As I was doing this little exercise, it occurred to me that as probability of loss rises vs. probability of compromise - there is a point at which Alice will be better off with a single key. I guess the exact point at which this happens will depend on the specific probabilities. Not sure how you would estimate those two for something like a safety deposit box in a bank. I guess depends on your jurisdiction a lot.
Your thougths makes sense but they are biased.
If Alice Has 2 backups only (no need to have more) and BOb has only 2 papers as well, Bob would be in a greater risk using a multi sig. If bob loses 1 paper, he lost all. And if Alice loses one, she loses nothing.
As the majority of people only have 2 pieces of paper because they dont need more (unnecessary risk), you would have to comapre 2 pieces from Alice and 3 from Bob.
Anyway, you have enough material already in this thread to decide whetever you want or not to use a multisig.
There are no real gains for the majority of users. But if it looks good for your case and you want to use, go ahead.