As such, selling a fixed asset, pegged to a fixed computing unit, is bound to follow the same valuation curve as servers do in my business. That is, you buy it shiny and new at a huge premium, and you recycle it 3 years later, as by then it's no longer worth the cost of power to keep it operating. The CPU miners have been through this. The GPU miners are going through this right now. Eventually the FPGA and ASIC miners will too. It's inevitable.
Right. This is
exactly the decision faced by someone wanting to purchase mining equipment - he wants his revenue from mining to cover the cost before his equipment depreciates. There's no magical way around it. If he believes it will cover it he invests, if not not. If everyone is afraid to buy equipment the difficulty will drop, increasing the profit for those who do invest. Mining bonds allow to make the same investment, but without the physical hardware purchase and operation. Meanwhile it allows the issuer to do the physical operation, without the risk of the investment. The raised funds go directly towards hardware purchase.
So as an investor, looking into one of these mining bonds, I have to make sure that the dividend payout covers the cost of the bond -before- it is essentially worthless. If you look at the google doc I posted above, you'll see that none of the current dividend payouts cover the entire cost of the bond in under 6 months.
As said this is purely a function of the bond price. The price is determined by the market and it's ok to argue that they're overvalued. If you think they are, you shouldn't invest in them and should consider shorting them.
The best right now is PUREMINING with a 220+ day payoff.
I think your numbers are a bit off, PureMining is currently the most expensive bond per MH/s.
How much do you think a 1Mhash share is going to be worth when the difficulty is 10x what it is now, AND the payout has been cut in half?
Not much, and the same applies to anyone who invests in hardware. The one exception is BFL's trade-in program, which is an anomaly not accounted for in the design. It also should be a once in a lifetime event.
The same applies to mining companies too - they raise funds and use it to buy hardware. If the hardware devalues, so does the company.
Special bonus to the mining operator, "The issuer can buy back the bond at a price equal to 1.2 times the highest price the asset was traded on GLBSE over the prior 744 hours." So when people realize that the dividend on a 1MH bond is going to drop through the floor and the bond value plummets, the mining operator buys it back up and continues on his merry way.
There is no way for the issuer to profit from the buyback clause. If the price declines to the point where the buyback is cheaper than the original issue, it means the normal obligation of the bond has already decreased. Also, the money was already spent on purchasing hardware to back up the obligation, the issuer doesn't profit from the decrease in mining profitability, the whole point was that he's indifferent to it. The buyback exists only to deal with emergencies, and there must be such a clause - "forever" is a long time.
Thus, to me, making an investment in a fixed computing unit makes no sense whatsoever. This is especially the case with the huge jumps ASICS are bringing. Might as well have invested in 486's after the pentium had already been announced, benchmarked, and slated for delivery.
Then nobody should buy mining hardware. They can go ahead, I'll enjoy mining 7000 BTC per day on my CPU.
The way out for the mining operators and investors in their bonds would be to modify the contract to increase the MH output of a given bond 10x.
And they will use magic to increase the hashrate of their hardware?
However if I were an investor shorting the bond, this is the point at which I file a lawsuit against the mining operator for violating the contract.
The issuer's obligations are to bondholders, not shorters. He has the right to do better than stated in the contract.
There is one mining bond with a difference on glbse and that is MOORE which offers growth in the value of the mhs/$ every week. Its remained fairly stable in price as a result whereas other bonds will continue to lose value.
Yeah, I like that one. Seemed to be well thought out.
Fixed hashrate bonds emulate hardware purchase. An increasing hashrate bond doesn't emulate anything and can't be backed by anything, it's a purely speculative investment not only for investors, but also for the issuer.