Satoshi Dice and the future. | Bitcointalksearch.org

MPOE-PR

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Quote from: Bowjob on January 11, 2013, 04:35:52 AM

Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on January 10, 2013, 07:09:17 PM

If bitcoins goes to $1000/BTC, then why are you caring about satoshiDICE turning less profits when BTC is worth $1000 each? Huh

Okay, lets's assume that $1000/BTC in 5 years.

Shares are 0.00475 BTC today($0.06) at $14.00/BTC and that amounts to $4.75 per share in the future, assuming $1000/BTC

Now, think what will happen to the amount of BTC that will be rolling in Satoshi Dice's bank roll assuming $1000/BTC.. would it still be 33k BTC at today's valuation? Probably not. My concern is, I buy S. Dice shares now, but in the future the price of the IPO might go down (BTC value) because people may bet the same or even higher value dollar wise, but not BTC wise. The dividends then will be greatly reduced BTC wise causing a lower IPO price. I'm afraid when BTC takes off, it might leave S.Dice behind. It all depends if S. Dice can keep up with BTC's bullish nature.

Of any business you can invest in, there's precious few as likely to keep up with BTC.

🏰 TradeFortress 🏰

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Quote from: Bowjob on January 11, 2013, 04:35:52 AM

Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on January 10, 2013, 07:09:17 PM

If bitcoins goes to $1000/BTC, then why are you caring about satoshiDICE turning less profits when BTC is worth $1000 each? Huh

Okay, lets's assume that $1000/BTC in 5 years.

Shares are 0.00475 BTC today($0.06) at $14.00/BTC and that amounts to $4.75 per share in the future, assuming $1000/BTC

Now, think what will happen to the amount of BTC that will be rolling in Satoshi Dice's bank roll assuming $1000/BTC.. would it still be 33k BTC at today's valuation? Probably not. My concern is, I buy S. Dice shares now, but in the future the price of the IPO might go down (BTC value) because people may bet the same or even higher value dollar wise, but not BTC wise. The dividends then will be greatly reduced BTC wise causing a lower IPO price. I'm afraid when BTC takes off, it might leave S.Dice behind. It all depends if S. Dice can keep up with BTC's bullish nature.

It's expected that the BTC wise returns from S.DICE will slightly decrease, but if BTC really takes off the new volume should make up for it. That's my personal opinion.

If BTC drops in value, then I can see the returns in S.DICE increasing, but if people start leaving BTC then holding shares won't help ya.

Bowjob

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Quote from: 🏰 TradeFortress 🏰 on January 10, 2013, 07:09:17 PM

If bitcoins goes to $1000/BTC, then why are you caring about satoshiDICE turning less profits when BTC is worth $1000 each? Huh

Okay, lets's assume that $1000/BTC in 5 years.

Shares are 0.00475 BTC today($0.06) at $14.00/BTC and that amounts to $4.75 per share in the future, assuming $1000/BTC

Now, think what will happen to the amount of BTC that will be rolling in Satoshi Dice's bank roll assuming $1000/BTC.. would it still be 33k BTC at today's valuation? Probably not. My concern is, I buy S. Dice shares now, but in the future the price of the IPO might go down (BTC value) because people may bet the same or even higher value dollar wise, but not BTC wise. The dividends then will be greatly reduced BTC wise causing a lower IPO price. I'm afraid when BTC takes off, it might leave S.Dice behind. It all depends if S. Dice can keep up with BTC's bullish nature.

🏰 TradeFortress 🏰

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If bitcoins goes to $1000/BTC, then why are you caring about satoshiDICE turning less profits when BTC is worth $1000 each? Huh

evoorhees

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Democracy is the original 51% attack

Of course it would be silly to expect the bitcoin qty bet on SD to be the same when coins are worth $1,000.

The $$ value of the betting should remain fairly constant, and if more people play then that amount will raise.

There is also the "wealth effect" so that if bitcoin doubles people will feel richer and feel okay with spending or gambling more, so nominally the btc amount bet at SD may still increase if the btc price increases, but really it all depends on the aggregate behavior of thousands of people. Very hard to predict.

giantdragon

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Quote from: ianbakewell on January 10, 2013, 01:26:40 PM

but the increase in volume (much more players) will make up for it and then some.

Huh, there are no warranties that S.Dice will keep monopoly on the Bitcoin gambling market for the long period, competitors don't sleep Wink

01BTC10

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How would they get all bitcoins in the world if I don't even play?

Edit: I see your point but I think gamblers will lower their bets if bitcoins get more scarce and valuable. Then dividend and share price will find equilibrium between their lower price and higher bitcoins value.

Hope my english isn't too much broken Lips sealed

Bowjob

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Assuming Bitcoins indeed appreciate in price, let's say $50/BTC, and more and more people get into Bitcoins, is it logical to think that S.dice shares will drop in price?

According to the prospectus, Satoshi Dice is expected to profit 36,386 BTC per year. So great. In 577 years, S. dice will get all the Bitcoins in the world. But we know that's not true, because as price of BTC goes up, people may want to adjust their bets to match the fiat price accordingly casuing the bet volume to go down, thus decreasing dividends and lowering the IPO.

***Disclaimer*** I own 31,800 shares of S.dice, I can't stop thinking about this. I wonder what other people think.

Topic: Satoshi Dice and the future. (Read 1492 times)