#4 is exactly, perfectly wrong, by the way. Who suggested such a thing might be true?
As far as I'm aware, every government that has implemented a lockdown. And not just suggested, they have put it into practice; they have been throwing billions of dollars around desperately trying to prop up their economies, because GDP has plummeted everywhere. Have you really not noticed that? What do you think might have been the consequences of no state intervention?
It's nice having the discussion anyway, even though I'm fairly confident that we'll never agree on anything
Regardless, this question has been variously posed throughout history. Notably as the effects of "government intervention" during the Great Depression of the 1930s in the USA, where a lot of historians concur that government policy LENGTHENED the depression, and made it worse. Also much discussed is Lyndon Johnson's "Great Society" initiative, intended to lift minorities up out of poverty.
By comparison, the 1893 depression was very short lived, and may be considered a model case in which there was no government massive aid program.
https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-depression-of-1893/You've got to agree that the fact that "every government" having embarked on a course provides ZERO PROOF that it is the correct action. Regardless, what will determine the recovery is the extent to which peoples' behavior has been changed or modified. In simple terms, will they go back to spending exactly the same as in 2019? If so, businesses and jobs will exist in similar amounts. If not, businesses and employment will be altered to suit the new conditions.
As one example, I do not think peoples' vacations will included ocean cruises in the future. So that's history, and those jobs and that spending is gone. That alone has many repercussions.
All that having been said, in the USA we have states, and we can experiment with things like UBI to a fair extent. I'm not at all opposed to that. What I'm opposed to is attempts to put such schemes on an entire country based on any type of philosophical construct (marxist, socialist, libertarian, anarchist, and yes capitalist).