let's create a list of countries here who pays in EURO and who pays in Rubles? And compare the balance? Don't you want?

Russia stands to his threat and starts not to supply the gas for not paying in Ruble, those countries took the risk as well and now facing the problem same thing with Russia. If you have the gas supply, you can really hold it especially if they didn’t meet your terms. I don’t know how long Russia can handle this but EU countries are also suffering because of this, this is a domino effect.

They can't totally do this because some of their allies will be affected as well and as you can see, Russia still want to supply gas but it will be based on their own terms which EU totally disagree. The loser here will be Russia most probably since they are not the only supplier and I'm sure EU have their back up plans with regards to this one. They can't escaped many sanctions, soon they will experience the big effect of these sanctions, I just hope they didn't commit any war crime against the world.

And if they will, I don't think they can sustain waging war against the world.
This early, they are already showing the weakening of their military capabilities.
It seems that this war will be over maybe in the next couple of months.
Other parts of the world are still supporting Ukraine, hence, they are not surrendering yet to Russia.
But Russia is slowly losing their top rank military officials and so their weaponry.

Scripture

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Quote from: crzy on May 01, 2022, 04:54:18 PM

Quote from: DrBeer on May 01, 2022, 03:57:52 PM

Quote from: Leviathan.007 on May 01, 2022, 06:25:31 AM

I was expecting to see some European countries do not accept paying the gas price in the rouble to Russia, however doing this will bring many problems for them and they will have issues with supplying gas for their people, by doing so the gas price in Poland Bulgaria and raise and this will make people unhappy also their government should start seeking for a new gas supplier to replace Russia and this will be a pain because finding another gas supplier can a problem but if you are forced for it this will be even harder, but still doing this can be a great a step forward for the rest of European countries.

Most countries have not paid in pieces of paper with the name "ruble", and will not pay. In addition to the Kremlin "litters" such as Hungary, not a single normal consumer paid attention to the tantrums of the Kremlin Fuhrer, and they continue to pay according to the terms of the contract. Let's create a list of countries here who pays in EURO and who pays in Rubles? And compare the balance? Don't you want?

Russia stands to his threat and starts not to supply the gas for not paying in Ruble, those countries took the risk as well and now facing the problem same thing with Russia. If you have the gas supply, you can really hold it especially if they didn’t meet your terms. I don’t know how long Russia can handle this but EU countries are also suffering because of this, this is a domino effect.

They can't totally do this because some of their allies will be affected as well and as you can see, Russia still want to supply gas but it will be based on their own terms which EU totally disagree. The loser here will be Russia most probably since they are not the only supplier and I'm sure EU have their back up plans with regards to this one. They can't escaped many sanctions, soon they will experience the big effect of these sanctions, I just hope they didn't commit any war crime against the world.

Synchronice

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I want to quote myself here:

Quote from: Synchronice on April 23, 2022, 11:18:50 AM

1. 45% of Russia's federal budget in 2021 came from oil and natural gas revenues
2. 49% of Russia's crude oil and condensate exports went to European OECD nations.
3. Supplies from Russia account for about 40% of the EU's natural gas imports
4. just under three-quarters of all Russian natural gas exports went to European countries in 2021

Read these statistics carefully, it's not taken out of thin air, these are official statistics.

Then, keep in mind that Russia won't be able to sell a lot of gas in China because of technical reasons, pipelines, infrastructure, etc will take some years to develop. Then, keep in mind that Russia sells only 2% of oil in India. Keep in mind again that China and India will never pay high amount of money in natural resources to Russia, they won't throw away as high bets as Europe throws!

The main alternatives to oil and gas energy include nuclear power, solar power, ethanol, and wind power. Europe may rethink to return to Nuclear Power energy. It was very wrong for Germany to make itself and the whole Europe dependent on Russian gas and oil, the sad fact is that Fukushima nuclear disaster even strengthened this decision.

But my main question and answer on this task is: Where the fuck is Russia going to sell its gas and oil? How is it going to bring back the half of the income if they don't sell gas and oil to Europe? How are they gonna feed themselves? I guess Putin plans to put it in the ass and open the pipelines with maximum allowable operating pressure.

crzy

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Quote from: DrBeer on May 01, 2022, 03:57:52 PM

Quote from: Leviathan.007 on May 01, 2022, 06:25:31 AM

I was expecting to see some European countries do not accept paying the gas price in the rouble to Russia, however doing this will bring many problems for them and they will have issues with supplying gas for their people, by doing so the gas price in Poland Bulgaria and raise and this will make people unhappy also their government should start seeking for a new gas supplier to replace Russia and this will be a pain because finding another gas supplier can a problem but if you are forced for it this will be even harder, but still doing this can be a great a step forward for the rest of European countries.

Most countries have not paid in pieces of paper with the name "ruble", and will not pay. In addition to the Kremlin "litters" such as Hungary, not a single normal consumer paid attention to the tantrums of the Kremlin Fuhrer, and they continue to pay according to the terms of the contract. Let's create a list of countries here who pays in EURO and who pays in Rubles? And compare the balance? Don't you want?

Russia stands to his threat and starts not to supply the gas for not paying in Ruble, those countries took the risk as well and now facing the problem same thing with Russia. If you have the gas supply, you can really hold it especially if they didn’t meet your terms. I don’t know how long Russia can handle this but EU countries are also suffering because of this, this is a domino effect.

DrBeer

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Quote from: Leviathan.007 on May 01, 2022, 06:25:31 AM

I was expecting to see some European countries do not accept paying the gas price in the rouble to Russia, however doing this will bring many problems for them and they will have issues with supplying gas for their people, by doing so the gas price in Poland Bulgaria and raise and this will make people unhappy also their government should start seeking for a new gas supplier to replace Russia and this will be a pain because finding another gas supplier can a problem but if you are forced for it this will be even harder, but still doing this can be a great a step forward for the rest of European countries.

Most countries have not paid in pieces of paper with the name "ruble", and will not pay. In addition to the Kremlin "litters" such as Hungary, not a single normal consumer paid attention to the tantrums of the Kremlin Fuhrer, and they continue to pay according to the terms of the contract. Let's create a list of countries here who pays in EURO and who pays in Rubles? And compare the balance? Don't you want?

romero121

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on May 01, 2022, 07:06:42 AM

Quote from: Sithara007 on April 30, 2022, 10:38:34 PM

Quote from: Ultegra134 on April 30, 2022, 04:47:09 PM

It's an undoubtable fact that Russia has disrupted the oil and gas market. Before you get started, I know, gas prices were already high enough before the Russian invasion, however, now they've skyrocketed, not to mention that due to the war, Crude oil surpassed all-time high records of many years, within a matter of time.

As a result, due to embargoes and the whole situation, Russia is selling discounted oil to Asian countries (thus, they're not that much affected by the sanctions), while Europe has to pay extravagant prices, without having a feasible solution planned.

The Europeans are shooting themselves on foot. Russians are also losing out, as they are being forced to sell oil and gas at discounted rates. On the other hand, the OPEC bloc as well as the Americans are gaining, as they are able to make good profits out of this situation. Crude oil prices have gone up by almost 200%, while the natural gas prices have gone up by 6-7x. Russia may ship more oil to countries such as India and Indonesia, but there is a lack of availability of large tankers to carry this oil.

Certainly, this is an adverse situation for both sides, however, as you've also mentioned yourself, Europe (mostly its citizens) is suffering the sanction's repercussions a lot worse than Russia, in terms of Crude oil prices at least. To be honest, I don't remember having such excessive gas prices here, for the past 10 years, taxes play a huge role in our case, but barrel prices have skyrocketed, achieving a new all-time high.

The fuel price around the globe have increased a lot due to the supply shortage. When this is the scenario in most of the European countries, why is the fuel price is found at the peak in Russia's friendly countries like India. It looks like the government is running with the revenue from fuel. For that reason unlike the barrel price, the taxation is done to keep the price on the top.

Ultegra134

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Quote from: Sithara007 on April 30, 2022, 10:38:34 PM

Quote from: Ultegra134 on April 30, 2022, 04:47:09 PM

It's an undoubtable fact that Russia has disrupted the oil and gas market. Before you get started, I know, gas prices were already high enough before the Russian invasion, however, now they've skyrocketed, not to mention that due to the war, Crude oil surpassed all-time high records of many years, within a matter of time.

As a result, due to embargoes and the whole situation, Russia is selling discounted oil to Asian countries (thus, they're not that much affected by the sanctions), while Europe has to pay extravagant prices, without having a feasible solution planned.

The Europeans are shooting themselves on foot. Russians are also losing out, as they are being forced to sell oil and gas at discounted rates. On the other hand, the OPEC bloc as well as the Americans are gaining, as they are able to make good profits out of this situation. Crude oil prices have gone up by almost 200%, while the natural gas prices have gone up by 6-7x. Russia may ship more oil to countries such as India and Indonesia, but there is a lack of availability of large tankers to carry this oil.

Certainly, this is an adverse situation for both sides, however, as you've also mentioned yourself, Europe (mostly its citizens) is suffering the sanction's repercussions a lot worse than Russia, in terms of Crude oil prices at least. To be honest, I don't remember having such excessive gas prices here, for the past 10 years, taxes play a huge role in our case, but barrel prices have skyrocketed, achieving a new all-time high.

DrBeer

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Some cool news - Bulgaria, in response to the violation of contractual terms by Russia and the termination of gas supplies under the contract, is considering the option of suspending the pumping of gas through its territory, for Hungary and Serbia, enough pro-Kremlin "dogs"

the great leader of Russia" is developing an insidious plan for revenge on Poland and at the same time Bulgaria. Blocks their supply. Eventually:
1. Lose profit
2. Other EU countries will help Poland and Bulgaria and these countries will be able to avoid problems. And from the end of the year they will FOREVER leave the purchase of Russian gas
3. With a high probability - Hungary and Serbia will end up without gas, which dutifully follow all the orders of a madman

Bravo!!!

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I was expecting to see some European countries do not accept paying the gas price in the rouble to Russia, however doing this will bring many problems for them and they will have issues with supplying gas for their people, by doing so the gas price in Poland Bulgaria and raise and this will make people unhappy also their government should start seeking for a new gas supplier to replace Russia and this will be a pain because finding another gas supplier can a problem but if you are forced for it this will be even harder, but still doing this can be a great a step forward for the rest of European countries.

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Quote from: Ultegra134 on April 30, 2022, 04:47:09 PM

It's an undoubtable fact that Russia has disrupted the oil and gas market. Before you get started, I know, gas prices were already high enough before the Russian invasion, however, now they've skyrocketed, not to mention that due to the war, Crude oil surpassed all-time high records of many years, within a matter of time.

As a result, due to embargoes and the whole situation, Russia is selling discounted oil to Asian countries (thus, they're not that much affected by the sanctions), while Europe has to pay extravagant prices, without having a feasible solution planned.

The Europeans are shooting themselves on foot. Russians are also losing out, as they are being forced to sell oil and gas at discounted rates. On the other hand, the OPEC bloc as well as the Americans are gaining, as they are able to make good profits out of this situation. Crude oil prices have gone up by almost 200%, while the natural gas prices have gone up by 6-7x. Russia may ship more oil to countries such as India and Indonesia, but there is a lack of availability of large tankers to carry this oil.

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Quote from: DrBeer on April 30, 2022, 03:59:54 PM

All the boys, let's go. Another "victory" for Russia, with another shot in the foot

1. 2 countries from now on stop buying (receiving) gas from Russia and paying them accordingly. Minus in the budget of Russia.
2. Until the launch of the new pipeline at the end of the year, Germany and Greece will help Poland and Bulgaria with gas.
3. Russia always loses another very loyal country - Bulgaria

That's really "achieved the desired effect" with such an outburst, right!?

It will just be necessary to write down all the "moves" of Russia, and release a 100-volume book called "How not to do business so as not to look like a complete idiot. Proven by Russia." I think it will be a bestseller!

It's an undoubtable fact that Russia has disrupted the oil and gas market. Before you get started, I know, gas prices were already high enough before the Russian invasion, however, now they've skyrocketed, not to mention that due to the war, Crude oil surpassed all-time high records of many years, within a matter of time.

As a result, due to embargoes and the whole situation, Russia is selling discounted oil to Asian countries (thus, they're not that much affected by the sanctions), while Europe has to pay extravagant prices, without having a feasible solution planned.

DrBeer

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All the boys, let's go. Another "victory" for Russia, with another shot in the foot

1. 2 countries from now on stop buying (receiving) gas from Russia and paying them accordingly. Minus in the budget of Russia.
2. Until the launch of the new pipeline at the end of the year, Germany and Greece will help Poland and Bulgaria with gas.
3. Russia always loses another very loyal country - Bulgaria

That's really "achieved the desired effect" with such an outburst, right!?

It will just be necessary to write down all the "moves" of Russia, and release a 100-volume book called "How not to do business so as not to look like a complete idiot. Proven by Russia." I think it will be a bestseller!

ven7net

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Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles. It has cut off gas supply delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. I had earlier mentioned that Russia had threatened to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles and now, it has made good its threat by shutting off gas delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail while gas prices has increased by 20%. Russia says the move is in response to both countries refusing to pay in roubles while the roubles gains about a percent to the dollar.

Yes, I also saw this news, but I don’t see anything special in it, since there was news that Poland continued to receive the same Russian gas, but only from Germany. If this news is true, then both news don't really mean anything, because, as a result, Russian gas continues to be bought but for rubles. Is this good or bad? Well, if we proceed from the fact that Russian gas, then it has the right to sell it for the currency that it considers necessary for itself. As for those countries that need Russian gas, what difference does it make for what currency to buy it, because in any case you will buy goods that are vital for you and the currency in this case does not play a role. As for the refusal to buy Russian gas or other energy sources, here each country has the right to decide for itself what to do, primarily from the point of view of its own needs. If you don't need gas, well, don't buy it; if you need it, then buy it, what's the actual problem?

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Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles.

Poland and bulgaria can actually make gas payments with bitcoin, if they want, there is a policy from russia in that, like china and turkey.

Russia may accept Bitcoin as oil and gas export payments from friendly countries.

Quote

Faced with sanctions from the West for the invasion of Ukraine, Russia is considering allowing “friendly” countries such as China and Turkey to make payment for its oil and gas exports in Bitcoin.

We know the ruble is currently experiencing serious problems due to the West Sanctions that have not ceased to impose sanctions on Russia, since the invasion occurred between Russia vs. Ukraine, especially gas and the ruble suffered many losses because the ruble continued to hit.

I don't think Russia should make threats against Poland and Bulgaria, because Russia has taken Bitcoin as an alternative to gas payments, instead of rubles.

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Quote from: TheBeardedBaby on April 27, 2022, 12:58:21 PM

Quote from: TheCoinGrabber on April 27, 2022, 11:59:11 AM

Summer can't come soon enough don't it?

According to the government information, we have reserves for 90 days (based on the winte rconsumption rates) so this scenario was expected after the expulsion of a dozen of Russian citizens conspiring against our country and spying for Russia.We were one of the first countries to colse our airspace for Russian airplanes so we were havely criticised for those actions and there were many threads from the Russian side. It was just a matter of time that to happen.

Which of those 2 countries are you from? And does the government already have plans where it'll source its gas for next winter? I suppose if there's no preexisting pipeline to an alternative source it'll be very expensive to build one and might not be operational within a year.

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Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles. It has cut off gas supply delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. I had earlier mentioned that Russia had threatened to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles and now, it has made good its threat by shutting off gas delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail while gas prices has increased by 20%. Russia says the move is in response to both countries refusing to pay in roubles while the roubles gains about a percent to the dollar.

Why not? Russia has the right to do so. If it cannot use foreign exchange reserves now, then what is the point of selling something for foreign currency now. Before the imposition of sanctions against Russia, there was no talk of paying for gas in the national currency. Everything is correct. Russia must take care of its people and this is happening now. If you don't want to pay in rubles = don't pay.

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on April 29, 2022, 02:51:10 AM

Quote from: Haunebu on April 29, 2022, 12:13:36 AM

Quote from: mindrust on April 28, 2022, 11:19:49 PM

Russia showed they are serious about this. Either the European countries or Russia will have to step back imo but right now none of the parties look like they are going to. Poland and Bulgaria will have to make a choice now. 1- Go along with Russia and not freeze. 2- Find an alternative supplier.

Agreed. Russia continue to screw their reputation by acting like gangsters in this manner which won't do them any good in the long-term as more and more countries continue forming negative opinions about them for various reasons.

Objectively speaking, I'm not defending Russia.

From Russia's own viewpoint, they are required to demand it because they need to have a market to maintain the value of the Ruble, or their own citizens will suffer. Russia has something European countries need, and they simply ask to be paid in the Ruble. It's a business proposition.

I believe some European countries are starting to agree, or it's their citizens who will suffer.

What Russia is doing is called economic/gas blackmail and terrorism. They stopped gas supplies more than once, and even before the imposition of sanctions. They stopped simply to force some countries to fulfill their "fantasies". But now their blackmail has ceased to be conducted. Some lured rulers, of course, continue to play along with the Kremlin, but these are units that do not affect anything.
Understand - Russia's blackmail is like gangrene or cancer that eats a living organism a little bit at a time. Sometimes it is necessary, in order to SAVE the whole organism, to sacrifice something, and even remove entire organs, or amputate parts of limbs. But this is the only way to stop the disease. So it is with blackmail - they stopped fulfilling Russian illegal requirements, they "tighten their belts" with gas a little, they start deliveries along new routes, and they will forever forget about the nightmare of relations with Russia! The question is what will Russia then do with oil and gas that no one buys?

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Quote from: DrBeer on April 29, 2022, 08:11:38 AM

Quote from: mindrust on April 28, 2022, 11:19:49 PM

Russia showed they are serious about this. Either the European countries or Russia will have to step back imo but right now none of the parties look like they are going to. Poland and Bulgaria will have to make a choice now. 1- Go along with Russia and not freeze. 2- Find an alternative supplier.

The second option is the favorable one but it is also the hardest choice because there isn't a country which can replace Russia.

Why are you talking such nonsense?

Read carefully how Poland will replace Russian gas supplies from a nutty supplier? In the 4th quarter, a new gas line will be launched, which will more than compensate for gas supplies disrupted by the Russian side. But after that, Poland and Bulgaria will NEVER buy gas from inadequate Russia! And Russia will have to put it somewhere. And if you didn't know - I'll tell you a secret - Russia has almost no global gas storage facilities. And the extracted gas will have to be ... just burned. Billions of dollars down the drain! This is the reality....

If this is true, then I need to say it's bad news for Poland and Bulgaria. We have seen how desperate Russia is about its fuel business in Europe. They even invade a country because of this. If Russia thinks Poland and Bulgaria are threatening their fuel business, then they could attack them too. The only safe solution for a European country in my opinion is to keep peace with Russia as long as possible and build military strength as soon as possible. It is not wise to risk your country against a superior enemy.

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it is indeed russia's right to close the export of gas end oil to european countries ... but what matters is how russia violates the contracts they have signed with european countries in gas and oil trade .. but even so i support the policy this russia

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Quote from: Yogee on April 28, 2022, 06:45:51 PM

Do you have a complete map of the gas pipelines from Russia to the rest of European countries? I'm also curious about the potential impact of this to the political landscape in the region.

Here you go since nobody posted one:

Simply put all gas pipelines go through these countries Poland Ukraine and Turkey.
Moreover, if Bulgaria shuts down its pipelines there is no way for Serbia to get gas, there is no alternate route for them.
So this whole Russian cut the gases for countries is an empty threat, all that needs to be done if you still want to buy is "buy" it from Germany as Russia will never cut gas to them nor it is able to stop Germany from reselling it.

As for the whole threat of paying in rubles or so, they've cave in pretty easy and early on:

Quote from: adaseb on April 28, 2022, 11:06:27 PM

Yes it looks like many countries are starting to purchase Rubles because their currency pair is gaining a lot of traction. Wondering what Poland will do in the winter. I am assuming they are hoping this war is over by then and things will go back to normal.
However if it’s not over they will have no choice but to pay in Rubles. What other choice do they have. They got a reserve but it won’t last a long time. And in the cold winter they will have to comply to Russia’s demands because they don’t want their citizens to freeze.

Poland is getting its gas from Norway, they've announced from January before the war they will not purchase any Russian gas starting 2023, so n, nobody is going to freeze without Russian gas, just like all of us in Europe managed somehow to not freeze during the winters before there were any pipelines to Russia in the first place.

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Quote from: mindrust on April 28, 2022, 11:19:49 PM

Russia showed they are serious about this. Either the European countries or Russia will have to step back imo but right now none of the parties look like they are going to. Poland and Bulgaria will have to make a choice now. 1- Go along with Russia and not freeze. 2- Find an alternative supplier.

The second option is the favorable one but it is also the hardest choice because there isn't a country which can replace Russia.

Why are you talking such nonsense?

Read carefully how Poland will replace Russian gas supplies from a nutty supplier? In the 4th quarter, a new gas line will be launched, which will more than compensate for gas supplies disrupted by the Russian side. But after that, Poland and Bulgaria will NEVER buy gas from inadequate Russia! And Russia will have to put it somewhere. And if you didn't know - I'll tell you a secret - Russia has almost no global gas storage facilities. And the extracted gas will have to be ... just burned. Billions of dollars down the drain! This is the reality....

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Quote from: The Sceptical Chymist on April 28, 2022, 08:06:29 PM

Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 27, 2022, 08:05:08 AM

It will get interesting to watch how the politics will be developing now.

It's already interesting, but I'm afraid that this situation will turn from "interesting" to horrifying if it turns into WWIII when the West gets involved with their own military forces--and I'm talking potential nuclear conflict. As someone who lives in North America, the Russia/Ukraine conflict seems very distant, but I'm sure that's the way it felt here when Germany was trying to take over Europe in the 1930s. There comes a point where the western powers won't sit on the sidelines anymore and watch a dictator expand his empire through force. Granted, it took Pearl Harbor before the US entered WWII, but this is a different time and the US has a different president, so who knows.

I have yet to see Putin making any statements. Is that because he's being silent on the media or is it just that everything he says is being censored in the West? I'd like to hear what he has to say, and not filtered through someone else's mouth.

I think it's past interesting now and we should now be concerned on where all this is heading. There's an energy crisis coupled with inflation on the rise. There's also food crisis cause of the invasion which looks far from over as Ukraine is determined to fight back. With the west supplying them weapons and ammo, this could drag out for long.
This could very well turn into a bigger conflict if NATO gets involved with Poland being so close. I wonder what's going on in Putin head and what he's thinking. He probably envisioned these sanctions would come.
In his crazy drive to annex breakaway and now independent states, this could turn very ugly very fast.
I doubt the UN chief visit would change anything

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Quote from: Haunebu on April 29, 2022, 12:13:36 AM

Quote from: mindrust on April 28, 2022, 11:19:49 PM

Russia showed they are serious about this. Either the European countries or Russia will have to step back imo but right now none of the parties look like they are going to. Poland and Bulgaria will have to make a choice now. 1- Go along with Russia and not freeze. 2- Find an alternative supplier.

Agreed. Russia continue to screw their reputation by acting like gangsters in this manner which won't do them any good in the long-term as more and more countries continue forming negative opinions about them for various reasons.

Objectively speaking, I'm not defending Russia.

From Russia's own viewpoint, they are required to demand it because they need to have a market to maintain the value of the Ruble, or their own citizens will suffer. Russia has something European countries need, and they simply ask to be paid in the Ruble. It's a business proposition.

I believe some European countries are starting to agree, or it's their citizens who will suffer.

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Quote from: mindrust on April 28, 2022, 11:19:49 PM

Russia showed they are serious about this. Either the European countries or Russia will have to step back imo but right now none of the parties look like they are going to. Poland and Bulgaria will have to make a choice now. 1- Go along with Russia and not freeze. 2- Find an alternative supplier.

Agreed. Russia continue to screw their reputation by acting like gangsters in this manner which won't do them any good in the long-term as more and more countries continue forming negative opinions about them for various reasons.

Quote from: mindrust on April 28, 2022, 11:19:49 PM

The second option is the favorable one but it is also the hardest choice because there isn't a country which can replace Russia.

I disagree. There are several alternatives out there like LNG, Coal and Renewable energy which is why it's possible to stop depending on Russia for gas.

It won't be easy as you mentioned, but it's possible and this change will also help nature(Climate Change) in the long-term.

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Russia showed they are serious about this. Either the European countries or Russia will have to step back imo but right now none of the parties look like they are going to. Poland and Bulgaria will have to make a choice now. 1- Go along with Russia and not freeze. 2- Find an alternative supplier.

The second option is the favorable one but it is also the hardest choice because there isn't a country which can replace Russia.

adaseb

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Yes it looks like many countries are starting to purchase Rubles because their currency pair is gaining a lot of traction. Wondering what Poland will do in the winter. I am assuming they are hoping this war is over by then and things will go back to normal.

However if it’s not over they will have no choice but to pay in Rubles. What other choice do they have. They got a reserve but it won’t last a long time. And in the cold winter they will have to comply to Russia’s demands because they don’t want their citizens to freeze.

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Quote from: ivankoh on April 28, 2022, 10:15:14 AM

Quote from: Darker45 on April 27, 2022, 09:55:27 PM

This certainly must have harrowing effects on both Poland and Bulgaria. However, I don't believe both countries were not bracing themselves for this possibility. In the first place, that they remain adamant not to pay in rubles means they could survive without Russian gas. On the other hand, Russia is only expediting the process of European countries' weaning themselves from Russian gas supply. In so doing, not only is Russia isolating itself more and more, it also losses leverage. This counter sanction has its return damage.

I think, that seems like a double-edged sword if they are determined to push the risk higher. That seems to be the engine behind the 24% increase in European gas prices following the news that Russia closed gas valves to Poland and Bulgaria. Also, it looks like Finland refuses to pay gas prices in rubles but I think in the long run they don't really seem ready to be so assertive if they don't have ample gas reserves. Assuming Putin decides to prolong this scenario, The direct damage is huge if they don't have much incentive for the gas supply to support, the risk of massive inflation continues to cripple the global economy.

Yes, and although the conflict is basically happening in a single country, the ripple effect in this age of globalization is far-reaching. As a matter of fact, even before the issue of suspending gas supplies to some neighboring European countries, the price of gas products in a small nation far away in South East Asia has already increased. The last time I bought a 250-gram butane canister, the price was already $2. That's an increase of around 25%. That's not even a direct effect of this conflict.

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Russia will stop supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria for not paying in rubles, seen as Russia's toughest response to sanctions imposed by the West over the conflict in Ukraine. However, if the situation between Russia and the EU continues like this, it will greatly affect the global economy.

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 27, 2022, 08:05:08 AM

It will get interesting to watch how the politics will be developing now.

It's already interesting, but I'm afraid that this situation will turn from "interesting" to horrifying if it turns into WWIII when the West gets involved with their own military forces--and I'm talking potential nuclear conflict. As someone who lives in North America, the Russia/Ukraine conflict seems very distant, but I'm sure that's the way it felt here when Germany was trying to take over Europe in the 1930s. There comes a point where the western powers won't sit on the sidelines anymore and watch a dictator expand his empire through force. Granted, it took Pearl Harbor before the US entered WWII, but this is a different time and the US has a different president, so who knows.

I have yet to see Putin making any statements. Is that because he's being silent on the media or is it just that everything he says is being censored in the West? I'd like to hear what he has to say, and not filtered through someone else's mouth.

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Quote from: Yogee on April 28, 2022, 06:45:51 PM

Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

.... The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail

This coming from the people that keeps hitting Russia with sanctions hehe.

Countries United together on sanctions, and now every country wants oil. Russia is playing the lead role to keep everything within control. More plans of renewable energy production and requests for oil supply from East Asian countries failed. This is where EU mentioned it as gas blackmail... Hahaha Cheesy

Quote from: Yogee on April 28, 2022, 06:45:51 PM

Quote from: macson on April 28, 2022, 05:50:56 PM

.....
Russia has violated the treaty ^{(the oil trade agreement was written before the Ukraine-Russia war)}, but what i see now is that Russia doesn't care about that anymore, when European countries impose economic sanctions on their country, Russia immediately considers the written agreement to be automatically void. i know it's really tough for bulgaria and poland but if they are wise, they will surely accept the conditions from russia to save gas and oil supply in their country

Russia have been asking for other countries to honor some treaties before this conflict started from what I've read. Many of those requests were also ignored so it's not surprising they do the same.

Something has to be mutually addressed to end the war. If this keeps going on, both the country people gets affected alot. Already two months past and the war still continues. At some point it looks like European Union is playing an one sided role.

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Do you have a complete map of the gas pipelines from Russia to the rest of European countries? I'm also curious about the potential impact of this to the political landscape in the region.

Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

.... The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail

This coming from the people that keeps hitting Russia with sanctions hehe.

Quote from: macson on April 28, 2022, 05:50:56 PM

.....
Russia has violated the treaty ^{(the oil trade agreement was written before the Ukraine-Russia war)}, but what i see now is that Russia doesn't care about that anymore, when European countries impose economic sanctions on their country, Russia immediately considers the written agreement to be automatically void. i know it's really tough for bulgaria and poland but if they are wise, they will surely accept the conditions from russia to save gas and oil supply in their country

Russia have been asking for other countries to honor some treaties before this conflict started from what I've read. Many of those requests were also ignored so it's not surprising they do the same.

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Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles. It has cut off gas supply delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. I had earlier mentioned that Russia had threatened to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles and now, it has made good its threat by shutting off gas delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail while gas prices has increased by 20%. Russia says the move is in response to both countries refusing to pay in roubles while the roubles gains about a percent to the dollar.

Russia has violated the treaty ^{(the oil trade agreement was written before the Ukraine-Russia war)}, but what i see now is that Russia doesn't care about that anymore, when European countries impose economic sanctions on their country, Russia immediately considers the written agreement to be automatically void. i know it's really tough for bulgaria and poland but if they are wise, they will surely accept the conditions from russia to save gas and oil supply in their country

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Quote from: Pomogator on April 27, 2022, 10:46:23 PM

Yes, they did turn it off. After this news, many countries began to open special ruble accounts to pay for gas. Most small European countries cannot survive without Russian gas. I think Poland and Bulgaria will close their gas debts in rubles and will again receive gas. If the rest of the countries will not pay for gas in rubles, then they will also face the same fate.

No one, except for the governments of some countries "lured by the Kremlin" or sitting on the hook of compromising evidence, will pay in some ruble that no one needs. There are signed terms of delivery, there are settlement accounts. And the fact that Russia suddenly wanted to change - may want to, but who is she to set conditions for someone and change the rules of the game?

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Quote from: Darker45 on April 27, 2022, 09:55:27 PM

This certainly must have harrowing effects on both Poland and Bulgaria. However, I don't believe both countries were not bracing themselves for this possibility. In the first place, that they remain adamant not to pay in rubles means they could survive without Russian gas. On the other hand, Russia is only expediting the process of European countries' weaning themselves from Russian gas supply. In so doing, not only is Russia isolating itself more and more, it also losses leverage. This counter sanction has its return damage.

I think, that seems like a double-edged sword if they are determined to push the risk higher. That seems to be the engine behind the 24% increase in European gas prices following the news that Russia closed gas valves to Poland and Bulgaria. Also, it looks like Finland refuses to pay gas prices in rubles but I think in the long run they don't really seem ready to be so assertive if they don't have ample gas reserves. Assuming Putin decides to prolong this scenario, The direct damage is huge if they don't have much incentive for the gas supply to support, the risk of massive inflation continues to cripple the global economy.

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Quote from: TheBeardedBaby on April 27, 2022, 12:58:21 PM

Quote from: TheCoinGrabber on April 27, 2022, 11:59:11 AM

Summer can't come soon enough don't it?

According to the government information, we have reserves for 90 days (based on the winte rconsumption rates) so this scenario was expected after the expulsion of a dozen of Russian citizens conspiring against our country and spying for Russia.We were one of the first countries to colse our airspace for Russian airplanes so we were havely criticised for those actions and there were many threads from the Russian side. It was just a matter of time that to happen.

Nope.Bulgaria has natural gas reserves for one month.The alternative gas that is about to come from Greece and Turkey will be way more expensive and there's no guarantee that Greece and Turkey would agree to export gas to Bulgaria.
The whole "pay for our gas with rubles" thing is a big nonsense.The western countries are still paying with euro and dollars to bank accounts in Gasprombank,where the euro and dollars are being converted to rubles.
Basically nothing has changed,but the Russians are breaking the gas delivery contracts for no valid reason(or maybe to show the world that they are strong enough to blackmail EU countries with natural gas).

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Russia and the gas market - this is a training material "What is zutzwang. The best example of how to get to it as quickly as possible"

If a couple of years ago, although Russia was considered strange, it was considered a more or less stable supplier, then over the past half year, Russia has made maximum, and qualitatively, efforts to destroy this opinion! And she recently managed to reach the highest point - now everyone knows that Russia and Gazprom = a couple of complete idiots

Every action of Russia only tightens the knot on Russia's neck! Every action of Russia helps the EU to look for solutions and alternative suppliers!

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Quote from: Flexystar on April 27, 2022, 09:44:28 AM

Let’s not forget Putin is going crazy day by day and these things could really go in wrong direction and up to the extent that Putin is sending biohazards through those Gas Pipeline to win the war.

While he indeed went mad, I don't think that your scenario is feasible. You are talking about living creatures there, which will most probably have to survive living without oxygen, possibly high pressures, then going literally through fire, and afterwards still be alive and infecting.
Let's not be overly paranoid...

Quote from: kryptqnick on April 27, 2022, 01:14:35 PM

There are separate contracts for gas transit, I believe, so I don't think it's likely that Bulgaria will stop being a transit country for gas that's moving to other countries. Ukraine, for example, even though being very anti-Russia right now, is, at least as of March 21 (maybe it changed, I couldn't find info on that), is piping Russian gas to Europe to fulfil its contract obligations with the European countries (or so it seems).

Imho it greatly depends whether the transit contract was made with Serbia/Hungary, which I don't think so, or with Russia.
Since Russia has broken its side of one contract with Bulgaria, I don't see why wouldn't Bulgaria break the other contract with Russia as response.

Ukraine is most probably still allowing the transit to not hurt Germany and the other countries, not to favor Russia. On the other hand, the customers affected by Bulgaria closing the pipe would be anyway countries cheering for Putin.

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Quote from: tygeade on April 28, 2022, 02:08:03 AM

Quote from: marine4u on April 27, 2022, 02:28:25 PM

In terms of pure motives, this is completely understandable. No one denied the power they had in oil and gas, they needed to untie the ropes tied to the rocks to minimize the extent of the sinking. They may accept bitcoin as an alternative to the ruble, but it would be better to strengthen their native currency.

I think Putin is still the knifeman in this regard. Winter is coming and the initiative is in their hands. I expect the US and EU response to this scenario and I think the symptoms can last longer and there is no exception in the European countries.

It would be counterintuitive if they start accepting bitcoin. I mean it would help them bypass the sanctions when they want to get money out, which is what people wanted to do, oligarchs mainly, because they had too much money in Russia tied up and they wanted to get it out when they heard about sanctions.

But when they want money in, then they need to accept ruble just so that people would buy ruble and make it gain some value. We should all remember that it started at 70's range per dollar, then went to as high as 130's if I am not wrong and back to where it was, maybe even a little bit better all thanks to the fact that they force everyone to pay with ruble.

They are going to b blocked and BTC will not be cashed out because exchanges are already blocking Russian IP addresses. Their BTC will be flagged. But with Roubles, they can make their economy better.

EU could claim this gas blackmail but it seem necessary for Russia to take such action. It turns out Gazprombank which Poland and Bulgaria had to have a Rouble account in this bank to make transactions. Its time to look back whether their decision in sanctioning Russia was right.

tygeade

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Quote from: marine4u on April 27, 2022, 02:28:25 PM

In terms of pure motives, this is completely understandable. No one denied the power they had in oil and gas, they needed to untie the ropes tied to the rocks to minimize the extent of the sinking. They may accept bitcoin as an alternative to the ruble, but it would be better to strengthen their native currency.

I think Putin is still the knifeman in this regard. Winter is coming and the initiative is in their hands. I expect the US and EU response to this scenario and I think the symptoms can last longer and there is no exception in the European countries.

It would be counterintuitive if they start accepting bitcoin. I mean it would help them bypass the sanctions when they want to get money out, which is what people wanted to do, oligarchs mainly, because they had too much money in Russia tied up and they wanted to get it out when they heard about sanctions.

But when they want money in, then they need to accept ruble just so that people would buy ruble and make it gain some value. We should all remember that it started at 70's range per dollar, then went to as high as 130's if I am not wrong and back to where it was, maybe even a little bit better all thanks to the fact that they force everyone to pay with ruble.

Pomogator

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Yes, they did turn it off. After this news, many countries began to open special ruble accounts to pay for gas. Most small European countries cannot survive without Russian gas. I think Poland and Bulgaria will close their gas debts in rubles and will again receive gas. If the rest of the countries will not pay for gas in rubles, then they will also face the same fate.

adaseb

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So is the gas shut off or not. Basically getting conflicting info. Yesterday there was news it was shut off and then hours later there was confirmation that it’s back on. And today it’s in the news again that it’s shut off. So is the news lagging what is happening in real time?

Looking at the USDRUB chart you can see that many people are buying Rubles to pay for the gas it seems. It’s gaining value very quick according to the chart. Very volatile forex pair recently.

Darker45

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This certainly must have harrowing effects on both Poland and Bulgaria. However, I don't believe both countries were not bracing themselves for this possibility. In the first place, that they remain adamant not to pay in rubles means they could survive without Russian gas. On the other hand, Russia is only expediting the process of European countries' weaning themselves from Russian gas supply. In so doing, not only is Russia isolating itself more and more, it also losses leverage. This counter sanction has its return damage.

Hydrogen

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Putin announced gas must be purchased in rubles (didn't I later read somewhere that this was a hoax demand by Putin). It seems Putin follows through on his promises.

Could people lose faith in the european union if it fails to negotiate with russia and provide its states with protection? The EU is in a difficult situation being geographically located near to russia and china while attempting to maintain friendly relations with both.

Is there anyone who will step in to fill the vacuum and provide poland and bulgaria with alternatives? I think Elon Musk might do it if he hadn't already spent $40 billion on twitter. How much would it cost for europeans to develop alternatives to russian gas?

Gyfts

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Poland is taking in Ukrainian refugees and were ready to provide jets to Ukraine if the U.S. were to swap out any military equipment they donated (the deal ended up falling through, though). To the extent Poland plays a role in geopolitics with Ukraine as a border country, Russia seems to be willing to sacrifice whatever business they were doing with Poland in order to punish them for assisting Ukraine. I don't recall what miniscule amount of energy production relies on raw materials supplied from Russia, but I don't imagine there are a lack of suppliers. Logistics and infrastructure are the issues, and Russia knows that.

Fortify

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Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles. It has cut off gas supply delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. I had earlier mentioned that Russia had threatened to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles and now, it has made good its threat by shutting off gas delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail while gas prices has increased by 20%. Russia says the move is in response to both countries refusing to pay in roubles while the roubles gains about a percent to the dollar.

The whole of the EU has refused to pay in Roubles (except Hungary who will start in over a month's time), so Russia has specifically picked two countries instead of refusing payments from all countries. It's typical manipulative and hypocritical behavior out of the Russian government which just cements their reputation further as an entity that cannot be relied upon to engage in mutually beneficial trade. The sooner Europe is free from their oil and gas, the stronger Europe will become and the more subservient to China the extremely weakened Russia will become. Not only has Russia's army been crippled by this totally unnecessary and destructive war on Ukraine, but Putin is set on further destroying their economy - all Russian's will be left much poorer because of their leader who always sits in his luxurious palaces.

marine4u

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In terms of pure motives, this is completely understandable. No one denied the power they had in oil and gas, they needed to untie the ropes tied to the rocks to minimize the extent of the sinking. They may accept bitcoin as an alternative to the ruble, but it would be better to strengthen their native currency.

I think Putin is still the knifeman in this regard. Winter is coming and the initiative is in their hands. I expect the US and EU response to this scenario and I think the symptoms can last longer and there is no exception in the European countries.

avikz

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Quote from: Nerdy doctor on April 27, 2022, 07:14:27 AM

Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles. It has cut off gas supply delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. I had earlier mentioned that Russia had threatened to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles and now, it has made good its threat by shutting off gas delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail while gas prices has increased by 20%. Russia says the move is in response to both countries refusing to pay in roubles while the roubles gains about a percent to the dollar.

Lol! That becomes interesting now! I laughed my ass out when I saw US and UK both imposed sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine. Because these two countries are responsible for most numbers of human rights violations in the entire history of mankind.

And now when Russia cuts of gas supply to two insignificant nations, EU started crying. Lol! Too much dollar dominance must be broken at all costs. Russia is playing right!

kryptqnick

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This is a great example of how Russia assists the Western sanctions. The EU is reluctant to impose a gas embargo? No problem, we'll just make such demands that at least some EU countries will effectively not get our gas. The more bossy Russia gets, the more losses it suffers from.

Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 27, 2022, 08:05:08 AM

It will get interesting to watch how the politics will be developing now.
From what I've read, Serbia and Hungary, both cheering for Putin, get supplied through pipes passing through Bulgaria.
While Greece, although using Russian gas, offered help to Bulgaria, I've heard nothing from Serbia nor Hungary. I'd expect Bulgaria close down that traffic, it would be simply normal.

There are separate contracts for gas transit, I believe, so I don't think it's likely that Bulgaria will stop being a transit country for gas that's moving to other countries. Ukraine, for example, even though being very anti-Russia right now, is, at least as of March 21 (maybe it changed, I couldn't find info on that), is piping Russian gas to Europe to fulfil its contract obligations with the European countries (or so it seems).

TheBeardedBaby

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Quote from: TheCoinGrabber on April 27, 2022, 11:59:11 AM

Summer can't come soon enough don't it?

According to the government information, we have reserves for 90 days (based on the winte rconsumption rates) so this scenario was expected after the expulsion of a dozen of Russian citizens conspiring against our country and spying for Russia.We were one of the first countries to colse our airspace for Russian airplanes so we were havely criticised for those actions and there were many threads from the Russian side. It was just a matter of time that to happen.

naira

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There is no relief that Russia really wants to show its fangs of power with gas capital. Until now, countries have been lobbying even though they have not been able to take shortcuts. The suspension will remain in effect for any country that does not wish to use the Ruobles. As a result, overlapping gas supplies are hampered, making several countries think for a moment between giving up and following Putin rules for the sake of sustaining gas consumption that has become dependent or looking for other alternatives as alternatives. This will be very bad for the economic stability of a country that really cannot have other alternatives.

Upgrade00

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Majority of European countries already have wheels in motion to cut of their dependency on Russian Gas and oil within the coming months and years, so it is somewhat a logical approach for Russia to try and use it fully to their advantage now, this seems to me like a simplified version of the politics Russia is playing.

Would be interesting to see the response from Poland and Bulgaria and the rest of the West, Paying Russia in rubles would make sanctions less effective and strengthen their local currency, not paying them, those countries face a severe crisis which would affect their economy.

TheCoinGrabber

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Summer can't come soon enough don't it? Poland and Bulgaria are probably easier to bully but would Russia pull this on Germany?

Quote from: TheBeardedBaby on April 27, 2022, 10:02:16 AM

There are pipes to be finished this summer and a gas from Turkey and Greece will flow to Bulgaria.
It has been working effectively on these projects since 2019, luckily they could be finished this summer.

Now since the Russian gas will continue flow trough Bulgaria, the Russians have to pay for the transit. How this will be settled is not know yet. The Bulgarian PM is about to travel to Kiev to discuss the military aid, so I guess that's why everything is happening now.

Good that Bulgaria at least have that option. I suppose the Bulgarians can get some discount from Russia for allowing the fuel through. That way they can draw fuel from multiple sources.

jrrsparkles

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Just an initiative or warning sign for other countries from Russia so they will prepare themselves to pay in Rubles or bring other way of payment because they need gas in some way. This is the politics and everyone has to back then now on their own because every countries has their own problems so it is the new ear of world political game in my opinion.

fiulpro

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Russia is trying on sneaky ways to get to the bottom of this and the worst thing is, if the country is underdeveloped or developing they are ofc going to listen to the demands of Russia which would mean that they would have to bear the criticism from the entire world after this but their government won't be able to balance out the inflation and the rising prices as well therefore for some of them there is absolutely no way out, they cannot pay in rubles and at the same time they cannot just cut Russia off just like that until and unless the supply is balanced and the green energy takes ages to come in the whole process and therefore it won't happen suddenly at all, they would have to wait years and this war cannot go on for that long.

Quote from: TheBeardedBaby on April 27, 2022, 10:02:16 AM

There are pipes to be finished this summer and a gas from Turkey and Greece will flow to Bulgaria.
It has been working effectively on these projects since 2019, luckily they could be finished this summer.

Now since the Russian gas will continue flow trough Bulgaria, the Russians have to pay for the transit. How this will be settled is not know yet. The Bulgarian PM is about to travel to Kiev to discuss the military aid, so I guess that's why everything is happening now.

They are trying to be offensive towards the countries supporting Ukraine in other ways an insight into why there are some countries off the list and being neutral. I do think they should already realize that their military is weak now and at the same time they cannot destroy their whole economy as well, they would starve internally now with the widows only getting over a 130$ this is not even ideal for them let alone the world.

TheBeardedBaby

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There are pipes to be finished this summer and a gas from Turkey and Greece will flow to Bulgaria.
It has been working effectively on these projects since 2019, luckily they could be finished this summer.

Now since the Russian gas will continue flow trough Bulgaria, the Russians have to pay for the transit. How this will be settled is not know yet. The Bulgarian PM is about to travel to Kiev to discuss the military aid, so I guess that's why everything is happening now.

Flexystar

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Quote from: NeuroticFish on April 27, 2022, 08:05:08 AM

It will get interesting to watch how the politics will be developing now.
From what I've read, Serbia and Hungary, both cheering for Putin, get supplied through pipes passing through Bulgaria.
While Greece, although using Russian gas, offered help to Bulgaria, I've heard nothing from Serbia nor Hungary. I'd expect Bulgaria close down that traffic, it would be simply normal.

Let’s not forget Putin is going crazy day by day and these things could really go in wrong direction and up to the extent that Putin is sending biohazards through those Gas Pipeline to win the war.

You guys following me? The war is dangerous now and it’s more than 55 days of war. What if Putin go nuts with such harmful plan?

Doable or not is the later part, but you have like full connection in two countries and modern days modern technique of wars.

Z-tight

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Now this is the political and economic side of the war, as the physical battle rages on Russia wants to strenghten their currency and economic situation by forcing other countries in Europe to pay for their natural gas in rubles or face a cut-off. The situation is a difficult one for European countries dependent on Russian gas, are they going to pay for gas in Rubles and indirectly strengthen the Russian currency and economy, or face the consequences of a cut-off. In as much as one can say these countries would find other alternatives to Russian natural gas, but if that is to be possible it will be in the long run and if supplies are cut now then there would be gas rationing which will lead to scarcity for a long time and that is why the EU calls this move from Russia a blackmail. Op you did not put the link for people that are yet to see this development: https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-bulgaria-face-russian-gas-cut-ukraine-crisis-escalates-2022-04-26/

NeuroticFish

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It will get interesting to watch how the politics will be developing now.
From what I've read, Serbia and Hungary, both cheering for Putin, get supplied through pipes passing through Bulgaria.
While Greece, although using Russian gas, offered help to Bulgaria, I've heard nothing from Serbia nor Hungary. I'd expect Bulgaria close down that traffic, it would be simply normal.

_act_

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Russian energy giant Gazprom cutoff gas supply to Poland and Bulgary because they did not pay in Ruobles. According to what I have read on news, Poland will later not rely on Russia gas, but imminent action is needed for now. By next year, a new pipeline will be available to import gas directly from Norway to poland which will effectively replace the Russia gas. I understand this time could be a hard time because Poland import 53% of its gas even in this 2022 first quarter, it reduced from last year 61%. Actions are taken in a way they will not depend on Russia gas any longer by next year. Also Poland as been reducing its Russia dependency as it has been taking supply from Qatar than before in the past year for not to depend more on Russia. Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said his country and Greece will continue to work together on energy security and diversification. We hope that would be fruitful towards not depending on Russia supply.

Summer is already approaching, demand for gases will be reduced. Polish energy provider said polish underground gas is 80% full. Russia is only isolating itself in a way Europe will not later depend on its supply, though EU are working towards that already.

Nerdy doctor

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Russia has carried out its threat to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles. It has cut off gas supply delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. I had earlier mentioned that Russia had threatened to shut off gas supplies to countries that has refused to pay in roubles and now, it has made good its threat by shutting off gas delivery to both Poland and Bulgaria. The EU has responded saying this is gas blackmail while gas prices has increased by 20%. Russia says the move is in response to both countries refusing to pay in roubles while the roubles gains about a percent to the dollar.

Topic: Russia suspends gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria for failing to pay in rouble (Read 605 times)