Topic: [SCRYPT] Probability of not solo mining a block in a period of x time? (Read 687 times)
February 10, 2014, 07:42:56 AM
Thanks, finally I was unlucky. I resumed solo mining and almost immediately got such block.
February 09, 2014, 03:07:05 PM
Oops. I got it slightly wrong; I missed the 2 days bit.
Lambda = expected number of blocks in the period
So, for 2 days, lambda = 3.08
P(No block) = e ^ -3.08 = 4.5%
Lambda = expected number of blocks in the period
So, for 2 days, lambda = 3.08
P(No block) = e ^ -3.08 = 4.5%
February 09, 2014, 02:37:21 PM
Thank you sir.
February 09, 2014, 02:31:18 PM
This is a simple application of the Poisson distribution.
Lambda = Expected number of blocks per day
Prob (No blocks) = e ^ -Lambda
In your case, 1 block per 0.65 days = 1.54 blocks per day.
P(No blocks) = e^ -1.54 = 21%
Lambda = Expected number of blocks per day
Prob (No blocks) = e ^ -Lambda
In your case, 1 block per 0.65 days = 1.54 blocks per day.
P(No blocks) = e^ -1.54 = 21%
February 09, 2014, 02:31:10 PM
The calculator is just an estimate... you could hit a block within 1 second, or you could never hit a block, thats how it works
Yes, I know but I want to calculate the probability of not finding a block for a period of x. 
February 09, 2014, 02:29:46 PM
The calculator is just an estimate... you could hit a block within 1 second, or you could never hit a block, thats how it works
February 09, 2014, 02:27:21 PM
I'm actually solo mining Dogecoin with my own private MPOS pool. The CoinWarz calculator tells me that I should mine one block per 0.65days however I've been mining for 2 days without solving any block.
How could I estimate the probability of not finding a block for a period of x days ? I'm wondering if I screwed something in my pool setup.
How could I estimate the probability of not finding a block for a period of x days ? I'm wondering if I screwed something in my pool setup.
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