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Topic: Russian University Vows to Build 7nm Chipmaking Tools (Read 297 times)

legendary
Activity: 3472
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Interesting that this old topic was bumped after a long time and at this particular time!

With the recent large scale terrorist attack carried out by United States using electronics in Lebanon, a lot of movement started in the world to abandon Western electronics as much as possible (that is laptops, iPhones, etc.).
Based on what I've been reading over the past 2 weeks all these projects like the one in OP has been receiving extra funding and extra attention to speed up their development. That's not just Russia, a couple of other countries are expanding their microchips projects.

OP says the plan was to finish it by 2028, I wouldn't be surprised if with the recent terrorist attack the deadline be pushed to a lot sooner...
sr. member
Activity: 2464
Merit: 252
Russia's plans are always grand, so grand that even its Chinese brothers can't be successful at albeit having the resources at hand and the connections needed. To put it simply, Russia speaks before Russia does something, and most of the time it never happens. While they are technologically capable in their own accord, I don't think they have the materials, let alone the technology, to create the tools that even TSMC themself cannot create. This is one big claim for Russia, and I'm almost certain that this will not push through.

It's been two years since this thread was created, and we see that the situation in Russia with microelectronics is only rapidly getting worse due to the military invasion of Ukraine. Russia's economy has been almost completely converted to the military needs of the front. Any social projects are being cut or closed completely. Electronic chips for the production of weapons and military equipment in Russia are being removed from washing machines and other household appliances. If they could start producing their own electronics, this would have been done already, since there is a catastrophic shortage of it to support the war in Ukraine.

But of course, in Russia they often only brag about their capabilities, but this is very different from reality. Under the conditions of tough, but not universal sanctions, there is only degradation there, since Russia has never been famous for microelectronics, almost everything was imported from other countries, and high-tech developments are not made from scratch. For now, Russia is facing degradation and isolation in the foreseeable future.
sr. member
Activity: 2464
Merit: 252

Don't talk nonsense. The topicstarter news is about scientists from the group of Konstantin Koshelev, who 20 years ago created a source of extreme ultraviolet radiation on laser pulses in tin plasma, actually for ASML (US patent 6452194). Just a year ago in Russia there was no such powerful support from the state for the development of its own microelectronics, and now this direction has been given the green light.
A year ago, before the Russian attack on Ukraine, there were still certain opportunities in Russia to implement projects in the field of microelectronics. But this year the situation has changed a lot and not in favor of Russia. Of course, the military industry is now very interested in microchips, but the tough sanctions imposed to prevent this will do their job. Russia will be set back economically for many decades. Therefore, the next grandiose plans are unlikely to come true.
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1864
I find it interesting how "people" jumped in to support the "greatness of Mother Russia"  Grin

Don't talk nonsense. The topicstarter news is about scientists

We both know that scientists or not, this kind of declarations are political, especially in countries like Russia. And we both know that the lead scientists tend to fall off the windows because this kind of vows are not fulfilled.
Of course, the media is evil and tends to present only the extreme cases, which is usually failures.

However, only the future can tell whether I talked nonsense or not (and you too).
It is being reported - and Ukraine claimed and  have also mentioned that  Moscow was supplied with the drone before conflict  - - Iran claims no evidence that their drone are used - Ukraine president urged that IRan  needs to come clean from the attack done on Ukrain by Shahed 136 = KS


Iran is exactly the same terrorist country. More precisely, the mode. The people there are not so fooled by propaganda as in Russia.
The Iranian ruler has an idiotic dream to acquire/develop nuclear weapons and try to destroy Israel. Technologically, Iran is well developed, at least a much more technologically advanced country than Russia. Doubts ? Who begged for drones from whom? "Great Russia" in Iran or vice versa? Although, you can find on the Internet a lot of statements and fantasies of Russia about its "unparalleled" and "invincible" Russian UAVs Smiley But lying is a genetic tradition of Russia ...
So, Iran needs nuclear weapons. Russia was lucky - she still had both carriers and tenologies developed in the USSR by all the republics. And Russia, losing, is ready to do anything, just to hold out a little and delay its total defeat a little. And of course, Iran supplied UAVs to Russia, and most likely in exchange for nuclear weapons. Moreover, it was not long ago - about 2 months ago, Russia itself officially announced a meeting in Iran, representatives of the top of the Russian terrorist country, representatives of the Ministry of Defense, with Iranian "colleagues" in terrorism. And the goal was also announced - to get a UAV !!! It's all in open sources!
Iran, by the way, even "yesterday" denied the supply of UAVs to Russia. Officially, they said - "NO, we did not supply anything. No UAVs. No weapons." But after the destruction of a large number of Iranian UAVs in Ukraine, and a group of Iranian military advisers who trained the soldiers of a technologically backward Russia, Ukraine, the United States and Britain have irrefutable evidence of Iranian sponsorship of the terrorist country, backward Russia. And of course, Iran needs to somehow "get out"! Because now, due to the great internal tension in iran itself, there is a high probability that the outside will provide assistance in overthrowing this terrorist regime! And now they will invent anything so that the US, Britain, Israel do not "pay special attention" to Iran. They will even tell that Russia has STOLEN these UAVs from them.
full member
Activity: 2142
Merit: 183
So it seems russia is committing itself towards developing its own cutting edge semiconductor industry. They set a goal of developing 7 nanometer chip fabrication by the year 2028.

Analysts say russia would naturally take 10 years minimum to develop the technology from scratch as sanctions prevent them from sourcing components or data necessary to develop a 7 nm lithographic process.

So with all these economic sanctions in place, Russia is still thinking way ahead of all the other countries huh. Aside from the issue of wether they will be able to build this or not, its pretty ambitious although China might be able to do this in like 5 years or something. Even without all these sanctions, I kinda doubt that Russia will be able to outwit China in this because chip manufacture and all those cutting edge stuff related to it is already pretty much China's 'thing'
These are only the current plans of Russia, which may not come true. Now the military defeat of Russia in Ukraine is becoming more and more evident. This deepens all the internal contradictions within Russia itself, launches the processes of separation from it of numerous nationalities, which were kept in Russia mainly on intimidation and the strength of the central government. Now this central power has been greatly shaken, so the central part of Russia may be left without the Caucasus, Siberia and the Far East. And without their natural resources, including oil and gas, Russia will already be destitute, especially after this war with Ukraine, which will have to pay reparations for many more generations of Russians.
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1864
Lovely words, similar to the politicians of every country that protests they are the best.    Its to everyone's advantage if Russia achieves the very best they can, we are seeing something much different currently I do hope for better.
  So far as I know the lowest nm circuit technology underway is smaller then the width of my DNA, its really become absolutely tiny now.  Apparently Quantum tunnelling effects are occurring where during transmissions atoms appear to disappear and reappear elsewhere, I can only imagine harnessing such possibilities is extremely difficult to master and then mass produce.
russia has taken another city of Ukraine and detached itself from the Black Sea grain deal.
Now they will be shooting down all the ships coming and going to Ukraine. This will create another crisis !!

Please inform me, a resident of Ukraine, which "new city has been captured" by a terrorist country technologically behind? Smiley
The only thing they did today was out of powerlessness, they launched 50 missiles at peaceful Ukrainian cities, hydroelectric power stations and elements of civilian infrastructure. At the same time, 44 out of 50 missiles were shot down. Thanks to really high-tech air defense, including Western systems, which are supplied to us by our real friends.

And shelling grain caravans is quite expected from terrorists. But I don’t think that they will go for it, because. now the caravans are guarded, and Russia will not risk creating an open conflict against Turkey, for example. Because of cowardice and understanding that then before the Urals, Russia will be destroyed by the Turkish army Smiley
legendary
Activity: 3542
Merit: 1352
Russia's plans are always grand, so grand that even its Chinese brothers can't be successful at albeit having the resources at hand and the connections needed. To put it simply, Russia speaks before Russia does something, and most of the time it never happens. While they are technologically capable in their own accord, I don't think they have the materials, let alone the technology, to create the tools that even TSMC themself cannot create. This is one big claim for Russia, and I'm almost certain that this will not push through.
legendary
Activity: 2338
Merit: 1775
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In my opinion, this is a PR and Russian 7nm chips will remain in the project on paper.

The production of such products is an incredibly complex process.  Russian people are distinguished by ingenuity and creativity, but they lack perseverance, perseverance and patience.  The slightest mistake in the production of such chips (at any stage) leads to marriage.  In the shops for the production of 7-nanometer chips, there must be complete sterility and absolute silence. 

The Russians have a slightly different mentality, they can produce high-tech products in large volumes if the production is not critical to errors and defects.

In addition, such production is initially unprofitable.  There is no answer to the question, who will buy these products? 

There are only 140 million people in Russia, and Taiwan makes chips for the entire population of the globe (6 billion people).
STT
legendary
Activity: 4102
Merit: 1454
Lovely words, similar to the politicians of every country that protests they are the best.    Its to everyone's advantage if Russia achieves the very best they can, we are seeing something much different currently I do hope for better.
  So far as I know the lowest nm circuit technology underway is smaller then the width of my DNA, its really become absolutely tiny now.  Apparently Quantum tunnelling effects are occurring where during transmissions atoms appear to disappear and reappear elsewhere, I can only imagine harnessing such possibilities is extremely difficult to master and then mass produce.
legendary
Activity: 3248
Merit: 1402
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Planning to do something and actually doing it are two very different things. The challenges with how far Russia currently is from that goal are explained in the article. I think it's also very optimistic that they think there will be IT specialists (with mass exodus of professionals plus some going to the war) of a high enough calibre and even Russia itself as a more or less stable state by 2028.
But for now, unfortunately, I don't think Russia will really need its own production. Russia can do mass contraband, plus the fast that Belarus is usually missing from sanctions lists but is almost a part of Russia by now means that buying what they need via Belarus shouldn't be hard. Also, perhaps China will be willing to help and trade some things that it gets for itself, since China is all business regarding the war.
legendary
Activity: 3752
Merit: 1864
I'm crying  Grin Grin Grin Grin

Do you remember the Skolkovo project? How many "super projects" were there, remember? Can you tell us what really happened at the exit of this "Russian silicon valley"? Yes, yes - this is how "Russian Silicon Valley" was presented to the Russians, lovers of heroic fakes Smiley
The result of any Russian project, where the phrases "unparalleled" or "unattainable, for many years to come, technologies to the West" or "a breakthrough in the field (anything here)" appear - this means one thing - STEALING MONEY and FAKE! So it has always been, and so it will be... This is Russia! Smiley

Have you read about their "replacing Intel and AMD processors", technological masturbation called "Buy Cal"? Russian in them turned out to be equal to only the letters on the processor cover Smiley The technology was developed by ARM Limited, produced by TSMC, the set of commands is a full tracing paper of arm / x86. There were many heroic tantrums, articles "huge queues for processors, goodbye to intel and amd." As a result, even the State Bank of Russia tested this shit and said - no, even we cannot work with this. It does not meet our minimum requirements, nor the declared characteristics, in a word - in the trash!

Let me ask a simple question - in Russia, the only industrial technology that is able to produce a mass processor is machines using 80 nm technology. And for a long time there have been restrictions on the sale to Russia of something newer than the technology of the year 2000. Tell me - HOW do you think they will create industrial equipment for the 7 nm process technology?

I highly recommend watching a YouTube video about what a 10 and 7 nm process is, what equipment for the process technology, what difficulties and features. And you will immediately understand that high technologies and the dense middle ages of Russia do not intersect in this reality Smiley


What technologies can a backward country have, which for its military-industrial complex now
- according to the "gray scheme" buys household appliances in order to "solder" very primitive chips from there, for use for their own purposes.
- steal speed cameras in the EU to install on their drones

full member
Activity: 1092
Merit: 227
Limiting technology to what we know already is bit contradictory here.

Reasons:

1. During world war nations were able to put together best minds of the time to develop unimaginable technologies.
2. From chemical weapons to nukes all were developed ahead of its known Timeline with “LIMITED” resources.
3. Industries grew in terms of modern techs that were supposed to be Future stuff.


Now we all know this because we knew how it happened in the history and it teaches us prime lesson here.

Russia or any other country could also go beyond the limits create technologies which may or may not need Chips to run their programs. They are on to it because current electronics, serials, computer brain everything programmed and being run by that way.

For moment consider this as traditional way of electronics communicating those electrons to each other and run the particular machinery. In here let’s assume it’s about tanks, helicopters and jets.

Now, do we really believe that there is no other way to do this? Except silicon chips, scanners capable of working on nano scale and stuff?

It would take lot of time to discover new technologies but if Putin or some furious mind got above the lines then this war could lead to another “Modern World” inventions turning the whole picture upside down.

Future tech!!
legendary
Activity: 3668
Merit: 6382
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I find it interesting how "people" jumped in to support the "greatness of Mother Russia"  Grin

Don't talk nonsense. The topicstarter news is about scientists

We both know that scientists or not, this kind of declarations are political, especially in countries like Russia. And we both know that the lead scientists tend to fall off the windows because this kind of vows are not fulfilled.
Of course, the media is evil and tends to present only the extreme cases, which is usually failures.

However, only the future can tell whether I talked nonsense or not (and you too).
copper member
Activity: 2254
Merit: 915
White Russian
So it seems russia is committing itself towards developing its own cutting edge semiconductor industry. They set a goal of developing 7 nanometer chip fabrication by the year 2028.

Through the whole history of products as far as I know it, Russia had big issues with miniaturization. Smartphones made in 2022 have 4 nm (flagship Exynos) to 6 nm (cheap-medium Snapdragon) technology chipsets.
Intel i7 generation 10+ are on 10 nm technology.

So Russia on 2028 going 7 nm sounds both incredible and probably deprecated by then.
Plus, who will do that? Since the war means a huge exodus of brains, especially after the calls for the mobilization.

No. They will have to either steal the technology and gears to produce it, either find somebody who will sell them those chips without asking too many questions. I guess that option two has better chances.


Don't talk nonsense. The topicstarter news is about scientists from the group of Konstantin Koshelev, who 20 years ago created a source of extreme ultraviolet radiation on laser pulses in tin plasma, actually for ASML (US patent 6452194). Just a year ago in Russia there was no such powerful support from the state for the development of its own microelectronics, and now this direction has been given the green light.
legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1414
So it seems russia is committing itself towards developing its own cutting edge semiconductor industry. They set a goal of developing 7 nanometer chip fabrication by the year 2028.

Analysts say russia would naturally take 10 years minimum to develop the technology from scratch as sanctions prevent them from sourcing components or data necessary to develop a 7 nm lithographic process.

So with all these economic sanctions in place, Russia is still thinking way ahead of all the other countries huh. Aside from the issue of wether they will be able to build this or not, its pretty ambitious although China might be able to do this in like 5 years or something. Even without all these sanctions, I kinda doubt that Russia will be able to outwit China in this because chip manufacture and all those cutting edge stuff related to it is already pretty much China's 'thing'
legendary
Activity: 3668
Merit: 6382
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So it seems russia is committing itself towards developing its own cutting edge semiconductor industry. They set a goal of developing 7 nanometer chip fabrication by the year 2028.

Through the whole history of products as far as I know it, Russia had big issues with miniaturization. Smartphones made in 2022 have 4 nm (flagship Exynos) to 6 nm (cheap-medium Snapdragon) technology chipsets.
Intel i7 generation 10+ are on 10 nm technology.

So Russia on 2028 going 7 nm sounds both incredible and probably deprecated by then.
Plus, who will do that? Since the war means a huge exodus of brains, especially after the calls for the mobilization.

No. They will have to either steal the technology and gears to produce it, either find somebody who will sell them those chips without asking too many questions. I guess that option two has better chances.

legendary
Activity: 2912
Merit: 6403
Blackjack.fun
I thought China would be more suited to.making something like this. Huawei already have the rights to produce their own arm chips, are they also made in Taiwan? (a quick search says they at least were in 2020 so probably still are).

It's one thing to build your chips in a fab, a totally different to have the tools to build that in the first place.

ASML holds a near total monopoly on lithography, even TSMC and Samsung for example are 100% dependent on those machines, and neither has been able to match them and do their own, that's why everybody who has a clue about the long chain of logistics and supplies in the chip-making business knows that even if China gets hold of TSMC it can do basically nothing after the first production cycle is done for they will still need foreign machines, and the alternatives for ASML are either Canon or Nikon, just lol.

As for Russia, good luck, they will succeed where no other company has managed to do that, they can't even produce their own archaic chips now they want to build their own lithography machines, that's just how they wanted to sell pork meat to Indonesia or their magic Yota phone (which went bankrupt) while they can't even get old chips to build simple airbag systems for their cars.

Quote
Are 7 nm chips a bottleneck preventing russia from manufacturing these weapons of war on a large scale? If true it might mean that russia will not be able to produce T-14 armatas or new jet fighters until 2028 at the earliest.

Forget chips both the SU-57 and T-14 are plagued by a myriad of other problems, the SU-57 prototype was ready in 2004, the first flight in 2010, it's 2022 and they've only built 6 flight-ready planes, T-14 had 2000 units planned for 2015-2020, they don't have even now 100 pieces in total, including test units.
The chips are the last of their concerns, the problem is that they haven't been able to gather enough funds for the 10 mandatory yachts for each tank/plane batch.

Quote
IAP plans to build a fully functional alpha scanner by 2024. This one will not have to offer high productivity or maximum resolution but will have to work and be attractive to potential investors. IAP intends to build a beta version of the scanner with higher productivity and resolution by 2026.

Let's see how many yachts and mansions they will be able to make by 2024, cause those machines for sure won't be built.
China hasn't managed to do it in 5 years with unlimited government funds and Russia will do it in 2, yeah right!
copper member
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https://bit.ly/387FXHi lightning theory
I thought China would be more suited to.making something like this. Huawei already have the rights to produce their own arm chips, are they also made in Taiwan? (a quick search says they at least were in 2020 so probably still are).

Most of the patents for current chips are held by the US, UK or Japan so I think that's going to be one of the main things making the sanctions harder on Russia. I don't know if there's a reason for Russia to produce their own 7nm chips though, I'm not sure why they'd need so much efficiency and there might also be a competing architecture that gets open sourced by then (even just to spite them). Intel chips normally have 45nm technology with moderate energy consumption, smaller energy consumption machines (like arm with smaller chip sizes) are good for control units (such as on peripherals) so they don't need much power, but they're not an necessity imo.

It's unclear what the majority of anti tank weapons used in Ukraine are but I know the ones gifted from Europe come with components that mean the course of the missile can be changed in flight if a tank tries to "camouflage" it's infrared signals - if these are the main types in use there, there's a good chance an arm controller isn't needed as it'll be quite useless. The only other thing I could think is GPS/inertial guidance or object avoidance systems (if those are a thing) which might be the reason they have problems building them.

I wonder if the chip shortage has been the reason Russian fighter jets have been crashing into each other though too (or if it's just inexperienced/stressed pilots).
legendary
Activity: 2562
Merit: 1441
Quote
Russian institute plans to build 7nm-capable scanner that beats ASML's analogue in several years.

A Russian institute is developing its own lithography scanner that could produce chips using 7nm-class fabrication technologies. The machine is under development, with the plan to build it by 2028. When it is ready, it should be more efficient than ASML's Twinscan NXT:2000i tool, whose development took over a decade.

After Russia unleashed its bloody war against Ukraine on February 24, Taiwan was quick to ban shipments of advanced chips to the nation. The U.S., the U.K., and the E.U. then followed up with sanctions that effectively prohibit virtually all contract chipmakers with advanced fabs from working with Russian entities. In addition, companies like Arm cannot license their technologies to Russia-based chip designers. As a result, the Russian government rolled out a national program to develop the country's own 28nm-class fabrication technology by 2030, reverse engineer as many foreign chips as possible, and educate local talent to work on domestic chips.

However, there is a problem with a 28nm-class production node by 2030. Russia's most advanced fab can produce chips using a 65nm fabrication technology. Meanwhile, American and European makers of fab tools cannot supply their equipment to Russia due to sanctions, so the country has to design and build domestic wafer production equipment if it wants to adopt a 28nm node. Essentially, what has taken companies like ASML and Applied Materials decades to develop and iterate has to be done in about eight years. 

Apparently, the Russian Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences intends to beat all expectations and produce a 7nm-capable lithography scanner by 2028, according to its plans published on Nizhy Novgorod Strategy Development website (via CNews).

A modern lithography scanner capable of processing wafers using a 7nm-class process technology is a highly complex apparatus that involves a high-performance light source, sophisticated optics, and precise metrology, just to name a few critical parts. However, as a leading applied physics university in Russia, IAP believes that it can develop such a tool in a relatively short amount of time. 

The tool will be somewhat different from scanners produced by companies like ASML or Nikon. For example, IAP plans to use a >600W light source (total power, not intermediate focus power) with an 11.3nm exposure wavelength (EUV wavelength is 13.5nm), which will require considerably more sophisticated optics than exists today. Because the light source of the device will be relatively low power, it will make the tool more compact and easier to build. Yet, it also means that its production of the scanner will be considerably lower than that of modern deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools. That might not be a problem, according to IAP.

When it comes to timing, IAP may be slightly too optimistic. For everything below 32nm, chipmakers use the so-called immersion lithography (which is essentially a booster to DUV tools). ASML introduced its first immersion lithography system — the Twinscan XT:1250i —  in late 2003 with a plan to deliver one in Q3 2004 to produce 65nm logic chips and 70nm half-pitch DRAMs. It took the company about five years and another generation of tools to announce its 32nm-capable Twinscan NXT:1950i in late 2008, with customer deliveries starting in 2009.

Then, it took the market leader some nine years to deliver its 7nm and 5nm-capable Twinscan NXT:2000i DUV tool in 2018. TSMC used less advanced tools with multi-patterning for its first-generation N7 fabrication technology, but the timing of ASML’s introductions demonstrate how hard it is to transition from 65nm to 7nm. It took ASML 14 years to go from 65nm to 7nm. Now, IAP, which does not have any experience in chip production or ties with chipmakers, intends to build a 7nm-capable machine for volume production from scratch in about six years. While the plan does not sound feasible, it looks like IAP is full of enthusiasm.

"ASML, the global lithography leader, has been developing its EUV lithography system for almost 20 years and the technology has turned out to be incredibly complex," said Nikolai Chkhalo, Deputy Director of the Institute of Physics of Microstructures of the Russian Academy of Sciences for scientific and technological development. "The main objective of ASML in this case was to maintain the extremely high productivity that is needed only at the world's largest factories. In Russia, no one needs such high productivity. In our work, we start from the needs and tasks faced by domestic microelectronics — and this is not so much about quantity, but about quality. First of all, we need to transit to our own fabrication processes, develop our own design standards, our own tools, engineering, materials, so our own path is inevitable here. In fact, we need to balance between simplicity and performance."

IAP plans to build a fully functional alpha scanner by 2024. This one will not have to offer high productivity or maximum resolution but will have to work and be attractive to potential investors. IAP intends to build a beta version of the scanner with higher productivity and resolution by 2026. This machine should be mass production ready, but its productivity is not expected to be at its maximum. The final iteration of the litho scanner is said to emerge in 2028. It should get a high-performance light source (hence better productivity), better metrology and overall capabilities. There is no word how many of such machines IAP and/or its production partners will be able to produce by 2028.

It should be noted that fab equipment is not limited to lithography scanners. There are other types of machines performing etching, deposition, resist removal, metrology, and inspection operations that are not made in Russia. Furthermore, there is somewhat less advanced machinery like ultrapure air and water generators which also are not produced in Russia. Even if IAP RAS manages to build a lithography tool, Russia will still be a few hundred tools short of building a modern fab. Also, fabs need ultrapure raw materials produced in countries that will not supply to Russia.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/lithograhy-tool-russia-7nm-2028


....


So it seems russia is committing itself towards developing its own cutting edge semiconductor industry. They set a goal of developing 7 nanometer chip fabrication by the year 2028.

Analysts say russia would naturally take 10 years minimum to develop the technology from scratch as sanctions prevent them from sourcing components or data necessary to develop a 7 nm lithographic process.

I think russia might conceivably fast track their development. The blueprint has been laid by corporate espionage and theft of classified and confidential material. Russia will have no need to reinvent the wheel if they can concievably steal or borrow all of the needed intelligence. Russian hackers were blamed for stealing the US elections in 2016. Its possible state sanctioned electronic attacks could seize documents needed to produce small scale chip fabrication. There are many past precedents for similar events in the past.

The real question is to what extent lack of 7 nm chips is preventing russia from full scale manufacture of jet fighters, tanks and missiles. It is known that russia has only produced prototypes of its T-14 armata tank. As well as only prototypes of its newest line of jet fighters. Are 7 nm chips a bottleneck preventing russia from manufacturing these weapons of war on a large scale? If true it might mean that russia will not be able to produce T-14 armatas or new jet fighters until 2028 at the earliest. Which might give NATO near to a 6 year grace period.
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