Topic: Silver shot up. (Read 5926 times)

and bet payout might be too high in value to honor it

I completely forgot about this thread, but a calendar entry reminded me to come back to this thread and laugh. I suppose the $26 low in 2011 was sort of close to $10, right?

Always keep the paper/physical (derivative/underlying) difference in perspective. If you're saying $10, you mean paper - not real silver.

In 3 years time.....that'll be around QE23 , be sure to pick your wheel barrows up early, before the mad rush.

I hope this forum is still here in 3 years when Silver is worth at least $150 an ounce and we all point and laugh 

Wait just a little bit and you will see my prediction to come true

  cheers that's the funniest thing I've heard all day , nearly spilt my coffee



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tj2s6vzErqY&feature=youtube_gdata_player

This has got o be one of the best things I've read on here in a while, very well said! 

I have 20 Bitcoin that says silver never drops under $10 an ounce in the next ten years.

Why you guys still value things in a currency that is quickly losing status as the world's reserve currency is beyond me... in the 1970s when gold topped $100/ounce everyone thought it was in some super huge bubble and was sure to fall back under $100. Then it passed $200, $300, $400 and they still thought it was going to fall down under $200 "at some point". Well, it did, in 1999 over 20 years later. It was only after it passed $600/ounce that people realized just how horrible Nixon and Carter had screwed up the economy, things that people are realizing about Bush/Obama now.

Too late.

Looks like the dip is over for both Silver and gold this afternoon, the Asian markets are buying like crazy.

I'm waiting until tomorrow to confirm $40 is a hold price, but if the price carries on rising again it's time to BUY BUY BUY.

That's my understanding as well. It is hard to tell whether they'll decouple within the next year, and they are your Bitcoins, so fair enough.

The Kitco charts, as far as I know, represent the physical market.  Currently, the physical and paper markets are pretty tightly coupled, so they are essentially the same, not counting premiums.  If the markets decouple, I expect that chart to rise with the physical.  If I'm wrong, and the chart shows a low price while the premium for physical skyrockets, I'm willing to lose the 10 BTC on a technicality.

Is there going to be a distinction between paper silver and physical silver, with SLV and futures or anything leveraged being paper?

Stockcharts is an excellent source.

Otherwise, GoldMoney also has an excellent silver chart.

A lot of other sources rely on Kitco's data feed.

Oh, nice image kjj - I doubt many would know what language that is.

I would be willing to make that bet at 10 BTC.  I propose these terms:

If NY spot silver closes below $20.00 on any day between now and August 25th, 2013, I will pay you 10 BTC.  If it doesn't close below $20.00 on or before that date, you will pay me 10 BTC.  The official data source will be the chart labelled "24 Hour Spot Silver (Bid)" on this page.  In the unlikely event that Kitco isn't around for the duration, or makes changes to that page or chart, we both agree to make a good faith effort to find a new official data source, and if that effort fails, the bet will be voided.

Indeed it can and has, but you'd be extremely foolish to assume that it won't bounce right back up again and continue on the steady upward path it's been treading for the past 1000 years.

The great thing about the Silver ratio is that even in a downtrend the ratio still narrows, so that when we come out of the downtrend and back into the uptrend you're stronger than ever.

Well fair enough, although you haven't said what that prediction is based on. I assume you're just guessing.

I predict $30 as the absolute minimum price for the next 5 years at least, with $80 as the top price. This is based on historic and projected demand vs. global capacity to supply.

Has anyone even mentioned that silver futures are in backwardation? You'd be silly to miss it.

The thing about ratios is there's a numerator and a denominator.  We could return to those ratios without silver moving substantially to the upside.  The price of gold would just have to come down.  And as you can see over the last two days, that can happen rather quickly.

Correct. I predict it will fall to below 10$. If you buy at 30$ you will catch the falling knife.

If you aren't aware of the GLD Puke Indicator, it's been extremely accurate in determining the lows. If I had been aware of this in 2008, I'd be a billionaire right now.

Source information.

Yes, but gold is the prime monetary metal. Hold some of each, even if it's a fraction of an ounce in gold.

Sounds good. I was thinking about picking up a few bars of silver in the near future, maybe 5 months down the road from now.

Wait what, it has fallen below 10$ in the next 1-3 years??

You're mixing past tense and future tense in the same sentence there bud.

If you're trying to say you predict it will fall below $10 in the next 3 years then I guess I can't argue, since none of us have a crystal ball which can look into the future...

However, with Fiat currency devaluing every single day, the amount of Silver in the world being finite and the cost of mining always on the increase, I can't really see it happening. If anything silver is very cheap at $40 and an absolute steal at $30.

Hang on to see where today's dip ends up and then buy buy buy!!

Absolutely.

And the timing couldn't be more perfect, prices are on a little tumble today and may carry on falling through the week, so you can pick up a bargain at the bottom and laugh your ass off at the top.

I think too many investors simply could not resist that magical $1900 mark for Gold yesterday and sold like crazy, triggering a big sell-off on both Gold and silver.

As I said before, the two prices seem to be very much linked at the moment which is a very interesting development indeed.

Yes. Buying silver is a great idea, when it has fallen below 10$ in the next 1-3 years.

So, sounds like we should start buying and holding onto that silver for a few years, aye?

I'll second that.

The GSR is one of the easiest long-term trades to work, if you can sit tight and let it run; and is that ratio ever at a wall right now...

^ my man. right on.

Silver isn't ready to crash, in fact quite the opposite. Silver is under bought, and recently something historic happened.

Look at the shape of the Silver price compared to the Gold price over the past few weeks. Pretty similar huh? Now look at the Silver price compared to the Gold price over the past 6 months. Not similar at all right?

In the past, Silver has risen and fallen with stocks, and was being traded like one. It is now seen by investors as a proper precious metal commodity. Welcome to Gold 2.0!

Here's the interesting part: Silver as a commodity "should" be trading at a ratio of roughly 10:1 to the price of Gold, given global conditions of supply and demand. However, since the Silver price has been destroyed recently along with stock prices, it is currently around 40:1.

Now that Silver is being treated like a precious metal and not a stock, most serious investors expect the price to come up to between 20:1 and 15:1 in the next 2-3 years and then slowly slowly make its way to 10:1, a short term gain of 100 to 200 percent and a long term gain of 400!

Yes; yes; only if it can't be traded for food.

[/quote]
It's because of two effects:

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.

When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.
[/quote]

Isn't silver better than fiat in times of distress? Aren't precious metals supposed to be a safe heaven for people during crisis?

Silver and gold are "precious" for thousands of years. What if a new kind of crisis would come? Would their prices plummet to earth?

ok. I fully understand. no worries

Actually no. I think I have 0.21btc. Not worth the effort.

So, put your money where your mouth is. What about betting 10 BTC or 50 BTC. I am sure you have at least 10 BTC, or 50 BTC.

I'd bet a million bitcoins silver wont go below $20 in the next two years but I don't have a million bitcoins.

I don't know why people say the fundamentals are bearish for silver. Seems to me that silver is too cheap and their are some supply issues as a result. There is backwardation in the futures markets which suggests that those who would purchase silver futures contracts are now being hesitant because of worries about defaults. Too many futures contracts, too little silver?

Silver has industrial use in high tech applications which show promise on the industrial demand side. Many uses are in the growing high tech markets like such as with solar panels. It's a very useful metal and I'm sure there are many new uses for it to come.

And investors see silver as a hedge against inflation, similar to gold.

Where are the issues with the fundamentals?

Deal. I bet with you 1 BTC.

lol shit ill bet a bitcoin that by the end of the two years it will double! 1000% in 10 years doesnt lie man. also. crack pipes kill. jaaay kaaaay

Does silver correlate with the industry or with gold lately?

I regard SILVER as the exit from EUR and USD

Below 10$? Do I smell another bet? I bet 1 BTC silver won't go below 20$ in the next 2 years!  

According to technical analysis, perhaps. What about fundamentals? S3052 - correct me if I'm wrong but your analysis that suggests gold will drop below $1500 seems to be based on price chart indicators. Price action and analysis thereof can be deceptive; precious metals are not equities.

As can be seen below, the usual big short-sellers that include the bullion banks (JP Morgan, et al.) have been throwing everything at the precious metals, yet gold continues to move higher. How much pain they can endure remains to be seen but the more capital flows into gold and overwhelms the selling, the greater the likelihood of an enormous bout of short-covering.



Of further note, volume has been decreasing while physical gold demand has been rising. That can be interpreted as the commercials' refusal to supply large quantities of selling volume. If the buying does not abate, there will be additional margin increases or government interventions attempting to stymie demand; otherwise, uncontrollable price rise continues.

Also, should the dollar remain at its current valuation or even increase, interest rates must rise as well because return expectations are pressuring the rates into negative return territory. The deflation you expect would occur then. In other words, QE3 is imminent unless Obama suddenly grew a spine. The USD will drop below .72 as Jim Sinclair has suggested for many years.

Silver is experiencing the same conditions as above, only with a delayed inflow of capital. Just as large sellers can hit the precious metals in sequence to drag the others down, capital inflow into the main PM stalwart (gold) eventually attracts flow into silver (more so than others) which slingshots the relative gold increase (being a smaller market and more volatile based on large capital shifts). This is plain to see by tracking the gold-silver ratio, volume and open interest alongside price.

What we are witnessing here is almost guaranteed to be yet another case of a pump & dump in the PMs, just at a much grander scale. First, demand must taper off; with it increasing, that point can only be significantly higher than the current price level. The USD will certainly experience a rally and gold will definitely be hit hard, but from a much lower USD and a much higher gold price than at present.

Again, look at more than price action; the world is not made up squiggly lines on charts.

You scaremongers are cute when you're desperate.   

hurrdurr silver is only a industrial metal and will crash.... I hear it every time, nevermind the long-term trend 

Agree with your theory that exactly this will happen. But before, a significant precious metal correction and dollar rally is due. Watch USDCHF as leading currency indicator. It is up 10% from the low 10d ago. As long as USDCHF is above this 0.7062 $  low, a big rally of the USD is likely.

It has been true until now that when there has been a downturn investors have cashed out into dollars. But at some point it might not be the case and investors could start cashing out into precious metals. Im always checking the price of gold and silver when the stock markets crash. If they keep going in opposite directions it means the dollar is fucked. I dont think it will happen now, but its very possible at some point during this crisis.

I didn't say to buy thorium. It seems very abundant compared to the energy it contains. The bigger reserves are in australia, us, india and then china if I remember it well. You should buy rare earth miners in those countries if you want to get the thorium.

EDIT: By the way, thorium is far more clean than uranium and its by-products (unlike plutonium) aren't suitable for war. That's why the plutonium way was researched first.

Hehe, forgot to mention, but you seem to have hit the nail on the head with regard to the swiss franc last time we talked.

Problem with gold is we don't know how long to wait for the correction, and I'm already in with bitcoin, so that leaves me wondering where the safe haven is, not to mention growth for the future. I've been reading up on REE's, and I think there is a future there, just this becomes less certain should there be a fall in industrial output.

The ethics of Uranium could be questioned, as depleted uranium is a byproduct of peaceful production for power, but then again I wouldn't be dying to get in to it myself, same goes for oil, sadly gold doesn't have clean hand's either, but it's not as bad.

Suppose in that light, bitcoin is pretty fuckin awesome, tho the first bitcoin war will change this :p

Thorium. Interesting. Where and how do you buy Thorium?

I think rare earth miners will rise much in the long term, when nuclear energy based on thorium becomes a reality.
Uranium is needed to initiate the chain reaction, so it may rise too, and probably is very cheap today because of the japanese disaster.
See this video:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3rL08J7fDA

He says that thorium is largely produced as a by-product of rare earths but there's no demand for it.

The only 3 metals I am bullish is
1) physical Gold which one should own for sure now (i.e. 20%), and buy more i.e when the big correction comes (Gold is probably topping in the next 2 weeks)
2) Uranium (but this is in my p.o.v unethical as it is related to wars, so I dont do it) EDIT: Also Uranium may have further room to the downside until it gets really nasty in the global economy
3) Bitcoins :-) when it is on a metal USB stick :-)

http://www.39newamerica.com

Just to ask, what metals are you bullish on? Also have you looked at rare earths?

I don't know if it's even possible, but you probably know it.
Could the fed buy silver and gold short positions from commercial banks?
Can the fed buy crazy derivatives to save the investors it wants?
I mean, doesn't JP morgan has a planned exit?

sorry. to the guy who thinks silver will collapse..... uhhhh.... k lets step back a bit. so your saying the economy will collapse (we are just going to use the US even though if the US collapses the world does) there are 300,000,000 americans roughly who have a currency which is worth next to zero. of those 300,000,000 americans 299,999,999 (obviously a joke but still) are idiots who cant take care of themselves. All those idiots know that since the begining of time silver and gold has been used as trading currency. ALL OF THOSE PEOPLE will hoard all the silver and gold they can and use it to trade. Because they know its valuable. Kind of like the bitcoin it cant be counterfeit.  Then supply and demmand kicks in.... and BOOOM! that shit skyrockets. So you are absolutely 100% off your rocker if you think that silver is going to plumet. All the smartest people in the world can tell everyone that silver and gold arent a good investment. But IF the economy crashes like you say it wont matter.

Dont lynch me for this. But what this guy is saying is definitely something to at least keep into account. I personally think we are screwed, but I don't think that we are finished. Its going to get crazy regardless, best case scenario is a depression, no recession, depression. The govt cant bail us out this time. Buy all the hard solid in your actually hand precious metals you can. And bitcoins of course.

http://www.39newamerica.com

It's because of two effects:

1) The global economy is tanking and will crash really hard, into the biggest crash in the past 250 years, which means this will be bigger than 1929. Silver specifically will crash real hard because i) it is used as industrial metal much more than gold, and once industrials turn down even harder, demand for silver will collapse. ii) silver prices have also been largely driven up by speculators , and many of them will run to the exit once the economy gets worse.

2) The charts are supporting the Silver decline. The last 2 months of advance is choppy and is best interpreted by a upward correction, which will be followed by a large decline below 30 $ in a swift move. Secondly, Silver is underperforming Gold, which is a leading indicator for most of the financial markets. The Silver / Gold ratio is down hard since spring 2011.

When would I be wrong?
Only if Silver makes a new high above 50$. But even if this happens, the crash is just postponed and Silver prices will eventually come back below 10 $ in the next 2-5 years.

Physical only during times such as these - this isn't the time to be trading, but securing metal as insurance.

A few companies are starting to pay dividends in-kind (metal payout instead of dollars), but that isn't liquid. Besides, there are very troubling implications for what might be coming soon. The conditions are strained to a point of possible breakdown, but I think there might be enough tricks up the Fed's sleeve to keep the game going for another year or so.

If you still want to play options buy long-dated, far out-of-the-money calls. Avoid puts until gold is over $2000 and silver has decisively broken $50. Dollar cost average; scale in and out.

Dia duit a mhac!

I can see where you're coming from, I'd personally argue that the US downgrade is the singular point that has initialized the panic. Take it in the context of post WWII history, the post war boom was the penultimate boom of technology and improved productivity after the lean years of the war, we still see it's legacy today in how we live with mass production, and infrastructure. Here in England, I still charge up and down the motorways and dual carriage ways built over half a century ago, much of the systematic structures empowered by that period are still in existence today. Much the same is world order in which we have existed since, organisations such as the UN, WHO, NATO, IMF, World bank etc, and part of that historic legacy was the role of the US as the dominant Military and Economic power supported by her allies. Only up until recently the world existed in a bipolar state of power with the East/West divide, and only now are the realities of Multipolar global power being felt with the assent of China, India, Asia in general and an empowered South America to boot.

Now look at the state of the old order:
Europe is in a web of debt with it's premier economies faltering.
America is now dealing with the legacy of 2 of it's most costly drawn out wars to date, it's private institutions have further drained it's resources, and it's historical reserves have been drained.

In this context, the downgrade was monumental.........the singular point where the post WWII economic order ended, as significant as the fall of communism! Only this was so subtle, only after the fallout will it be noted.

Just as in Ireland on 30 September 2008, people didn't wake up and notice the effects of the bank guarantee the day after it had been signed, the same is to be said for the 6th August 2011. Welcome to the future, you live in interesting times my friend.

We're only 14 days in...........

Why do you think this will happen? Only because of charting or do you have analize fundamentals as well (not judging just curious)?

We were at just shy of a 150% ROI on our bullion investment (142% to be exact...) we wanted it to push up to an even 150% or better and that's when the last hard down turn happened... We ended up with just under 100% ROI (double our money) in the space of about 8 months... so still not bad overall...

Don't worry, it will turn down hard soon

Yeah I'm a bit disappointed I cashed out a big chunk of my silver bullion a month or two back...

http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/2114/friday-fun

This is the last post from Turd Ferguson

What do you guys think about that ? Could it be the reason of the panic ?

Yes, that is the broad picutre. What you expose has been there for months and things were more or less stable. Im just saying that there is something in particular going on right now that is driving everybody nuts and in panic but I dont know what it is.

Also, the debt is a big problem but its not only the debt. The distortion of the capital structure is stopping the recovery as well. The most dramatic part is probably the people. You have a lot of people that specialized in the construction sector, in my country people stopped studying because they were getting payed a lot in the construction sector. What are these people going to do now that all that demand for construction labour is never going to come back (at least in some decades)? Are they going to go back to study again that they are over 30 and with family and obligations? Are they condemned to low-level paying jobs? Are there so many low-level paying jobs? The situation is dire.

And the sad thing is that there is no magic solutions and the objectives of the solutions being applied are to mantain the status quo at any price, no matter the consquences for the people.


If history is any reference, when the system is so gone, governments and society in general never take the difficult (but correct) decissions and just keep going until everything collapses.

I'm not panicky at all , just dissappointed that I don't have more physical gold and silver reserves. But, I can only blame myself, because I got Austins G&S brochures a year ago, and just never acted!

I've been shorting the broad index's (via put options) for the last three weeks, and have increased my optionsxpress portfolio almost 300%. And in the meantime, I've gone long on the buy-and-hold stock premise a few dyed-in-the-wool companies that I've been looking at for a few seasons, now that they're on sale.

You gotta love the exponential leveraging power of not just options... but put options in particular, as stocks by and large, seem to FALL much quicker than they RISE.  With the ultimate being the VIX and VXX strangles of late.

What I think is going on is what they never taught us in high-school economics, we had to learn the hardway via personal struggles, defaults, humility, and bankruptcies.  If you SPEND more than you MAKE, and then you eventually can only pay the INTEREST on the debts you've accumulated, outside of your 'need to exist' bills; well, eventually, you'll throw your hands up in resignation that doing 'the right thing', while morally satisfying, is practically pointless.  Hence QE2, and our governments continued attempt at 'rectifiying it's household budget' via a CCCS (Consumer Credit Counselling Service) type of arrangement, which again... is just anothe money-making body - a vicious cycle.

I think currently, the nation, is coming to the conclusion that, well, It's time to bit the bullet, and face the cold hard truth --- As a nation, we're overspent, GROSSLY, and holy cow, we can't sweep this under the rug any longer, because, the World has pulled the rug out from under us.

Rambling, rambling, rambling....

o_O

Really? It's been plastered all over the news, Sovereign debt, poor economic data, and the absolute fact that even countries with low sovereign debt are too invested in the dollar such that should the worst be achieved things would really go to shit, and fast! Add to that the proximity to the 2008 financial crisis, the wipeout of gains since, and house of cards that debt has put us on, and the potential energy of a future decline is frightening.

Even if we do achieve some form of recovery out of this corner, debt has been so over extended since the 80's that it would easily take 10 - 20 years just to get us on a steady footing again.

And I'm not even an Austrian gold bug!

There is also the likely scenario that we add some more duct tape and limp on for another few years on the back of tech advancements and emerging markets....who knows what would come of this outcome.

Something funny is going on. It seems nobody says what is happening, but there is something big going on.

ECB is buying gov bonds in record quantities, and it is suspected this time includes spanish and italian bonds.
The Fed is injecting money in the banking system again.
The major stock markets are collapsing.
Gold and silver are shutting up.

I dont know the exact reason for all this panic, but something is happening.

If you dont want the premiums of physical gold or silver (I live more comfortable knowing I own "the thing", and not some claim on it) and are wise enough to distrust SLV and GLD since they dont have what they promise, you could look into miner stocks. Its more risky though.

Be careful with the COMEX contracts as well. The COMEX change their regulations during this crisis and now it does not guarantee the physical, you can be payed back with SLV and GLD.

It's simple see physical gold & silver as an insurance for cases where you cannot use bitcoin.
The only alternative is a contract of at least 1000oz silver or 500oz gold which can be delivered in physical.

There are retail bars but it's not worth the trouble imo.

What's the most economical way to get into Silver?

I've looked @ SLV, but would prefer the tangible bullion; however, I'm not keen on the markup of coins...

So, do you guys have any ideas as to how to most wisely invest in silver?

Gold Bullion and Stocks (GLD) just seem to 'expensive' to get into.  I know, it's suppose to be based on 'percentage' not 'amount' but... if you only have $1000 to invest, you can by 25 pieces of silver, or .8 pieces of gold... through options I've learned about leverage, and miniscule growth times 25, just seems better than moderate growth times .8

Thanks,
CRYPT

This looks like the beginning of a new rally people... 

USD 43.56

http://silverprice.org/

Nice.