This is actually bullish as we move into 2019 because the SEC has specifically stated what is necessary to get approval:
“Among other things, the Exchange has offered no record evidence to demonstrate that bitcoin futures markets are ‘markets of significant size.’ That failure is critical because, as explained below, the Exchange has failed to establish that other means to prevent fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices will be sufficient, and therefore surveillance-sharing with a regulated market of significant size related to bitcoin is necessary.”
As a March 2018 registration statement from the SEC noted, “the [ProShares] Funds do not intend to hold Bitcoin Futures Contracts through expiration, but instead intend to either close or ‘roll’ their respective positions.” This had been specifically designated as a potential risk for the two ETFs in question –– in addition to the “extreme volatility and low liquidity” attributed to both Bitcoin spot and derivatives markets.
”When the spot market is unregulated –– there must be significant, regulated derivatives markets related to the underlying asset with which the Exchange can enter into a surveillance-sharing agreement.”
And hinted they want to approve an ETF:
"[The agency] emphasizes that its disapproval does not rest on an evaluation of whether bitcoin, or blockchain technology more generally, has utility or value as an innovation or an investment."
Note the NYSE is planning to offer futures which may settle
physically which thus ostensibly would address some of the SEC’s concerns:
The news confirms sources in May that had suggested the NYSE operator was considering launching physically-delivered BTC futures contracts, distinct from those currently offered on CME and CBOE that are ultimately settled in fiat. Analysts said at the time that physical delivery would open “the floodgates” to institutional capital and potentially result in some “big price moves” in the crypto markets.
This chimes with Mike Novogratz’s recent estimation that “a trusted, name custodian — [such as] a Japanese bank or HSBC or ICE or Goldman Sachs — [is what would ultimately] allow institutional investors to feel comfortable.”
But it's coming…
Cboe Global Markets Inc. wants to be the first to list a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, though there’s still a lot of work needed to win approval from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
“As we chip away at their issues to make them less concerned, at some point they’ll be comfortable with an ETF,” Chris Concannon, the Chicago-based exchange operator’s president and chief operating officer, said in an interview.
The SEC has been wary of bringing crypto to the masses with an ETF despite speculation one would be endorsed as early as this month. It postponed a decision last week on a proposal that would allow the fund from VanEck Associates Corp. and SolidX Partners Inc. to list on Cboe. The SEC earlier rejected an ETF proposal by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, who run the Gemini Trust Co. cryptocurrency exchange. The regulator is concerned about manipulation in the mostly unregulated digital currency markets.
“The SEC is likely to delay until February of 2019 and the chances of a Bitcoin ETF approval in 2018 have always been low,” Hany Rashwan, chief executive officer of crypto startup Amun Technologies Ltd., said last week.
It's likely the VanEck Bitcoin ETF will also be disapproved in Sept:
https://www.coindesk.com/sec-delays-vaneck-solidx-bitcoin-etf-decision-to-september/But what could possibly come out of that disapproval is wording from the SEC that is very bullish. Remember there is strong possibility of a new ATH in 2019:
https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/most-important-bitcoin-chart-everhttps://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-heavyd-re-anonymint-re-anonymint-bitcoin-to-usd15k-in-march-usd8-5k-by-june-then-usd30-k-by-q1-2019-20180819t141422240z