Serious fundamental analysis / forecast

wxa7115

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Quote from: DaC0nsumeR on September 11, 2021, 02:53:39 PM

Is there any halfway serious, i.e. insightful, fundamental analysis on Bitcoin and the crypto market?

Even a serious discussion here, but specifically taking into account MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT.

It seems like 90% of what you find online is either A) complacent TradFi or B) delusional libertarianism and Austrian fundamentalism.

Taking nothing for granted, what is a reasonable forecast for Bitcoin by the year's end?

Fundamental analysis does not work this way, I think you want to use the wrong tool for the job, fundamental analysis can tell you if the asset in which you are investing is strong or not and if there is reason to think it could go up in value during the next years.

However fundamental analysis is not going to tell you when this is going to happen or the magnitude of the movement, fundamental analysis allows you to get into an asset before it goes through a bullish phase but nothing more than that, if you want a prediction about the price at a particular point in time then you need to use technical analysis.

Darker45

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You are asking for a fundamental macroeconomic analysis by the end of the year? That's micro. The macroeconomics of Bitcoin is beyond the weekly and monthly and quarterly price forecasts.

In the macro level, in other words in the economy of Bitcoin as a whole, the forecast is basically grounded on the fact that Bitcoin has a fixed supply of 21 million against a backdrop of fiat currencies which are literally unlimited. Bitcoin's injection to the circulating supply is hard-coded as well, with the number of new coins halved in every 4 years. This is in direct contrast to fiat whose supply could double in just a matter of a few months.

Hydrogen

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Quote from: DaC0nsumeR on September 11, 2021, 02:53:39 PM

Is there any halfway serious, i.e. insightful, fundamental analysis on Bitcoin and the crypto market?

Even a serious discussion here, but specifically taking into account MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT.

It seems like 90% of what you find online is either A) complacent TradFi or B) delusional libertarianism and Austrian fundamentalism.

The federal reserve owns a large majority share of US treasury bonds. Central bank supplied QE is credited with being responsible for more than 90% of US stock market trends since 2008.

Natural market mechanic analysis (macroeconomics) have not applied to markets for many years. Due to central banks expanding balance sheets to own a majority share of bonds and stocks (through investment bank QE).

Its difficult if not impossible to predict what governments or regulators response to cryptocurrencies will be. No one predicted el salvador recognizing bitcoin as legal tender. Its also impossible to predict what the response of hedge funds and whale investors will be. I don't know if anyone predicted or expected the recent high volume of bitcoin purchasing which led to its latest trend near 50k. Bitcoin is usually defined by 4 year boom and bust cycles. A departure from that would not fit its historical profile.

Long story short, I don't think you'll find any good macroeconomic analysis due to the relevant uncertainties and unexpected trends involved. Which lie outside macroeconomic contexts.

palle11

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I don't know if there exist such information . What do you understand by fundamental analysis. In the real word of it , such information is news so you can only monitor a particular company like in stock and forex trade, commodities like metals like gold, silver, copper and more. But bitcoin doesn't have such kind of source to find information and it may be spontaneous. Example Elon musk hyping some projects or institutions dropping or putting out information to adopt cryptocurrency then that can make a bull or bear to the market.

Lucius

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Quote from: DaC0nsumeR on September 11, 2021, 02:53:39 PM

Taking nothing for granted, what is a reasonable forecast for Bitcoin by the year's end?

If I were to focus only on price, then I would personally say that I do not expect the price to go lower than what has repeatedly proved to be a strong point of resistance, and also the price at which it ended last year and started this year ($29 000). The upper limit is much harder to determine, because since the last halving we had a new ATH at about $65k (from $7000), which is almost x10 - and some speculate that this is actually the absolute maximum of this cycle.

Assuming this is not the case, it is not unrealistic to expect that by the end of the year we have another big bull run that could be 50% or 100% of the current price - which coincides with the desire of many to reach $100 000 by the end of this year.

All of this of course depends on a lot of things, because Bitcoin is not isolated in the market, we saw that when it crashed with everything else last year. The overall state of all markets, good or bad news, regulations, and policies, all have their impact on Bitcoin.

paxmao

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I am afraid that you are looking to the wrong kind of analysis. Fundamental analysis is based on organisations that actually make money by means of a value chain. On that sense, the only analysis you can do over bitcoin in a fundamental way would be about the miners and the exchanges.

What I think you mean is macroeconomic analysis? So, you are asking how the current macro context may affect bitcoin and an estimate. I cannot give you a number but during the last year most governments have been printing money like crazy and inflation is already showing it. That´s bullish.

odolvlobo

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The tools typically used for fundamental analysis of stocks and bonds cannot be applied because bitcoins do not generate income.

The best methods I can think of for deriving a value are based on replacing other financial instruments with bitcoins, such as gold and fiat.

For example, Bitcoin can be an effective replacement for gold, so if 100% of the gold in the world (about $10 trillion) is replaced by Bitcoin, then each bitcoin would be worth $476,000.

DaC0nsumeR

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Is there any halfway serious, i.e. insightful, fundamental analysis on Bitcoin and the crypto market?

Even a serious discussion here, but specifically taking into account MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT.

It seems like 90% of what you find online is either A) complacent TradFi or B) delusional libertarianism and Austrian fundamentalism.

Taking nothing for granted, what is a reasonable forecast for Bitcoin by the year's end?

Topic: Serious fundamental analysis / forecast (Read 122 times)