I liked the general outline but some of your points are overreaching. For example:
- There are always something terrible happening to centralized services, whether by getting hacked or simply going bankrupt because of having a stupid business model. It is not specific to a certain period in the bitcoin market. The way it is used is different though, during a downtrend it will be portrayed as the end of the world and during an uptrend it is largely ignored and forgotten.
- There are always idiots on the internet who are bashing bitcoin regardless of what trend it is on. Like negative statements from Buffet during the 2017 rise.
- There are always shitcoins that are being pumped and dumped in all bitcoin market situations. ie. the EOS thing you mentioned near the end is nothing special. Same as NFT, DeFi, etc. even though the "hype" part of them thrives better during bitcoin bull markets compared to bear markets.
Topic: SIGNAL OF AN UPTREND SEASON!! (Read 131 times)
The way to identify the money coming back is a very important and difficult thing to realize, but if we can identify it, we will have a very nice position and an extremely good profit, so to receive the cash flow, we usually You will see the following signs.
Mostly you have to look at 6-18 months ahead and ask yourself a question what type of news we will read that day because market is never pricing current day. Retails do financial decision based on today news. They are always wrong.
just like we've seen it last years:
2020 - broken supply chains, covid - Retail sell at the bottom based on current news, how bad it is for economy. Smart money see money printing acceleration combined with production limitations and knows that we will have inflation spike 2 years later. Everything pumps
2021 - inflation spike. Retail buys the top of gold, the top of stocks and the top of bitcoin to find a "inflation hedge" to save their savings. Smart money knows that everything is cyclical and after inflation spike there will be disinflation (among others thanks bullwhip effect) and most likely a recession.
2022 - retails scared of recession sell at big loss waiting for FED pivot to buy back - printing will save asset they think. Smart money buys the dip right after news from big companies about redundancies
2023 - retails buys FED pivot - smart money sells the news.
Treating the amount of negative news as an indicator of the bottom can be good only if the future in the perspective of 0.5-1.5 year is not gonna be worse.
The way to identify the money coming back is a very important and difficult thing to realize, but if we can identify it, we will have a very nice position and an extremely good profit, so to receive the cash flow, we usually You will see the following signs.
Signs About News
1. The first stage
Signs About News
1. The first stage
- This is the first stage of preparing the position of the shark, so the news is extremely bad so this stage is almost only the shark, the creator knows exactly how it will happen.
- Almost this stage is the stage of the psychological game, so this stage will torment retail investors.
- There will be extremely bad news to shake off one last phase to prepare for the new bull run season to take place.
- There are many fud hacks of tens of millions of dollars or even hundreds of millions of dollars that are believed to be caused by hackers, but the fact that sometimes devs hack their own projects is also questionable.
- A series of large and small crypto exchanges went bankrupt or even went bankrupt.
- This period is a period of testing faith and psychology, so the news will be very bad. Bad news is pumped out by sharks to cause depression and loss of confidence for the crowd in the market.
- Besides, the situation of macro and economic news is very bad such as the Fed raising interest rates, BTC has not experienced an economic crisis, so this time will be very different.
- Most inexperienced KOLs will say that the market is going to be very bad or they are hired by sharks who say that the market is very bad.
- Some KOLs “reverse signal” that BTC is extremely bad should sell all BTC to avoid further losses.
- Sharks and bookies when they have enough goods, they will start pumping good news again.
2. Middle stage
This can be said to be the period of doubt because the crowd thinks they are too late to join, now they see the price line is extremely high so they don't dare to enter, but the price is still increasing continuously.- The press started talking about the return of BTC and crypto but not much because sentiment remains doubtful because of the price increase.
- The economic situation started to improve. The economies of other countries and especially the US financial situation started to turn green again, and economic stimulus packages began to be launched.
- Sharks start to spread news to inject retail investors' minds with news or price lines to entice retail investors with new technology concepts such as Defi, NFT, Web3 sound very futuristic, right?
- There will be a clear separation between trends as the world splits into two halves as KOLs on one side will say continue to rise and the other side will say a bulltrap retracement.
- At this time, the price line and news start to go against each other to distract inexperienced retail investors.
- IDO, Launchad, Launchpad bets will xx dozens of times to attract new people.
- Create trends to attract cash flow like move to earn, play to earn
3. Final Stage
This is the last stage and also the most interesting period when retail investors are continuously buying and the house is constantly selling, this is the last stage to take profits from the shark's bulltrap.- Teachers on social networking sites such as tiktok, facebook went online to 'cry' about their analytical ability because of the uptrend, saying that every child ate and started opening a chicken-raising course with increasingly expensive prices with the same sentence. philosophy "expensive cut into pieces" still have a piece of bad luck.
- Those who previously talked about crypto in the downtrend disappeared until now, then returned to the market.
- Social networking sites, people outside the financial industry, newbies who don't know anything start talking about BTC, crypto and this and that, even the woman selling fish in the market or the taxi driver also talks about BTC.
- The groups of bets are getting more and more crowded.
- Constantly seeing new entrants start showing off their profits, showing off their house achievements even though they don't understand anything about crypto.
- Many projects, whether multi-level or not multi-level, are constantly springing up like mushrooms to attract new chickens.
- Famous KOLs will constantly tweet about the potential of the market, the future of this crypto-finance industry.
- The press is constantly talking about BTC at home, everyone is talking about it, the press is praising crypto as the future of this technology and that technology because it may partly be news pumped out by sharks to seduce new chickens. enter the market when they are ready to exit.
- Some "spiritual" factors such as XRP, EOS, LTC fly, then the market will drop right after that, you may not know that before EOS peaked at ATH in May last year, BTC a few days later fell. down to 30k.
- Shitcoins, Memecoins will usually fly at the end of the season so if there is this sign then be careful because lowcap shitcoins are usually speculative money so experienced traders in the crypto market often speculate at this stage because they out of stock already.
- Many projects, whether multi-level or not multi-level, are constantly springing up like mushrooms to attract new chickens.
- Some KOLs “reverse signal” that BTC is extremely bad should sell all BTC to avoid further losses.
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