small price correction after this bullrun

btc78

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

This is the risk of Investing in crypto specially Bitcoin that's Why there is a Word created specifically for this forum that says "HODL" and this support long term holding and not those you mentioned that Buying and selling .

Don't forget that Bitcoin is a currency and not a Asset or anything related, So if you Buy Bitcoin expect to use this in proper way and not just for your profiteering purpose.

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In general terms, the correction is not bad, it is natural and in this particular case in these times it is being very beneficial, in the short term Bitcoin may be oscillating between $ 52k and $ 58k, it is not bad, because there is a lot of incoming volume of negotiation, if we take into account the market we see that it is having a very fast recovery and the main candle is green, as indicated in this article:

Quote

The bulls have pushed the price above the moving averages today and they will now try to challenge the downtrend line and the overhead resistance at $58,966.53. A breakout of this resistance zone will clear the path for a possible retest of the all-time high at $64,849.27.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/price-analysis-5-5-btc-eth-bnb-doge-xrp-ada-dot-ltc-bch-uni

You also have to see the market from the worst-case point of view, which, technical factors indicate that it may be in a bearish scenario that can reach $46k, you cannot put this possible scenario aside, for now caution is the best ally.

STT

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Big recovery over the course of todays action for reasons Im not sure of but buyers came in. Whats clear is the price today and previously is closing very near to the 50 day average and its not certain we have beaten this measure which for most of this year to date has been the lows. Of course a moving average represents a momentum measure and invariably time and price catch up and meet and we have a resolution in some direction, so far Bitcoin has not decided which of the two paths it might take or if we are merely waiting a while before resuming similarly upwards. I always expect something dramatic like a move to the 200 day average which surprises some but on the other hand can also be considered somewhat inevitable, speculators always close out and go home again and we are back to the price that genuine users and long term holders determine and base price vs froth will be lower.
I also find 57374 is a weekly closing price of significance and again we close to that so I'd expect some velocity when crossing the border here in order to properly leave it behind.

nurilham

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It is difficult to predict how far the correction on BTC or altcoins prices after the bullrun. Moreover, this is still ongoing. There will be always a market correction in every rise of the price. But, how dip or how high of the price may not really be predicted.
And here, we may not be panic with that kind of market correction. This is really normal to happen.

Baofeng

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Quote from: tygeade on May 04, 2021, 12:29:01 PM

Quote from: k@suy on May 04, 2021, 08:49:50 AM

As far as I remember the bull run by the end of 2017 was ended as the year 2018 enter like around mid january and the dropped of exchange rate of cryptocoin continued. But what we have encounter in today bull run was a strong resistance of crypto market between a price correction. So small price correction after bull run was inevitable and expected.

Yeah, compared to 2017's bull run, in 2021 we are having less volatile markets as exchanges are showing healthy volume regularly. When more people are participating then obviously we will have steady markets but at the same time, we cannot predict when a whale will start think about manipulating markets for their benefits.

It's because the number of traders grew as well in the current bullish cycle. So we are safe to say that we can't compare the bullish phase we have in 2017 in today's run.

Quote from: tygeade on May 04, 2021, 12:29:01 PM

But, people are predicting less-powered whales in coming days as we are having lots of new investors on board. It means whales and their manipulation may go diminishing over the time which will get stable yet rising bitcoin markets somehow.

Because whales are also getting smarter, they are not going to make a bold move to make some noise in this healthy bull run that we have. They will continue to accumulate, and not going to put their huge money in exchanges.

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Quote from: Fredomago on May 04, 2021, 01:04:48 PM

Quote from: k@suy on May 04, 2021, 08:49:50 AM

Quote from: Kittygalore on May 03, 2021, 12:02:23 AM

The only difference from the 2017-2018 bullrun is that it ended around mid-January and the prices started bobbing up and down at that point. And there are more institutional investors in the 2020-2021 bullrun which means that there is more money being invested in the market.

The bull run during 2017-2018 was too far different from the bull run we have right now starting at the end of the year 2020-up to present. As far as I remember the bull run by the end of 2017 was ended as the year 2018 enter like around mid january and the dropped of exchange rate of cryptocoin continued. But what we have encounter in today bull run was a strong resistance of crypto market between a price correction. So small price correction after bull run was inevitable and expected.

There are lots of institutional investors and those personalities who showed up and start putting their money are bringing more new
players around this market, they are helping this industry in terms of invested money, with more and more to follow that last time
bull market will be forgotten and this new one will attract more people to invest as well.

Though we needed to be more extracareful as with institutional investors they are good in playing with investors emotions, they can shake a little and bring some artificial downfall, always assess before making any move with your assets.

Big players would always be having the advantage in talks of that manipulative aspect on the entire market.So you shouldnt cross out the probabilities of some huge sell off

or some Fud that would be created because this is how those big fellas do play the game for them to benefit out or maximize their potential profits when the community do really mainly react on it.

Always secure out your profits once you had gained but if you do mind for long term then this wont really be that much of an issue.

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Quote from: k@suy on May 04, 2021, 08:49:50 AM

Quote from: Kittygalore on May 03, 2021, 12:02:23 AM

The only difference from the 2017-2018 bullrun is that it ended around mid-January and the prices started bobbing up and down at that point. And there are more institutional investors in the 2020-2021 bullrun which means that there is more money being invested in the market.

The bull run during 2017-2018 was too far different from the bull run we have right now starting at the end of the year 2020-up to present. As far as I remember the bull run by the end of 2017 was ended as the year 2018 enter like around mid january and the dropped of exchange rate of cryptocoin continued. But what we have encounter in today bull run was a strong resistance of crypto market between a price correction. So small price correction after bull run was inevitable and expected.

There are lots of institutional investors and those personalities who showed up and start putting their money are bringing more new
players around this market, they are helping this industry in terms of invested money, with more and more to follow that last time
bull market will be forgotten and this new one will attract more people to invest as well.

Though we needed to be more extracareful as with institutional investors they are good in playing with investors emotions, they can shake a little and bring some artificial downfall, always assess before making any move with your assets.

tygeade

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Quote from: k@suy on May 04, 2021, 08:49:50 AM

As far as I remember the bull run by the end of 2017 was ended as the year 2018 enter like around mid january and the dropped of exchange rate of cryptocoin continued. But what we have encounter in today bull run was a strong resistance of crypto market between a price correction. So small price correction after bull run was inevitable and expected.

Yeah, compared to 2017's bull run, in 2021 we are having less volatile markets as exchanges are showing healthy volume regularly. When more people are participating then obviously we will have steady markets but at the same time, we cannot predict when a whale will start think about manipulating markets for their benefits.

But, people are predicting less-powered whales in coming days as we are having lots of new investors on board. It means whales and their manipulation may go diminishing over the time which will get stable yet rising bitcoin markets somehow.

k@suy

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Quote from: Kittygalore on May 03, 2021, 12:02:23 AM

The only difference from the 2017-2018 bullrun is that it ended around mid-January and the prices started bobbing up and down at that point. And there are more institutional investors in the 2020-2021 bullrun which means that there is more money being invested in the market.

The bull run during 2017-2018 was too far different from the bull run we have right now starting at the end of the year 2020-up to present. As far as I remember the bull run by the end of 2017 was ended as the year 2018 enter like around mid january and the dropped of exchange rate of cryptocoin continued. But what we have encounter in today bull run was a strong resistance of crypto market between a price correction. So small price correction after bull run was inevitable and expected.

jostorres

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Quote from: Twinscoin2017 on May 02, 2021, 09:53:56 PM

2017 bullrun is different from the the present bullrun there are a big difference in price and in market situation, but i believe that there is always a correction, correction is normal so i believe that there will be a correction after this bullrun. I also believe that many people are waiting for that correction to buy some coin to hold for profit.

But honestly I'm not seeing any big differences between 2017 bull run and the current one:
2017's bull run was based on then ATH of $1200.
2021's bull run is based on previous cycle's ATH of $20k.
There might be slight changes in rate of increase on monthly basis but we can ignore that (as we cannot expect exact repeating of bull run).

Moreover, the current bull run is seeming more stronger than what we had in 2017 and 2013 which might mean we are going to see new ATH beyond our speculations. Because, a stronger bull down will lead to stronger FOMO which means higher or high may occur as final ATH.

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Quote from: Twinscoin2017 on May 02, 2021, 09:53:56 PM

2017 bullrun is different from the the present bullrun there are a big difference in price and in market situation, but i believe that there is always a correction, correction is normal so i believe that there will be a correction after this bullrun. I also believe that many people are waiting for that correction to buy some coin to hold for profit.

The only difference from the 2017-2018 bullrun is that it ended around mid-January and the prices started bobbing up and down at that point. And there are more institutional investors in the 2020-2021 bullrun which means that there is more money being invested in the market.

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2017 bullrun is different from the the present bullrun there are a big difference in price and in market situation, but i believe that there is always a correction, correction is normal so i believe that there will be a correction after this bullrun. I also believe that many people are waiting for that correction to buy some coin to hold for profit.

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Quote from: hugeblack on April 11, 2021, 02:23:52 PM

Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

The huge money that was invested was when the price was less than 30 thousand dollars. These investors know what they are doing and when to do so, so they make profit when they want to buy and not sell.
Bitcoin will return to a 50% to 80% correction to ensure that it stabilizes the higher levels of the price.

a scenario like this costs to influence small investors to increase their larger purchasing power. big players will make this issue an opportunity to get a big profit. We must be careful to understand the right thing, so as not to make the wrong decision to buy bitcoin in large quantities.

ice098

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I'm also think something like this one, what happens if the 2017 case is not repeated?? In 2017 institution is not joining, but now is different, Bitcoin stronger than past and so many institutions join with huge money. If they did not sell it what happens?? No huge correction I think

But I have a target and my target at end of this year, I will sell my asset for my real life maybe will huge sell, no matter what happens next I will not regret my decision

For me the essence of history repeat itself doesn't make sense in my own conclusion especially to the bitcoin market today. Small price corrections is inevitable and yet the bull run wasn't end. But the sudden price correction like what happen after the new ATH of bitcoin from $66k to $49k was indeed a big difference and it is alarming because of the gap but then the bitcoin market shows again the step by step moving of market price from $49k and now to $54k. So this shows that bitcoin was stronger than before, much more appreciated today than before.

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

I also notice that the bitcoin bullrun this time is really amazing it looks like after the rising of the pice there is a small correction and price rise back again and it will become higher than the price before correction happened,this was the sign that bitcoin will maybe reach 100k$ at the end o 2021, these was really an amazing bull run.

STT

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Quote from: DeathAngel on April 11, 2021, 01:41:14 PM

You would expect institutional buyers to have stronger hands but who knows.

The big holders wont sell, they will hedge which brings in middle men to trade these contracts for difference and all kinds of varied instruments that pay out on any lower price action. Its happening all the time in stocks and many assets and imo here too is likely; its why its really not feasible to outlaw the idea of short selling because its a natural process similar to insurance perhaps and a short is always a future buy.

We're passing the two day average and the lower section of negative pricing, weekend action is subdued but it could be the stage set for greater moves during the working week where positive action may gain traction or we fail to hold and process further down having confirmed with volume this is not a price area in demand. My main measure is weekly average but we have halted the rate of descent to near stand still.

LUCKMCFLY

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The correction may not be so small, because it is already more than 25% of what many have been expecting, but many believe that investors are buying in the fall, others say that it will continue to fall, and there may be room for speculation that there is investment entering the market and they have entered with massive "Shorts" to buy as cheaply as possible.

Quote

Commenting on that was popular cryptocurrency trader and analyst, Bitcoin Master, who said that “if this is still a dip, bitcoin should be pulling back up really soon, otherwise it is definitely a change in pattern.”

Source: https://cryptopotato.com/fear-and-greed-bitcoin-price-should-spike-up-soon-if-history-repeats-itself/

If this works in that new investors are entering with "Shorts" I think that when they are closed the price of Bitcoin will have a rebound to new ATH.

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Everyone has a guess, speculation, and their own predictions to Bitcoin prices both at bullish and bearish, as well as the market correction price. However, they will never be 100% right or wrong. Because this really hasn't happened.
And related to a market correction, every normal increase requires a market correction to test the rate. However, this certainly depends on the market at that time and also the news related to Bitcoin itself.

And here is our chance not to be panic when there is a market correction. We may lose some money, but if we hold it, we can get higher again after a little bit of holding. But stay, keep watching the market codnition.

chikading2016

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I see bitcoin is now stronger than the past, last bullrun happens in year 2017 and repeat today we are now in bullish season and if we are going to look on the bitcoin price from the last bullrun year 2017 and compair it today we can saw a big difference, I think it is all because bitcoin is now becoming more stronger so i think the price of bitcoin will never drop big digit this time.

magneto

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

I absolutely agree.

Don't expect there to be a huge correction for you to get into the market any time soon. And even when it occurs, it is very likely that you won't even see that big of a dip simply for how strong institutional demand has been.

The difference between institutional demand and retail demand is that the former is less prone to short term irrationality. They trade on algorithms and stringent protocols and are more likely to hold for the long run than to panic sell in a bear market - which has historically been the cause of the -70-90% bear cycles.

LUCKMCFLY

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I think that at the moment a movement is brewing, perhaps it is most likely bullish, because although it is at a price of approximately $55k the trading volume is still high, and that is a good sign, the bull run has its natural corrections, it may be in an eventual short-term build-up to be propelled higher than $60K.

This analysis matches what I think:

Quote

Despite the decline, the long scenario is more likely than a bullish one as the coin is accumulating power at the moment for a rise to the next level at $61,400.

Source: https://u.today/btc-eth-xrp-bnb-and-ada-price-analysis-for-april-21

Of course this is a short-term perspective, which can be invalidated if there is a bearish move, although I see it unlikely.

beerlover

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Quote from: Coin_trader on April 21, 2021, 06:53:37 AM

Quote from: Desmong on April 20, 2021, 04:42:23 PM

The problem is nobody knows what is going to happen next that's why we'll have to be smart in determining the market direction. The market makers might choose to do it thing without considering the reaction of her buyers or sellers.

We should not be too greedy with our assets cos with might be seeing it Rosy now and later on turned against us.

This is a fact for small retail investor but not for an institutional investors that holding huge percentage of the token. Crypto market can be manipulated due to the current liquidity volume and to shake off position on the future trading. This is the number one problem of crypto, the price can be easily overturn by some news or events due to unregulated exchange which producing unverified transactions.

That type of shake happens all the time in order to make countless times more money than normally can. You see a lot of people shorting bitcoin? You buy few hundreds of millions of dollars worth and before that you long bitcoin x100+ leverage and make a ton of money from that increase. You see a lot of longs and borrowers? You sell those coins and drop the price and make money from all the people who longed as well.

Basically you can make money on any direction if you have enough money, the shorters and longers are public information and you can find them if you know where to look at and if they get too much you will have a chance to manipulate the market. Obviously you need to be super rich to do this, but if you have enough money you could make enough money to profit from this. Nobody can say that it will not be difficult, it will be hard, but it can be done if you are rich enough.

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Quote from: mrjoy15 on April 21, 2021, 10:27:48 AM

It's the right momentum to buy Bitcoin, I've got interest to invest but it's like giant to give a bite. Anyway, I'm going shopping even it's just fraction. Somehow, I have feeling panic selling is good for market because it creates opens up more purchase opportunities. But, It also good to watch what the BTC market does. You don't wanna buy before a further downside.

Yeah, not sure how many of us are making use of the current dip; there was FUD which caused this correction but people are still expecting more cheaper prices so that they will enter after that. But, making use of current available prices will be a good decision in my opinion.

I will not be surprised, by tomorrow itself if bitcoin markets again entering into $60k zones. Anything is possible here and waiting too much will be highly recommended; make use of current opportunity and buy more if you get another opportunity.

Rana590

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Actually it is on the way of rising now and price will be increasing very soon. Price dropped little bit but now, price is staring to rise again. This time, the price of bitcoin can hit $70 and it is very possible for it.

mrjoy15

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It's the right momentum to buy Bitcoin, I've got interest to invest but it's like giant to give a bite. Anyway, I'm going shopping even it's just fraction. Somehow, I have feeling panic selling is good for market because it creates opens up more purchase opportunities. But, It also good to watch what the BTC market does. You don't wanna buy before a further downside.

Becky666

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Nothing to be afraid at at the moment becasue institutions have been into the system and they won't just decide to go back to fiats currencies. The fiats currencies aren't doing well at the moment, this should be the hope that after this little correction anything can happen to the general market bullishness. It's time to have or acquire huge alts from the market now too make something good in the bull-run.

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

Probably right and these early sellers will wait for the next bear season to start buying back again. kinda be a safe strategy who are afraid of taking a risk and I think that seems so good to practice if you're not only depending on crypto as your major source of income.
And even me, I'll do the same. We can't ignore the possibility of market dumps and investing this time had no assurance. Buying at $60k, that is really a risky doing and we are not sure if ever it dumps and the next pumps will more than $60k to get a profit? So I suggest investing in Bitcoin only during the market correction or during the bear season, not in a situation that we are at its peak.

STT

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Its trading below the 50 day average, its less positive then it ended last week with so it appears we need to develop further and revise prices. I'd be more confident of a resumption to price rising when back above the 50 day average, I did previously think we had to go back to the 200 day average but Im not sure it will require that or not now. Meanwhile 200 day will risen quite alot so its no longer too much of a negative, 25k would be a large negative to many so thats the outlier outcome I would expect to occur and still be relatively normal in most years as a low

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time.

How we can predict that those institutions and other large-scale adoptions also want to buy back at cheaper price levels?

When individuals will be watching and getting ready for go along with the cycle of bitcoin markets, why not we expect big players also doing the same thing and more importantly they are well-known for catching the opportunities more earlier than others so that they will maximize their benefits and trapping all others?

One thing is very clear: even individuals might adopt bitcoins with the long-term plans whereas most institutions will not be having such plans; they definitely look for quick money.

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Quote from: Desmong on April 20, 2021, 04:42:23 PM

The problem is nobody knows what is going to happen next that's why we'll have to be smart in determining the market direction. The market makers might choose to do it thing without considering the reaction of her buyers or sellers.

We should not be too greedy with our assets cos with might be seeing it Rosy now and later on turned against us.

This is a fact for small retail investor but not for an institutional investors that holding huge percentage of the token. Crypto market can be manipulated due to the current liquidity volume and to shake off position on the future trading. This is the number one problem of crypto, the price can be easily overturn by some news or events due to unregulated exchange which producing unverified transactions.

Oasisman

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

Most probably we won't see that kind of huge percentage of correction or shall we say bearish run at this current rate, especially that huge investors like big companies and institutions are all into Bitcoin. I'm seeing a 50% drop in the future once this bullrun peaked, maybe at the 6 digit figure.
However, If this huge correction isn't recurring anymore then those who sold all their bags will be facing their worst consequences for not hodling long term.
Nevertheless, everything that goes up must go down anyway. So, the possibility for a huge bearish run is always there.

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The problem is nobody knows what is going to happen next that's why we'll have to be smart in determining the market direction. The market makers might choose to do it thing without considering the reaction of her buyers or sellers.

We should not be too greedy with our assets cos with might be seeing it Rosy now and later on turned against us.

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

I'm also think something like this one, what happens if the 2017 case is not repeated?? In 2017 institution is not joining, but now is different, Bitcoin stronger than past and so many institutions join with huge money. If they did not sell it what happens?? No huge correction I think

But I have a target and my target at end of this year, I will sell my asset for my real life maybe will huge sell, no matter what happens next I will not regret my decision

When we do try to compare about adoption level then this isnt something similar that we had seen in the past on where lots of companies and intuitional investors havent been able to jump this market yet

which means that the price movement into the past can be considered out to be a bit of a bubble comparing as of now where you can really see that it has been backed up with something.

Crash is inevitable if all decided to make out some cash out but i doubt that it wont really be happening anytime soon.People and companies do held off for longer terms.

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Quote from: Dannaey on April 14, 2021, 08:36:54 AM

I have a feeling that Bitcoin won't be able to dump again below $40,000. With big companies are now in crypto, I doubt they will just sell off their position just to take a quick profit. For sure they are expecting just like what we are expecting that probably before end of this year we will celebrate big time as Bitcoin will most likely to hit $300,000 to $400,000 or more.

You are right, a small correction will be between $40,000 to $70,000. Let's be positive and just go with the flow.

$ 40,000 is a pretty deep correction price if bitcoin's current price is $ 60k. Some large companies like Tesla and other companies do invest in bitcoin. they will of course defend the price they buy. they will try to keep what they have got. Bitcoin is currently continuing to rise and many predictions say bitcoin will be able to reach the rage price of $ 100k. Hopefully it can come true. everyone expected it.

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You thought like because bitcoin is in a bull run market when everything about correction is small and the chance for bitcoin price up is so confident. But, the market sentiment is not like that, the instutional investor also will be worried when bitcoin is trying to correction. They will not be careless for buy orders at some low price, they will still think about market sentiment as well.

Moreover, in the history bitcoin has met a huge correction after the bull run season. Do you think all bitcoin investor either new investor or old investor didn't think to there? I guess they will be considered it when the correction is happening. So, don't think too much, we still have a chance to having bitcoin although it is price is already high. Bitcoin is not for rich man or instutional investor because we as a retail investor still have a chance to having it.

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Quote from: pooya87 on April 13, 2021, 03:08:52 AM

Quote from: Betwrong on April 12, 2021, 09:09:07 AM

I personally was expecting a correction when we reached $30k+, so now, knowing how wrong I can be, I'd rather agree with you regarding $150k.

~snip~
If you were expecting a correction after reaching $30k we did have it when price reached $34800 and dumped down to $27700 (a 20% correction) but the duration of it was short (about 3 days).
We didn't see any prolonged correction (that usually take 2 weeks to a month) ~

After crossing $30k level bitcoin reached above $40k within a short time (on 7th January). And the price dropped below $30k again at January 22nd. But the price didn't drop continuously, there was too much volatility in between. Though it was a two week cycle and the price change was almost 40%. Which spread a little fear among some holder. But most of the big whales and institutional investors didn't take any panic move. They bought more and more at that time. Finally it showed strong upward rally again at the end of the month.

So I think that there is less chance of happening a bigger and prolong bubble burst like before. Institutional investor wants to grab more btc because bitcoin have limited supply. And everyone realized the importance of it. Maybe this price cycle will repeat, a massive FOMO then a small short term correction, after that a long stability and finally another price rally.

Dannaey

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I have a feeling that Bitcoin won't be able to dump again below $40,000. With big companies are now in crypto, I doubt they will just sell off their position just to take a quick profit. For sure they are expecting just like what we are expecting that probably before end of this year we will celebrate big time as Bitcoin will most likely to hit $300,000 to $400,000 or more.

You are right, a small correction will be between $40,000 to $70,000. Let's be positive and just go with the flow.

bosede1

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If this happens I think there will be a way around it but like you said whoever sells the coin at that time must think twice and decide if you will wait for the dump to buy another or your portfolio is reduced if we think of the only negative effect of the institution joining then that will not be really good.

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

But that's 70-90 % correction is exage mate .

i Think we can see at least maximum of 30% decrease in price after the Maximum value reached this year.

Quote from: Innerpumper on April 13, 2021, 10:16:19 AM

all scnario could have happened, But I think bitcoin had not reached 150k before the correction and became a light bear. I don't know if bitcoin can reach 6 digits within the next 5 years. But all the rich people started paying attention to it.

You don't believe reaching even 100k in the next 5 years? then you should get out of Bitcointalk because you don't even trust How Bitcoin can manage to reached sooner.

Betwrong

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Quote from: pooya87 on April 13, 2021, 03:08:52 AM

Quote from: Betwrong on April 12, 2021, 09:09:07 AM

I personally was expecting a correction when we reached $30k+, so now, knowing how wrong I can be, I'd rather agree with you regarding $150k.

Well the important thing to remember is the difference between a correction and a crash (or bubble burst).
A correction is small in size and in bitcoin world it it usually between 10 to 20% but it can go as high as 30% verging on being a crash.

I was expecting something like this, to be honest. And I thought it could take weeks for going up again, not just 3 days.

Quote from: pooya87 on April 13, 2021, 03:08:52 AM

A bubble burst on the other hand is massive in size and the duration of it is also very big. So far the bubble burst sizes has been around 80% and the duration is at least a year of bear market.

If you were expecting a correction after reaching $30k we did have it when price reached $34800 and dumped down to $27700 (a 20% correction) but the duration of it was short (about 3 days).
We didn't see any prolonged correction (that usually take 2 weeks to a month) because price was stuck below $20k for a very long time and the initial rise was accompanied by a massive FOMO.
We are in a similar situation right now too, price has been stuck in $50k range for nearly 2 months now and it is getting ready for another massive FOMO breakout.

OMG, you were so right! Look at where we are today, we hit a new ATH. I really start thinking that your words, "if price reaches $150k that is NOT a bubble and it is NOT going to dump big if dump at all." can turn out to be true. In any case, it was an amazing analysis.

Ausgewielt

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The bitcoin market become more unpredictable, those institutions who get involved in bitcoin investment are consist of many smart and strategic people. They have big amount of fund to influence the market, I think the best way for me is by following the trend and become more aware of news and fluctuations price. Atleast they positive sentiments to bitcoin market, it means the future of bitcoin holders is brighter.

nicecrypto

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

This could be possible but most of the investors that would be selling then will definitely be doing so on their profits earned that is, their initial invested capital most have been made over and all remaining trading capital would have been profits so, even when this happens, they can continue to consider what ever comes in also as profits even if the price of Bitcoin didn't correct as much as investors would have wanted based on the kind of investors in the current market cycle.

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again.

So you are saying that Bitcoin will just go up and up and up?? I don't think that it will happen at all.
We know that markets are moving in cycles and so is crypto market. 6 digit price of Bitcoin might happen or might not but one thing is for sure, there will be a time that investors, institutions and other holders will take profit causing the market to go down. Corrections in markets are always happening and crypto market isn't an exception. What we just need right now is patience. Patience to wait when will be this huge correction will happen.

Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

Maybe we might say that institutions might cause the market to fall down but not as much as it is last 2017 but it the opposite of it might happen too. Adoption and Institutions might cause the market to fall down by not that much but at least we will see a huge correction in the future

.

kopijos

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

I think the BTC correction will still be offset by an increase, even though your estimation is that when BTC has a high increase and the fear of a large dump will definitely make BTC pump again. Due to the nature of BTC in the market, the pump and dump will always occur at any time and the cycle is bound to happen

rodskee

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

70-90% correction ? Lol are you kidding ? since when that Correction comes down to that level?
yeah there is correction surely to follow but not that exaggeration .

If you are pointing to what happened last year, or even in 2018 , those are not totally correction but "Manipulation"

things that won't happen now because Investors these days are legit , not like the early whales that manipulates and Bag money , now we had Real User and now just buying and selling agenda .

Rehan Zakir

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Yes! You are saying right. Price pumps after a small correction. But overall market trend is bullish that is why Bitcoin price hits ATH 64000$. But everyone is saying that a major correction is very near. So, I am always ready that anytime this correction comes that starts the bearish trend. And after a major correction Bitcoin again pumps.

yazher

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Quote from: Peanutswar on April 12, 2021, 08:46:07 AM

Not all the time the price of the bitcoin comes up to the peak sometimes we experience having a bought and this happens when the price of the bitcoin hype again to the top. I don't think if people today will lose their Bitcoin immediately and as we see there is a lot of speculation about the Bitcoin price.
Some say bitcoin will reach 80k.. Some say 100k++ and someone says it can exceed more than this so a strong hand will get the profit in the end. Now we can't see any bad news about bitcoin and it's a good sign for another bull run.

So far the price is going strong and those holders are surely looking at the market carefully especially those who don't have a plan for long-term investments. They might be just one step away to sold their bitcoins because of the situation they will about to witness. Because when those big-time investors start to sell their bitcoins simultaneously, it will be like beads on a rope. When the rope is cut, they fall out one after another. What I mean by this is when the price started to fell off, it will be like a landslide.

TravelMug

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

Then don't sell, look for the long term scenario, yes we might hit $300k max, but we can go even higher let's say in the next halving. So for those who are thinking of selling, then you have to calibrate your goals if we ever reach 6 digits.

Not a good time to be a bear, specially that bitcoin's narrative has changed. Now we have institutions and then huge companies hedging bitcoin in their balance sheet. It's us retail that should take advantage of it and again, we should be looking for the future.

Lanatsa

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Quote from: jjdub7 on April 13, 2021, 02:52:48 PM

Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

Personally, I think the same is that with the growing interest of institutions and the large capital they are pouring into Bitcoin and the crypto world, small investors will have less and less opportunity to buy Bitcoins because they will not be able to afford it.

Not able to afford it?

No doubt that its already expensive but doesn't mean that you would really need to buy bitcoin as a whole.We can always consider on buying a little fraction of it.

The thing we cant deny nor ignore that those big companies or institutions does have much more buying power because of financial capacity which its part of the reality where
there are small and big time investors.

Somehow even placed on lower tiers doesn't mean that you cant benefit out market movement situations.

jjdub7

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

Personally, I think the same is that with the growing interest of institutions and the large capital they are pouring into Bitcoin and the crypto world, small investors will have less and less opportunity to buy Bitcoins because they will not be able to afford it.

Innerpumper

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all scnario could have happened, But I think bitcoin had not reached 150k before the correction and became a light bear. I don't know if bitcoin can reach 6 digits within the next 5 years. But all the rich people started paying attention to it.

Leviathan.007

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Now after seeing bitcoin at a new ATH people can the price didn't fall and it was only a little correction which was really normal because the price had to save some more potential to reach the new price levels. As I can see this bull run is going to keep it going and prices like 70-50K is not really far. The interesting thing is now after a few weeks when the price is going to do another correction some people will again start panic and saying the price is going to fall, they don't understand the market is going to give them discount and thy have to use the opportunity.

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Quote from: Betwrong on April 12, 2021, 09:09:07 AM

I personally was expecting a correction when we reached $30k+, so now, knowing how wrong I can be, I'd rather agree with you regarding $150k.

Well the important thing to remember is the difference between a correction and a crash (or bubble burst).
A correction is small in size and in bitcoin world it it usually between 10 to 20% but it can go as high as 30% verging on being a crash.
A bubble burst on the other hand is massive in size and the duration of it is also very big. So far the bubble burst sizes has been around 80% and the duration is at least a year of bear market.

If you were expecting a correction after reaching $30k we did have it when price reached $34800 and dumped down to $27700 (a 20% correction) but the duration of it was short (about 3 days).
We didn't see any prolonged correction (that usually take 2 weeks to a month) because price was stuck below $20k for a very long time and the initial rise was accompanied by a massive FOMO.
We are in a similar situation right now too, price has been stuck in $50k range for nearly 2 months now and it is getting ready for another massive FOMO breakout.

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Quote from: pooya87 on April 11, 2021, 11:55:16 PM

Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again.

Their money is not suddenly lost or worth nothing to not be able to buy back again! Anyone can buy back with a small loss even if their expectation of a "massive dump" never happens. Like a couple of years ago when newbies were expecting price to dump down to $1000 and sold their bitcoin at $3500ish, they could have simply bought back the moment $4k was broken at a small 14% loss.

It would mean admitting their mistake, and more often than not people are so reluctant to do that. From my experience, people would rather lose money than admit they were wrong. But, of course this deconstructive behavior can't lead to anything good.

Quote from: pooya87 on April 11, 2021, 11:55:16 PM

In the case of next peak, if we reach the $400k-$500k ATH that is expected based on previous cycles, it would be a bubble and bubbles have no choice but to burst. But of course if price reaches $150k that is NOT a bubble and it is NOT going to dump big if dump at all.

I personally was expecting a correction when we reached $30k+, so now, knowing how wrong I can be, I'd rather agree with you regarding $150k.

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Not all the time the price of the bitcoin comes up to the peak sometimes we experience having a bought and this happens when the price of the bitcoin hype again to the top. I don't think if people today will lose their Bitcoin immediately and as we see there is a lot of speculation about the Bitcoin price.
Some say bitcoin will reach 80k.. Some say 100k++ and someone says it can exceed more than this so a strong hand will get the profit in the end. Now we can't see any bad news about bitcoin and it's a good sign for another bull run.

davis196

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

I think that most of the cryptocurrency traders have learned their lessons the hard way,so they won't fall again into the panic selling trap.Even if a small price correction occurs,most of the traders will just HODL.
A huge price crash will happen,only if there is some major government FUD attack or some institutional investor mass selling BTC.Those two events are highly unlikely to happen in the short term.
The "bears" aren't "punishing" anyone.They are just taking advantage of a decreasing price. Grin

pooya87

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again.

Their money is not suddenly lost or worth nothing to not be able to buy back again! Anyone can buy back with a small loss even if their expectation of a "massive dump" never happens. Like a couple of years ago when newbies were expecting price to dump down to $1000 and sold their bitcoin at $3500ish, they could have simply bought back the moment $4k was broken at a small 14% loss.

In the case of next peak, if we reach the $400k-$500k ATH that is expected based on previous cycles, it would be a bubble and bubbles have no choice but to burst. But of course if price reaches $150k that is NOT a bubble and it is NOT going to dump big if dump at all.

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

The bears of older times wouldn't be that worst when those predicted scenario tend to exist in future. Somehow, we still need to be more careful even though there's small chance, because if we're too confident losses and risk might fail us.
Always set a limit for your trades, and don't expect too much so it's better to keep a close monitoring on those asset that you're holding.

maxreish

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Thats the given scenario we usually experienced. When bitcoin price reach up like double to its previous price, one of the reasons is that institutional investors tend to buy more bitcoin. 70% or more corrections are hard to hit by now. And you have a point that those who are planning to sell their bitcoin at this current price will be hard for them to rebuy at the lowest price like the price before. But then there are tons of indicators that guides us to know which price we should buy at the lower point.

On the other hand, other investors are waiting for that small corrections so they might buy again since bitcoin is showing massive bullish signs this year.

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But I believe that these institutional investors are already prepared for this to come. All of us are expecting this, Bullish season turns to bearish market, it happens in the past and therefore, we can surely experience this again and again. It seems the cycle continues but the problem is we never know when, that gonna be a puzzle.
But most of the time our expectations fail, the market keeps on growing, people also continue buying, and these huge changes come for me to think that if ever there is market correction it is not the same as what happens in the previous years. Where not possibly be going down hard.

blockman

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If they can no longer buyback, they have an option to reinvest it to another crypto that they trust and think has a good future too. There are plenty of those only if they are that type of investor. But if they aren't, that's too bad for them if they're not going to buy back bitcoin.
Another option is to reinvest the cash they've took to another asset but no longer in crypto but in other traditional assets like real estate, bonds, stocks, gold, etc.

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In order for the market to remain healthy, there has to be an aggressive correction at one point, and I am sure it will happen. Institutions joining into the train does not mean they won't want to sell of Bitcoin at one point in order to make profits.

Institutions won't be HODLers like the early adopters who believed in Bitcoin and wanted it to live long. They are here to make money not to ensure that the network keeps alive for 100 years plus.

pixie85

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You're right, OP

People expect a big correction but it could never come. Like when we had that correction from 60 to 40 thousand. This may be the new normal and we'll have another peak followed by a 40% correction and so on.

The only thing that makes me rethink your idea is the logarithmic band that Bitcoin follows. We aren't at it's peak yet, but if there are peaks there will be lows. We are going to hit a level people will see as rock bottom, but it won't be so. Just like 2018 was not the ultimate peak and 2019 was not the real bottom.

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I really don't mind about the price correction anytime because Bitcoin was built for long-term results. Prices are unpredictable these days and they can pump or dump without warning. There are so many corrections that were happened through the years. Believe me, BTC will rise again despite so many price correction events.

aesma

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If you sell at "a top" with the view to buy back, then you must only sell an amount you're fine not buying back if you're wrong. Otherwise don't take chances and don't sell.

I agree that with institutional money now in, a very large drop is quite unlikely.

ene1980

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time.

Everyone thinks that the market will ride a certain way but it is not that easy to determine how long the market will rally and what will be the bottom once the bear market starts. The investors you are talking about are here to make the profit and they will be having a set target in mind and once that is reached they will book their profit and till now i am expecting a good correction by the end of this year or next year. Even if the market did not correct 70% there is nothing much we can do, just move on and if you can plan on investing again for the next rally you will invest irrespective of the price.

BIT-BENDER

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I think there has been price corrections even in the bull run, but it wasn't to challenge the present bull run I don't know when the bull run will come to an end but I am predicting that the price correction won't make the price significantly go low, not until we see a terrible turn of fortune and enter a bear run market.

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Adopted does not mean that instituational investors do not want to sell their bitcoin. Bitcoin maybe a long term investment to this companies but it can also a short term investment to others. Therefore, if they decide to sell-off to take profit, it can take off the big bear run. Everything is capable to happen. That is why we have seen term like Blackswan or Recession.

So in order to avoid such catastrophe, try to manage your money well by splitting your capital to 2-3 parts and put them in other investment. Gold and stocks are all quality asset to concern. I have seen many stocks gain a strong momentum.

yhiaali3

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This scenario already exists due to the fact that many large institutions and companies have bought a large amount of Bitcoin, so they will not allow the typical correction to occur 70-90%, and it is likely that the correction will be in the range of 30-40% only, because the entrance of the big players to the market changed many of the rules of the game and does not Typical things can be expected to happen as they did in the past.
In short, we can say that many of the market rules have changed and it is not possible to predict what will happen in the following periods, and it is not possible to measure based on Bitcoin's historical path because many things have changed.

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

The huge money that was invested was when the price was less than 30 thousand dollars. These investors know what they are doing and when to do so, so they make profit when they want to buy and not sell.
Bitcoin will return to a 50% to 80% correction to ensure that it stabilizes the higher levels of the price.

fiulpro

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Quote from: veznata on April 11, 2021, 12:39:32 PM

People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

I do not think that the institutional investors are going to let this opportunity slip , the opportunity I am talking about is about even the slightest correction. They will panic buy since now it's not just about making profits but rather it a symbol of a developing company itself, since now we have all the big IT companies investing in bitcoins, it's now going to be a very big contributor in determining the value of Company itself. If you are lucky to accumulate some , then do ! The price is just going higher and higher and the beer market has no leashes here. But all I know if we can make profit at any price since you can just hold for a longer amount of time. Therefore do not worry about slight changes in the price . Plus panic selling would happen no doubt but that also is an opportunity for people to buy more !

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You would expect institutional buyers to have stronger hands but who knows. Bitcoin is much more established now so hopefully people don’t panic sell. Let’s face it, fiat currencies aren’t exactly enticing to dive back into.

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People try to guess this cycle BTC price peak and we all know that prices in the 6-digit range is mentioned. but what i am afraid of this time is something different. let's say we reach 150-300K max but after that we don't see the typical 70-90 % correction that most people expect to happen again. in this case people who will sell will most likely not be able to buy back again. due to the big money invested by institutions and larger scale adoption the bear could be less punishing than prior bears this time. i think about this possible scenario. what's your thought on this guys?

Topic: small price correction after this bullrun (Read 717 times)