edit:
...centred roughly at the current price
with a bias to slightly lower values in the centre of weight,
but with a more developed tail on the up side
this is a really good model. the normal distribution is a probabilistic representation. i wonder how one would go about calculating the skew?
Skew = (mean - median ) / (standard deviation)
executing that on historical price data would be simple. the question is, is it a functioning indicator? is the height above the peak of the distribution indicative of deviation from a trendline? time-scale matters here as well.