I’m not pointing out about “bans, and regulations”. I’m talking about absolute acceptance, publicly or secretly, and an actual nation-state mining Bitcoin for the benefit of themselves, directly or indirectly. Because I believe Bitcoin’s true nature in international politics/geo-politics has not been truly discovered yet, nor has that been priced in.
there is a difference between "priced in" and "bottomline value support" increases
price is more subjective to speculative drama of emotion and temporary decisions and media hype of temporary price events.
what goes up can go down (pump and dump, hype and dip, spike and correct)
where as added value to bottomline support is more underneath the market price number. moving up at a progressive long term growth
prices can spike and correct depending on the mood and sentiment of speculators deciding which piece of news is important trade decision factor that day, and its temporary.
however the bottomline value support is based on the basic most efficient mining costs around the world absolutely no one would want to sell below because they cant even mine it any cheaper. so would rather buy coin that cheap and support the price from going below that line.
now take:el salvador
it has a total combined electric capacity of 2gw.
and has a geothermal power plant that has a capacity of 100mw(0.1GW) that is dedicating 1.5 mw (1500kw) to bitcoin mining
this is allowing for only ~450 asics, (0.075% country cap. 1.5% power plant cap)
so small things like elsalvator going full-on in bitcoin doesnt result in much actual 'value support' of massive hashrate difference (0.049exa)
after all its not even 1% hahsrate affect, nor 0.1%, but more like a 0.026% effect
(at current bottom line value of ~$37k, it translates to about $9.62 value support added. so not even noticeable difference.)
yes the media hype might have caused some price speculation last year when it was first announced. but it didnt even move the needle of a increased value support, to support the temporary price drama media hype, thus the price corrected after the hype
but somewhere like russia which has a capacity of 220GW for all uses..52GW renewable
if russia dedicates 1.5% of all its renewable capacity to bitcoin mining(0.78gw) that would add 27.3exahash to the mining competition. which is a 14% bump at current mining competition
(note: im using a high estimate of dedication of 1.5% of all renewable russian power plants)
(note: there's no announcement of an actual figure for dedicating to mining.. so expect 14% to be optimistic top)
(note: no mining farm set up yet. so expect 14% be alot less by the time things happen)
at the moment with a baseline mining cost (bottomline value support) of ~$37k right now, that can turn into $42k bottom line support
(see notes above for emphasis)
yes it can cause more temporary speculative price drama of volatile spikes and dips. but the effect, if russia was to follow a 1.5% renewable dedication, is only at most, 14%max.. which would be less of a bottomline support % as time moves on
so dont expect a massive "priced in" effect of actual value support, but do expect some media hype causing temporary spike price drama
in short. if news hype does cause a 200% price speculation spike(new ATH). dont expect the actual value support of actual mining cost increases to equally reflect to support the 200%.
thus dont expect russia to "price-in" to any new huge sustained support value