Topic: Since we know when Bitcoin will half, saying Bitcoin will go up is nuts! (Read 1495 times)

The influx of new coins will be cut in 1/2... it cannot be baked in.

The price has risen quite a lot recently. I suspect it is manipulated so that the Bitmain's miner can be priced higher.

The halving will not get media attention as much as the price rise. We need price rise before halving.

Time will tell..

they said that it's already priced in the mining department, not absolutely, and it was the true when the diff was still low enough and the price went immediately to 500, the first time

in that case, yes was priced in, not anymore now, we are in the same situation as before, when the diff was lower and the price was 2xx

Even if we see a price increase, who is going to buy at these high prices? I would just wait for the price to drop and then buy. The people trading in Bitcoin, will buy and hoard before the anticipated event, and then dump. This will force the price down. I cannot see why we will have huge price increases to the levels where they were when Willy Bot was doing it's thing last time. ^smile^

If anything will happen, it might be just before the Halving and then I anticipate a price between $600 & $700 at most.

Read again. 

i think you should do more googling then post here!
knowing the halving will occur and knowing the time can affect the price and has affected the price already because of the hype but this doesn't change the fact that after the halving the number of new coins that are being created and dumped will be reduced (lower supply the same demand google this!)

We already know there's only going to be 21 Million Bitcoins ever.  So why even distribute them?  Market has already priced in the bitcoins they haven't even bought yet and miners have already cost-averaged the millions of bitcoins that have yet to be mined for the next hundred years    

Perhaps we might as well price in an 8th of the planet already using bitcoin as well.  Let's go ahead and assume the market cap is already something like $10 Trillion.

I'll sell OP 1 Bitcoin for $400,000 and prove his point for him  

Sounds ridiculous?  well yeah, and it's about as ridiculous as the original post

Demand now isn't different than the demand last year. The difference now is holding in anticipation of a halving pump. That is why the price has risen and held. Comparing bitcoin to a grain drought is a terrible analogy, people actually use and need grain on a mass level. Few give a fuck about bitcoin, and even those who do don't need it.

No, the price does not HAVE to go up, and again basically has already gone up in preparation.

Most of the "going up" has already been done.

I agree, we need to have the supply and demand to be corresponding well. If the demand will remain the same after the halving then we can expect the price of a bitcoin to rise gradually and this will certainly compensate the miners just like it did 4 years back. If this occurs just as planned, then those who invested in bitcoin will also profit and grab a cup of coffee to celebrate; hmm maybe a glass of quality wine

you can't price in less supply.

people can try to hoard the current supply in order to sell later, but the supply is still going to go down so the price will still rise assuming the demand stays the same.     

Maybe for a few weeks/months the actual supply might be the same or higher than it is now, because the people who hoarded will unleash their coins on the market, which will also count as supply, but since their coins are finite, at some point they will run out.

It's like knowing in advance that there will be a drought and grain will be in short supply. You can build a few grain silos and hoard grain to sell later when grain is in shortage and therefore expensive, but eventually you'll run out of grain to sell and there will still be people hungry. Even though you might have stored enough grain for a few months, you won't have enough for a full year, or even multiple years.

Short supply is short supply, and there's no way you can factor in reduced supply.

Your topic seems to contradict what you are saying. When you say bitcoin is going to half; I thought you were referring to the reward of finding a bitcoin block. Also Bitcoin doesn’t just randomly half; if you were referring to the mining reward; the halving happens after four years. If you were referring to the actual bitcoin, how will its actually make the price go up after it’s halved. Please rephrase yourself.

It is the hype that surrounds halving which is expected to push up prices.Halving will get lots of media attention too and that brings more people to bitcoin.This sudden interest in bitcoin also increase its price and hence it's price

people say the halving is already factored in... but the psychology is simple.

imagine in 2015 you were paid $250 a week for doing a 40 hour week job. then this year you got a pay rise to $450 a week...

but you know in a couple months your employer wants to cut your wage in half.

you are not going to say
"thats ok i have enjoyed a few months of nice income"
you are not going to say
"thats ok i will cut back on my costs and downsize my outgoings"

you are however going to try everything you can to stay at your current stature and try everything to get another pay rise to stay at your same income you have become accustom to this year.

even if you boss says that this pay drop has been known about for years. you are not gonna just go back to earning $200+ again.. your outgoings have changed and you have increased your electricity bills since last year. ofcourse your not gonna go back to $200+ again

translating to bitcoin:

last year miner pools had a cost of $200 a coin while the price was $250..
the price jump back to $450 allowed them to make some large profits, and then they expanded their farms to have more rigs and costs.. now its $325~ per bitcoin cost..

they will no silently take it up the ass with half as much income.. they will push the exchange price to ensure they dont lose

It is sure that the current bitcoin price is not sufficient for miners to get profit out of mining so they will definately keep all those mined coins for few weeks after halving till all other speculators and shorters sell all their coins for cheap. After that price will surely go up as supply will be limited by the miners.

Okay if we presume the price of Bitcoin is already adjusted for the upcoming block halving and the market won't be taken by surprise because it's well-known when and what will happen to the trade volume, do you think the miners will be happy with the current price and will they be able to pull in any profit? Because after all the miners will be affected the most by this and not the speculators.

Some argue that the community is ready to advance to a change fee and this event will not surprise Bitcoin enthusiasts. Consequently, the price of Bitcoin will not change, because the only source of fluctuations in the market could be a conflict of expectations or unpredictability.
 Others believe that, due to the fall offers Bitcoin, the price will rise with the growth in demand. What exactly according to all participants in the debate, so it is that the expected event does not lead to a drop in prices Bitcoin.

What a moronic and yet another false claim made by this user. (no surprise)

A chunk of my wealth at any given time is always in BTC.

Yes I like Ethereum obviously and no I don't hold Eth like I hold BTC.  

At least get facts straight before posting - all you do is make the most wild assumptions in almost every post.

No I don't want BTC to go down, I like chatter about technology unlike you who seems to love hating everything and everyone for no apparent reason.

knowing or not knowing doesn't make any change, what really happens matters. and that is all about the supply which will be created at a reduced rate meaning fewer coins will be dumped in the market by the miners. so whether or not we know about halving, the change in supply will cause the change in price not our prediction.

What I found interesting in the Op is question whether planned halving is better than randomized one, because you can't prepare for random occurrence of halving.
I thought a little about it and how about halving was implemented in a semi-random way. What I mean by it: it will be similar to how you can obtain legendary status here on BTT.

For example: what if halving could be happening between block 400.000 and 500.000 (hypothetical) instead of set block 420.000?

So what? Even if people prepare in advance, it doesn't really make a difference. Bitcoin is still going to go up, except perhaps from an earlier stage.

Doesn't make much of a difference to me.

Original poster is an Ethereum shill, look at his post history, so of course he doesn't want BTC going up and imploding Eth in the process.  What's really going to happen:

Halving guide for noobs: Why it's not possible for halving to be priced in now

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/halving-guide-for-noobs-why-its-not-possible-for-halving-to-be-priced-in-now-1428863

Theoretically if people have bought up a lot of coins already and they are going to hold them long-term for investment and not sell them right after the halving we can assume these coins will be out of circulation for a while. So the supply of coins will be decreased both by the halved block reward and people stashing away coins and it makes sense to me that the price is going to rise not due to hyping up but due to real supply and demand mechanics here. But I know there are a lot of 'If's' and the market situation may balance itself out by people selling stashed coins so in the end the price may shoot up slightly and remain stable till the end of the year. I think it's best to wait and see everything else is just speculation right now.

  Can' tell if serious.


Again - halving isn't random - it is predicated and already calculated. (I mean I guess you could have investors/miners who just assume BTC will double in value - sorry it isn't that simple)

But hey I hope BTC does sky rocket - but you better believe the price is already pretty much adjusted.

The fact remains, even if existing adopters are stocking up on coins, there will always be a diminished supply of new coins, and this will increase the price. If the hoarders start selling, it would push down the price. So these things will influence the price.

We will see a hype driven short term speculator rush, just before the Halving and then a return to the the natural price after the Halving event is over. This will not be a long term price increase, because markets tend to work themselves out, after these hyped periods.

We might see a delayed reaction to the Halving later on, when people have to buy new coins and the supply are lower than the higher demand for it.  

It's an interesting question, however, the price will have to go up to compensate the miners for their work.
If the price remains in the actual conditions, some miners will have to shut-down (of course, some of them if not the majority will continue), this could lead to longer confirmation times, if the problem escalates, we could see a death spiral where blocks take longer to confirm, XBT price plummets and mining becomes even less profitable.

OP is right. When an event is known by the market, it is already factored into the price.

(Example: If 12% was a reasonable annual return, and you knew the value of a stock would be $112/share in one year, and its current price was $50, you'd be a fool not to buy it. But if the $112 value was common knowledge, everyone else would be a fool not to buy it too. So everyone would instantly bid up the price of the stock to $100 today, in line with the 12% annual return to $112 in one year.)

The miners can't (significantly) control the price of bitcoin. All they can do is shut down if mining becomes unprofitable. But that has ZERO influence on the price of bitcoin, because exactly the same # of bitcoins are mined whether 100% or 1% of miners are up and running.

At the halving the daily input of new BTC will drop from ~3600 to ~1800. That is enough for a very modest upward pressure, but it will be slight because tens of thousands of coins are exchanged daily already. Other events and general market trends will dwarf the impact of the halving.

Feel free to prove me wrong, though.  

For some, if not many, the reality of a decreased rate of bitcoin entering into the system due to the reward halving won't register until sometime after the actual halving when it hits them smack in the face. These are the people that will panic FOMO buy and cause the price to shoot up.

The reward isn't just halved for one day, it will stay halved long after the actual halving day until the next halving.

We will see something similar to what happened after the last halving when people quickly realized, "Oh shit, the halving is real."

OP you took the words right out of my mouth and I've been saying this for the past few months. It's been priced in.  Any news that doesn't come as a surprise isn't news that will affect a market.  But we'll see.

although you think people have already prepared.. you are thinking from only one perspective. .. people buying now.
every day, week or month. new people will be willing to buy

the thing is, that people are not going to buy now and suddenly no one is going to buy in the future.. there will always be buyers.

secondly. although pools know their bitcoin income is going to half. they are currently used to a $11k a reward (25btc x ~$440) so they will not happily sell their 12.5bitcoin for much less than $10k.

this will cause a supply/demand game. because although you may assume that there are 15.5 bitcoins in circulation. when it comes to exchanges there are only a few thousand coins being held. and its these coins IN exchanges that cause more price variation compared to the millions of coins held OUT of exchanges.

so you will be shocked that a small change in volume on an exchange can cause movements.

based on the maths of lets say antpool. who manage an estimated(1)(2) $325 cost per bitcoin. knowing that when the reward halving happens it will cost them $650/bitcoin we WILL see some price movements occur.

no one can say the exact time it will happen. it could be before the reward halving, or afterwards.. but it will happen,

and there will always be people willing to buy

The halving threads are already creeping up like the XT threads of past and we still got a ways to go.

Hype has always been the king in moving bitcoin value and suspect the 2 weeks before will be crazy in here.

If BTC were to randomly half out of no where - then yeah that would 100% make BTC price go up no doubt!

But since we know well ahead of time when it happens people already prepare.

Some people have already bought days, weeks and months ago in preparation - why do you think BTC has gone up like it did recently?

In that case the only reason BTC would rise significantly AFTER the halving would be from this created hype.

In any case, celebrate! HYPE THAT SHIT!