Topic: September didn't follow its bear cycle (Read 774 times)

When you check the chart of bitcoin you will understand and know that since September 2023 their is no sign that the price of bitcoin is moving fucking high, so I believe that the price of bitcoin is something that have been appreciating started from the beginning of the September, so bitcoin will regain its bullrun again in the 2024 so therefore all the information of bitcoin I'm seeing now all are not real concerning bitcoin market.

So is this something that we must be thankful ? instead of being amazed or distracted  because
this simply implies that market is not like what many says about following the trend or having History repeating itself as this
shows what we are expecting may bring different outcome like this Year and was so different and what more this November
and December that I know there are so much to come , may be fun or maybe cry.
But whatever it is , we all must be ready and aware if sideways happened then let it keep your hold but if te constant increase
then best to Sell for a while (to those not willing to HODL of course)

Not sure though, all road to Bitcoin in my opinion, so every altcoin is going to be affected, but I don't think that if Bitcoin goes down, investors are all automatically going to Altcoin or even Ethereum, it's more to that. Bitcoin is still going to be the one who's going to dictate the market, as obviously every altcoin is being paired to BTC/altcoin.

I will agree that large institutions could be the market maker, but don't underestimate the average joe or retail investors like the majority of us. I think we are the one who is going to move the market into the bull run, not those large institutions as they could have set their stash already and waiting for the block halving and eventual bull run and see how they are going to profits.

Its never been easy in the first place on which predicting on where the prices would go here on crypto space is something that would really be always a challenge. There's no one on this world
would be able to know on whats happening in the market on which there are really factors on which it could really be able to affect it out on what are the outcomes or results of it.
This is why people/investors/traders would really be always having that kind of speculative approach from time to time.

Following into its bear cycle? There's no way for us to make out some conclusive approach because every month of the year would really be never ever be the same on which means that
you couldnt really be able to tell on whats going on the market on a specific month. Its neither it would be following or not, then its not really that shocking if you do ask me.
People do really love on being that conclusive when it comes to this on which they do really believe that there would really be some sort of pattern.

Thing here is that we do really know on what we must do and on how we should act because if we dont then for sure it would really be
that creating those bad decisions when it comes to investment.

Price increase and correction will occur because it is not yet higher worth that actually happens due to halving so we will see more elevation in price. Bitcoin price will hit the value of 40k$ to 42k$ this year so it indicates that halving will shows us a continous growth in the value of bitcoin which is the desire of everyone.

Cryptocurrency market is not straightforward so accuracy of prediction is not possible always but the price once goes higher because of bitcoin then bitcoin will become most acceptable currency throughout the world. As bitcoin always aid in the financial correction of holders so in coming halving the condition will also be same and majority will attain their dreamed profit.

It's hard to say what will happen next, although the market is growing quite well even as news about CZ is spreading in the market. But we should not be subjective that the market will not decrease anymore. Fomo and optimism people are not enough to maintain the bullish momentum of bitcoin because we are not the ones who decide the trend of bitcoin. Market makers, large institutions... are the ones who decide how bitcoin will move. Don't let the excitement kill us, be alert every time the market goes up while the halving has not yet happened.

Regarding the market situation, I think that once bitcoin goes sideways and ETH surges, we will have an altcoin season.

honestly it depends if there's a good news keep appearing one by one, i'm pretty sure decline could be avoided, since the market sentiment is getting good, people are investing left and right believing that bitcoin will be bullish eventually. even though the same as you, i would already expect some correction along the way, since thats what usually happened when the market kept on rising more and more, eventually there needs to be some time for accumulation. but seeing that there are some real good news about ETF, i'm kinda positive that we are definitely gonna get imminent bullish at the right time in the future maybe next year.
the one thing that I know for sure is that, considering altcoin rise this recent months, im kinda positive that altcoin will also come and probably will happen at the same time when bitcoin is rising.
that'd be great scenario if truly occurs.

Every month is a different story for me , because we don't know what the plans of the investors, of the traders, will be, but those who move the market are those who have the most money, like the institutional investors, the big millionaires, they can control the market only at a time, not always, because I have seen in some youtubers that it takes a lot of money to make an upward movement and it is not that big, it is a movement of a minimum amount, sometimes it is not even seen in the market it is just a little Enhancement, but this is all you should see, one month? December ? can it go up ? Yes, because the current is mentioned, whether to buy bitcoin or buy in bitcoin it can be.

DCA and HOLD are the strategies that I continue to do at the moment. Collect as many Bitcoins as possible by doing DCA.
I have prepared money for this strategy and it is for the long term. Bitcoin is now still above the price of $37000 and it is still holding and is likely to break $38000 again. if this continues and the market trend still improves, Bitcoin could reach $40k before the end of this year.

Price increases and corrections are two things that happen very often in the market under any conditions, so it is quite natural that you and some other people are not sure that the market will continue to rise at the end of this year. In the past two days alone, there has been a gradual Bitcoin price correction, so it cannot be denied that the price correction is still there and can happen at any time, at any moment. However, further increases will also be possible in Bitcoin after the end of the year, so be patient to see a better market.

Proving that History isn't repeat itself ..

September seems to be bearish from many years same us October to be bullish most of the years but what happened this year? October made its way up to treat market bullying .

The Graph shows how credible market to make different moves and also different action for their supporters expectations .

same with what I see here (and yes also happened in the past)  that History sometimes comes back but mostly? it isnt !! so let market do its homework and show us what it can bring from this Month and till December .

DCA and HOLD are the strategies that I continue to do at the moment. Collect as many Bitcoins as possible by doing DCA.
I have prepared money for this strategy and it is for the long term. Bitcoin is now still above the price of $37000 and it is still holding and is likely to break $38000 again. if this continues and the market trend still improves, Bitcoin could reach $40k before the end of this year.

Based on a very long time experience of trading, I've heard a lot of bullshits about it and my advice to any trader who cares to take it is that they should stop listening to myths in the market. Myths can only be responsible for such an expectation as the market is dynamic, it will never continue to follow an exact pattern in the name of some history or a particular month's cycle. Bitcoin in particular, it's still very young, which is what is deceiving so many people. Bitcoin has not lived to celebrate its silver jubilee (25 years) yet, let alone its golden jubilee (50 years). It is until it achieves all these and even more that certain conditions/characteristics would be ascertained of it, and this is when people would know that most of their assumptions about the coin are just nonsense.

There is no exception in the financial market, markets don't follow historical patterns over and over again, and Bitcoin can't be an exception to this. It was still better when the whales and a few sectional people were controlling the market and had a strong say over it where all that they hinted on social media was what the coin would do. No, that was then, Bitcoin has now been inculcated into the mainstream of the financial market and the implication is that it would rather follow better the right market dynamics without some sectional people manipulating it and forcing it to form some kind of cycle and pattern.

Personally, I am not surprised as things unfold this time, and I've seen a lot that preached how Bitcoin would behave before halving simply because it happened in the past, but what we are seeing is so much different from what had happened in the past. This is an asset, and a lot of factors could drive the price of the asset up or down, we should not always believe that one particular theory must always be obeyed. If it's so, then the neutrality and dynamism of the market would be deprived.

This happened in the past doesnt automatically means that they would really be happening in the future and this is something that we should be putting up into our minds. There's no way that there would be
assurances that it could really happen again and this is why we should really be wise on making some back up plans whenever it would be showing up on different path.
As a trader or investor then you should always be having those Plan B's or back up plans literally because its not always been the same and it is really just that right that you should
really be versatile as possible. If you wont really be that making yourself on having those wise decisions or plans then you wont really be able to survive this market.

I am not much of a bitcoin analyst, but I don't think there are patterns that have to be repeated, I think bitcoin goes up because other things happen , let us know that they are controlled by other types of movements, and among them they may be what are close. If it is with wars, with very strong world events, this is so that they change the meaning of bitcoin downwards or upwards, but if what was fulfilled last year is not fulfilled, it is not bad, it is what is being generated so far , for that reason we should not trust too much in the patterns, which are sometimes very Accurate , but these current events are very different from those of last year.

ETFs and Halvings are two factors that will drive a lot of demand, so they should be good benchmarks for making analysis. I think it's time for big investors to get in and buy as much as they can, even though the ETF is still on hold. There is no better time than now than to wait for a deeper decline, which is increasingly unlikely at a time like this.

Buy with DCA and Hold, that would be the best advice if they are still unsure about the market. About today, bitcoin has crossed $37k again. The realization of a breakout of $38k has not yet been achieved as I write this, but $38k is getting closer and may be reached in the near future.

That will be a fundamental force that will continue to drive Bitcoin prices higher. and yes a delay will only make the hype stronger than before and this has been proven by the fake news spread by many media about ETFs. It's not without reason why it's getting stronger, because Bitcoin is approaching the 4th Halving which makes everything better until that moment comes.

It seems like what you said might not happen, but this is actually a good signal for the market in the future, even though I'm not completely sure that the market will continue to rise. because the halving is still a long time away, and usually experiences a final decline before rising again.

Even we do say that those current coins that been hyped now to reach out 100-1000x in the bull run would really most likely be ignored when BR happens. People is already anticipating on something
because its been that recommended or really that in the main talks without even trying to think that changes and  sudden alterations could really happen when BR hits.
There's no such thing about assurance because if things turns out to be that different when time come and this is why it would really be just that normal that there would really be
changes that along the way could happen. So expect the unexpected because it would really be always on that way. You wont really be that making yourself that so sure
for things to happen in the future.

This is why as much as possible it would really be that better that you should really be diversifying your investment as much as possible because if you do only focus
on a single point but it ends on having no major movement on bull run cycle then you had just missed out that other opportunity to make profit. This isnt
really just that talking about Bitcoin but also in other options as well like altcoins.

Once again the price hit higher, and that is the proof that we are on the right path. I get that sometimes people fear, and there is a FUD in the market, but we are once again above 36k and that should be clear indication that we are doing fine. September was the first month where we did alright, I mean it looked promising, but October was the real king, the price went high like crazy during October, I am very happy with that and I think that was the start of a much bigger bull run.

People are looking at the price like "will it go more", and I keep laughing because I think this is nothing, this is just the start and the price will go up like crazy after this. We need to realize that it takes nearly 2 years to peak, and we are at the start of that right now but we need a lot more time to grow and be better. I hope that people could realize that, because if they do not act quickly, they are going to end up losing a lot of money and time on this for sure.

It's more true than people believe. You know when you should buy and believe? When everyone has a bad prediction.

When should you sell? When the ads come back and Bitboy is promoting the next big thing.

Cycles didn't follow in September most likely because everyone was saying it would

That's why people who want to trade in crypto must always be able to keep an eye on crypto market movements. With prices always changing from time to time, it will also influence what happens in the crypto market. Without carrying out analysis and just looking at the history of the crypto market so far, it cannot be used as a basis for determining the decisions we will take.

That is why we must always study trading analysis so that we can improve our analytical skills. If someone wants to invest in Bitcoin and bide their time to take big profits, they should be able to hold it for at least 3-4 years. Because of the bull run factor, which is likely to occur in 3-4 years but if it doesn't happen because the situation has changed, they have to be able to keep holding it.

Before and after the halving, something will definitely happen so they need to prepare themselves. If they still wanted to accumulate more, now was still a good time. Bitcoin prices now tend to go up and down, although not too deeply, so they can accumulate it again.

I agree for this guys. it's a balanced way of looking for btc price. A 4% rise ain't enough to say we're surfing on a crypto wave this month. After all, we're not seeing any big momentum to break past that historical resistance level of 30k. And, let's keep sights realistic and expect Bitcoin to be somewhere between 30k to 40k by the end of the year. Let's return to topic by OP. In my eye, and don't get me wrong, analysis is important in crypto, but it doesn't guarantee profits in crypto. In my opinion, analysis of past charts in crypto should not be used for the following year. It seems risky to me and almost like gambling.

The fundamentals are heavy these days. A bullish reading on various charts will be definitely backed by the actual situation of the Bitcoin market right now. Although delays on Bitcoin spot ETF applications were decided by the SEC just like it recently delayed the approval of Franklin Templeton's application, this has actually made the hype even stronger. The more they delay the decision, the more the number of application grows, the more the demand of a spot ETF seems to grow even stronger. And then there is also the halving which will happen in April next year.

Of these various factors, fundamentals are the main reason why history will not always be the same and the tendency for Bitcoin prices will increase when big moments occur.
The information and graphs studied will be based on the price opinions that will be generated. Trends will easily change depending on the situation and conditions, but the cycle will look the same as previous years. We can compare it with now.

It is better to remember that the market of crypto is volatile therefore don't think that all the things will occurs as Same as that occurred in history because everything changes when the time goes. People have set the strategy that profit from bitcoin can be possible if someone follow the rule of waiting for at least four years so in that four years may be one see highest worth but all are just assumptions.

People will make their choices according to the market condition like if market is going to pump so people wants to accumulate bitcoin because everyone follows predictions and history but the actual truth will be identified when time arrives. Everyone is saying that halving is coming but no one knows that during halving will there be the same situations as that was in past or it will be change so try to work according to the market condition and make preparation for each type of circumstances.

We should all come to terms with the fact that "usual" stuff or whatever is not real, we do not have "usually it does this after this", that's not real, chart reading is not done that way, what happened is not deciding factor on what will happen. What you could do with indicators is seeing what people are readying up for, like if there is a big wall at 37k and no wall until 42k, you could see that from the charts, and yes then you can invest, or have 38k a big wall and no wall until 30k, then yeah it may go down. But to say that you have seen it do head and shoulders so you think it will go up, that's silly.

September was a good month, October was even better, and November seems to be awesome, we just need to see those as the reality. We are nearing the bull run right now and we need to end up with something that will benefit us on the long run, if we can't do that then we are not going to end up with anything good. We should be considering that as an option and we could end up doing better.

History doesn’t always repeat but it often rhymes. We can’t base our trading or investment plans on what happened in the past. Obviously we can use indicators & various charts to base an opinion but there are many factors to consider. We should be heading into a bullish period for a couple of years now so bear that in mind.

Bitcoin's journey is indeed very interesting to follow because many people are still analyzing it based on what has happened before. They make predictions about what might happen. Many of these make two possibilities that could happen. One time, the price direction increases. And secondly, when the price direction decreases.

From the predictions they make, they will determine what they should do. If they are in doubt, they will do nothing and watch the market move. If they see any signs of increasing or decreasing, then they will start placing buy or sell orders. It will depend on where the market is moving.

We cannot rely on history because everything has changed now. More people are using Bitcoin as an investment, making many people join the crypto market. That means anything can happen and we have to be able to analyze it to find something useful for us. And now, we are seeing the price get another correction because this may be the weekend. Usually, corrections come at weekends like now.

I highly agree with you. Traders will benefit the most in this idea since they can still make profit when the market is bearish, unlike investing you can only get profit when the price increases. The current price action of Bitcoin is making the higher high, and many people thought that the HH is 35k but it's not. The current high is $38k and if the price won't break this high possibly it will going to retrace to get enough liquidity below to send the price higher. Just like what you have said, be like water, just go with the flow of the market.

I feel like the unexpected is the expected in the crypto world, we do not know what's going to happen and that makes everything expected. The price goes down? That's normal, price goes up? That's normal too. We shouldn't really care about what it does, that is not our job and we should not be expecting it to do one thing and shock when it does the other thing. You should still invest according to what you expect, like if you think it is going to go up then you should buy and if you think it is going to go down then you should sell.

However, just because you expect one thing, doesn't mean you shouldn't be ready when the other direction starts to show itself. Plus just like how it happened in the last week, you should be ready for both moves, it went over 37k, went near 35k and went over 37k again, that's not an unusual thing in the crypto world and definitely something that people should be a prepared for on the long run if you want to profit from investing.

the ETF news was going strong it actually caused many people to anticipate the rise of its price therefore increasing the people accumulating and as a result also increase the demands for bitcoin even right now there is news about ethereum ETF that is just as massive bitcoin, once all the good news coming out we won't see bearish as projected by the many speculators out there and even analyst, but instead we will see some massive bullish after all, bullish will eventually come.
if bitcoin didn't follow its usual routing of getting bearish in september when for in the future doesn't that simply means that maybe we'll be seeing a good market with good trend from now on? i guess despite the fact that the price of some coins including bitcoin have risen high enough its still good for accumulation.

I believe the ETF news has a role to play. Maybe not a significant role, but it's still a role because that news will increase the demand for Bitcoin. We can't know the extent of the role it plays.

Another factor is the fact that halving is coming up. People have this thought at the back of their mind and they may be led by different reasons to buy Bitcoin now. Also, people will want to buy now because they are speculating a bull run, so this may be the lowest Bitcoin price would be before the halving.
FOMO has a role to play in this.

It's like there's a pattern but it's not really there.
It's still a false thing and the predictions made are still not necessarily the same even when using accurate past data.

But you need to learn about the annual cycle because the cycle will run according to the trend that has occurred.
Look at how the cycles happened in the past, it's almost the same although not completely. But it can be a reminder for you how the cycle can occur at the same moment as the current halving.

November is a good trend for Bitcoin like the previous year, but December will give a little stronger downward pressure because of the Black Friday moment, but it will be a good point of increase for next year.

Changes would really be that something that could happen on point and unexpectedly on which means that if ever the price didnt really follow on what it do have on last or previous year then it isnt really that something shocking. Its true that it is really that bound to changes or possibilities that those things wont really be just as the same on where it is on last years. Bear cycle and bullish ones could really be also changed up too.
If we do really tend to zoom out on things then we could really be able to see on what are those factors that could really possibly give out effect into the present price.

We know that there's no one could be able to predict on what the future looks like and this is why it would really be just that normal that changes is really that something that could really be seen on future months or years ahead. This is why it would be always that wise on making out adjustments basing up on the things that we are really that dealing with currently. You would really be needing to be that versatile
if you do really want or like for you to make yourself sustain or else then you would be finding yourself that having kind of problem towards your investment decisions.
Just put up into your mind that price conditions or situations cant really be that the same from time to time or even we do say that there are indeed patterns but there would be no
assurance that similar events could happen on next years to come.

While we remain conscious of history and anticipate a possible recall of times associated phenomenon, we could as well reckon on the fact that, all activities that played out to the resultant isn’t stagnant or designed to occur in the same way. There are bounds to be changes, changes that can alter the timing and occurrence of an event.

It takes just one swift news or change in policy to bring about certain awareness that could result in changes. History is only there to guide you and not act as pointers on what will be. It could either motivate you to take certain investment decisions after identifying certain elements in the market within a period or aid you to decide against.

Yup, and that's the other thing I first mentioned that everything is possible as a prediction. Anyone can predict but nothing and absolutely nothing is guaranteed.

I personally think dip/crash around halving will be the case but every cycle has different exceptions. Just that, between no more crash to rally from here on, too good to be true is less likely than, pain first, before joy.

I don't think ETF matters. Short term, but not permanent like actual global economy, war, etc

September did better than expected. But it was not bad at all. August did worse than expected. So the price was bound to go up. People saw opportunity when the price was down in August. Hence they intended to buy more coins. To maintain the demand of the coin, the price automatically went up. So nothing much to discuss about this little uptrend. Yes September didn’t follow the past trends, but I am sure, 2024 will be really big for Bitcoins. Just don’t lose hope and wait for the right time.

I was thinking in this direction but there is no substantive evidence to support the claim. When the erroneous tweet by Cointelegraph came out, market responded vigorously leading to a gain of over $5k with few hours before the news was debunked and clarifications made that saw price drop abruptly. This is much of the effect I know the ETF news had on the Bitcoin market. After few days the market rallied and even exceeded the price the ETF news took it to. So I will not assume the news of the ETF is entirely responsible for the gains recorded in Bitcoin price recently... there should be other factors which are yet to be clear.


There may be exception this year unless perhaps, the ETF applications get rejected which will send a shock to the market. However, should the ETF get approval by January 2024, we might not see any serious dip prior to the halving. Nevertheless, it is always safer to keep an open mind and watch the market do what it pleases even as we prepare for whatever be the outcome.

Hmm, September, Gone November is almost also hitting the ending weeks, September directly follows its bear cycle well here in this industry nothing is reliable if you consider the historical data in the short term, everything mostly goes with the sentiments. NOV mostly people assumed that it would provide the opportunity to re-accumulate the Coins by a healthy correction.

Last night's 1st estimated target was achieved with some of the limit orders filled on the 35k, I'm assuming the second target of around 32k and the last one on the 30k, now it all depends on Friday Let see how it goes.

I understand that the current bullish momentum is all related to Blackrock. Which means, bearish pressure is yet to take effect.

Remember, there is always a big dip near halving so we still have to go through one bad period minimum.

World economy is still breaking. In Asia all time inflation and weakness for currencies. This will be felt in crypto. So for us thinking of bullrun, it's coming BUT we must bear a lot of pain first. No way we go up and up all the way from now on.

There could be pattern that we have to look at the past to predict the future, but it could still be a hit more miss as the market is very hard to predict because it's very volatile. Just like in October, I will say that no one expected a huge spike in the price as he simply slice to the barrier that time which is $32k and now we move past it and it's our support line. So it's very unpredictable and we should understand that.


Or better yet, just be a long term investor so that you won't be affected by this price movement. Just buy thru DCA and go hard week by week, month by month and then just wait for the bull run to occur and then sell your stash slowly to maximized your profits.

We may have bullish and bearish season but it’s certainly no fixed months when it will hit the market. Even history cannot be a sure guarantee that it’s going to repeat again or might create a new market history. This is a clear evidence that the uncertainty and the unpredictability of the market is even higher than its history.

The only way to predict or determine the current state or season of the market is through close monitoring of the market and its important events that will have an impact on the market. Although history is still important, but it’s never safe to rely on it more often as these current big news and events leave more impact on the market.

Why is this BTC thread in alt coins? It looks to me that this should be in economics and not here.

This is confirmed only by the fact that Bitcoin does not have any cycles. Therefore, in order to predict the price of Bitcoin for the future, it is necessary to closely monitor the general state of the economy, as well as news that is directly related to the cryptocurrency.

Each Year has each movement , not because some has almost the same scenario and movement or what they called History repeating itself yet some years are far different.
and lets not just rely to what others are calling or predicting because market depends on how we deal on it.
so better to believe your instinct than believing those people.
specially twitter ? that is far from what comes true mostly.

It is natural that this is the case, the behavior of assets changes over time as they get closer to their real value, when bitcoin was worth just a few cents people could buy a few dollars worth of bitcoin and become millionaires, but this is no the case anymore, spot trading was way more profitable due to the volatility of bitcoin being extreme, but as its market cap has increased its volatility has gone down, fortunately it is not as if traders lack assets to trade in this market thanks to the high number of altcoins that exist.

This is also what I observe, for me, as time goes by every year, we are going healthy and becoming healthier, maybe because of a lot of factors. For me, the first is because of the volume and adaption.
Volume by there are already lot of money pouring in the cryptocurrency market plus a lot of new people is getting introduced to cryptocurrencies everyday.

Bitcoin becomes even less volatile every year. The fluctuation is not as good as before. Trading on the spot is every harder than before caused by there was no enough fluctuation. The small capital traders are impossible in making decent profit from bitcoin trading.
The small shrimp shall go to the futures to get decent profit. It's likely there will be no huge gain or loss during october. The price seems stuck in the same place.

Bitcoin was not increasing a lot last month. The main question is how long this trend will happen? The same thing is also happening with the altcoin as well.

The big coins are not worhy anymore to be used for spot trading. The price swing is not that good as before.

Same here. At first I thought it's about disruption of the hike but after reading again, I think it means the price are now above $26k. The increase wasn't big enough, that is why we haven't heard a cause of it but it can be a normal buy out of the retail investors and the whales. There is no momentum yet because it's not that long since we witness the price rise.

It can also be an impostor like other previous months where it is only positive in the beginning but the rest where full of reds, so lets not assume too much. Luna, FTX and Mt. Gox issue are I think old already but I know it was only Binance who got involved in the issue last time. There is no need to worry though as the issue seem to be fixed already.

After all, we can't expect either to see the market keep on bearing when there is a change in market demand. If we see that the month of August is in bearish condition, we can never expect this will happen the next month. Absolutely, it all depends on the situation and September is quite moving high a little as people are taking advantage of the situation. A sudden increase in buying demand will result to a price increase and that is what we experience. And also, this October, neither we experienced the same as in September - that is what we called market volatility.

I agree.

Having a plan is a must because you'll not know if from this cycle, there will be some catch or it will just the same in the past. And that's why it is better to be prepared than not.

There will be good analysis with history of back up but still the unpredictability remains for Bitcoin that you should always expect.

We cannot isolate a specific month of the year and start making assumptions based on similar months in past years, and everyone who tries to promote this is looking for facts that do not exist in this data. A fixed 30-day interval in the chart will not lead you to a correct conclusion, and it is better to read the technical analysis. According to the available conditions and taking into account the support and resistance points.

Well, some people did it but not me. These are some reasons I see, we haven't heard of huge scams and hacking incidents in big exchanges nor have we heard of another big issue against the SEC. This has a significant impact on the investors who feel that the market is good and reliable which leads them to buy more.

This will eventually tell us that sometimes history never repeats itself and has no assurance at all. Plus, the volatility of the market makes things and the upcoming trend become unpredictable.

We should understand the matter of speculation and especially according to historical data, many people seem to believe it as an indicator, and really I think it should only be a reference. We need to combine research with many other things to evaluate the current state, over the past month the news is really not too special and most of it focuses on negative issues. There are also some expectations that many people speculate about the future, but I see that anyway, the strategies are different so I personally don't pay too much attention to whether it has to increase or decrease, a new bullish cycle that many hopelessness can happen in the next 2 years, so a short game will only increase tension.

When everyone is really that anticipating for something and expecting for those common patterns which on based up on the things that happened in the past and everyone is really just doing on the same move.
Then expect that the market would really be always loving on going to the opposite side of things which would be leaving into those people who are waiting for the right opportunity whether to sell or to buy.
Its true that not all things that happened in the past would reflect out and would really be happening in the future on which we do know that market isnt something that predictable or could really be known
on which it would really be that causing up for tons of people had move into the other direction. Always put up into our minds that probabilities of opposite things to happen would be always there.
Manipulators or market movers are the ones who would really be dictating this market and same goes with a little bit mix of sudden adoption.

Always anticipate those probabilities or chances and this is why it would be always relevant on setting out some plan B just in case the market didnt move as planned.

We're all that belief that history repeats itself but when it doesn't, that's not an unsual thing.

What we can conclude for this September is that the always thing that matters for Bitcoin as a description and that is it's being unpredictable.

No matter how tallied your analysis and predictions backed and based with good and accurate data, you'll never know how its attitude towards the market is when its feature is unpredictable.

I think that this whole cycle is already canceled.

When everyone predicts something (like impact of halving), they also prepare for it. And when this happens in a big enough scale, it means that the fundamental reason people see for the price growth, is already priced in. And that what i think has happened. So we are in uncharted waters now.

Maybe it will affect in other halvings more when people aren't counting on it and haven't bought everything they could before it.

well history can be used for reference but of course people with logic will never think that everything will just be the same like in the past surely there will be difference even more so in the case of price speculation like this things would always differs compared with the past, same with stock.
therefore referencing is always a thing to do but also judging from current condition of the market is just more relevant in this case.
I personally would just invest at price suited for entry and then simply just don't care for next two year so that I don't need to do some complicated analysis since everything is so uncertain anyway.

We know that Bitcoin has some price history, but that doesn't mean that the price of Bitcoin some years ago would be the same as for the current year and in the same month. We know that the price of Bitcoin is usually affected by different factors, and as such, every year the price will slightly or significantly be different. The price of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies is so dynamic that one cannot just decide what the price will be or what it will not be next. We mostly only speculate on the price of cryptocurrency because we want the price to go up so we can sell to make a profit, while some also want the price to fall so they can buy.

Betting that any ETF will cause a change in price may not be wise. It is true that we do not have deadlines for this year, but there is no guarantee that it will be approved in January.
The price of $30,000 seems strong and the momentum is not enough to break through, but we still have 3 months and several times to meet the resistance level, one of which I think we will succeed in. Therefore, it is most likely that we will test 31,800 before the end of the year, and from there it will be determined whether we will see 40,000 or whether the price will continue its sideways movement.

But if we drop below 26,700, there will be a double bottom pattern, meaning we will touch $17,000 again, but I think the possibility is $40-$41k.

I agree that not reaching the cycle thingy, because it has been going up and that's the most important thing when you could do that. The end of September has been something that we could reach to a point.

I believe that we are going to be something that you could calculate and we need to be careful about it but that doesn't mean that we are going to end up some risks that we are going to take as well so we should be careful about that too. Take the risk as much as you want to take but also be careful about the drop and that is going to be something that prevents it for the drop so you should be helping each other out. So, always end up with getting that type of return one way or another which should be something that could profit you while also making sure that you are not going to hurt your finances.

I'm bit confused about the phrase "rise below". I assume this is a typo but you are right about the momentum. The month of October historically appears to be bulish and previously the bitcoin price managed to rally more than 50%. The $30k is crucial resistance level which needs to be broken, and as long as bear holds it the confidence level won't rise.

It appears to be a strong year for bitcoin. Despite some significant fud from Luna, FTX, Binance, and Mt. Gox, we are still close to the $30k level which is significant. I am not confident that bitcoin will be around $40k by the end of the year. I think the market will continue its movement sideways until the first ETF approval deadline in January 2024.

This thread is best fit into the speculation section and not bitcoin discussion as you think, you can move the thread to the appropriate section from the bottom of the page by your left bottom you get the option to move or lock thread from there.

 
Back to the topic of discussion, although Bitcoin hard a rough start for the month of September but towards the middle of that month, bitcoin began to build a momentum that brought us to the current position, although, many spectators thought Bitcoin was going to do a more downtrend movement, but the end justifies the means and Bitcoin was able to end the month of September in around 28k which is a highly remarkable point for Bitcoin.

There is something that has pushed the price to rise below $26,000. No one knows what it is and it may appear as purchases in the records of one of the companies when this quarter’s report is issued. But in any case, a 4% rise does not mean that we will witness an upward wave for this month, as we may remain below 30k most likely as there is not enough momentum for this historical resistance level, but before the end of the year we will be between 30k to 40k.

Going back a full month, in late August or early September, many people on several site and on the cryptocurrency Twitter were suddenly very vocal in saying that September was bound to be bearish for Bitcoin because the previous two had seen significant dips and because September is simply historically one of the worst performing months for cryptocurrency.

But this time was different:

Here, we can see that despite the lack of significant bullish news, with the possible exception of the release of the Ethereum ETFs, September did close a full +3.9% higher than August. Even so, with such low levels of liquidity as they are at the moment, we don't need much news to impact prices.
In any case, this is yet another example of how previous performance is not a guarantee of future performance. While I personally believe that the past will always and forever be a part of the future, many people simply have a tendency to anticipate the future and base their financial decisions on the past, which I believe to be reckless and nothing more than gambling.

While history can never be exactly the same, it does frequently rhyme, therefore this does not mean that we should dismiss it entirely. The past, present, and future must all be balanced, and we must pay attention to both the past and the present as well as the future.