Topic: Shorting BTC !! (sort of) Looking for Bulls! (Read 1908 times)
Use Casascius' escrow tool
One more thing, since this reminds me of Binary Options, I'd also offer you "touch/no touch" binary shorts:
I.e:
If within 1 hour, bitcoin goes down to $90 (or the like), you'd get twice your "bet." If it doesn't, you lose your bet.
Quote
Another common form of binary option that is traded is a touch/no-touch, also called one-touch binary option. In one-touch binary option, if the price of Google's stock (NASDAQ:GOOG) is at $495 and a trader predicts that the stock will "touch" the $500 mark during the trading period he can buy a one-touch option. Once the stock's value "touches" the $500 mark, the trader would immediately earn a 60%–70% gain.
Only in this case it would be 100%.I.e:
If within 1 hour, bitcoin goes down to $90 (or the like), you'd get twice your "bet." If it doesn't, you lose your bet.
I am more than willing to take the bull side since I am searching for leverage. However, the price around which we are betting MUST be the current bid price. Otherwise it is simply not fair. Furthermore, I require either an escrow that we both agree on or you to pay me the BTC (i.e, you trust me), and that if the escrow has fees (obviously I won't charge any) you must pay them. You can in fact trust me, nobody has had any bad experiences with me on this forum. I am willing to do it publicly on this thread so everybody can force me to keep my word. I'm willing to do small amounts over short periods of time at the start to make sure everything is crystal clear and you expose yourself to minimal risk should you choose.
Post here (on this thread, so everyone can see) if you are interested.
EDIT: I'd rather take the short term one TBH, especially since thats what you posted first. More fun if we don't have to wait days and days. Also, you would have to trust me/the escrow for a shorter period of time.
Post here (on this thread, so everyone can see) if you are interested.
EDIT: I'd rather take the short term one TBH, especially since thats what you posted first. More fun if we don't have to wait days and days. Also, you would have to trust me/the escrow for a shorter period of time.
IF
A=1000 hours
B=100
X=1
Y=?
Also I do not have a solution to the payment problem. Escrow? Something else?
A=1000 hours
B=100
X=1
Y=?
Also I do not have a solution to the payment problem. Escrow? Something else?
I had tried bitfinex. But they crash once every hour or so. I like to have some control over my money.
I have been on BitFinex consistently for the past week or so loaning BTC to bears like you. It has been up the whole time. The site is actually easier for me to connect to than MtGox.
Maybe the site is closer to me in Afghanistan than MtGox.
I just wanted to say that using MtGox as a ticker isn't the most accurate, I recommend BitStamp.
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.
No deals, waiting for the long term one....
LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls
A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.
buy low and sell high. learn how to do that and you can just day trade like the rest of us, without stealing people's money for nothing
buy low sell high means being bullish and then wait.
I want to profit from the bearish market.
That is my perception, now. Maybe later I will change into a bull.
But for sure I won't put labels on people for nothing than just trying to set some deals.
buy low and sell high. learn how to do that and you can just day trade like the rest of us, without stealing people's money for nothing
The Great Random Walk Theory
What do you say, if the price would be a simple random walk what would be the odds to go to 200 (or to be precise 186=2 x present price) from now?
What about going all the way to 0?
Is it equivalent?
What do you say, if the price would be a simple random walk what would be the odds to go to 200 (or to be precise 186=2 x present price) from now?
What about going all the way to 0?
Is it equivalent?
No one is going to take your ridiculous bet.
which of them?
come with an offer!
give me an idea how to keep the waged BTC safe until the end of bet!
No one is going to take your ridiculous bet.
To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Alright.
A=24
B=100
X=2.5
Y=1
Interested?
is it sarcasm or misunderstanding?
You people are talking about these "walls" of limit orders (hear that! 30k BTC!) like they were Great Walls of China. Standing for centuries.
It is far more dynamic then that. I presume you know that most of the "action" comes from market orders that you do not see. And from cancelled limit orders and moved to the market.
But I will think about a bet for you, with better odds for you.
Still we have the trust problem.
Any ideas?
To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Alright.
A=24
B=100
X=2.5
Y=1
Interested?
is it sarcasm or misunderstanding?
Looking for a good escrow !!
I almost forgot this detail.
You know, although senile, I am a "Junior". And I may meet some other juniors.
I do not want to be sorry.
Or if know other ways of keeping the trust for the bet until finished....
I almost forgot this detail.
You know, although senile, I am a "Junior". And I may meet some other juniors.
I do not want to be sorry.
Or if know other ways of keeping the trust for the bet until finished....
Willing to take bear part of
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.2
(well actually X=0.5, Y=0.6)
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.2
(well actually X=0.5, Y=0.6)
if you are a bear and want to "take" my bulls at least start your own playground. do not spam here.
To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Alright.
A=24
B=100
X=2.5
Y=1
Interested?
is it sarcasm or misunderstanding?
Willing to take bear part of
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.2
(well actually X=0.5, Y=0.6)
EDIT: Offer valid for one hour from now.
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.2
(well actually X=0.5, Y=0.6)
EDIT: Offer valid for one hour from now.
To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Alright.
A=24
B=100
X=2.5
Y=1
Interested?
To be honest I believe in Technical Analysis.
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Trends, Support, Resistance, Waves.
And my Technical Analysis methods show a strong Resistance in 100.
I do not know anything about current price level. 91.55?
92.11? 93? etc.
I do not care about 90 something. It is not important.
I was just emphasizing how close we are to my threshold.
100
Short term Bet for Short term bulls
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.
LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls
A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.
LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls
A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the STARTING MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.
I have the same conditions even if the price is higher than 100.
You can accuse me of scamming if I lose the bet and do not pay the previously agree sum.
Right now you are just talking to yourself.
You can accuse me of scamming if I lose the bet and do not pay the previously agree sum.
Right now you are just talking to yourself.
The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action.Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
Yeah right!
I am so bull that I LOSE the bet in almost all cases IF the price is bigger than now.
I win only if the price stays between present price=92.30 and 100.
And of course I Win if the price is LOWER than now (which is my bearish expectation)
That screams a lack of confidence in the price going down. If you were a true bear, you would take a 1:1 bet that the price would be below the current price in 40 days, not the crap you're trying to peddle here.
Short term Bet for Short term bulls
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Open offer for 1 hour.
LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls
A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Open offer for 48 hours.
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Open offer for 1 hour.
LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls
A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Open offer for 48 hours.
Still a horrible bet. You need to offer BETTER than even odds.
Everyone, this guy is trying to scam you. DO NOT take these bets!
Short term Bet for Short term bulls
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.
LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls
A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=1.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting for 1 hour.
LONG term Bet for LONG term bulls
A=1000
B=100
X=1
Y=2.8
I will accept this bet without taking into consideration the MtGox price, higher or lower than 100.
Waiting 48 hours.
The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action.Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
Yeah right!
I am so bull that I LOSE the bet in almost all cases IF the price is bigger than now.
I win only if the price stays between present price=92.30 and 100.
And of course I Win if the price is LOWER than now (which is my bearish expectation)
Just because most of us have invested in bitcoins, doesn't mean we are idiots.
Can you see something here?
The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
Given those odds, you are a bull. If you believe that there's a 50% chance the price will be less than 100 in 40 days, appropriate odds for you would be closer to 1:1. The fact you need 5.5:1 odds in order to make a bet that the price will be anywhere from worthless to a little bit up shows you either think it's very likely the price will rise, or you aren't serious about actually attracting any action. Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
Your odd are still horrible.
Try this:
A=100
B=91
X=1
Y=1
Someone might take you up on that. If you are determined to use B=100, try:
A=100
B=100
X=6
Y=1
Someone might take you up on that too.
Just because most of us have invested in bitcoins, doesn't mean we are idiots.
The Bull:
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
Buying BTC now with the hope the price will be HIGHER later.
That's the definition, right?
So, until now I could not get any bull to post here.
At least not a short term bull. Is it a bear market?
Then I may become a bull myself
What about this bet:
A=1000 (about 40 days)
B=100
X=1
Y=5.5
I agree I was out of line with 1:6 odds
I had tried bitfinex. But they crash once every hour or so. I like to have some control over my money.
There are some 31.5K BTC to just get to 100 right now. Whereas for you to win your bet you need only 31.499K BTC or less traction to be made against that wall.
As the other poster already said, only a moron would take this bet at present odds.
Even at 1:1 the bear bet would be the safe and smart bet.
As the other poster already said, only a moron would take this bet at present odds.
Even at 1:1 the bear bet would be the safe and smart bet.
So what kind of odds would an Intelligent Bull Human Being would accept?
If your answer is 6:1 then you are wrong.
If your answer is 6:1 then you are wrong.
Your number "B" is HIGHER than the current price. If you are neither a bull nor a bear and consider bitcoin to be a random walk (and with this volatility in a 24 period it is!), then you have a 50/50 chance of it being higher (or lower). Since B is higher than the current price, you need to offer better than even odds and you have offered way way worse.
Why don't you short on bitfinex? Borrow BTC, sell them, price goes down, buy back, close position.
So what kind of odds would an Intelligent Bull Human Being would accept?
If your answer is 6:1 then you are wrong.
If your answer is 6:1 then you are wrong.
wow, only an idiot would take your bet.
Yes, indeed.
As I was saying, right now the price is 92.
Are you interested?
As I was saying, right now the price is 92.
Are you interested?
Nice odds you gave yourself there...
I have some reasons to be a bit bearish about BTC price. But all the present "shorting" mechanisms do not really please me.
So I was thinking of something else:
Betting on Mtgox BTC price on this forum.
For example I bet that after exactly A hours from now the BTC price at Mtgox will be equal or less than B USD.
And I am giving odds of X:Y
To be crystal clear:
I bet X BTC saying that after exactly A hours the MTGox BTC price will be less or equal to B $
and the Bull bets Y BTC saying that after exactly A hours the MTGox BTC price will be higher than B $.
After exactly A h the winner takes the total X+Y BTC.
First bet would be:
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=6
What do you say?
Current price at Mtgox is around 91.
7/6 is almost 17% return.
Edited
Yeah right!
Read along! Just tuning.
Don't take this numbers seriously!
True offers will come
So I was thinking of something else:
Betting on Mtgox BTC price on this forum.
For example I bet that after exactly A hours from now the BTC price at Mtgox will be equal or less than B USD.
And I am giving odds of X:Y
To be crystal clear:
I bet X BTC saying that after exactly A hours the MTGox BTC price will be less or equal to B $
and the Bull bets Y BTC saying that after exactly A hours the MTGox BTC price will be higher than B $.
After exactly A h the winner takes the total X+Y BTC.
First bet would be:
A=24
B=100
X=1
Y=6
What do you say?
Current price at Mtgox is around 91.
7/6 is almost 17% return.
Edited
Yeah right!
Read along! Just tuning.
Don't take this numbers seriously!
True offers will come
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